Tag: politics

The British Conservatives are about to learn the lesson that US conservatives learned in the 2016 election.

Voters who back the Brexit Party at the next election would be helping put Jeremy Corbyn in No 10, Jacob Rees-Mogg warned last night.

The Leader of the House of Commons emphatically ruled out an alliance between the Tories and Nigel Farage in a snap poll.

He also issued a clear warning of the consequences for the Tories of Brexit not happening on October 31, saying the Brexit Party would be ‘full steam ahead’.

‘I don’t think a deal works,’ Mr Rees-Mogg told a Daily Telegraph event last night. ‘If we haven’t left by October 31, the Brexit Party won’t want to do a deal with us. If we have failed, the Brexit Party is full steam ahead.’

Urging Brexit Party supporters back to the Tory fold, he warned the audience to ‘think very hard’ before voting for it.

He added: ‘If you vote for the Brexit Party at the next election it is a vote effectively for Jeremy Corbyn.’

People stuck on binary analyses never see the third option coming. They also never seem to grasp that most people prefer open and avowed enemies to unreliable and traitorous allies.

If the leaders of the Conservative Party had any brains and actually valued political power, they would do two things. First, encourage Scottish independence. The only reason Labour ever had any power in Great Britain was due to the strong inclination of the Scots toward the Left. Once the Scottish electorate is excised from the British Parliament, Labour becomes as irrelevant as the Liberal Democrats have been historically.

Second, do a deal with the Brexit Party and build up a powerful Leave majority whether Brexit has taken place or not.

The fact that the Conservative leadership refuses to do either of these perfectly obvious things demonstrates very clearly that they are not serious about any of their professed principles. Like US conservatives, they have failed to conserve anything. They fully merit their future failure.

Republicans are demographically finished. Again.

For decades, the Republicans have told their voters that they were going to clamp down on illegal immigration and address the legal immigration policies that have facilitated this takeover. They have made excuse after excuse for not fulfilling those promises and now that lack of action is turning Texas blue one district at a time.

It won’t stop with these districts. District 14 in Texas is to the south of district 22. It is currently 52{9576e478f725cceae1d2658658ad3e64422d2ca740094a2fb07c0611fe338f11} white and 25{9576e478f725cceae1d2658658ad3e64422d2ca740094a2fb07c0611fe338f11} Latino. Just as in other districts, Congressman Weber has seen no serious effort from Democrats since taking office. This will soon change.

Districts 22 and 23 will turn blue in 2020 and/or 2022. Districts 14, 27, and 10 will follow suit by 2026. After this, the dominoes will fall one by one.

What is truly stunning about this situation is that many of these same congressman, whose party is being replaced in Texas due solely to immigration, are actually voting for increased immigration. Congressmen Hurd, Olson, Flores, and Randy Weber  all voted for HR 1044 – a bill to import almost unlimited amounts of H1B tech visa workers from India and Pakistan.

At the statewide level, it is possible for incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn to win reelection to a final term in 2020, but if a good Democratic candidate emerges it will be a toss-up. After that, Senator Cruz will have a tough road to get reelected in 2024. In the unlikely event that he is successful, he will be the last Republican Senator from Texas.

Now, the author is correct that Republicans should have shut down immigration into Texas and they fully merit being voted out of office on the basis of their failure to do so. However, his dire predictions are likely too negative, because as usual, they fail to account for the continued shift of white voters towards the Republican Party.

With the increased demographic changes, the Democratic Party is shifting ever-further leftward and becoming increasingly anti-white. This is driving whites into the Republican Party, and towards nationalism, at a rate that is at least potentially capable of making up for the adulteration of the overall electorate.

Of course, the fact that Republicans resist embracing their identity as the white party and insist ever more furiously – and ever less convincingly – on their cuckery and civic nationalism tends to disguise this second transformation, but it must nevertheless be accounted for if one is to make reasonable predictions about future elections.

Few races are as convoluted as the one in North Carolina’s Ninth Congressional District, which is — 10 months after Election Day 2018 — the last vote of the midterm elections. Experts see the race between State Senator Dan Bishop, a Republican, and the entrepreneur Dan McCready, a Democrat, as a test of President Trump’s clout in suburban areas.

50.7{9576e478f725cceae1d2658658ad3e64422d2ca740094a2fb07c0611fe338f11} 96,081 Dan Bishop (R) 
48.7{9576e478f725cceae1d2658658ad3e64422d2ca740094a2fb07c0611fe338f11} 92,144 Dan McCready (D)

It would appear President Trump’s clout in suburban areas remains strong. A month ago, according to the polls, Bishop was 17 points down. An eighteen-point turnaround in response to Trump’s campaigning is impressive.

The British Prime Minister is putting an end to the scheming of the Remain Parliament:

Boris Johnson will suspend Parliament tonight for five weeks amid Remainer fury at claims he could try to sabotage their No Deal law.

Downing Street confirmed prorogation will happen this evening even if – as expected – the PM loses his latest effort to force a snap election.

The move was condemned as a ‘disgrace’ by Labour, even though a rebel law ruling out No Deal by Halloween will be on the statute books by then.

It will spare Mr Johnson from having to give evidence to the powerful cross-party Liaison Committee on Wednesday – as well as preventing further rebellions designed to tie the government’s hands more tightly.

Mr Johnson is scrambling to find a way of sidestepping rebel legislation ordering him to beg the EU for an extension if no agreement has been agreed by October 19.

I don’t understand what all the need for the drama concerning the extension request is. If I was Boris Johnson, I would suspend Parliament, obey the law by dutifully requesting a one-day extension to November 1, 2019, announce the inevitable rejection of the request by the EU, then proceed with a general election and a No-Deal Brexit while the Remainers waste their time arguing that the one-day extension isn’t the specified 90120-day extension.

This isn’t that hard.

UPDATE: The poison dwarf, aka Speaker of the House of Commons, (((John Bercow))) is on his way out.

Commons Speaker jumps before he is pushed saying he will stand down amid huge Tory backlash at his handling of Brexit – but insists he won’t go until October 31 AFTER the UK’s departure is delayed. Speaker John Bercow has dramatically announced that he is standing down the the Commons next month. Mr Bercow was facing the Tories running a candidate against him at the election amid fury at Brexit handling. He had caused fury by bending House of Commons procedures so Remainer rebel law could be passed 

Apparently Creepy Joe hadn’t fed on the flesh of young Haitian children recently enough:

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden’s left eye filled up with blood while answering a question at CNN’s climate town hall Wednesday night. Biden was answering a question about fracking when the blood became noticeable. He then turned to take a question about China’s role in carbon emissions, and the blood was difficult to miss.

There is no way the DNC is going to permit him to be the nominee. Not when he might literally dissolve into a puddle of gore on national TV without even being staked.

Minnesota’s freshman congresswoman is not only a liar and a bigamist, she’s also incestuous:

The scandal has pushed the incredible panoply of scandals we have covered in depth on Power Line into the background: the identity fraud, the marriage fraud, the immigration fraud, the tax fraud.

In the past three weeks I have circled back to interview sources whom I have found to be highly reliable in the Omar saga. They open a window onto the scandals from the perspective of Ahmed Hirsi, her long-time partner and the father of her three children. According to sources, Hirsi is telling friends:

• that he will not go to jail for Omar;

• that while Omar did indeed marry her brother (Ahmed Elmi) for fraudulent purposes, Hirsi did not know at the time that she had married Elmi;

• that Omar is threatening Hirsi he would be in trouble along with her if the truth were to come out;

• that Omar has asked him to state publicly that all is well with their marriage even though it is completely done and finished; and

• that in fact they are living apart and have been divorced under Islamic law (although they remain legally married).

This is the inevitable price of Scandicucking. I guarantee that the good people of the Minnesota DFL party are wondering how on Earth they found themselves in this extraordinarily embarrassing position. And it all traces back to their desperate need to be extra nice to the poor little dark people in order to prove how totally not-racist they are.

The only real question about the first cannibal to be elected to Congress is if he’ll be representing Utah or Minnesota.

Tories are discovering who the fake Conservatives are as they abandon both their party and their nation for the EU:

Boris Johnson saw his Commons majority wiped out today as a former minister dramatically crossed the floor of the Commons to join the Lib Dems.

Phillip Lee walked away from his colleagues in the chamber and went to sit with Jo Swinson’s pro-EU group.

The incendiary step came as the Tories descended into civil war ahead of the huge showdown over No Deal Brexit tonight.

It looks as if the General Election that Nigel Farage was hoping for is now in the cards.

There are polls and there are observations. These days, the latter are much more reliable:

Once upon a time, long, long ago, public opinion polls may have reflected, however faintly, some generalization of public opinion.  For a multitude of reasons, that is no longer true.  To demonstrate that point, compare the August 29 Rasmussen poll showing President Trump’s approval rating of 47 percent with the Quinnipiac reported approval rating of 38 percent.  Even more irrational are the Quinnipiac poll result that whatever is left of Joe Biden would beat Trump 54 percent to 38 percent in a general election and the Economist poll number that asserts that 55 percent of the public thinks the country is headed in the wrong direction.  It is a near certainty that none of those numbers reflects reality.

So, discarding the meaningless political polls, I went to the most accurate opinion poll I am aware of for my pre-quadrennial presidential forecast: the Washington County (Pa.) Agricultural Fair.

After my 2016 visit to the fair, I reported that Trump was going to win Washington County big.  Why?  Enthusiasm was enormous.  Trump hats were everywhere.  People were wearing Trump shirts and Trump pins.  These were not all registered Republicans, either.  There was a large booth selling Trump merchandise and doing a land office business.  There was no similar Clinton enterprise.  The parking lot really told the story.  Literally thousands of pickup trucks, gun racks behind the seats, many with Trump stickers and campaign messages on bumpers and tailgates.  Mixed in were Mercedes and Lexus, many with similar stickers.  If Mercedes and Lexus made gun racks, they would have had those, too.

The County Fair Poll was pretty accurate.  Washington County turned out big: nearly 75 percent of its registered voters went to the polls, and they voted for President Trump with 60 percent of the vote.  That means a lot of registered Democrats voted for President Trump.

What does the early forecast for 2020 look like based on the 2019 Washington County Fair?  It looks as if President Trump will do even better than 2016.  I have never seen such enthusiasm, especially so far before an election.  More than 75,000 people attended the fair, and the crowd was a sea of MAGA and KAG hats, Trump shirts, Trump pins, you name it.

Even the New York Times is trying to caution its readers not to take the polls predicting the God-Emperor’s electoral demise too seriously:

Millions of Americans who did not like the president in 2016 now say they do. Over all, his personal favorability rating has increased by about 10 percentage points among registered voters since Election Day 2016, to 44 percent from 34 percent, according to Upshot estimates. 

AfD is relentlessly marching towards power in Germany:

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) came up short of victory in eastern state elections in Saxony and Brandenburg on Sunday, but still finished with its highest vote share ever, Politico reports.

Why it matters: The anti-immigrant, nationalist AfD is one of several far-right parties across Europe that have made significant gains at the expense of the political establishment, including in May’s European Parliament elections. Angela Merkel’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) remained the strongest party in Saxony with about 32{c54197dde12df2f558a2650e1cd4ae2483dbb80239d1e9c0b6d466bbef15f4fd}, while the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) held onto first place in Brandenburg with 27.2{c54197dde12df2f558a2650e1cd4ae2483dbb80239d1e9c0b6d466bbef15f4fd}, according to initial results.

Worth noting: The results are being viewed as a victory for AfD, but all parties have sworn not to work with the far right in a coalition government. That could be a difficult promise to keep, however, with vote share dispersed across a number of smaller parties.

The so-called “mainstream” parties will refuse to work with them, but they won’t be able to function effectively together because they have nothing in common beyond not being nationalists. For example, some of the obvious fracture points in the rossoverde alliance of PD and M5 in Italy are already beginning to expose themselves.

It’s always wise to put these predictions on the record well ahead of time, before the predictors start performing the Scott Adams two-step. The Z-Man contemplates the upcoming 2020 US Presidential election and confidently makes his call:

The 2020 presidential campaign will be two sides of the 60’s Boomer culture, facing off against one another in one final battle. The male side, represented by Donald Trump, is nostalgic for an America that no longer exists. Trump sees himself as this generation’s Ronald Reagan. Instead of morning in American, though, it is dusk in America. His tenure is a cargo cult of sorts. He and his supporters seem to think if they carry on like it is 1985, it will suddenly become 1985. Trump is pure nostalgia.

Warren is the feminine side of this battle. Unlike Trump, she is not pining for a return to Reagan’s America. She is all of the liberal Boomers in the 80’s and 90’s, who talked about the terribleness of Reaganism, while enjoying the benefits. Just as Boomer feminists talked like Betty Friedan, but lived like June Cleaver, this side of the Boomer political culture publicly hated Reagan and the 80’s economic boom, but privately benefited from it. The conscience of the 60’s was always forgiving….

I guarantee you she will run as the person who wrote the book, The Two Income Trap. And she will win. Trump, for all his stupidity, has known Warren was his big problem all along. That’s why he went after her two years ago.

I disagree, of course. I remain quite confident that President Trump will win in 2020, and by a bigger Electoral College margin than he did in 2016. And while I agree that Warren currently looks like the most likely Democratic nominee, I think it is too soon to declare that she will be the nominee, much less the eventual winner, let alone guarantee it. I’ve seen far too many media-anointed frontrunners wilt under the pressure of the actual caucuses and primaries to express any opinion on the matter yet.