Tag: Russia

There Will Be No Deal

Big Serge, one of the Internet’s foremost military historians, doesn’t see any negotiated deal bringing an end to the war in Ukraine:

I have never made any bones about my belief that the war in Ukraine will be resolved militarily: that is, it will be fought to its conclusion and end in the defeat of Ukraine in the east, Russian control of vast swathes of the country, and the subordination of a rump Ukraine to Russian interests. Trump’s self conception is greatly tied up in his image as a “dealmaker”, and his view of foreign affairs as fundamentally transactional in nature. As the American president, he has the power to force this framing on Ukraine, but not on Russia. There remain intractable gulfs between Russia’s war aims and what Kiev is willing to discuss, and it is doubtful that Trump will be able to reconcile these differences. Russia, however, does not need to accept a partial victory simply in the name of goodwill and negotiation. Moscow has recourse to a more primal form of power. The sword predates and transcends the pen. Negotiation, as such, must bow to the reality of the battlefield, and no amount of sharp deal making can transcend the more ancient law of blood.

I assume he’s right. I wish he wasn’t, but all of the various factors point to an intractable impossibility. Even the Israelis and the Palestinians were able to establish a peacefire, but the quad-belligerents of Russia, Kiev, Brussels, and the USA simply have too many conflicting interests to manage even that.

While Brussels has been sidelined and its views are irrelevant, the USA has been reluctant to accept the facts of the situation and is still, publicly, at least, posturing as if it has any influence over Russia. Unless and until the Trump administration recognizes that it cannot make Russia do anything, its posturing is no more meaningful than Kiev’s more obviously irrelevant posturing. I see absolutely no purpose in President Trump blathering about his emotions vis-a-vis the Russian President; just pull the plug already!

Russia isn’t that far off from its real goals. So, its interests are almost certainly best served by continuing the war, taking everything it wishes, and then agreeing to talking about a settlement that will give it even more. This is why the correct move by the USA is to withdraw all support for Ukraine and the EU alike, and force the unconditional surrender that will be the eventual outcome of a war that continues into 2026.

DISCUSS ON SG

The USA Attacked Russia

To absolutely no one’s surprise, the New York Times reveals that the USA, under the Fake Biden interregnum, was a co-belligerent in the NATO war against Russia:

The administration of US President Joe Biden was far more deeply involved in backing Ukraine’s fight against Russia than previously acknowledged, a New York Times investigation has claimed, stressing that Washington’s intelligence was indispensable for Kiev’s military operations.

The lengthy report released on Saturday offers a deep dive into an “extraordinary partnership of intelligence, strategy, planning and technology” that became Kiev’s “secret weapon” in countering Russia.

While the Pentagon supplied Ukraine with tens of billions of dollars in military aid, it also provided crucial intelligence that enabled Kiev to attack Russian command and control centers and other high-value targets starting in mid-2022, the NYT said.

According to the article, the heart of this partnership lay at the US Army facility in Wiesbaden, Germany, where American and Ukrainian officers set daily targeting priorities which they reportedly referred to as “points of interest,” for fear of appearing too provocative.

American and Ukrainian officers planned major counteroffensives together and launched large long-range high-precision strikes, using Western-supplied weapons on Russia’s Crimea, the NYT also claimed. The US has also dispatched dozens of military advisers to Ukraine, some of whom were allowed to travel close to the frontline.

In 2024, the US extended its permissions to allow Ukraine carry out limited long-range strikes using American-supplied weapons into internationally recognized Russian territory – for years considered a “red line.” Washington provided Kiev with the targeting data for the strikes. One European intelligence official was shocked by the level of US involvement in the conflict, telling the Times, “they are part of the kill chain now.”

Russia would be perfectly within its rights to launch retaliatory strikes on London, Paris, Brussels, or Washington DC now. The globalist organizations headquartered in those four cities are 100-percent guilty of having attacked Russia. The only reason it won’t do so is because time is on its side; the last desperate hope of Clown World is to provoke Russia into striking back hard enough to galvanize widespread Western support for a war on Russia.

The fact that Clown World’s very clever and not-at-all transparent strategy rests on such an obvious non-starter only serves to underline how fragile their globalist neo-tower of Babel is now. At this point, Americans wouldn’t care if Russian troops not only took Kiev and Odessa, they wouldn’t care if they occupied Berlin and Brussels as well.

The constant portrayal of the patient, cautious Putin, who is probably the individual most responsible for preventing WWIII, as an aggressive dictator is such a complete inversion of the truth that it is probably going to be genuinely shocking to most people when he is eventually succeeded by a much more hardline figure who is much more willing to hold Russia’s enemies accountable for their constant provocations.

DISCUSS ON SG

US Troops Already Dying

I don’t know if there is a connection between the news that four US soldiers in a vehicle died near the Lithuanian-Belorussian border and the announcement that the Baltic states were starting to mine their borders, but a connection might explain the incident.

Four American soldiers and a tracked transport vehicle went missing yesterday during military exercises near the Belarusian border in Lithuania. Today, they were found dead, reports Delfi. The circumstances and cause of their deaths are currently under investigation.

DISCUSS ON SG

India Will Not Fight Russia

It’s becoming clear that India has no intention of becoming the Arsenal of Clown World:

Indian journalist Manish Jha, Editor at TV9 Network, spoke to RT following his recent trip to the Zaporozhye region, including a visit to the embattled Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). Drawing on months of on-the-ground reporting in Donbass, Jha offered a critical take on how major global media outlets have covered the conflict in Ukraine.

“Most mainstream media – be it CNN, The Washington Post, or Reuters – are treated like the Bible,” Jha said. “But when I came here, when I visited places in Donbass, Zaporozhye, Kherson – I started realizing how they lie to the entire world.”

Recalling one particularly harrowing incident, Jha said: “I was in Donetsk when it was heavily shelled. A rocket hit a bus right in front of me, and eight people were burned alive. I witnessed it while doing live reporting for my network. The next morning, I checked international media to see what they reported – and not a single line. That moment I realized we need to be independent and tell the truth to the world.”

Jha also commented on NATO’s role in the ongoing conflict: “For the last three years, we’ve seen how 30 countries led by the US have tried to destroy Russia – but they haven’t succeeded. As a war reporter, I can tell you: NATO is exhausted. They need time to rebuild themselves.”

Despite onging pressure from Western powers to distance itself from Moscow, India has refused to take sides. The Indian leadership has argued that New Delhi’s strong diplomatic ties with both Russia and Ukraine place it in a unique position to act as a mediator in future peace efforts.

If the God-Emperor 2.0 is unsuccessful in forcing the Kiev regime and the Brussels regime to give up their futile attempts to draw the US military into fighting their war with Russia for them, the fake democracies are going to need an industrial power on their side to account for the mass production of drones that is now as important as manufacturing artillery tubes, artillery shells, and armored fighting vehicles.

Russia has China, Korea, and Iran on its side. The Kiev-Brussels alliance has the USA, Japan, and possibly Turkey. But it won’t have India; I suspect India will choose the Russians over putting themselves into direct opposition to China.

DISCUSS ON SG

Last Chance to Keep Odessa

At this point, I have to assume that Putin and his advisors are quite cheerfully assuming that the Kiev regime and its EU supporters don’t have the brains or the courage to quit when they’re behind.

In return for recognition and if it happened “in the near future”, Kommersant said Putin would undertake not to lay claim to the Ukrainian port city of Odessa and other Ukrainian territory.

Keep in mind Kommersant is not a ‘tabloid’ or rag, but one of Russia’s most respected publications. So, if we are to believe the claim above, Putin is essentially giving the West and Ukraine a short window of time to accept the current territories, or risk having Odessa be included in the official demands.

This obviously fully goes along with Putin’s previous more ‘vague’ statements, echoed by the likes of Lavrov et al, about how Ukraine’s terms would progressively worsen over time, should they refuse to accept Russia’s current ‘generous’ ones. But recall that in the last report, we’ve already mentioned how Ukraine is getting increasingly antsy over potential ‘secret talks’ between Putin and Trump on the Odessa bargaining chip:

As Forbes further notes, the Kommersant journalist claims Putin said “and other regions” besides Odessa, which could obviously point to Kharkov and the like. But Russia could change its mind and decide to close this window short:

However, the point at which Russia is ready to abandon its claims to Odessa and other territories with the recognition of the Crimea, the LPR, DPR, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions may also move, the correspondent notes. “They don’t have time to dig in,” Putin said at the meeting.

I suspect this is just Russia being polite in a diplomatic context. While Kiev and Brussels are still posturing about recovering the Crimea and the four liberated republics, and the USA is hoping to keep the new borders more or less where they are, Russia has been preparing a spring offensive that will almost certainly acquire Odessa and Eastern Ukraine. The statement strikes me as the sort of fair warning that you give a ranting lunatic, not for his sake, but in order to demonstrate to everyone after the fact that you gave him the opportunity to avoid the inevitable consequences.

And, of course, you do so with confidence that he’s going to ignore it and continue pursuing the conflict.

There is absolutely no chance that the Ukro-European alliance is going to prevent Russia from doing whatever Putin believes to be necessary. The increasing importance of drone warfare, which is increasingly replacing artillery as the queen of the battlefield, is making industrial capacity even more important, so much so that it has almost certainly changed the balance of power in Asia in the infantry context; the USA will not be able to match China on either the ground or the sea now.

Furthermore, most analysts seem to stubbornly ignore that in addition to the USA is stepping back from propping up Europe’s militaries, Russia has the ability to vastly expand its already-formidable military resources by calling on China, Iran, and North Korea for manufacturing support at any time. This is not an option that is open to Europe, with the possible exception of India.

As I have repeatedly pointed out, the absolute best strategy at this juncture is for the Kiev regime to surrender unconditionally and appeal to the mercy of a man who has proven himself to be considerably more far-sighted than any of the European or US leaders. Putin knows from the declining power of the USA and the collapse of the Soviet Union that a hostile occupation of Western Ukraine or Eastern Europe is not in Russia’s interest.

But I very much doubt anyone in Kiev, Brussels, or Washington DC has the sense to accept the brutal mathematics of war. Which is why I expect Odessa to be in Russian hands before the end of the year.

DISCUSS ON SG

You and Him Fight Won’t Fly

But Macron and Starmer are probably going to get a lot of young French and British soldiers killed trying to draw the US military into the war in Ukraine:

  • U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has announced that European defense and military leaders will meet in London on Thursday, as planning for a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine enter an “operational phase” with over a dozen countries having agreed to participate in such a mission.
  • European countries that agree to send a military contingent to Ukraine, allegedly for an observation mission, can do so without Russia’s consent, French President Emmanuel Macron said in an interview with Le Parisien. “Ukraine is a sovereign country. If it asks for allied troops to be present on its territory, it is not up to Russia to decide whether to agree or not,” he said. According to the newspaper, the Franco-British plan to send so-called peacekeepers to Ukraine is in the final stages of being agreed upon.

It’s the same old classic “fake it til you make it” act: they are merely trying to turn the ‘prophecy’ into a self-fulfilling one by treating it as if it were real. But there is no real consensus, and their plan has little chance of conjuring it from thin air, particularly given that the US has already counted itself out of any troop involvement.

Both the French and British know how politically risky the move is—if their troops begin coming home in body bags from Russian strikes, and there’s no Mommy US to back them up, their fragile political regimes would crumble from public outrage, especially since they’re already hanging on by a tenuous thread.

The West has a Sunk Cost problem: they’ve invested everything not only into the Ukraine war itself, but now into the image of their own strength and ability to manifest peace at will. In other words, they told the world Russia was weak, and that they had the global clout to bring Putin to the table anytime they saw fit.

Instead, the rampaging bear has not slowed, and Western puppet leaders are panickedly fighting the narrative current, pushing inertia for its own sake to signal faux-strength and leadership on global issues.

First, you don’t get to send in “peacekeepers” when you are one of the belligerent parties, which both France and Great Britain absolutely are. Second, it’s not 1940 anymore. Not only do most Americans not care about Europe, a substantial minority of US citizens aren’t even European and never had any historical connection to, or affection for, the European countries. They have absolutely no interest in “saving Europe” again, especially not a European Union that was quite literally created in order to harm American business interests and create an economic counterweight to the US market.

And third, the God-Emperor 2.0 has already made it very clear that the US will not send troops to fight Russia, not even if the French and the British are dumb enough to stick their collective heads in the jaws of the Russian bear.

DISCUSS ON SG

No Deal

Ukraine rejects Russia’s conditions for a 30-day ceasefire:

Ukraine has just released their own ‘red lines’, which contravene virtually every one of Russia’s most important demands.

  • No restrictions on the size of the army;
  • No restrictions on Ukraine’s participation in the EU and NATO;
  • Russia should not have a veto over Ukraine’s participation in international organizations.

What exactly, then, is the point of giving Ukraine a 30-day ceasefire, when they are expressly rejecting Russia’s core conditions?

It’s interesting that Kiev would implicitly accept the Russian territorial demands, but considering that its forces are a) probably less than 30 days from retreating from the remainder of those four regions, and, b) Russia has already entered a fifth region, the Oblast of Sumy, in force, that is little more than refusing to deny an effective fait accompli.

But as Simplicius points out, the strangest thing is that the US is now threatening to do something Russia hasn’t even been accused of doing by anyone, which is to invade a NATO signatory.

The Chairman of Denmark’s Defense Committee, Rasmus Jarlov responds to today’s statement by U.S. President Donald J. Trump while meeting with the Secretary-General of NATO, in which he said that he believed the U.S. annexation of Greenland would happen, with Jarlov stating, “It would mean war between two NATO countries. Greenland has just voted against immediate independence from Denmark and does not want to be American ever.”

What Jarlov references above is the new polls that show 85% of Greenlanders do not want to become a part of the US. What makes the hypocrisy even more outrageous is that in the video above, Trump even hints at a potential referendum for Greenland to join the US. So, referenda are “not democracy” when it comes to Russia in Crimea, Donbass, and elsewhere—but are fine when the US does it?

At this point, anyone who claims to know what’s going on is posturing, because the rhetoric is now so far beyond the dialectic it’s not even possible to make any coherent sense of it all. Best just to ignore all the words and pay attention to the actual facts on the ground. However, it’s becoming apparent that Russia expects Odessa and Nikolaev to peacefully come under its control, as its demand for self-determination on the part of the Ukrainian-controlled territories obviously anticipates.

In addition to the fact that all our constitutional territories are unequivocally not subject to any revision, and the organization and conduct of a Tribunal on the facts of war crimes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, our interests also extend to the entire left-bank Ukraine, where there should be no Ukrainian troops, and the territories themselves should be under our protectorate. The same applies to the Odessa and Nikolaev regions, where our monitoring missions will operate. This effectively means the establishment of our bases there. The administration of these regions should be appointed from representatives loyal to us. And, of course, these regions, like the regions of left-bank Ukraine, should have the right to self-determination.

DISCUSS ON SG

Putin’s Ceasefire Terms

Vladimir Putin provides Russia’s requirements for a ceasefire.

  • Ukrainian troops must be completely withdrawn from the Donetsk and Lunhansk People’s Republics, the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions. This means the administrative borders that existed at the time of their entry into Ukraine.
  • Official notice of Ukraine’s abandonment of plans to join NATO.

At first, that struck me as remarkably easy terms, but then, this is just for a ceasefire, they are not the final Russian demands for a lasting peace settlement. And they make sense from the Russian perspective, because even if Ukraine uses the ceasefire to rearm, refit, and repurpose its defenses, Russia will have acquired control over the remaining territory in the four Novyrussian republics without have to fight for it.

And if Ukraine won’t concede that territory voluntarily in return for a ceasefire, there is no point in negotiations anyhow.

DISCUSS ON SG

Second Term Same as the First?

The rhetoric has certainly improved. But President Trump hasn’t convinced everyone that he actually means business, as one new policy after another has dissipated before actually achieving any significant results. Simplicius suspects this is one reason the absurd ceasefire offer, which would appear to be an obvious non-starter, was presented to Russia:

The ceasefire agreement comes just a day after Ukraine launched the largest drone attack on Moscow of the entire war, with an estimated 400-500 drones, almost all of which were shot down, the remainder hitting civilian apartment blocks.

It appears to have been made for no better reason than scoring much-needed political points for Trump, who now wallows in a post-euphoric doldrums phase of his floundering second term, when virtually every one of his campaign promises has faltered or flopped. No Epstein, JFK, or 9/11 lists, no Mexican wall, no Fort Knox audit or UFO disclosure, no mass deportations, with ICE raids rumored to have halted, no promised US troop withdrawals from Syria, Europe, or elsewhere. Every other boastful attempt to capture Greenland, Canada, Panama, and everything in between has likewise fallen flat on its face, with countries no longer fearing nor taking the US seriously.

Desperate for a razzle-dazzle to slap points on the scoreboard, Trump’s team tipped this rushed ‘ceasefire’ deal for being just the trick. Except, it’s about the most nonsensically absurd ceasefire attempt imaginable, a veritable charade by another name.

  • It comes a day after Ukraine’s massive drone provocation, meant specifically to spoil the ceasefire by making Russia look like the bad guy, after Russia rightfully rejects the deal.
  • It comes in the midst of one of the largest frontline collapses of the war, as Ukrainian troops are being battered, decimated, and driven out of Kursk.
  • It comes with zero ‘concessions’ or offers to Russia itself, but huge reward to Ukraine in the form of the reactivation of all weapons shipments, aid, and intelligence sharing.
  • It comes when Ukraine still controls some Kursk territory, which is an obvious common sense non-starter for Russia.

I wouldn’t be quite so dismissive of the God-Emperor 2.0’s remarkable achievements in his first two months in office. But it is readily apparent that Trump needs to talk less and deliver more or he’s going to start losing at least some of the goodwill and popular support that he has amassed as a result of his aggressive executive orders.

I have no idea why he agreed to this ceasefire proposal or why he’s shown hesitation on cutting all support for Ukraine and exiting NATO. Russia is going to win the war even if the entire EU, UK, and the USA formally declare war and open direct hostilities tomorrow. Military power is all about who can get there first with the most, and no one is going to defeat the Russian military its own backyard on the basis of logistics alone. If this were a war for Mexico, or even Canada, the equation would be different, but given the geographic location of Ukraine, the inevitable outcome is not even potentially in doubt.

And certainly, I doubt that threats of adding a few more sanctions to the current 21 thousand or so already in place are going to impress or intimidate the Russians into doing anything they don’t see as being to their advantage.

Donald Trump threatened ‘devastating’ trade and economic consequences on Russia if President Vladimir Putin doesn’t agree to a 30-day ceasefire with Ukraine. Trump issued the threat – which included a considerable hedge – while discussing administration efforts to bring an end to Russia’s brutal war in Ukraine, which Trump again said could lead to World War III.

DISCUSS ON SG

They’re Not Stopping

RUMOR: Russian forces are reportedly attempting to cross the Dnipro river, aiming to establish footholds on the west (right) bank at four locations to allow them a clear run at the strategically important port city of Kherson.

RUMOR: The Russian Army is entering the Dnipro Region of Ukraine, in force, in multiple points of entry. This was unexpected by Ukraine (and its Western Cohorts). This is the first indication that Russia may be planning to take all portions of Ukraine that are East of the Dnipier River; basically the entire eastern half of Ukraine; but that is just speculation at this point.

My expectation is that the Russians will simply keep going until a) the Kiev regime surrenders unconditionally or b) they control the entire territory of Ukraine. Once the Dnieper is crossed, I expect the UFA will quickly collapse since there aren’t much in the way of fortifications in the western plains. It’s now evident that there is no one with whom the Russians can reasonably negotiate a surrender given the fact that Zelensky is not a legitimate head of state, the USA refuses to unilaterally end all support prior to any ceasefire, and the European leaders actually prefer the war to continue.

UPDATE: This, combined with being driven out of Kursk, may be why the Ukrainians have theoretically agreed to US proposals for a ceasefire. I see no reason why the Russians would accept it, though.

Ukraine has agreed to a U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire with Russia as President Donald Trump lifts a pause on military aid and intelligence sharing to the country. The agreement, under intense pressure from the U.S. side, now puts the ball in Moscow’s court, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said at the conclusion of a day of talks with Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia.

UPDATE: The Russians will not accept the ceasefire.

In a significant setback to peace efforts, Russia has rejected the proposed 30-day ceasefire deal with Ukraine. The ceasefire agreement, which was contingent on Russia’s acceptance, aimed to provide a temporary halt to hostilities and create a foundation for a long-term peace deal. However, Russian officials have deemed the proposal unacceptable, citing concerns that it would allow Ukraine to strengthen its armed forces.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated that firm agreements on a final settlement are needed, and a temporary ceasefire is unacceptable. She emphasized that Ukraine would use the pause to strengthen its military potential with the help of its allies. Russian officials have also ruled out ceding captured Ukrainian territory and have reiterated their desire to roll back NATO’s presence across Europe.

As others have pointed out, Ukraine has repeatedly offered ceasefires after losing a significant battle, then going right back on the offensive.

DISCUSS ON SG