Tag: war

Is the low-intensity violent squabbling over territory between Israeli Jews and Palestinian Arabs. Israeli Martin van Creveld provides his usual insightful perspective.

Several factors explain the low number of casualties. First, the rockets coming from Gaza are enormously inaccurate. They hit targets, if they do, almost at random. Second, the Iron Dome anti-missile defense system works better than anyone had expected.  The system has the inestimable advantage in that it can calculate the places where the rockets will land. Consequently it only goes into action against those—approximately one in five or six—that are clearly about to hit an inhabited area. The outcome is vast savings; in some cases, realizing that the incoming rockets are not going to hit anybody or anything, the authorities do not even bother to sound the alarm. Third, civil defense seems to be working well; people obey instructions and are, in any case, getting used to this kind of thing. Fourth, as always in war, one needs luck.

In turn, the small number of Arab casualties and the limited amount of damage inflicted has enabled the government of Israel to keep the lid on its own actions in the face of extremist demands. It suggests a degree of control and precision never before attained or maintained in any war in history. But while the Israelis have been extremely effective in avoiding collateral deaths, the impact of their strikes against Hamas’ short-range rockets in particular is limited.

Israel’s lucky run will not last forever.  Sooner or later, a Hamas rocket that for one reason or another has not been intercepted is bound to hit a real target in Israel and cause real damage. Imagine a school or kindergarten being hit, resulting in numerous deaths. In that case public pressure on the government and the Israel Defense Forces “to do something” will mount until it becomes intolerable.

What can the IDF do? Not much, it would seem. It can give up some restraints and kill more—far more—people in Gaza in the hope of terrorizing Hamas into surrender. However, such a solution, if that is the proper term, will not necessarily yield results while certainly drawing the ire of much of the world. It can send in ground troops to tackle the kind of targets, such as tunnels, that cannot be reached from the air. However, doing so will almost certainly lead to just the kind of friendly casualties that the IDF, by striking from the air, has sought to avoid.

Whether a ground operation can kill or capture sufficient Hamas members to break the backbone of the organization is also doubtful. Even supposing it can do so, the outcome may well be the kind of political vacuum in which other, perhaps more extreme, organizations such as the Islamic Jihad will flourish. Either way, how long will such an operation last? And how are the forces ever going to withdraw, given the likelihood that, by doing so, they will only be preparing for the next round?

And so the most likely outcome is a struggle of attrition. 

Now, consider that he wrote that in July, 2014….

It appears the active-duty military is very much inclined to back up the retired generals who warned the French globalists about the civil war their pro-immigration, pro-Muslim policies are creating:

A group of serving French soldiers have published a new open letter warning Emmanuel Macron that the ‘survival’ of France is at stake after the President made ‘concessions’ to Islamism. 

The letter published in the right-wing magazine Valeurs Actuelles late on Sunday echoes the tone of a similar letter printed in the same magazine last month which also warned a civil war was brewing and called for military action against ‘Islamists’.

French Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin, a close ally of Macron, slammed the letter as a ‘crude maneouvre’ and accused its anonymous signatories of lacking ‘courage’.  

The previous letter, signed by 1,000 people including serving officers and some 20 semi-retired generals, warned of the ‘disintegration’ of France because of radical Islamic ‘hordes’ living in the suburbs.

The explosive letter sparked a furore in France, with Prime Minister Jean Castex called the letter an unacceptable interference while France’s top general vowed that those behind it would be punished for the ‘absolutely revolting’ letter.

It is not clear how many people are behind the current letter or what their ranks are – and their anonymity is likely to due to the backlash faced by the authors of the previous letter, with 18 officers who signed the letter facing disciplinary action.     

In contrast to the previous letter, it is also open to be signed by the public, with Valeurs Actuelles saying more than 93,000 had done so by Monday morning.

‘We are not talking about extending your mandates or conquering others. We are talking about the survival of our country, the survival of your country,’ said the letter, which was addressed to Macron and his cabinet.

The authors described themselves as active-duty soldiers from the younger generation of the military, a so-called ‘generation of fire’ that had seen active service.

‘They have offered up their lives to destroy the Islamism that you have made concessions to on our soil.’

The nations rise. Time is running out again on The Empire That Never Ended. Now you know why the politicians are so desperate to keep their lockdowns in place and prevent the wars that are rapidly approaching. It won’t take much of a spark to kick things off in any of over a dozen nations.

People tend to forget that the French military has been very active throughout Africa for decades. They’re small, but professional, and they’re not a joke. And they are very, very unhappy about the invasion of Paris by the African and Arab migrations. I’ve never been to South Africa, but the most apartheid-looking thing I’ve ever seen was in Paris, where a pair of French gendarmes carrying machine guns watched over dozens of Africans sprawling on the grass in Jardin Nelson Mandela. If you didn’t know better, you’d have thought they were prison guards.

When – not if – the generals begin to act, they will be greeted with rapturous support. Particularly by the young men, who hate the situation far more than Generation Xers can understand. All the We Are the World rhetoric as well as the concept of intrinsic white noblesse oblige are completely foreign Boomerspeak to them.

 Afghanistan wins again:

Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan attacked and overran a key army base in southeastern Ghazni province Saturday, capturing dozens of soldiers and killing several others.

The latest attack came on a day when the United States and NATO partners formally began withdrawing their militaries from the country after almost 20 years of war.

Two senior provincial council members told VOA the Afghan army had stationed dozens of its forces at the base outside the provincial capital, also named Ghazni, before the pre-dawn insurgent attack.  Local media reports said the ensuing clashes had lasted several hours and killed at least 17 soldiers.

 Afghan army chief, Gen. Mohammad Yasin Zia, who is also the acting defense minister, confirmed to reporters in Kabul the fall of the security installation to insurgents, but he shared no further details.

20 years of totally pointless war ending in defeat. It’s yet another reminder that the US empire is in its early death throes, not unlike those of its predecessors in the graveyard.

When you’re wounded and left on Afghanistan’s plains,

And the women come out to cut up what remains,

Jest roll to your rifle and blow out your brains

An’ go to your Gawd like a soldier. 

Very, very serious trouble:

United States will work with Ukraine to ensure that it meets the criteria for NATO membership, says the US Department of State just days before US Secretary of State’s visit to the country.

President Trump’s greatest accomplishment was keeping the USA out of the war with Russia that was in the cards if Hillary Clinton had been elected. Clinton had made it clear that she was going to invite Ukraine to join NATO, which was why there were Russian troops on the border prepared to render that a moot point before the invitation could be issued.

The Biden Not-Administration backed down two weeks ago when Putin ordered a similar mobilization, but now the neoclowns who run it are still attempting to push the issue. It’s a very, very bad idea, because Russia will not permit Ukraine to join NATO, and will make sure that there is no Ukraine to join it if necessary.

France may be about to learn that using the military’s standards against it is an effective way to convince the military to abandon its standards:

Eighteen French servicemen, who have been identified as signatories of a letter warning President Emmanuel Macron about a looming “civil war,” will come before a military court, the Armed Forces Chief of Staff said.

Each of the identified soldiers and officers would appear before a higher military council, the Armed Forces Chief of Staff, General Francois Lecointre, told Le Parisien. All of them would be subjected to “disciplinary sanctions,” with the harsher ones reserved for the most senior ranks, he added.

“I believe that the higher the responsibilities, the stronger the obligation of neutrality… is,” the general said. The chief of staff also said that those among the semi-retired generals who signed the controversial letter could potentially be forced to leave military service and go into full retirement.

“These generals will each appear before a higher military tribunal. Following this procedure, it will be the President of the Republic who will sign a decree on [their] retirement,” Lecointre said.

French defense minister threatens ‘sanctions’ against ex-generals behind open letter blasting Islamism and ‘suburban hordes’

Such a strong response was sparked by an open letter declaring the country is headed toward “civil war,” signed by several former high-ranking military personnel as well as “a hundred senior officers and more than a thousand soldiers.” The appeal published in the conservative ‘Valeurs Actuelles’ news magazine urged Macron to save the nation from Islamism and the “suburban hordes” of immigrants.

As always, the Promethean tactics are based upon subversion and lies. The military has a duty to defend the nation against invasion, which the enemies of the nation have subverted by redefining the nation as the state and redefining invasion as immigration.

But immigration is war. And prosecuting the messenger is never wise.

It appears the end of the Fifth Republic is approaching. It has already survived longer than three of its predecessors, and is unlikely to last as long as the Third Republic did.

Vladimir Putin issues a warning in the aftermath of Ukraine and the neoclowns that are pulling their puppet state’s strings backing down in response to Russia’s mobilization on its borders:

The meaning and purpose of Russia’s policy in the international arena – I will just say a few words about this to conclude my address – is to ensure peace and security for the well-being of our citizens, for the stable development of our country. Russia certainly has its own interests we defend and will continue to defend within the framework of international law, as all other states do. And if someone refuses to understand this obvious thing or does not want to conduct a dialogue and chooses a selfish and arrogant tone with us, Russia will always find a way to defend its stance.

At the same time, unfortunately, everyone in the world seems to be used to the practice of politically motivated, illegal economic sanctions and to certain actors’ brutal attempts to impose their will on others by force. But today, this practice is degenerating into something even more dangerous – I am referring to the recently exposed direct interference in Belarus in an attempt to orchestrate a coup d’état and assassinate the President of that country. At the same time, it is typical that even such flagrant actions have not been condemned by the so-called collective West. Nobody seemed to notice. Everyone pretends nothing is happening.

But listen, you can think whatever you like of, say, Ukrainian President Yanukovych or Maduro in Venezuela. I repeat, you can like or dislike them, including Yanukovych who almost got killed, too, and removed from power via an armed coup. You can have your own opinion of President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko’s policy. But the practice of staging coups d’état and planning political assassinations, including those of high-ranking officials – well, this goes too far. This is beyond any limits.

Suffice it to mention the admission made by the detained participants in the conspiracy about a planned siege of Minsk, including plans to block the city infrastructure and communications, and a complete shutdown of the entire power system in the capital of Belarus! This actually means they were preparing a massive cyberattack. What else could it be? You know, you cannot just do it all with one switch.

Clearly, there is a reason why our Western colleagues have been stubbornly rejecting Russia’s numerous proposals to establish an international dialogue on information and cyber security. We have come up with these proposals many times. They avoid even discussing this matter.

What if there had been a real attempt at a coup d’état in Belarus? After all, this was the ultimate goal. How many people would have been hurt? What would have become of Belarus? Nobody is thinking about this.

Just as no one was thinking about the future of Ukraine during the coup in that country.

All the while, unfriendly moves towards Russia have also continued unabated. Some countries have taken up an unseemly routine where they pick on Russia for any reason, most often, for no reason at all. It is some kind of new sport of who shouts the loudest.

In this regard, we behave in an extremely restrained manner, I would even say, modestly, and I am saying this without irony. Often, we prefer not to respond at all, not just to unfriendly moves, but even to outright rudeness. We want to maintain good relations with everyone who participates in the international dialogue. But we see what is happening in real life. As I said, every now and then they are picking on Russia, for no reason. And of course, all sorts of petty Tabaquis are running around them like Tabaqui ran around Shere Khan – everything is like in Kipling’s book – howling along in order to make their sovereign happy. Kipling was a great writer.

We really want to maintain good relations with all those engaged in international communication, including, by the way, those with whom we have not been getting along lately, to put it mildly. We really do not want to burn bridges. But if someone mistakes our good intentions for indifference or weakness and intends to burn or even blow up these bridges, they must know that Russia’s response will be asymmetrical, swift and tough.

Those behind provocations that threaten the core interests of our security will regret what they have done in a way they have not regretted anything for a long time.

The neoclowns will posture and prattle about the Russian leader’s idle threats even as they continue to bang their usual drums for ever more war in Syria, Iran, Ukraine, and the South China Sea. But it is increasingly obvious that it is the US empire, not the Russian republic, that is now writing checks its military cannot cash. 

I have to admit, I quite enjoyed the Kipling aside. Kipling was a great writer. I wonder what he would have made of being cited by a Russian leader standing against imperialism.

As Patreon has learned, poking the big bear is never a good idea.

QUESTION: At present, there are roughly 40,000 US-NATO troops massed along the Russian border conducting military exercises while scores of Russian tanks, artillery and an estimated 85,000 Russian troops are now located about 25 miles from Ukraine’s eastern border. Both armies are on hair-trigger alert and prepared for any sudden provocation. If the Ukrainian Army invades the Russian-speaking region of Ukraine (Donbas), Moscow will likely respond.

So, will there be a conflagration in the Ukraine this spring and, if so, how will Putin respond? Will he limit the scope of his campaign to the Donbas or push onward to Kiev?

ISRAEL SHAMIR: If the Russian army crosses the Ukrainian border, it won’t stop in the Donbas. The war will be brief and the Ukraine will be split into pieces. But will it happen?

Russia’s totem animal, the Bear, is a strong and peaceful animal that is not easily aroused, but once provoked, it is unstoppable. Russian rulers have typically fit this image. They weren’t adventurous, but level-headed and prudent. Putin, who is the quintessential Russian ruler, is risk-averse. He won’t start a war he never wanted to begin with, but he will act decisively if he needs to do so. Consider 2014, after the Ukrainian coup: the lawful Ukrainian president Mr Yanukovich ran to Russia and asked Putin to help him regain power. At that time, the Ukrainian army was weak and Russia could have easily retaken the country without facing any significant resistance. But, surprisingly, Putin did not give the order to take Kiev.

Putin is unpredictable. He ordered the seizure of Crimea despite the counsel of his advisors. It was an unexpected move, and it worked like a charm. He also pummeled Georgia in 2008 after Saakashvili invaded South Ossetia. This was another surprise move that succeeded better than anyone could have imagined. If the Ukrainians try to retake Donbas, the Russian army will beat them badly and continue on to Kiev. The presence of NATO’s troops will not deter Putin.

As for the Democrats, they can push Kiev to attack, but they will end up losing the Ukraine in the process. If the point is to poison relations between Russia and Europe, they can try to do so, but if they think the Russo-Ukrainian war is going to drag on, they’re mistaken. And if they think Putin won’t defend the Donbas, they’ve made a serious miscalculation.

I think Shamir’s perspective on the neoclowns is correct. Being bigtime bluffers themselves – literally everything they do is a bluff – they can’t imagine that everyone else isn’t bluffing. So, they assume that Putin is going to either back down, or at most, defend the Donbas in the same way South Ossetia was defended.

However, Putin and the Russian people now have considerably more experience of the neoclown foreign policy and better understand what Clownworld is. This was the key phrase of the interview, in my opinion: Russians think that a big war is unavoidable, so it’s probably better to have the Ukraine under Moscow’s control before that war breaks out. The US is an enemy; that is the feeling in Russia.  

I don’t know why anyone bothers even trying to make agreements with the US government. They’ve been breaking them regularly since the 18th century:

Since President Biden is breaking the US-Taliban peace deal by pushing back the May 1st withdrawal deadline to September 11th, the Taliban said it is ready to attack US troops again and turn the final months of Washington’s almost twenty-year-old war into a “nightmare.”

Mullah Salih Khan, a Taliban commander in the Helmand Province, told The Daily Beast on Wednesday that the group is prepared to strike “very much prepared to strike” US and Afghan government forces, warning that the Taliban will turn Afghanistan “into a nightmare” for them.

Mullah Mujahid Rahman, a Taliban subcommander from the Ghazni province, also said the group was ready to fight the US. He said the US has “proven they can’t be trusted after retreating from the May 1st deadline” and that the Taliban is willing to “fight till the end” of the US occupation. “We have the pride of defeating about 100,000 invaders from [different] countries in Afghanistan. A few thousand won’t be a problem at all,” he said.

Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid delivered a warning via Twitter on Wednesday. “If the agreement is breached and foreign forces fail to exit our country on the specified date, problems will certainly be compounded and those whom failed to comply with the agreement will be held liable,” he said.

The USA wasn’t always the Evil Empire. But it obviously is now. Although it’s more of a Retarded Evil Clown Empire Wearing a Dress Without Bothering to Shave Its Legs.

Even though Biden has, to a certain extent, backed down, The Saker is still concerned about the prospects of war over Ukraine:

Bad news all around today.  The US has just slammed provocative sanctions against Russia even though the US ambassador to Moscow was summoned to the Foreign Ministry and clearly told that if the US imposes more sanctions there will be no meeting between Putin and Biden.

Then there is this: the US has informed the Turkish authorities that they will not send two USN ships into the Black Sea.  This is politically a good sign, but in military terms, this is what the US should be doing if they were preparing for war.  Why?  Because any USN ship in the Black Sea at the moment of the initiation of a conflict would be sunk withing minutes: not only do the Russians have formidable missiles – Bal and Bastion – they had SIX advanced diesel-electric submarines of the 636.3 class ready to “greet” them.  Keep in mind that engaging submarines without air cover is another form of collective suicide.

So, the phone call was a deception and the US is still going down the road towards war with Russia.

In my professional opinion, what I see is a joint preparation by the Ukronazis and the USA (along with the UK and Poland) to attack the Donbass and force a conflict upon Russia.

It is very hard for me to see how a war could be avoided.

UPDATE: Biden has just declared a national emergency in the USA in response to the Russian threat.  He will make a special address to the nation tonight.

I don’t have an opinion, simply because I have no confidence about who is actually calling the shots behind the scenes of the Biden Not-Administration. If it’s China or the neoclowns, there will be war. If it is the US military, there will not be war.

Biden, of course, has no idea what is going on. The question is, who is writing his script? 

The neoclowns are belatedly beginning to realize that a proxy war with Russia over Ukraine is not going to end well for them or their clown-puppet regime:

Ukraine has warned Russia that it will bear ‘very painful’ consequences if it invades as Vladimir Putin continues to mass his forces in eastern Europe. Dmytro Kuleba, the country’s foreign minister, added that Moscow is ‘openly’ threatening Ukraine with ‘destruction’ by stationing 80,000 troops along its border – with more arriving every day.

He issued the warning following a meeting with the foreign ministers of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia – NATO allies in the region – saying ‘the four of us condemn the exacerbation of the situation by Russia.’ 

‘The world is on the side of Ukraine and international law, and this is one of the elements of restraining Russia from reckless actions,’ he added.

He spoke as Joe Biden prepares to slap sanctions on Russia in response to bounties put on American troops in Afghanistan, attempts to interfere in US elections, and the SolarWinds cyber attack of federal government data which US intelligence services blame on Moscow. Sanctions are likely to include the expulsion of 10 Russians from the US including diplomats, extending a ban on US banks trading Russian sovereign debt, and targeted measures against 30 Russian entities, US media reported, saying the move could happen as soon as today.

In response, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that Mosow will respond in kind to any ‘illegal’ sanctions, adding that it ‘will not help’ the prospect of talks between Biden and Putin. He added that it is ‘too early’ to talk about de-escalating tensions along the Ukraine border despite Biden’s calls for restraint earlier in the week….

In another sign that Biden is now softening his tone towards Moscow, the deployment of two US destroyers into the Black Sea was cancelled last night.

Turkey had originally confirmed that Washington had asked for permission for two warships – the USS Donald Cook and USS Roosevelt – to transit through straits which it polices and into the Black Sea in a move that was assumed to be a deterrent to Putin.

But last night Turkey said the U.S. Embassy in Ankara had notified the foreign ministry of the decision, without giving a reason. U.S. officials were not immediately available for comment. 

Once more, we see Vladimir Putin demonstrating the difference between influence and power. It’s all fun and games until someone sends 100,000 troops supported by air, armor, and artillery on your border. However, it’s important to note that the USA is now clearly in a state of cold war with both Russia and China, only this time the economic, technology, and demographic trends are not in its favor.