Tag: war

Please Don’t Go!

NATO is begging Türkiye to stay in NATO even if it joins BRICS:

Türkiye has the right to cooperate with the BRICS economic group without undermining its status as a NATO member, the secretary-general of the US-led military bloc, Mark Rutte, has said.

The NATO chief’s remarks came at a press conference in Estonia on Tuesday. He was asked by the Estonian Public Broadcaster whether Ankara’s desire to become a member of BRICS, which the outlet described as a “Russia-dominated organization,” should be a cause for concern.

Rutte stressed that Türkiye remains “a very important ally in the alliance” as it is “one of the best equipped military forces in NATO” and plays a “vital role in its part of the NATO geography.”

“Obviously within the alliance, being a democracy, 32 countries, there will always be debates on this and that,” the secretary-general admitted. However, he insisted that Ankara has “the sovereign right” to work towards a BRICS membership and cooperate with its members.

The real question is if BRICS will permit the Turks to join if they remain in NATO. And the jury is still out on that one.

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The Leak was Real

Apparently Israel was genuinely observed making preparations to attack Iran on October 15th and 16th, but appears to have cancelled the attack for reasons that remain unknown, but are presumably related to the “earthquake” that was observed earlier this month.

The US has launched an investigation after highly classified intelligence reports about Israel’s preparations for possible strikes on Iran were leaked online, CNN reported on Saturday, citing three people familiar with the matter. The apparent security breach occurred amid an intense standoff between Iran and Israel – which has vowed to respond to a barrage of missiles fired by Tehran earlier this month.

On Friday, two documents were posted to the anonymous Telegram channel Middle East Spectator, which covers events in the region and is critical of Israel.

The first of the files, apparently prepared by the Pentagon’s National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, says the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) “continued key munitions preparations and covert UAV activity on October 16 almost certainly for a strike on Iran.”

The second document contains a detailed report about a “large-force employment exercise” conducted by the Israeli Air Force on October 15-16.

An unnamed US official confirmed the authenticity of the documents to CNN, describing the leak as “deeply concerning.” The official told the network that the ongoing probe is aimed at determining who had access to the top secret files that eventually made their way to social media.

The plan reportedly involved a combination of ballistic missiles and air-to-surface missiles, although considerably fewer than were involved in the Iranian attack on Israel. Which, of course, tends to raise suspicions that some of them may have been armed with nuclear warheads, and may explain why the US intelligence source decided to try to stop the attack by leaking news of it.

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Trump Declares War Lost

It would have been better if he’d said this two years ago, when the inevitable outcome was already obvious. But it’s still helpful to prevent the Kiev regime trying to fight to the last Ukrainian.

Former US President Donald Trump has declared that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has already “lost” the conflict with Russia. The Republian candidate also accused President Joe Biden of ‘provoking’ the fighting in the first place.

“That war is a loser,” Trump said on the PBD Podcast, on Thursday, criticizing Zelensky as a “great salesman” who repeatedly secured billions in US aid without securing victory. Trump added that the conflict could have been avoided had he remained in charge after the 2020 election.

Trump also blamed Biden for escalating tensions with Russia, claiming that his statements ahead of the Moscow launching its miliatry operation were the “exact opposite” of what should have been said. He also expressed confidence that he could resolve the issue swiftly if returned to office in November’s vote.

I have no doubt that President Trump can quickly negotiate an end to the war. Russia has no interest in controlling Western Ukraine, they simply don’t want to permit Clown World to do so. It’s very unfortunate that Finland and Sweden have joined NATO, because that creates an issue that will require resolution before Russia can be reasonably expected to stand entirely down.

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KIA Confirmed

Hamas has confirmed yesterday’s IDF reports of the death of its leader, Yahya Sinwar:

The Palestinian militant group Hamas has acknowledged the death of its leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza, praising him as a “holy warrior” and “fallen martyr.”

The announcement was made by a senior Hamas official, Khalil Hayya, in a televised address on Friday. Sinwar has “sacrificed his life to the cause of our liberation,” Hayya stated, describing the late leader of the group as a “steadfast, brave and intrepid” man.

So, if the “head of the snake” strategy works, the deaths of Sinwar, al-Arouri, Haniyah, and Sharif should bring a rapid end to Israel’s war against the Palestinians in Gaza. However, the dichotomy between the way the IDF and Hamas describe Sinwar’s death tends to cast doubt on the two sides being able to even share a similar perspective.

  • He met his end standing brave, with his head held high, holding his firearm, firing until the last breath, until the last moment of his life.
  • How Israel slaughtered the Butcher: Rookie soldiers stumbled across Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, engaged in gun battle, tracked him down as he cowered in empty building… then blasted it with a tank.

I’ve never seen the point in constantly attempting to portray the enemy as some sort of coward. A suicide bombing targeting civilians is certainly much more evil and malicious than a Medal of Honor-winning soldier heroically jumping on a grenade to save his squadmates, but is it any less courageous? I don’t think so.

A false portrayal of the enemy not only smacks of weakness, but violates Sun Tzu’s admonition to know the enemy. Which is why I think the IDF may have made another PR mistake by publicizing the video of Sinwar’s last moments. Throwing a stick at a drone might be pointless, perhaps even a bit pathetic, but it is a final act of defiance of the sort that most warriors will tend to admire. It reminds me of a poster that I wanted when I was young, which my parents wisely refused to let me buy for my bedroom.

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The Well Runs Dry

France and Germany are throwing in the towel on Ukraine. Not all at once, of course, but the writing is clearly on the wall.

The heavyweights of Europe — France and Germany announced a reduction in funding for Ukraine. Not far from the time when The EU will also abandon anti-Russian sanctions, the observer is sure Pravda.Ru Lyubov Stepushova.

France, which promised assistance to Ukraine in the amount of 3 billion euros this year, reduced it by 1 billion, that is, by a third. This is caused by problems in the budget — its deficit for 2024 may amount to about 6% of the country’s GDP, which is unacceptable, according to EU rules. French Defense Minister Sebastian Lecorniu in an interview with Politico clarified that he does not plan to request additional funds from the parliament for Kiev by the end of this year.

Germany has also cut aid to Ukraine by half since the new year. According to German media, according to the budget for 2025, it will decrease from 7.1 billion euros this year to 4 billion euros next year.

It would be much better to make Ukraine go cold turkey and put pressure on the Kiev regime to surrender unconditionally instead of pointlessly wasting more Ukrainian lives in a futile effort to maintain a false posture that will neither fool nor impress the Russians into settling for less than they believe they require for a lasting peace. In the aftermath of the NATO expansion and Minsk betrayals, Russia is not in a hurry to reach any sort of settlement that is simply going to lead to another war in a decade when its position might be less advantageous.

The undeniable military reality is that Ukraine has to accept whatever Russia decides to demand; only then can the massive work of attempting to rebuild a smaller and less ambitious Ukrainian state begin. The other option is that Russia will simply continue its war of attrition until Kiev falls to its forces, so the sooner Kiev surrenders, the better for everyone.

1.8 million casualties, of which 780,000 are KIA since February 2022. And for what? About the only substantive accomplishment was permitting Kiev to serve as a massive short-term money-laundering center for the global elite.

The inflexion point has been reached. The Pax Americana, the neo-liberal world order, and the post-WWII era have ended. The locii of power have shifted from London and Washington to Moscow and Beijing. This is the new global reality. This is now the context in which all geopolitical and military and economic policies must be understood.

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End Game in Ukraine

It’s all but over for the Kiev regime. It’s taken Berlin 31 months to recognize the obvious, but the Germans, which means the Europeans, have finally given up on the idea of winning Clown World’s proxy war on Russia. The right thing to do would be to instruct Kiev to surrender and spare the lives of the Ukrainian soldiers whose sacrifice would be totally pointless at this point.

Germany has no more military hardware to offer Ukraine beyond what has already been pledged, even as Kiev remains hard-pressed by Russia on the front line, Bild reported on Saturday.

According to the outlet, the German Defense Ministry does not believe that Ukraine will be capable of launching “an offensive to liberate its own territory” in the near future.

The report also said, citing an internal document, that Berlin would no longer send “heavy weapons” to Ukraine, and that deliveries of this type of aid have been “completed.” The term applies to tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, self-propelled howitzers and similar hardware.

Russia obviously can, and will, grind it out until Kiev is flattened like Berlin was in 1945. But I doubt anyone who doesn’t belong to the Azov Brigade is going to be very interested in facing the increasingly capable Russian war machine, which history has repeatedly shown will continue to improve its abilities until it takes the enemy capital.

In the 19th century, the Russians took Paris. In the 20th century, the Russians took Berlin. In the 21st century, if they are forced to do so by NATO’s recalcitrance, the Russians will take Kiev, Berlin, and Paris. Fortunately, Putin understands the evils of empire and has no interest in following the disastrous lead of the British and US empires. So it would be much better for everyone if the inevitable were simply accepted, however bitterly, now instead of this time next year.

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Not Much News

You’d barely know there was an invasion of Lebanon at all based on the lack of media coverage of the ground war compared to the multiple big headlines of the continuing series of air strikes everywhere from Lebanon to Yemen, complete with the name and rank of the Hezbollah commander supposedly killed in the bombing. I don’t think we can necessarily read too much into that, except for two things.

  1. Where are the names and identities of all the Hezbollah commanders killed and captured on the ground?
  2. It’s usually not a good sign if one has to call in the reserves in the early stages of an offensive.
  3. The IDF has already committed more troops than it did in the 2006 war.

Israel has been conducting ground incursions into Lebanese territory. The Israeli military said a fourth division is now taking part in the incursion, which has expanded to the west, but operations still appear to be confined to a narrow strip along the border. The 146th Division, made up of reservists, had entered southern Lebanon, in an apparent escalation. 

The IDF committed five divisions to Gaza, where Hamas has been defeated but not pacified. The fact that it’s already committed four divisions to Lebanon, including a reserve division, in barely the first week of combat, doesn’t prove that things are not going well there, but does tend to suggest that they are not. I expect we’ll find out soon enough; if the IDF declares its limited objectives were achieved and withdraws before the end of October, that will imply that it was decisively defeated by Hezbollah.

On the other hand, if the IDF reserves rapidly proceed up to the Litani River and the missile barrages come to an end, we’ll know that it won the latest round. Everything else is just rhetoric.

UPDATE: Curiouser and curiouser. A conspiracy site was reporting that Israeli Defense Minister had been killed in the recent Iranian missile attack, along with a lot more people than Israel has admitted. I assumed it was the usual nonsense, but now I’m not so sure.

WASHINGTON, Oct 8 (Reuters) – Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has canceled a Wednesday visit to the Pentagon, the Pentagon said, as Israeli media reported Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wanted first to speak with U.S. President Joe Biden. The surprise cancellation on Tuesday comes amid soaring tensions between Israel and Iran as Israel weighs options to respond to Tehran’s missile attack last week, its second this year against Israel.

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Don’t Tell Them About the Helmets

Apparently it is now a “huge controversy” to display your nationality:

New York Jets head coach Robert Saleh sparked controversy during the team’s NFL game against the Minnesota Vikings in London on Sunday. The 45-year-old was spotted on the sidelines at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium wearing a Lebanese flag below the Nike logo on the sleeve of his team hoodie.

The night before Sunday’s game – the first of the NFL’s international fixtures this season – Israeli bombing continued on Beirut, the Lebanese capital, amid the Israel-Hezbollah war. The Hezbollah stronghold in south Beirut was hit by more than 30 strikes overnight, which were heard across the city, with smoke still seen billowing from the site after dawn, Lebanon’s official National News Agency said.

Saleh, who is of Lebanese heritage, previously wore a similar patch last October but his decision to bear the flag Sunday raised eyebrows as the anniversary of the beginning of the war in Gaza approaches.

Saleh is Lebanese. Naturally, he doesn’t support Israel invading and attacking his homeland. But he’s not doing anything more than EVERY SINGLE NFL PLAYER is doing; look at the back of their helmets. Most players have US flag stickers because they are US citizens, but foreign players wear the flags of their countries; there is a German tight end – I don’t recall which team – but he has a German flag on the back of his helmet.

If the NFL is smart, they’ll leave this one alone. Because you know Robert Kraft is just itching to turn every Sunday into a massive advertisement for supporting Israel’s wars against a) Palestine, b) Syria, c) Lebanon, d) Iran, and now e) Pakistan? I have to admit, I’m lost on the latter.

It’s too bad Martin van Creveld felt the need to suspend his blog in August, as it would be very good to get his thoughts on the matter as a military historian. I’ve been reading his intriguing history of Israel, The Land of Blood and Honey, and I suspect he might not be very optimistic about the way in which the Netanyahu regime has gone about waging its wars, which appears to be based upon a strategy of escalate, then escalate again.

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IDF Attacks Russia?

I assumed this report of an Israeli attack on a Russian air base in Syria had to be some sort of war-porn fiction.

ISRAEL is reportedly hitting “terrorist targets in western Syria and along the Syria coastline.”

So far they’ve hit in Latakia and Tartus, home ports of the Russian Mediterranean Flotilla.

Also the Russian Hmeimim Air Base.

The Russian ammo stockpile there is exploding.

Russian air defenses are reportedly firing at Israeli aircraft.

The strikes occurred an hour after the arrival of an Iranian plane belonging to “Qashim Fars” airline.

The source of the bombing is not yet confirmed, but it reportedly involved 30 missiles fired from naval battleships between 3:55 and 4:41 AM.

However, the mainstream reports do at least confirm that the IDF attacked a weapons depot “near” the Russian air base.

Israeli conducted strikes near the Syrian coast this morning, with explosions reported in the vicinity of the Russian-operated Khmeimim Air Base, near the city of Latakia. At this stage, it’s not clear if the Russian airfield was actually hit, deliberately or otherwise — which would be a first. Either way, however, the attacks represent a notable escalation in terms of Israel’s willingness to prosecute targets that are very close to this key Russian military facility in Syria and a major point of pride for Moscow.

Initial accounts from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a U.K.-based information office, describe attacks in the coastal Latakia province, with targets including an ammunition warehouse said to be near Jablah city, not far from Khmeimim Air Base. Weapons supplied by Iran and destined for Hezbollah, its Lebanese ally and proxy, often are delivered first to Syria, for onward transit to Lebanon. The suggestion here is that Iranian munitions headed for the militant group were targeted soon after they arrived in Syria.

So, it’s unclear. And while Russia Today doesn’t have anything about the attack – or near-attack – this announcement today may be related.

The Russian ambassador to Israel, Anatoly Viktorov, has urged Russian citizens to leave the Jewish state in view of the increasing tensions in the region.

They may have invented the word, but I find it very, very difficult to imagine that the Israelis would be so full of chutzpah that they would choose to go hot with the Russians. Even the US neocons have had more sense than to push for that. I mean, I don’t see how the IDF can even hope to handle the Iranians with or without the US military.

I sincerely hope this is an exaggeration, if not a complete fabrication.

UPDATE: It was an exaggeration. But it was pretty close, being only 1.5 kilometers away from the base.

Reports of the Russian Hmeimim Military Base being hit by an Israeli airstrike are false. We have geolocated the video and photo. The photo was taken from the second or third floor of ‘al-Salom Gym’, 35.3721083, 35.9250677, Jableh, Syria. The most likely areas of target are shown on the map as “1” and “2” – although the Russian base (shown on the map) is approximately 1,500 meters away from either target site.

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