Tag: sports

Football Outsiders offers a refresher course in NFL statisticology:

You run when you win, not win when you run.

The first article ever written for Football Outsiders was devoted to debunking the myth of “establishing the run.” There is no correlation whatsoever between giving your running backs a lot of carries early in the game and winning the game. Just running the ball is not going to help a team score; it has to run successfully.

There are two reasons why nearly every beat writer and television analyst still repeats the tired oldschool mantra that “establishing the run” is the secret to winning football games. The first problem is confusing cause and effect. There are exceptions, usually when the opponent is strong in every area except run defense, like last year’s New Orleans Saints. However, in general, winning teams have a lot of carries because their running backs are running out the clock at the end of wins, not because they are running wild early in games.

The second problem is history. Most of the current crop of NFL analysts came of age or actually played the game during the 1970s. They believe that the run-heavy game of that decade is how football is meant to be, and today’s pass-first game is an aberration. As we addressed in an essay in Pro Football Prospectus 2007 about the history of NFL stats, it was actually the game of the 1970s that was the aberration. The seventies were far more slanted towards the run than any era since the arrival of Paul Brown, Otto Graham, and the Cleveland Browns in 1946. Optimal strategies from 1974 are not optimal strategies for today’s game.

And yes, I am very, very nervous about going into the 2010 NFL season with The Tavaris Jackson Experiment as the confirmed backup QB to a man who is on the verge of entering George Blanda territory. Come to think of it, I’d be more comfortable if it was George Blanda backing up Favre and he’s 83 years old.

VPFL UPDATE: It shouldn’t be necessary to worry about the exclusions in the VPFL draft tonight. Yahoo has added the ability to specify keepers and I have done so for everyone. Blackmouth is not keeping anyone, the Meerkats have only one keeper, and Winston is keeping two. The other seven teams are all keeping three.

Your live online draft is set for Sat Sep 4 7:00pm CDT

We’re still missing Greenfield (White Buffalo), Alamo City (Clay) and Bane (Red). Get thee hence to Yahoo and register! Everyone else, make sure you’ve got your three keepers selected as your top three rankings. If you aren’t keeping three, then make sure that your third choice is NOT someone else’s keeper.

The coaches for the open spots were randomly selected and were then randomly assigned to teams. For the sake of continuity, we recommend you either change the team location or the nickname, but not both. An email with the league access information will be sent out shortly. The draft is September 4th, so post your three keepers here on or before September 1st otherwise one of the commissioners will choose your keepers for you. The draft will be in the reverse order of last year’s finish with the order flipping in each round.

The Meerkats will be keeping Aaron Rodgers, Visanthe Shiancoe, and either Chad Ochocinco or Austin Collie or Larry Johnson or Matt Forte while wondering how they made the playoffs last year.

Greenfield Grizzlies
Coach: White Buffalo

Bernard Berrian (Min – WR)
Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG – RB)
Tashard Choice (Dal – RB)
Braylon Edwards (NYJ – WR)
Greg Jennings (GB – WR)
Jeremy Maclin (Phi – WR)
Donovan McNabb (Was – QB)
Carson Palmer (Cin – QB)
Pierre Thomas (NO – RB)
LaDainian Tomlinson (NYJ – RB)
Carnell Williams (TB – RB)
Kellen Winslow (TB – TE)
Kris Brown (Hou – K)
Pittsburgh (Pit – DEF)
Seattle (Sea – DEF)

Winston Reverends
Jason Marianna

Joseph Addai (Ind – RB)
Antonio Bryant (Cin – WR)
Matt Hasselbeck (Sea – QB)
Vincent Jackson (SD – WR)
Peyton Manning (Ind – QB)
Hakeem Nicks (NYG – WR)
Greg Olsen (Chi – TE)
Darren Sproles (SD – RB)
Chester Taylor (Chi – RB)
Reggie Wayne (Ind – WR)
Roy Williams (Dal – WR)
Ryan Longwell (Min – K)
Matt Stover (Ind – K)
Dallas (Dal – DEF)
Green Bay (GB – DEF)

Bane Silvers
Red Cornett

Cedric Benson (Cin – RB)
Brent Celek (Phi – TE)
Donald Driver (GB – WR)
Brett Favre (Min – QB)
Calvin Johnson (Det – WR)
Marshawn Lynch (Buf – RB)
Brandon Marshall (Mia – WR)
Terrell Owens (Cin – WR)
Adrian Peterson (Min – RB)
Kevin Smith (Det – RB)
Kevin Walter (Hou – WR)
Kurt Warner (Ari – QB)
Mason Crosby (GB – K)
Kansas City (KC – DEF)
Philadelphia (Phi – DEF)

Black Mouth Curs
Josh

Marion Barber (Dal – RB)
Dwayne Bowe (KC – WR)
Steve Breaston (Ari – WR)
Dallas Clark (Ind – TE)
Jerricho Cotchery (NYJ – WR)
T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Sea – WR)
Mario Manningham (NYG – WR)
Laurence Maroney (NE – RB)
Knowshon Moreno (Den – RB)
Santana Moss (Was – WR)
Tony Romo (Dal – QB)
Jonathan Stewart (Car – RB)
Garrett Hartley (NO – K)
Baltimore (Bal – DEF)
New York (NYJ – DEF)

Alamo City Spartans

Miles Austin (Dal – WR)
Kevin Boss (NYG – TE)
Ronnie Brown (Mia – RB)
Jason Campbell (Oak – QB)
Fred Davis (Was – TE)
Andre Johnson (Hou – WR)
Maurice Jones-Drew (Jac – RB)
Eli Manning (NYG – QB)
Mike Sims-Walker (Jac – WR)
Alex Smith (SF – QB)
Jason Snelling (Atl – RB)
Wes Welker (NE – WR)
Beanie Wells (Ari – RB)
David Akers (Phi – K)
Arizona (Ari – DEF)

Valders Valkyries
MS Quixote

Anquan Boldin (Bal – WR)
Jay Cutler (Chi – QB)
Jermichael Finley (GB – TE)
Ryan Grant (GB – RB)
DeSean Jackson (Phi – WR)
Fred Jackson (Buf – RB)
Derrick Mason (Bal – WR)
Rashard Mendenhall (Pit – RB)
Ben Roethlisberger (Pit – QB)
Jeremy Shockey (NO – TE)
Steve Smith (Car – WR
Benjamin Watson (Cle – TE)
Dan Carpenter (Mia – K)
Denver (Den – DEF)
New England (NE – DEF)

Judean Front
Fitz

Drew Brees (NO – QB)
Marques Colston (NO – WR)
Pierre Garcon (Ind – WR)
Anthony Gonzalez (Ind – WR)
Tony Gonzalez (Atl – TE)
Steven Jackson (StL – RB)
Randy Moss (NE – WR)
Ray Rice (Bal – RB)
Steve Smith (NYG – WR)
Michael Turner (Atl – RB)
Ricky Williams (Mia – RB)
Vince Young (Ten – QB)
Rob Bironas (Ten – K)
Lawrence Tynes (NYG – K)
Minnesota (Min – DEF)

Masonville Marauders
Rob Bright

Deion Branch (Sea – WR)
Vernon Davis (SF – TE)
Antonio Gates (SD – TE)
Frank Gore (SF – RB)
Jerome Harrison (Cle – RB)
Santonio Holmes (NYJ – WR)
LeSean McCoy (Phi – RB)
Sidney Rice (Min – WR)
Philip Rivers (SD – QB)
Matt Schaub (Hou – QB)
Hines Ward (Pit – WR)
Roddy White (Atl – WR)
DeAngelo Williams (Car – RB)
Nate Kaeding (SD – K)
New Orleans (NO – DEF)

If you’re interested in participating, post your name and email here. Last year’s champions, the Alamo City Spartans, will be joining the permanent league members, Mounds View, Burns, and Greenfield. This year we will also permit the VP-AFL champion to participate, however, he will take over one of last year’s teams just like the other five newcomers.

In tangentially related news, inquiring minds are wondering why the Tarvaris Jackson Experiment is still listed as the Vikings starter.

Brett Favre’s stint with the Minnesota Vikings appears to be over after a single season. Favre has informed the Vikings he will not return to Minnesota this fall, a person with knowledge of the situation told The Associated Press on Tuesday.,

The 40-year-old Favre called coach Brad Childress to say his injured ankle is not responding as well to surgery and rehabilitation as he had hoped, according to the person, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the team had not made an official announcement.

I’ll believe it when I don’t see it at the end of training camp. Either way, that game against San Francisco alone was worth all the lunacy. I’m glad they didn’t trade for McNabb, but I would prefer to avoid a return to the Tarvaris Jackson Experiment.

Autopia asks:

What’s the fastest you’ve driven, what were you in (or on) and where were you when you did it? On a track, on a road, doesn’t matter to us. It’s not like we’ll call the cops.

155 MPH, 694, Porsche 944 Turbo.

I wasn’t surprised to see Holland defeat Uruguay; as I have repeatedly stated from the start, I expect the Dutch to claim the Cup due to their talent, teamwork, and discipline. However, Uruguay put up a great fight and also battled very hard against Germany in the third-place game. Much to my surprise, the Uruguayans became my favorite team to watch over the course of the tournament.

I was surprised that the Spanish managed to beat Germany, but in retrospect it should have been obvious because Spain has the advantage of starting essentially the same midfield that plays together for Barcelona whereas Germany’s midfield is much stronger on the attack than they are in retaining possession of the ball. This high level of familiarity is a huge advantage at the international level, where there is often the personnel problem of two premier players who happen to play basically the same role on their club teams, as is the case with Gerrard and Lampard of England. I assume this is why Ces Fabregas of Arsenal sits on the bench; it’s not that he’s not good enough to start at this level, but starting him would sacrifice one of Spain’s biggest advantages.

That being said, the Netherlands are better at the back and more disciplined than the Germans, whose 5 goals, (really 6, given Lampard’s non-goal), superficially look the same as the five given up by Holland, but two of those goals, by Uruguay and Brazil, came after the Dutch had already won the game and visibly relaxed. They also have a ball-controlling midfield that matches up better with Spain’s. I do very much dislike their tendency to coast at the end of the game when they have the lead, which appeared again in the semifinal and is probably the best reason to pick against them tonight. I prefer teams with a killer instinct, but the rivalry between Schneider and Van Persie combined with the bad form of Fernando Torres and the deadly dangerous left foot of Robben is enough to convince me that this Netherlands team will finally do what the Total Football and Bergkamp-led teams of the past could not and win the World Cup.

I have to confess that I am impressed with the Germans, though. Some of the finest and most intelligent individual actions I’ve seen in the tournament have been on the part of German players, Bastian Schweinsteiger’s idiotic insistence on playing around with the ball in dangerous positions notwithstanding. I love how their defenders are taught to turn around and run with the ball-handling attacker, thus preventing them from being outrun. And Mueller’s anticipation of the rebound from Schweinsteiger’s shot on goal was beautiful; every striker should closely watch how he begins his run towards the goal area as soon as the shot is taken. Being in the right place at the right time like that is not a matter of luck, it’s a straightforward matter of persistence and probability.

UPDATE: Spain 1, Holland 0. Okay, so I guess I got that one wrong. I thought the Dutch were fell apart tonight, the goalkeeper excluded. They really were a bunch of whiners to boot. Schneider seemed to be tired, while Robben was simply terrible in front of goal and blew at least four solid chances… I couldn’t believe it when he didn’t square the ball to a wide-open Van Persie, who could have practically walked the ball in. Unlike previous games, they weren’t putting shots on goal but were trying to dribble the ball in as far too many teams did this tournament. And the Spanish goal wasn’t even close to being offside, so I have no idea what the Dutch were crying about there.

Germany 4
Argentina 0

Germany underlined that their demolition of England was no fluke. They also showed that a world class team needs world class strikers who can actually finish; Miroslav Klose is at the forefront of a powerful and speedy attack that includes Podolski, Özil, and Schweinsteiger. Messi, on the other hand, demonstrated that he’s more of a ball-controlling midfielder than a true striker capable of finishing.

I have to say that the contrast between Maradona and Italy’s Lippi couldn’t have been greater. He was magnanimous in victory against Greece, prompting Spacebunny to wonder if he would be as sporting in defeat. But unlike the fraudulent Lippi, who disappeared into the locker room without a word of consolation to his players or a word of congratulations to the other team, no sooner did the whistle blow than Maradona was out on the field again hugging his players and offering a sincere hand to the other team, this time in congratulations. He is a deeply troubled man, but it’s heartening to see that on the field, he is still a champion.

As for the Ghana game, I am not surprised that the Black Stars found a way to lose it. Uruguay is mentally tough, very mentally tough, as was exemplified by Suarez watching the penalty as he walked backwards towards the locker room after his red card. A forward on the goal line, kicked out of the game, and he still hadn’t given up hope. Like the Americans, Uruguay doesn’t just play to the 90th minute, they fight and scrap and claw until the final whistle blows. I still can’t see them shutting down the high-speed Dutch attack, but the contrast between their relentless spirit and the inexcusable lapse in Dutch effort at the end of the Brazil game does make me think that an upset is not quite as impossible as I would have thought. I still expect the Netherlands to claim the cup, as I predicted at the beginning, but the Dutch should not make the mistake of looking ahead to Germanythe final.

Holland 2
Brazil 1

It’s a huge win for the Dutch, but since I picked them to win the Cup, I wasn’t the least bit surprised. Cesar’s goal-tending was shaky, as is the longstanding Brazilian tradition, and the Brazilian players simply didn’t have the self-confidence of their legendary predecessors. The game should probably have finished 3-1 if the Dutch hadn’t been so concerned about burning clock that they couldn’t put away a three-on-zero opportunity in injury time.

In the other game, I can’t see Uruguay having any trouble with Ghana.

Great game between England and Germany, well-worth the overwrought build-up. Germany is slashing through the English defense, but England was brutally robbed of a very clear goal by Lampard that was remniscent of the 1966 game-winner. I didn’t expect England to give Germany this much of a game, but it’s a really good one although without a solid performance by David James Germany would be leading 4-2… assuming that FIFA would stop disallowing goals scored.

More about the first round games later. The US loss was disappointing, but they played okay and Ghana well-merited the win.