Tag: Russia

A Warning to the EU

In response to Russia’s military victories in Ukraine, the desperate and unpopular leaders of the European Union’s member-states are getting increasingly bellicose with regards to Russia.

  • Berlin is prepared for a war with Moscow and stands ready to facilitate the deployment of 800,000 NATO troops towards the Russian border, the head of the nation’s joint operations command, Lieutenant General Alexander Sollfrank, has said.
  • Swedish Prime Minister calls for ‘long-term isolation’ of Russia. Ulf Kristersson has pledged to contribute to the military budgets of European NATO members, citing the alleged threat from Moscow.
  • The Belgian military has sent 149,000 letters to all 17-year-olds in the country, outlining the benefits and encouraging them to consider a year of voluntary service once they turn 18, Defense Minister Theo Francken has announced.

Which, I suspect, is why Russia has stepped up its campaign to turn off the lights and heat in Ukraine.

Last night Russia struck Ukraine with what is being called the largest ballistic missile attack of the entire nearly-four-year-long war. Ukraine’s main energy authority reported literally every one of their thermal power plants was down in the country amid widespread blackouts.

I think this was the most perspicacious take on the increased size of the attacks on the Ukrainian energy grid.

The purpose of the energy grid strikes isn’t to take out the grid, but to 1) create problems, tension and lots of busywork for the ukrainian rear, 2) bring the grid to the edge, to a point where a single strike package targeting 750 kVs and NPPs could take it out for real, 3) as a consequence of 2), be ready to escalate at a moment’s notice once a “third party” comes into play. I think people severely underestimate how much Russian planning goes into preparing for the eventual open NATO/EU entry into the war. it’s also a demonstration for the latter to disincentivize that. “look at how much stuff in europe we could be blowing up every single night and there’s nothing you could do against it, so stay the fuck out”

Neither 800,000 troops nor universal military drafts can protect the European states against Russia destroying all of their electrical grids and literally putting Europeans right back into the dark ages without risking a single Russian soldier’s life. The fundamental vulnerability of Europe was revealed by the Germans’ foolish decision to stop buying Russian gas, and the intrinsically industrial nature of attritional 5GW illustrates how shutting down the grid is directly related to eliminating a military’s ability to produce the drones it needs to fight.

NATO not only cannot hope to win a war with Russia, but the advent of 5GW means that NATO cannot even defend the European standard of living against a Russian decision to reduce it to below the first-world standards of the last fifty years.

Ukraine has already been reduced to moving its drone factories outside of Ukraine in order to keep manufacturing them. Russia is now making it very clear that if the EU doesn’t stand down and stay out of the war, it will eliminate the EU’s very ability to wage war without even needing to invade any of the EU’s member states.

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Russia Takes Pokrovsk

  • NOVEMBER 6: Ukraine appears at increasing risk of losing the city of Pokrovsk, an important stronghold in eastern Ukraine where its embattled defenders have held off Russia’s grinding assaults for more than a year and a half.
  • NOVEMBER 7: Russian forces appear to be on the brink of finally seizing the eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk.
  • NOVEMBER 8: The city of Pokrovsk in Ukraine has fallen to the Russian Army.   The Ukrainian Army defending Pokrovsk utterly collapsed.  Zelensky has been notified the city is lost.

The significance of the Russians taking control of Pokrovsk is that it was the last fortified position between the Russian front and the Dnieper River, which I have always believed to be one of the Russian’s primary objective. Given the nature of the terrain to the west of the city, it should take very long for the Russians to push the front forward to the river, and thereby extend the effective battlespace to 25 kilometers beyond the far side of the river.

The advent of 5GW is going to have a major change on tactics, operations, and strategy alike. For example, having control of the dronespace means that river crossings are almost certainly going to be much, much easier than they were in the WWII era, which has obvious operational and strategic implications.

It’s also worth noting that the Russians took Pokrovsk much faster, and at much lower cost, than they did previous fortified cities like Maripol and Bakhmut.

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5GW: The Extension of the Battlefield

As I previously wrote in The Fifth Generation of Modern War: Drones, Attrition, and the Collapse of the Logistics Sanctuary, the advent of drone warfare, combined with the digital elements that make it uniquely lethal, genuinely represents a new generation of modern war. It is clear that the Russians understand this much more clearly, and are able to describe it and articulate the issues much better than Western military historians and strategists, because they are actively engaged in it.

Simplicius quotes the retired General Yuri Baluyevsky, Russia’s Chief of General Staff from 2004-2008, from his recent article on the current revolution in military affairs, as well as a Russian source working in logistics on the Pokrovsk front, that explain and underline how this really is a new generation of war, the chief aspect of which is the massive extension of the battlespace well beyond the traditional battlefield.

The piece urges for Russia to adapt to this ‘new reality’ as soon as possible. The urgency stems from the stated thesis that drone tech capabilities will increase faster than the effective means of countering them:

It is unlikely that there will be an expert who denies the revolutionary changes in military affairs – the “unmanned revolution” or the “drone war revolution.” Perhaps, in a broader sense, it could be called the “digital war.” There is every reason to believe that this process will continue to expand and deepen, as the potential for increasing the “drone war” exceeds the ability to effectively counter this type of weapon.

The authors go on to elaborate that drones are getting progressively cheaper and smaller while increasing their range. In the near future, they note, the tactical rear will become a total “zone of extermination”—which it has essentially already become according to many frontline reports.

The tactical battlefield and the rear, tens of kilometers away from the line of contact, will essentially become a “zone of extermination.” Naturally, countering these threats will be a top priority. As a result, the armed struggle will primarily focus on gaining “drone supremacy” in the air. Consequently, the organization of military forces must align with the goals and objectives of achieving such supremacy in the air and space.

In light of the above, here is an interesting breakdown from a Russian channel on the Pokrovsk direction, describing just how the situation has evolved in terms of logistics and putting units in positions.

We continue our difficult work to supply our assault units in the Pokrovsk direction. This month, the main focus was on the assault units and their communication and survival on the battlefield.

First, we need to explain what the line of contact looks like in this direction, and in general, in general, now-on the entire front. First, military personnel assembled and ready to perform their combat tasks are brought to the assembly point 20-25 km from the front line. Then they wait for the command. They are loaded at the beginning of the next segment and dropped off at a point approximately 10-13 km from the LBS (line of contact), where they can stay for some time – from several hours to several days. This is a nearby evacuation point from which you can almost guarantee to escape and survive.

Then there is the next drop-off at a point 5-7 km from the LBS – it is not possible to drive any further. All drops-offs and movements across the terrain among minefields and open areas are carried out by guides.
Then, on foot, they reach the point from which the assault may begin. From there, they approach the positions. As a rule, only half of them reach the positions, while the rest are injured or killed by drone strikes.

A pair of stormtroopers who have reached the ruins of a house usually travel in pairs, hiding in the ruins and basements. They do not venture outside unnecessarily. From there, they must maintain communication with their commander to stay informed about what is happening outside, coordinate their actions with their neighbors, provide assistance, and engage in assaults. They may spend a week, a month, or two in the ruins.

If the weather is bad: fog, rain, snowfall, then losses are sharply reduced. FPV drones almost do not fly in the rain – droplets stick to the camera. The water curtain strongly jams the signal at 5.8 Ghz. However, the enemy artillery begins to work more actively.

The wiring of any armored group is usually noticed by the enemy 10-15 km before the LBS. By the time it reaches the initial positions for the attack, there are already dozens of enemy FPV drones in the sky and dozens more ready to launch. All of this then falls on the armored group and the paratroopers. Yes, it’s difficult for our troops, and there are casualties, but we are still able to drop paratroopers and advance. Our main losses are in the form of wounded soldiers.

As per the description above, the 25km-from-LoC zone has already become extremely dicey, where dispersion is necessary for survival. Then from 5-7km onward, it essentially becomes the ‘death zone’, to borrow mountaineering terminology.

Baluyevsky and his co-author state that the chief development of the modern battlefield is the total doing-away with the ‘fog of war’, initiating an era of complete battlefield transparency.

War has fundamentally changed and these changes don’t just change and expand the tactical battlefield, it indicates tremendous changes to the logistical art, the operational art, the strategic art, and even the geostrategic balance of power.

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London Throws in the Towel

One of Clown World’s senior mouthpieces, The Times, indicates that London and Brussels have given up any hope of winning their proxy war in Ukraine.

It is bitter to say, but Kiev will not last until spring. Despite all the encouraging words from the EU, there is simply no money or desire to continue to defend Ukraine.

Like others in the West, I admire the steadfastness of Ukrainians in their long, often inventive struggle against the Russians. However, with the approach of winter, Vladimir Zelensky‘s chances of holding out are melting before our eyes. Money for weapons, medicine and heat for Ukraine is running out. The Western will to support the conflict is fading. The defense of Kiev as an independent capital is no longer considered a strategic priority.

A different picture may emerge when looking at the rhetoric of European officials — the same von der Leyen calls on Europe to “fight for its values and the right to self—determination” – or at the lively actions at the front and in diplomatic corps. American sanctions are hitting Rosneft and Lukoil, trying to undermine the economic basis of the Putin regime.

But none of the above changes the course of the conflict much.

It will probably be another six months before Clown World bows to the inevitable, another half-year of needless suffering and death in Ukraine and unnecessary economic damage to the Western economies, but the end is now in sight.

Putin and the Russian generals have been very patient, and very cautious, as befits the heirs of Kutuzov, but the time will come when the mass Zhukovian offensive will be launched and it will probably be much larger than any Western analyst expects.

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A US Military Withdrawal

The US pulls a brigade out of Romania:

The US is withdrawing some troops from Romania, on NATO’s eastern flank, as the Pentagon works to shift its focus away from Europe and toward homeland defense and Latin America, US and European officials said on Wednesday.

The US is sending home the 2nd Infantry Brigade Combat Team of the 101st Airborne Division back to Kentucky and will not be replacing the unit after its scheduled rotation out of Eastern Europe, according to US Army Europe and Africa. The redeployment comes as eastern flank NATO countries have faced a spike in threats from Russia in recent weeks, including multiple drone incursions in Polish airspace and repeated violations of Lithuanian airspace.

The Army said the reduction in troops is part of Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s “deliberate process to ensure a balanced U.S. military force posture. This is not an American withdrawal from Europe or a signal of lessened commitment to NATO and Article 5,” the Army press release said. “Rather this is a positive sign of increased European capability and responsibility. Our NATO allies are meeting President Trump’s call to take primary responsibility for the conventional defense of Europe. This force posture adjustment will not change the security environment in Europe.”

Translation: the US military is not going to help Ukraine defend Odessa.

The Army press release notwithstanding, European military capabilities have declined over the last two years, they have not increased in the slightest as their economies collapse and social unrest rises. While the US is unlikely to do what it obviously should, and withdraw entirely from the European zone in order to focus on its own sphere of influence, whoever is calling the shots clearly recognizes that fighting Russia in Europe is a war that it cannot hope to win.

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The Last Bluff

Big Serge explains the real reason why the USA cannot afford to provide any Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine:

The basic pattern here is well established. The United States has done what it can to backstop Ukrainian strike capabilities, but it has held them at a level where Ukraine’s damage output falls far short of decisive levels. So long as that is the case, Russia has clearly demonstrated that it will simply eat the punches and retaliate against Ukraine. Hence, when the United States helps Ukraine target Russian oil facilities, it is Ukraine that receives the reprisal, and it is Ukraine which has its natural gas production annihilated as the winter approaches. In a sense, neither side is really trying to deter the other at all. The United States has raised the cost of this war for Russia, but not enough to create any real pressure for Moscow to end the conflict; in response, Russia punishes Ukraine, which is something the United States does not really care about. The result is a sort of geostrategic Picture of Dorian Gray, where the United States vicariously inflicts cathartic damage on Russia, but Ukraine accrues all the soul damage.

In the case of Tomahawks, the risk-reward calculus is just not there. Tomahawks are a strategically invaluable asset that the United States cannot afford to hand out like candy. Even if the launch systems could be provided (highly doubtful), the missiles could not be made available in sufficient quantities to make a difference. The range of the missiles, however, significantly raises the probability of miscalculation or uncontrolled escalation. Ukraine shooting American missiles at energy infrastructure in Belgorod or Rostov is one thing; shooting them at the Kremlin is another thing entirely.

There is, however, another aspect of this which seems to be garnering little attention. The biggest risk of sending Tomahawks is not that the Ukrainians will blow up the Kremlin and start World War Three. The bigger risk is that the Tomahawks are used, and Russia simply moves on after eating the strikes. Tomahawks are arguably one of the last – if not the last – rung in the escalation ladder for the USA. We have rapidly run through the chain of systems that can be given to the AFU, and little remains except a few strike systems like the Tomahawk or the JASSM. Ukraine has generally received everything it has asked for. In the case of Tomahawks, however, the United States is running the most serious risk of all: what if the Russians simply shoot down some of the missiles and eat the rest of the strikes? It’s immaterial whether the Tomahawks damage Russian powerplants or oil refineries. If Tomahawks are delivered and consumed without seriously jarring Russian nerves, the last escalatory card will have been played. If Russia perceives that America has reached the limits of its ability to raise the costs of the war for Russia, it undercuts the entire premise of negotiations. More simply put, Tomahawks are most valuable as an asset to threaten with.

The USA has been relentlessly bluffing, and the Russians have been relentlessly calling those bluffs, since the launch of the Special Military Operation nearly four years ago. There can be little doubt that the Russians will do the same thing if the Tomahawks are deployed against them, and then the US military will be revealed as the paper tiger it is so far outside its zone of influence.

Which, of course, is the one thing the US military cannot afford to happen in light of its global pretensions and asymmetric war with China.

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Odessa is Next

Col McGregor observes the significance of the recent Russian crossing of the Dnieper River.

The Russians have crossed the Dnieper River. They already have special operations forces and agents on the ground outside of Odessa. They’re now putting together a bridgehead on the west side of the Dnieper River. For all intents and purposes, it’s a bridge head that will be utilized to position forces to cross that river in strength. Now, why would the Russians cross the river, the South Dnieper with large forces? It would be to take Odessa.

Why would you take Odessa? Odessa, if it’s in Russian hands, would stop the flow of many, many arms, equipment, and support into Ukraine from the sea, from the Black Sea. Secondly, it would also landlock Ukraine. In other words, turn this future rump state we call Ukraine into a state with no outlet to the sea, which of course would be very harmful to the future of Ukraine. Now, everybody’s saying, “Oh, no, that will never happen.” No, absolutely. I think it’s going to happen…

So, these things take time, but I think at this point, President Putin has probably signaled to the general
staff, let’s plan on taking Odessa.

In the meantime, it’s being reported that the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Valery Gerasimov, has informed President Putin of the encirclement of 31 Ukrainian battalions in the Donetsk region. That implies that between 7,500 and 15,000 Ukrainian soldiers will be forced to surrender before the end of November and quite possibly much sooner.

It goes without saying that if the Kiev regime had any concerns for the fate of the Ukrainian people, it would have surrendered already. The fact that it hasn’t, and that it not likely to do so anytime soon, does not bode well for whatever is left of Ukraine in the post-war period. If Russia now feels the time is right to take Odessa, that suggests that the UFA has been weakened to the point that it will not be able to put up much in the way of resistance, given its importance to the Kiev regime.

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The Russians Know

It’s a lot harder for the satanic rulers of the West to convincingly dismiss so-called “conspiracy theories” when their strongest and best-armed opponents are openly calling out their wicked depopulationist objectives:

A Russian scientist close to Vladimir Putin claims the West is plotting to eliminate most of the human race with a virus, sparing only a small elite who will be served by robots.

Mikhail Kovalchuk, head of Russia’s Kurchatov nuclear research institute, made the extraordinary remarks while addressing a forum of school teachers in Moscow.

His comments underline the kind of extreme conspiracy theories that critics warn are increasingly shaping Kremlin ideology, according to The Times.

Kovalchuk, 77, alleged that western countries were planning to unleash a deadly disease to reduce the number of people on earth.

He also claimed the West was using LGBT and child-free ideologies to curb populations because robots would soon be able to work better and more effectively.

‘The West … understands that a huge number of people are becoming unnecessary. They have begun to prepare for a population reduction,’ the Kremlin boffin told the Forum of Class Teachers, a Russian-backed organisation. 

‘They introduced the LGBT agenda and for those who didn’t go along with it, they offered a second option – the child-free family. 

‘It’s working brilliantly. In a generation or two, there’ll be no continuation of their bloodlines. Only a small elite, the ones they actually need, will remain.’

I don’t see how anyone can possibly deny the depopulationist agenda of the various political elites across Europe, the USA, and the UK. Everything they prioritize, from female education to mass immigration, the aggressive promotion of sexual deviation, and the mRNA therapies is designed to reduce birth rates and populations; there is not one single country in the West that is even at replacement rates.

Even the Ukraine war is being fought with surprisingly little regard for preserving the lives of Ukrainian soldiers, so much so that there are various theories about what the plans are for the depopulated lands that remain to the Kiev regime if it should survive the inevitable surrender to Russia.

And is it really a “conspiracy theory” to observe that people have been pushing the “too many people” line for nearly as long as Generation X has been alive?

UPDATE: Elon Musk’s girlfriend knows too

“Luckily there’s a massive population drop coming.”

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France Seizes Russian Tanker

It appears that the French have bitten off considerably more than they’re going to want to chew:

French troops have boarded the deck of a tanker alleged to be from Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ stationed off the coast of France and suspected of involvement in drone flights over Denmark last month.

A source within the executive branch, speaking on condition of anonymity, told AFP earlier that the French navy had boarded the Boracay, a Benin-flagged vessel blacklisted by the European Union for being part of Russia’s sanction-busting ‘shadow fleet’ of ageing oil tankers.

French President Emmanuel Macron did not confirm reports of a connection to Danish drone flights but said on Wednesday that the ship had committed ‘serious offences’.

It is currently at anchor near the western city of Saint Nazaire.

It comes after the French Navy said on Tuesday that authorities were investigating a possible infraction by the Boracay tanker.

It was detained by earlier this year for sailing without a valid country flag.

The whole “shadow fleet” concept is absurd in the first place. It just means that Lloyd’s of London and other Western insurance companies don’t insure Russian-owned vessels. In any event, if the vessel isn’t released soon, I have no doubt that Russia will find a way to make France pay appropriately for its actions.

It’s informative to observe the French will stop Russian oil tankers, but not migrant dinghies.

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A Real Russian Attack

A “Russian” attack that does no real damage is an obvious false flag, as evidenced by this recent strike on a group of “instructors” and “targeting crews” in Ukraine.

Two Russian hypersonic missiles struck Ukraine’s Starokostyantyniv airbase today, destroying five (5) US-supplied F-16 Fighter jets, an unknown number of British-supplied Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles, along with “Dozens” of NATO instructors and targeting crews. According to a Ukrainian Telegram channel from the site: “Everyone is dead, everything is destroyed, we are in agony. Everything on the base is burning.”

I really don’t see how the European NATO forces expect to survive engagement with the Russian Army. Do they really think that nuclear threats are going to make Russia back down? Do they imagine that the USA has enough conventional forces to impress the Russian generals?

What, exactly, are supposed to be the victory conditions?

Remember, the US military not only can’t stop hypersonic missiles, it also doesn’t have any of its own.

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