Tag: Russia

Why Russia Can’t Stop

The special military operation in Ukraine is not about Ukraine. It was never about Ukraine. The Russians have been telling everyone this from the start, but the media refuses to report the truth about the nature and scale of the conflict.

The world has entered an era of major transformation. In that sense, the narrow focus is – will they reach an agreement on Ukraine? No. Every time you think about that, you have to recall how it all started, why it is like this, how wrongly the world is structured, how important it is for Russia to insist on its interests, why the European bureaucracy itself cannot accept that, because otherwise that would mean the end of both it and the political class of many countries. Why can’t this conflict stop? Because it can’t be settled. Someone has to win. Just as with the US and Iran (which, incidentally, is a much more local conflict) – it is impossible to agree, there can be no deal. There can only be some movement in which one of the sides explicitly or implicitly recognizes its defeat. It may not be total defeat, but at least at some stage one side wins and the other side does not recognize it. Such a process will last a long time, but in the end there will still be some de facto consolidation of the results of this conflict. Not a negotiated one, unfortunately, but a factual one. Diplomats may formalize such a conclusion, or they may not. Frankly, that is no longer important.

When we talk about Russia-US negotiations on Ukraine, there are two extremes, and both miss the essence. Yes, we are negotiating, and we constantly demonstrate that Russia and the US have nothing to fight over. We are ready to coexist with the US on the same globe. That is exactly why Putin says: “Of course, Kushner and Witkoff are welcome guests, come. What else should we show you from Moscow’s kitchen?” You see, the US cannot conduct negotiations on Ukraine because it cannot force either Kiev, London, or Brussels to accept Russia’s reasonable demands. And how are they going to pressure Russia? I think the Trump administration more or less understands that it is pointless. So what kind of negotiations on Ukraine can there be?

As I said back in 2022, we’re already in WWIII. It’s not as dramatic as WWII or as violent on the battlefield as WWI, because the grounds being contested are more abstract than material. Right now, the most significant front is the Strait of Hormuz, which has serious ramifications for Venezuela and Canada due to the global importance of oil. But there is no violence on the second front, which is China, Taiwan, and Japan, and the real question is the destiny of the latter.

Taiwan island is already lost to China. Its fate, already obvious, was absolutely sealed with the defeat of the US Navy by Yemen and Iran. A navy that cannot impose its will on third- and fifth-rate coastal powers cannot hope to contest the will of a primary regional power in its own sphere of influence. Everyone understands this, even though the Chinese are too polite and the Americans are too embarrassed to admit it in public.

The real question is when Japan will throw off its occupation by the USA, which will probably require some sort of mutual assistance arrangement with China. The US military does not give up its bases easily, as the Philippines, the Europeans, and the Iraqis have learned, but it will give them up under pressure. And only the Chinese can provide the Japanese with the amount of pressure they will require to free themselves from the financial servitude under which they have labored, at great and increasing cost to their nation, for the last 70 years.

So that’s the big event that I think will make this global transformation undeniable even to those who still think nothing has changed and we are still living in the post-WWII era. An agreement of some sort between China and Japan, followed by a US withdrawal from its bases in the Home Islands and Okinawa.

On a related note, my guess about the recent visits to Moscow by the CIA Director and the senior negotiators is that Russia and the USA are in the process of reaching an agreement concerning what Russia will be permitted to do to defend itself against the UK and German logistical support for Ukrainian attacks without the USA agreeing to accept those states’ subsequent attempts to invoke NATO Article 5. Note that the USA has absolutely no obligation to take part in any so-called “collective self-defense,” only “such action as it deems necessary.”

The Russian embassy in Berlin has stated “From this point forward, facilities in Germany that house long-range (weapons) systems (being used by Ukraine to attack Russia) will be considered legitimate targets. This comes as German Chancellor Merz this week showcased factories in Germany that hope to produce 5,000 attack drones per month for Ukraine, to make long-range-strikes into Russia. As most people would probably guess, the very first time Russia hits a factory inside Germany, the country of Germany will attempt to invoke Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, “Collective Self Defense.”

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Playing the War Card

Hal Turner does tend to be more than a bit of a catastrophist, but it goes without saying that there is a lot of troublesome activity going on around the world that bears paying attention. Here is his read on the current situation; to it I would add that the financial markets are looking like they are going to have a horrific October and the oil problem from the US defeat in the Gulf War III has not been fixed by the resort to Venezuelan oil.

So it’s not unthinkable that the financial and political elites are looking for a combined distraction and reset.

I’m watching NATO push Russia toward a response that terrifies me. I think the United Kingdom is going to be hit.

Let me walk through what’s actually happening.

The Kursk incursion wasn’t a Ukrainian operation. It was NATO. Real-time satellite data. AI intelligence collecting digital and mobile network information showing exactly where Russian troops were positioned. Special NATO operatives and Ukrainian forces got guided deep into Russian territory by technology and planning they don’t have on their own.

That’s a red line people who lived through the 60s and 70s would never have considered crossing. Direct NATO operations inside Russia. Not weapons. Not training. Active intelligence coordination for a ground invasion.

Then Ukrainian forces following that incursion killed civilians. Another line crossed.

Then drones deployed from makeshift trucks attacked Russian nuclear bomber bases. Targeting the strategic deterrence force. The weapons designed to prevent exactly this kind of escalation.

Every step calculated. Every line deliberately crossed.

Here’s what makes this dangerous: the West knows Russia doesn’t want nuclear war. Russia never planned for global conflict. They responded to Ukraine’s NATO membership trajectory because their security demanded it. Not because they wanted World War III.

But NATO is facing irrelevance. The alliance needs a purpose. It needs an enemy. It needs escalation to justify its existence and its budgets.

So watch the contradiction in Western media: “Russia is too weak to advance on the battlefield. ” and the very NEXT words we’re told “Russia is also an existential threat that could invade Europe any day.”

Both statements can’t be true. But both serve the same goal.

They want to make Russia look weak enough that pushing them further seems safe. While simultaneously making Russia look threatening enough that massive military spending stays justified.

The strategy is clear: push Russia into retaliating. Cross enough red lines that Moscow has to respond with something NATO can call escalation. Then use that response to flip Western economies onto war footing.

Because those economies are beyond saving through normal means. The debt is too high. The infrastructure is too broken. The political systems are too captured.

The problem with playing the war card is that it’s more akin to rolling the dice. Wars seldom stay as neatly contained as the Smart Boy strategists declare they will, their consequences are often unpredictable, and the side that overestimates its own abilities while underestimating its enemies usually loses worse than it imagines it can.

Now, it’s also very important to keep in mind that evil will oft evil mar, and there are very good strategists on the other side. Russia developed the Oreshnik for precisely this reason; to be able to deliver a conventional blow with tac-nuke power that does not cross the nuclear line. And the US population is almost militantly anti-war while the European nations don’t have the military forces to fight anyone now. So even if the war between Russia and NATO goes hot and direct, that doesn’t mean the two major nuclear powers are going to start launching ICBMs at each other.

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Never Bluff a Bluffer

There is never any point in warning Clown World. Clown World lives by the bluff, which is why it dismisses every warning from Russia, Iran, or anyone else and assumes that its enemies are also posturing and manifesting.

British military facilities and equipment in Ukraine and beyond could become legitimate targets for Russian strikes if Kiev continues to use UK-supplied weapons for attacks on Russian territory, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has warned.

The comments come amid rapidly deteriorating relations between Moscow and London, and a day after Ukrainian forces reportedly used British-French Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles in a strike on Donetsk that wounded at least eight civilians, including two children.

“We have repeatedly warned that the response to Ukrainian strikes using British weapons against Russian territory could be directed against any British military facilities and equipment in Ukraine and beyond,” Zakharova said during a press briefing on Thursday.

Notice that China doesn’t bluff. China is much more effective and respected than Russia, mostly because it simply acts when and how it deems necessary, without any threats, without any posturing, and without any warning. The Russians always seem to be a little incoherent, as one minute they’re correctly describing the USA as agreement-incapable, and the next they’re trying to reach an agreement with the same party they described as being incapable of one.

Russia has repeatedly warned that it might, perhaps, possibly respond if British weapons kept being used against it. And its warnings have been repeatedly ignored. But Russia never seems to draw the correct lesson from that process.

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Air Power Idiocy

What do air power advocates, American tax protestors, religious conservatives, and NATO strategists all have in common? The foolish idea that with just a little external assistance, the people will rise up and overthrow their government:

Early this year, Ukrainian officials came to President Volodymyr Zelensky with a risky new plan to end the war with Russia. It would require expanding their bombing campaign to include a set of targets and a class of weapons they had long avoided. In addition to Ukraine’s ongoing strikes against Russian military bases, oil refineries, supply lines, and logistics hubs, the officials wanted to launch waves of AI-enabled drones at Moscow’s airports, hoping to stop international carriers from flying in and out of the Russian capital, according to two sources with direct knowledge of the plan, which has not been previously reported.

In short, they wanted to plan a mass terror attack on Russian airports to completely shut down all civilian flights in and out of Moscow as a way to ramp up pressure and make Russian civilians in the capital city feel the consequences of the war.

It’s remarkable that military planners even entertain these ridiculous notions that never, ever, work. The idea has been around since the 1920s when it was first conceived by an Italian general named Giulio Douhet. It will probably not escape your attention that despite having first access to this strategery, Italy has not won any wars since the publication of The Command of the Air in 1921. Nor has ever it worked anywhere from Germany to Vietnam to Gaza.

Contra the air power theory, bombing tends to cause the people to support the regime in charge and turn to it for protection. It doesn’t ever make them want to surrender to the people bombing them or accede to their wishes.

And in preemptive answer to the obvious rebuttal, Russia isn’t bombing civilian targets in Kiev to turn the Ukrainian people against Zelensky and the Kiev regime. It’s a) payback for Ukraine’s attacks on civilians and b) a warning to the Kiev regime’s NATO supporters.

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Don’t They Know They’re Losing?

Iran is engaging in some very unusual behavior for a side that we are reliably and repeatedly losing the war in the Gulf.

Iran has delivered an ULTIMATUM to the United States and states the U.S. has “3 – 4 weeks” to meet all of its demands or Iran “will severely escalate in the Strait of Hormuz” and launch its planned preemptive strike on US-Backed Gulf Infrastructure, and US / ISRAELI assets.

Iran’s demands include:

  • $300 billion in reconstruction funds
  • Full release of Iran’s frozen assets of up to $120 billion
  • Lifting of the U.S. naval blockade
  • End to the war across all fronts, including Gaza and Lebanon
  • Accepting Iran’s permanent control of the Strait of Hormuz, including up to 7% of transit fees
  • The lifting of all US sanctions on Iranian oil, petrochemical products, and gas

Of course, we’re also being told that Ukraine is winning the EU/NATO’s war against Russia despite having lost over one-third of its population, 20 percent of its territory, and living without heat or power.

I always wondered how the German people didn’t realize how badly they were losing on both the Eastern and Western Fronts. I don’t wonder about that anymore.

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Rumblings in the East

A US general is removed from duty two months early:

Reports are circulating this morning claiming Lt. Gen. Charles D. Costanza, the Commanding General of the U.S. Army’s V Corps, forward based out of Camp Kościuszko, Poland and tasked with the defense of NATO’s Eastern Front, has been removed from command.

NATO’s “eastern Front” is Russia.

The reports allege there has been no official reason given (to the public) for this removal.

The reports conclude that the General had “only two months remaining” on his tenure.

Many, MANY, questions are being asked about this. What did the General do — or refuse to do — that caused his alleged removal?

Clown World wants NATO to go to war with Russia. Their pet politicians will do as they are told, but only to the limits of their capabilities, which are barely capable of keeping the lid on their own captive peoples. Which means that whatever false flags are utilized by the European militaries will have to be overseen, if not necessarily assisted directly, by the US military in Europe.

And while most US generals are not courageous in the political sense, they are not stupid and they are not suicidal. One of the more fascinating things about the various US military defeats is how few casualties have been taken by the US military, even when it is losing. That is a sign that everything isn’t lost as far as the military goes, and I strongly suspect that the generals are very actively obstructing the Trump administration and the other shot-callers for Clown World.

Which may be why Gen. Costanza was removed from command. But I very much doubt they’re going to find any American general willing to help start a completely unnecessary war with Russia that will almost certainly lead to defeat and the Russian occupation of Germany.

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Translation: The Baltics Will Attack Russia

NATO strategists really assume that the rest of the world is stupid:

U.S. intelligence reports raised new alarms that Russian President Vladimir Putin could provoke a NATO nation with a limited attack as early as this fall, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Aug. 6.

According to WSJ, officials in Washington previously believed that an attack on a NATO ally would not occur amid Russia’s preoccupation with its war in Ukraine. The new-found belief by U.S. intelligence matches a chorus of similar warnings made by European officials in recent months.

In June, the head of Germany’s army, Lieutenant General Christian Freuding, cautioned that Russia might have the capabilities to strike NATO countries within the next three years. According to WSJ, U.S. officials believe that a large-scale hybrid-warfare attack, or even limited land incursion, may come between the fall of this year and 2029.

The latest intelligence report comes amid warnings from European countries that Russia may also attempt to use false flag-style attacks using Ukrainian-made drones to strike critical infrastructure in the Baltic region.

The whole thing is ridiculous. Russia has the ability to strike every single NATO country, including the USA, right now. And Russia doesn’t require any false flags in order to strike back against the NATO countries already attacking it, including Germany, France, and the UK.

Frankly, Russian forbearance has been astonishing. The Clown World puppets ruling over their European satrapies are fortunate that Vladimir Putin, and not one of his many more militant supporters, is the one calling the shots in Moscow.

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Air Supremacy Established

But not in the Middle East, in the Gulf, or in Iran. In Ukraine:

Numerous reports are coming in from several different geographic areas of Ukraine claiming “Ukraine has no more air defenses.” Those reports go on to say that Russian missiles and drones “are not being intercepted AT ALL.”

Last night in Kiev, Russia targeted the capital with 4 Zircon/Oniks missiles, 24 Iskander-M/S-400 missiles, and 115 strike UAVs including Shahed (mostly jet-powered), Gerbera, and Italmas types, as well as “Parodiya” decoy drones (98 shot down). The Ukrainian Air Force reported that air defense forces failed to shoot down any Russian missiles overnight.

This morning, Russian Combat Aircraft had complete freedom over the war zone, carrying Fuel-Air-Bombs (FABs) directly to the front lines to blow up Ukraine positions, without being fired upon even once by surface to air defenses. Russia now has absolute air superiority at the front, Russian bombers are flying for the first time since 2023 right up to the front lines again – which makes it far easier to drop heavy bombs.

With this new development, the last Ukrainian fortress belt in the Donbass will fall in the autumn.

The boots on the ground are still necessary to take the ground and win the war. But the key component has now been established.

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The Aerial Blockade of Odessa

I’ve always thought Odessa is Russia’s primary objective. And now they’re using 5GW to enforce an aerial blockade of Ukraine’s most important ports, including Odessa:

I just returned from Odesa, where an unprecedented Russian aerial offensive has completely blocked Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea, threatening an economic disaster that, at the moment, appears underestimated by international media. In the city, one witnesses paradoxical scenes, with Russian drones and missiles flying over beaches full of swimmers, or being shot down off the coast, in view of thousands of smartphones pointed at the sky.

For about ten days now, Moscow has begun systematically targeting all vessels approaching the port, with no regard for nationality. Now, neither captains nor shipowners dare to approach the three major Ukrainian ports: Odessa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdenny.

For Ukrainian farmers, it risks being a disaster. With exports blocked at the peak of the harvest season, their warehouses are overflowing, and agricultural commodity prices in the country have collapsed. With the sunflower harvest starting in just a few days, the situation risks becoming critical.

After having been targeted by it for decades, Russia and Iran clearly understand how to wage economic war better than the West.

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The EU is a Pirate State

Send in the Marines…

European states have developed a mechanism that allows them to sell confiscated Russian oil without transferring the proceeds to its rightful owners, according to a decision in the official journal of the EU. European countries intend to dispose of seized Russian oil without transferring the proceeds to its owners; the corresponding decision was published in the official journal of the European Union, reports RIA News.

Before the adoption of the new package of sanctions, the embargo prohibited the purchase, import and transportation of Russian energy resources, but there was no mechanism for selling goods without transferring profits to the owner. The new amendments introduce this possibility for the first time. The mechanism will allow European countries to remove confiscated products from the ban, sell them to third parties and keep the proceeds for themselves.

I seem to recall something about “the shores of Tripoli”. The US Marines were sent there to deal with a piracy problem, and now we’ve got the European Union literally operating as an oil-pirating operation.

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