Tag: war

Russia’s Warning

Russia hit Ukraine with an ICBM containing multiple conventional warheads in response to the long-range strikes by the USA and the UK on its territory. The message is clear: next time, these might not be conventional warheads and they might not be hitting Ukraine.

However, the willingness of the Clown World leaders to risk nuclear war does tend to suggest that Big Bear and the other nuclear skeptics might be correct. What if they’re not crazy, they’re simply willing to blow the cover off the official story and allow the world to discover the nonexistence of nuclear weapons? That’s what Occam’s Razor would suggest, anyhow.

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Ethnic Cleansing and Annexation

First Gaza, now the West Bank. Seymour Hersh reports that Israel is going to attempt to annex the West Bank before President Trump takes office in January:

Israel, fortified by bombs and funding from the Biden administration, is escalating the forced evacuation of hundreds of thousands from the north of Gaza to the south, amid fierce bombing and the deprivation of food and water for those who stay behind. This is continuing amid marches and other demonstrations sponsored by the religious right in Israel whose leadership also is calling for north Gaza to be turned over to Israeli settlers. What was a worrisome rumor in Gaza more and more seems like a reality.

Control over all of Gaza and the West Bank is the core demand of the religious right in Israel that now dominates the government. I was told this week by a well-informed Washington official that the Israeli leadership will formally annex the West Bank in the very near future—perhaps in two weeks—in the hope that the decisive step will end, once and for all, any talk of a two-state solution and will convince some in the skeptical Arab world to reconsider financing the planned reconstruction of Gaza.

It’s fascinating to see how many of the parties that have been aggressive over the last three years are getting even more aggressive as the clock runs out on Clown World. I don’t see this working out as smoothly as the Netanyahu regime might be hoping, assuming that the report is real and not just a trial balloon.

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Germany Suicides Even Harder

It’s very, very difficult to imagine what the NATO mouthpieces currently pretending to run Germany think they’re going to accomplish by threatening to suicide Germany even harder by throwing its young men and women on the same altar they’ve sacrificed the German economy:

Now Germany reveals plans to mobilise national defence and 800,000 NATO troops after Kremlin nuke threat – as US announces new weapon Kyiv can use to stop Russia after allowing long-range missile strikes.

Ukraine’s strike on an ammunition depot in Russia’s Bryansk region yesterday with US-supplied ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) meets these criteria, with Moscow saying that it marks a ‘new phase of the Western war’. ‘This is, of course, a signal that they want to escalate,’ Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said, while foreign intelligence chief Sergei Naryshkin said attempts by NATO countries to facilitate Ukrainian missile strikes deep inside Russia ‘would not go unpunished’.

In Eastern Ukraine, Russia’s forces are steadily grinding towards the logistics hub of Pokrovsk having taken large swathes of territory in the Donetsk region in recent months. Putin’s army took 185 square miles of Ukrainian territory in October, a record since the first weeks of the conflict in March 2022, according to an analysis of data provided by the real-time conflict tracker from the Institute for the Study of War.

Now, where are those “800,000 NATO troops” going to come from? Not Poland, the Scandinavian countries or the Baltics. They’re talking about US troops, mostly, but there is no way President Trump is going to send more US troops to Germany; he’s far more likely to withdraw all the troops that are already there.

Simplicius points out that the IMF, the World Bank, and the CIA have now all confirmed that Russia is decisively winning its war with NATO and its member states on economic terms as well as in the military context.

A couple months back, you may recall World Bank announced that as per their calculations, Russia had finally surpassed both Germany and Japan in GDP PPP. However, the official IMF and CIA figures still scoffed at this, with Russia trailing both countries on their counts. This allowed the popular narrative to be maintained that the World Bank figures were some kind of inaccurate fluke or anomaly.

Well, the IMF has just done their latest report and has officially concluded that Russia has blown past both Germany and Japan as of 2024, and is now the number four economy in the world. And not only that, but the IMF has Russia in the lead by an even larger margin than World Bank. On top of which, the CIA also updated their numbers and likewise reflects Russia at the number four position.

This means that the longer Germany persists in its futile denial of the need to stop supporting Ukraine and encourage it to surrender, the worse off the Germans and the other Europeans will be. Time, attrition, and economics are all on the side of the Russians, and more importantly, their allies in China, North Korea, and Iran.

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The Macgregor Plan

Col Douglas Macgregor’s five-point plan for updating the US military for its actual 21st Century challenges:

Toward a New National Military Strategy

For real and meaningful reductions in the current $1 trillion national defense budget to occur, national command authorities must alter the nation’s strategic focus. New national security legislation must move the posture of U.S. forces away from military interventions focused on nation-building, democratization, or alleged threats. Instead, the defense posture should focus on the Western Hemisphere, learning to avoid patterns of behavior antithetical to U.S. interests.

The following five points offer the foundation for a new national military strategy that is both affordable and sustainable within the new multipolar, international system of the 21st century:

            •          Defend America First: Reserve the use of American military power for defense of the United States in the Western Hemisphere. Secure U.S. borders, coastal waters, and airspace. Military power may be used to defend American citizens and identified vital strategic interests at home and abroad. However, unless the United States’ vital strategic interests or territory are directly attacked, Washington will avoid the use of force.

            •          Maintain Strategic Military Power: Ensure U.S. freedom of action in areas of strategic importance by preserving and enhancing the American military’s core capabilities. Identify, defend, and maintain critical lines of communication and a reduced number of overseas bases needed for the execution of these tasks.

            •          Declare a “No First Use” Doctrine for Nuclear Weapons: Maintain the scientific-industrial capacity to wage high-end conventional warfare and build nuclear weapons, but recognize that the alleged advantage of striking first with nuclear weapons is illusory. Preventive or preemptive war is unwise and immoral and should be excluded from American military strategic planning.

            •          Establish an Operational National Defense Staff: Develop, update, and implement a refined Unified Command Plan to dramatically reduce unneeded overhead and improve the U.S. Armed Forces’ responsiveness to national command authority. This action requires legislation to place a “Chief of Defense” in the chain of command with real authority, not just advisory responsibility.

            •          Build New Armed Forces for the 21st Century: America needs a strong military designed to protect the United States in the 21st century, not an anachronistic and expensive industrial-age structure with enormous overhead and few fighters.

The one thing I think is missing from the plan is addressing the strategic retardery that engulfs Washington. There are far too many military neophytes who don’t know the first thing about war, or even math, who are involved in establishing the USA’s military goals. Perhaps starting with banning all dual-citizens from being permitted any involvement in military planning or geopolitical strategy would be a good start.

It doesn’t matter how excellent all the other aspects of the military are if you’re going to permit a few ambitious Peruvian-Americans to direct all US military assets to serve the interests of Peru.

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Should Have Stayed Neutral

Swedes are rapidly discovering that a) listening to their government is foolish and b) joining NATO has only reduced their national security by putting them at risk of being nuked.

Sweden is sending out five million pamphlets to residents urging them to prepare for the possibility of war, with instructions on how to stockpile food and even seek shelter during a nuclear attack, as fears grow of a conflict between Russia and NATO. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Stockholm has repeatedly urged Swedes to prepare both mentally and logistically for a possibile conflict, citing the worsening security situation in its vicinity.

The booklet ‘If Crisis or War Comes’, sent out by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB), contains information about how to prepare for emergencies such as war, natural disasters, cyber attacks and terrorism.

‘An insecure world requires preparedness. The military threat to Sweden has increased and we must prepare for the worst – an armed attack,’ its new introduction states. In one of the more worrying excerpts, which harks back to advice given by governments during the darkest days of the Cold War, it informs people of the risk of nuclear weapons.

If they’d simply stayed neutral, they wouldn’t have to worry about going to war with a nuclear power. But, when you’re dumb enough to sign up for war as a US proxy, well, you’re going to assume a level of risk that you’re simply not going to be able to handle.

As Henry Kissinger once observed, while being an enemy of the USA is dangerous, to be its friend is fatal. NATO has not, cannot, does not, and will not protect anything.

If a small nation wants to stay out of a large war, neutrality is always its best bet. See: Portugal, Spain and Switzerland during WWII.

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History in the Making

I am awed and dumbstruck at the opportunity to witness something this significant and epic, even if it’s only on video.

Drone wars: Russian net-throwing drone intercepts Ukrainian net-throwing drone. Perhaps the first duel of its kind.

Imagine having been able to witness the first manned aerial duel during WWI. This may have been the first unmanned air duel in human history, and soon we’ll probably be able to see the first AI air combats. That’s not the only callback to WWI, as another thing to note is the terrain below, which is so cratered by shells that NASA could fake another Moon landing there.

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The NYT Throws in the Towel

It appears this “permission” granted to Ukraine for long-range strikes with US and UK missiles, which would seemingly necessitate US providing the satellite targeting data for the attacks, is little more than another lame negotiating ploy. Clown World clearly recognizes that it has lost the war, and is now simply trying to look strong in order to encourage Russia to settle for less than it might otherwise gain, as Simplicius breaks down a recent New York Times article.

The NYT piece is remarkable in its admissions. It says that Trump forcing Ukraine to give up land would look like a major defeat of the West, but no matter—the author writes it is necessary because Ukraine is being devastated and Putin has no reason to stop; finally reality dawns on them!

Despite flashes of spectacular success by Ukrainian forces, the Russian position has gradually strengthened, and there is no reason to expect Mr. Putin to lose the upper hand now. That may sound like defeatism, but it’s also realism. I believe it’s right to call Ukraine a proxy war, because I think it’s reasonable to conclude that the Biden administration has supported the war not only in deference to righteous Ukrainian determination to fight off Russia but also because the war was a chance to debilitate our enemy without directly engaging it. Now another cold winter bears down, and Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure is so bomb-wrecked that people are expected to endure daily blackouts of up to 20 hours through the dark and bitter months.

This bleak landscape contains the most extreme and tragic results of the power games that have been played out mercilessly on Ukrainian soil by greater powers. Both Russia and the United States have for decades exploited Ukraine’s internal divisions to undermine each other and jockey for regional influence, usually at the expense of ordinary Ukrainians.

The even bigger admission is the now naked truth that the war is in fact a proxy war, spurred on by NATO and the West. For the first time, MSM makes headway in acknowledging the West’s participation in the Ukraine’s exploitation, even if only by a halfway measure. The author even goes on to admit the Bush administration heavily backed the Orange Revolution of 2004, “shower[ing] the pro-Western groups with funding and training.”

This doesn’t mean that the Ukrainians won’t fire a few long-range missiles with US – or more likely, UK – assistance, probably at the Kursk pocket where the last vestiges of Ukraine’s best troops are being systematically eliminated in a vain attempt to hold on to some Russian territory as negotiating leverage. But Russia has sent a very clear signal that the time to surrender is now, as for the first time, it is striking hard at the electrical system that permits Western Europe to provide Ukraine with emergency electricity.

It finally happened—our questions on Russia and Putin’s resoluteness have been answered. After a nearly two-month hiatus of major long-range strikes on energy infrastructure, Russia struck back again last night with what’s again being called one of the largest strikes of the war, which not only reportedly utilized a fleet of 16 Tu-95s, but according to some sources even a wing of Tu-160s for the first time.

Protocol would have it that more systematic strikes like this would follow, weekly or so, for the winter campaign. Russian ISR would spend some time doing damage assessments then continue levying strikes on the areas which need further degrading.

Continuing the war at this point is simply irresponsible by any military perspective. The European governments that supported it have collapsed, the economies of the European governments that supported it are contracting – Volkswagen just closed three of its factories in Germany – and Russia is stronger in economic, political, military, and diplomatic terms than it was when the special military operation began. No amount of brave rhetoric or esoteric word magic is going to salvage anything positive from what was always a spectacularly stupid idea.

The age of the US military empire is over. It’s time to shut down the bases and bring home the troops to defend the borders and begin the mass repatriations that are so long-overdue. A nation that recognizes its imperial sell-by date and gives up its ambitions can still survive and thrive as a kingdom. See: Persia and Russia. An empire that refuses to admit that it is done eventually ends up being overrun by its former dominions. See: Great Britain.

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Clown World Wants WWIII

And they’ve only got two months to start it. But they’re definitely going to try.

President Joe Biden has lifted that ban on Ukraine’s use of US-supplied long-range missiles meaning the war-torn country can now strike deep inside Russia, sources say. The decision is a major US policy shift and comes as Biden is about to leave office and President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to limit American support for Ukraine and end the war as soon as possible.

Ukraine plans to conduct its first long-range attacks in the coming days, according to sources. The first deep strikes are reportedly likely to be carried out using ATACMS rockets, which have a range of up to 190 miles.

Biden allowing Volodymyr Zelensky’s forces to use US-supplied missiles for strikes deep into Russia has raised expectations for the UK to follow suit with its Storm Shadow missiles.

Putin has been clear that Russia will strike back against any nation that helps Ukraine fire missiles against it. One hopes the Russian response will be reasonably proportional, because these are acts of war that would justify anything, up to and including strikes on every US base in Europe.

This is why it was so important for Donald Trump to win the election. Imagine if these lunatics had four more years to operate.

UPDATE: Clearly Team Trump recognizes the gambit being played.

US President-elect Donald Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., lashed out at the Democrats following reports that ongoing President Joe Biden had allowed Ukraine to use American-made long-range missiles to strike internationally recognized Russian territory.

Trump Jr., who campaigned alongside his father during the 2024 presidential election and has been helping him pick members of his future cabinet, did not mince words on social media.

“The Military Industrial Complex seems to want to make sure they get World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives,” he wrote on X on Sunday. “Gotta lock in those $Trillions. Life be damned!!! Imbeciles!”

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The End of the Aircraft Carrier

World War II marked the end of the battleship. World War III is marking the end of the aircraft carrier:

Both of Britain’s aircraft carriers, which are said to serve as the backbone of the Royal Navy, would have major battlefield vulnerabilities in a potential conflict with a near-peer adversary, The Times reported on Friday, citing sources.

A defense source told the paper that the UK military had run a “whole load of scenarios” simulating a full-scale conflict, in which the navy’s “ability to survive” was tested against an “overwhelming force.” The war games, the details of which are secret, involved HMS Queen Elizabeth – the fleet’s current flagship – and HMS Prince of Wales, which were commissioned in 2017 and 2019, respectively.

Designed to project UK power across the globe, both vessels can carry up to 40 aircraft, including advanced F-35B Lightning II stealth fighters, and can host helicopters for anti-submarine warfare as well as troop transports. A Times source familiar with the situation admitted that “in most war games, the carriers get sunk,” adding that the ships are particularly vulnerable to missiles.

It’s interesting that Russia still hasn’t demonstrated its objections to British support and funding for Ukraine by sinking one of these white elephants. Whereas sinking a US Navy carrier would provoke an unnecessary hot war with the USA, what is Britain going to do? Send the other one to the Baltic? And further support for Ukraine isn’t a threat since it’s already provided its long-range missiles to Russia.

This development has been obvious for some time, but it’s fascinating to actually reach this point in history. It will also be interesting to see if any carriers are actually sunk or if the navies of the world will simply stop producing new ships and maintaining the existing ones.

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No Rematch, Please

After seeing its aircraft carrier driven from the Red Sea from Yemen’s land-based missiles, it appears the US Navy has no taste for a rematch any time soon:

Houthi rebels are brandishing increasingly sophisticated weapons, including missiles that “can do things that are just amazing,” the Pentagon’s chief weapons buyer said at an Axios event.

The big picture: The militant group has for a year used drones and missiles to strangle waters off Yemen, disrupting international shipping.

Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment Bill LaPlante on Wednesday said the Houthis “are getting scary.” “I’m an engineer and a physicist, and I’ve been around missiles my whole career,” he said at the Future of Defense summit in Washington, DC. “What I’ve seen of what the Houthis have done in the last six months is something that — I’m just shocked.”

State of play: The group’s forces menace almost every ship passing by — civilian or military — and have even sent some to the seafloor.

Translation: there will be no naval war over Taiwan. If you have to be concerned about Yemeni land-to-sea capabilities, you’re not ready to fight off the coast of China. We’re effectively back in the days of the Age of Sail, when shore batteries trumped battleships.

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