Tag: Middle East

Pseudo-Escalation

From the Jerusalem Post:

  • The attack occurred in three major waves, with the second and third waves targeting Iranian drone and missile production sites, hitting over 20 targets.
  • Over 100 planes were involved in the 2000 k.m. attack, including the cutting-edge F-35, according to Walla.
  • The IDF confirmed the operation was over and that all mission goals had been achieved, with all planes returning safely home.
  • Iranian officials and media have been denying that Israeli airstrikes took place, saying explosions were a result of Iranian air defense; an Israeli official strenuously denied this to Ynet, saying, “This is a lie. Total failure – zero interceptions.”

No one tells the truth in wartime. But sending 100 planes more than 2,000 kilometers is an impressive technical feat, even though it tends to imply US involvement in refueling the planes; there are rumors that 10 US tanker aircraft were involved in supporting the strike.

What we can conclude from what little we have been told is that either a) Iran’s air defenses are less effective than Ukraine’s or b) Iran was not contesting the strikes. Given that there is a non-zero chance that at least one of the planes might have crashed without any enemy action at all, the fact that there were zero interceptions reported, zero planes shot down reported, and minimal casualties on both sides tends to suggest that this was more war kabuki meant to let Israel keep its word without actually escalating the situation.

For one reason or another, neither Israel nor Iran appear inclined to genuinely put the other’s genuine military capabilities to the test. It’s really remarkable that when no aircraft on either side dares show itself within 100 miles of the battlefield in Ukraine, that 100 Israeli warplanes should be able to fly 2,000 kilometers into Iranian airspace unmolested.

DISCUSS ON SG

Israel-Iran Round 3

The IDF is now bombing Iran:

Explosions have been heard across Tehran as IDF forces announce they have launched retaliatory strikes in the region. The Israeli military has said it is conducting ‘precise strikes’ on military targets in Iran in response to what it called ‘the continuous attacks from the regime in Iran against Israel’. There have been reports of at least five explosions that have rocked the city of Tehran, as well as loud blasts heard in the Damascus countryside and central region.

Do Iran’s air defense systems not work very well or are they holding them in reserve? That’s just one of many questions that spring to mind.

DISCUSS ON SG

The Leak was Real

Apparently Israel was genuinely observed making preparations to attack Iran on October 15th and 16th, but appears to have cancelled the attack for reasons that remain unknown, but are presumably related to the “earthquake” that was observed earlier this month.

The US has launched an investigation after highly classified intelligence reports about Israel’s preparations for possible strikes on Iran were leaked online, CNN reported on Saturday, citing three people familiar with the matter. The apparent security breach occurred amid an intense standoff between Iran and Israel – which has vowed to respond to a barrage of missiles fired by Tehran earlier this month.

On Friday, two documents were posted to the anonymous Telegram channel Middle East Spectator, which covers events in the region and is critical of Israel.

The first of the files, apparently prepared by the Pentagon’s National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, says the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) “continued key munitions preparations and covert UAV activity on October 16 almost certainly for a strike on Iran.”

The second document contains a detailed report about a “large-force employment exercise” conducted by the Israeli Air Force on October 15-16.

An unnamed US official confirmed the authenticity of the documents to CNN, describing the leak as “deeply concerning.” The official told the network that the ongoing probe is aimed at determining who had access to the top secret files that eventually made their way to social media.

The plan reportedly involved a combination of ballistic missiles and air-to-surface missiles, although considerably fewer than were involved in the Iranian attack on Israel. Which, of course, tends to raise suspicions that some of them may have been armed with nuclear warheads, and may explain why the US intelligence source decided to try to stop the attack by leaking news of it.

DISCUSS ON SG

KIA Confirmed

Hamas has confirmed yesterday’s IDF reports of the death of its leader, Yahya Sinwar:

The Palestinian militant group Hamas has acknowledged the death of its leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza, praising him as a “holy warrior” and “fallen martyr.”

The announcement was made by a senior Hamas official, Khalil Hayya, in a televised address on Friday. Sinwar has “sacrificed his life to the cause of our liberation,” Hayya stated, describing the late leader of the group as a “steadfast, brave and intrepid” man.

So, if the “head of the snake” strategy works, the deaths of Sinwar, al-Arouri, Haniyah, and Sharif should bring a rapid end to Israel’s war against the Palestinians in Gaza. However, the dichotomy between the way the IDF and Hamas describe Sinwar’s death tends to cast doubt on the two sides being able to even share a similar perspective.

  • He met his end standing brave, with his head held high, holding his firearm, firing until the last breath, until the last moment of his life.
  • How Israel slaughtered the Butcher: Rookie soldiers stumbled across Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, engaged in gun battle, tracked him down as he cowered in empty building… then blasted it with a tank.

I’ve never seen the point in constantly attempting to portray the enemy as some sort of coward. A suicide bombing targeting civilians is certainly much more evil and malicious than a Medal of Honor-winning soldier heroically jumping on a grenade to save his squadmates, but is it any less courageous? I don’t think so.

A false portrayal of the enemy not only smacks of weakness, but violates Sun Tzu’s admonition to know the enemy. Which is why I think the IDF may have made another PR mistake by publicizing the video of Sinwar’s last moments. Throwing a stick at a drone might be pointless, perhaps even a bit pathetic, but it is a final act of defiance of the sort that most warriors will tend to admire. It reminds me of a poster that I wanted when I was young, which my parents wisely refused to let me buy for my bedroom.

DISCUSS ON SG

Not Much News

You’d barely know there was an invasion of Lebanon at all based on the lack of media coverage of the ground war compared to the multiple big headlines of the continuing series of air strikes everywhere from Lebanon to Yemen, complete with the name and rank of the Hezbollah commander supposedly killed in the bombing. I don’t think we can necessarily read too much into that, except for two things.

  1. Where are the names and identities of all the Hezbollah commanders killed and captured on the ground?
  2. It’s usually not a good sign if one has to call in the reserves in the early stages of an offensive.
  3. The IDF has already committed more troops than it did in the 2006 war.

Israel has been conducting ground incursions into Lebanese territory. The Israeli military said a fourth division is now taking part in the incursion, which has expanded to the west, but operations still appear to be confined to a narrow strip along the border. The 146th Division, made up of reservists, had entered southern Lebanon, in an apparent escalation. 

The IDF committed five divisions to Gaza, where Hamas has been defeated but not pacified. The fact that it’s already committed four divisions to Lebanon, including a reserve division, in barely the first week of combat, doesn’t prove that things are not going well there, but does tend to suggest that they are not. I expect we’ll find out soon enough; if the IDF declares its limited objectives were achieved and withdraws before the end of October, that will imply that it was decisively defeated by Hezbollah.

On the other hand, if the IDF reserves rapidly proceed up to the Litani River and the missile barrages come to an end, we’ll know that it won the latest round. Everything else is just rhetoric.

UPDATE: Curiouser and curiouser. A conspiracy site was reporting that Israeli Defense Minister had been killed in the recent Iranian missile attack, along with a lot more people than Israel has admitted. I assumed it was the usual nonsense, but now I’m not so sure.

WASHINGTON, Oct 8 (Reuters) – Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has canceled a Wednesday visit to the Pentagon, the Pentagon said, as Israeli media reported Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wanted first to speak with U.S. President Joe Biden. The surprise cancellation on Tuesday comes amid soaring tensions between Israel and Iran as Israel weighs options to respond to Tehran’s missile attack last week, its second this year against Israel.

DISCUSS ON SG

Don’t Tell Them About the Helmets

Apparently it is now a “huge controversy” to display your nationality:

New York Jets head coach Robert Saleh sparked controversy during the team’s NFL game against the Minnesota Vikings in London on Sunday. The 45-year-old was spotted on the sidelines at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium wearing a Lebanese flag below the Nike logo on the sleeve of his team hoodie.

The night before Sunday’s game – the first of the NFL’s international fixtures this season – Israeli bombing continued on Beirut, the Lebanese capital, amid the Israel-Hezbollah war. The Hezbollah stronghold in south Beirut was hit by more than 30 strikes overnight, which were heard across the city, with smoke still seen billowing from the site after dawn, Lebanon’s official National News Agency said.

Saleh, who is of Lebanese heritage, previously wore a similar patch last October but his decision to bear the flag Sunday raised eyebrows as the anniversary of the beginning of the war in Gaza approaches.

Saleh is Lebanese. Naturally, he doesn’t support Israel invading and attacking his homeland. But he’s not doing anything more than EVERY SINGLE NFL PLAYER is doing; look at the back of their helmets. Most players have US flag stickers because they are US citizens, but foreign players wear the flags of their countries; there is a German tight end – I don’t recall which team – but he has a German flag on the back of his helmet.

If the NFL is smart, they’ll leave this one alone. Because you know Robert Kraft is just itching to turn every Sunday into a massive advertisement for supporting Israel’s wars against a) Palestine, b) Syria, c) Lebanon, d) Iran, and now e) Pakistan? I have to admit, I’m lost on the latter.

It’s too bad Martin van Creveld felt the need to suspend his blog in August, as it would be very good to get his thoughts on the matter as a military historian. I’ve been reading his intriguing history of Israel, The Land of Blood and Honey, and I suspect he might not be very optimistic about the way in which the Netanyahu regime has gone about waging its wars, which appears to be based upon a strategy of escalate, then escalate again.

DISCUSS ON SG

IDF Attacks Russia?

I assumed this report of an Israeli attack on a Russian air base in Syria had to be some sort of war-porn fiction.

ISRAEL is reportedly hitting “terrorist targets in western Syria and along the Syria coastline.”

So far they’ve hit in Latakia and Tartus, home ports of the Russian Mediterranean Flotilla.

Also the Russian Hmeimim Air Base.

The Russian ammo stockpile there is exploding.

Russian air defenses are reportedly firing at Israeli aircraft.

The strikes occurred an hour after the arrival of an Iranian plane belonging to “Qashim Fars” airline.

The source of the bombing is not yet confirmed, but it reportedly involved 30 missiles fired from naval battleships between 3:55 and 4:41 AM.

However, the mainstream reports do at least confirm that the IDF attacked a weapons depot “near” the Russian air base.

Israeli conducted strikes near the Syrian coast this morning, with explosions reported in the vicinity of the Russian-operated Khmeimim Air Base, near the city of Latakia. At this stage, it’s not clear if the Russian airfield was actually hit, deliberately or otherwise — which would be a first. Either way, however, the attacks represent a notable escalation in terms of Israel’s willingness to prosecute targets that are very close to this key Russian military facility in Syria and a major point of pride for Moscow.

Initial accounts from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a U.K.-based information office, describe attacks in the coastal Latakia province, with targets including an ammunition warehouse said to be near Jablah city, not far from Khmeimim Air Base. Weapons supplied by Iran and destined for Hezbollah, its Lebanese ally and proxy, often are delivered first to Syria, for onward transit to Lebanon. The suggestion here is that Iranian munitions headed for the militant group were targeted soon after they arrived in Syria.

So, it’s unclear. And while Russia Today doesn’t have anything about the attack – or near-attack – this announcement today may be related.

The Russian ambassador to Israel, Anatoly Viktorov, has urged Russian citizens to leave the Jewish state in view of the increasing tensions in the region.

They may have invented the word, but I find it very, very difficult to imagine that the Israelis would be so full of chutzpah that they would choose to go hot with the Russians. Even the US neocons have had more sense than to push for that. I mean, I don’t see how the IDF can even hope to handle the Iranians with or without the US military.

I sincerely hope this is an exaggeration, if not a complete fabrication.

UPDATE: It was an exaggeration. But it was pretty close, being only 1.5 kilometers away from the base.

Reports of the Russian Hmeimim Military Base being hit by an Israeli airstrike are false. We have geolocated the video and photo. The photo was taken from the second or third floor of ‘al-Salom Gym’, 35.3721083, 35.9250677, Jableh, Syria. The most likely areas of target are shown on the map as “1” and “2” – although the Russian base (shown on the map) is approximately 1,500 meters away from either target site.

DISCUSS ON SG

The Same Failed Strategy

If what we’re hearing in the news reports concerning the US-Israeli strategy is even remotely true, the Tel Aviv regime is going to fail as comprehensively, and quite possibly, as catastrophically, as the Kiev regime. First, as Larry Johnson points out, the IDF is spreading itself too thin by attacking on too many fronts.

Israel is not in a position to fight a multi-front war and it does not have the strategic depth to fight wars of attrition. And that’s exactly what it’s got itself into now. It’s not going to be able to finish off Hezbollah in a week. It couldn’t even finish off Hamas in 12 months. It’s not going to be able to finish off Syria, finish off the Houthis or finish off Iran… That’s what Israel fails to understand. It does not have the ability to sustain itself in these kinds of operations for an extended period of time.

The idea, of course, is to get themselves overwhelmed – or at least present the appearance of being overwhelmed – and thereby force the USA to bail them out. This isn’t an unreasonable concept based on the history of the Arab-Israeli wars, as going back to the Ottoman Empire, an external force has always been stepping in to freeze any conflict that looked like it was heading for a transformative conclusion, whether it was the Ottomans, the British, the Soviets, or the USA. And, of course, invading Iran on behalf of Israel has been the primary objective of the US-based neocons since Michael Ledeen turned “Faster, Please” into the “Carthago delenda est” for them back in 2005.

Thus far, no Western leader has endorsed the call for an Iranian referendum. Now is the time. If the mullahs unexpectedly accept it, they will either receive confirmation of their claims to legitimacy, or be permitted to peacefully leave their posts. If they reject it, then no Western leader will be able to dismiss the calls for democratic revolution in Iran, and a united West can do for Iran what was done for Ukraine.

“A united West can do for Iran what was done for Ukraine.” That certainly did not age well; I’m absolutely certain the Iranian people do not see Ukraine as a positive model for themselves and that they would very much like to avoid the fate of the Ukrainians.

What struck me most, however, is the way that the neocons are relying upon their usual strategy for winning an Iran-Israeli war. What strategy is that? You guessed it: regime change. That’s why the media is relentlessly pushing the rhetoric that the missile attack “failed,” that it was “an embarrassment,” and that the Tehran regime was “humiliated.” The idea is to cause the government to collapse and be replaced by one more willing to surrender, just like Russia has surrendered due to all of the failures, embarrassments, and humiliations endured by Vladimir Putin over the last two years.

This is, of course, retarded. But as far as I can tell, and insofar as the global media has specifically articulated it, that’s the actual objective here. Note the video in which a British Sky News reporter asks an Iranian professor if Iran lost a “war” to Israel – by which he clearly meant an exchange of air and missile strikes, not an actual war on the ground – could the Iranian regime survive? The professor just laughed at him, and rightly so; this is a government that survived 600,000 fatalities and eight years of very bloody air, sea, and land war in defeating the invading Iraqi forces despite the massive assistance provided to Saddam Hussein by the USA, the French, and the Arab states.

It is evident that the US-Israeli plan for victory is to hope that the other side simply doesn’t have the stomach for any direct conflict that lasts more than a few weeks. But while that plan has worked in the past, Persians are no more Arabs than the Afghans or the Russians are.

UPDATE: Apparently this is the Dahiya doctrine, conceived by an IDF Chief of General Staff, Col. Gabi Siboni. Either he read too much Douhet or he didn’t pay enough attention to the complete failure of the Allied air campaign against Germany during WWII to achieve its objectives, let alone force regime change.

DISCUSS ON SG

An Incoherent Narrative

Both Israel and the USA are crowing that the Iranian missile attack did absolutely no harm whatsoever to Israel. Ha ha ha, so very funny!

  • Israel’s defence system halts barrage of missiles as Iran’s attack falls flat.
  • In a major embarrassment for Iran, the US said that the missile volley was ‘defeated and ineffective’, with just one reported death – a Palestinian man who was killed by shrapnel in the West Bank.
  • Iran’s Missile Barrage Fails Again
  • Like its previous attack in April of 2024, the onslaught failed to leave a mark on the Jewish state.
  • IDF says no harm… It emphasized that there was no damage to the “competence” of the Israeli Air Force in the attack, and said the IAF’s planes, air defenses, and air traffic control were operating normally.

In some reports, there is whiplash, as the narrative lurches from one extreme to the other:

As Iran unleashed a salvo of missiles, ordered by its supreme leader Ali Khamenei, falling projectiles burned like comets against the night sky after the rockets were intercepted by Israel’s ‘Iron Dome’ defensive system. The sickening attack, which Israel has vowed to exact revenge for…

What is “sickening” about an embarrassingly “ineffective” attack “failed to leave a mark” and harmed almost no one? And how is one salvo of missiles a “major escalation” in response to a) days of relentless bombing of a foreign country and b) a ground invasion of a foreign country?

Meanwhile, Iran claims to have fired Fattah-2 hypersonic missiles, and there is video evidence of at least three hitting their targets. So unless Iran did not actually fire the missiles and the videos are from Ukraine, the IDF is obviously lying; the best US systems have not been able to shoot down any Russian hypersonics in Ukraine. That being said, it’s highly unlikely that any F-35s were destroyed on the ground and the Iranian claim that “a large number of tanks were destroyed” can almost certainly be dismissed in the absence of any satellite imagery or videos showing the wrecks.

However, the one thing that can be believed amidst all the ridiculous lies and hypocrisy is the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps warning about what will happen if Israel doesn’t heed the Iranian message: “If the Zionist regime responds to our attack, our next strikes will be more destructive.”

It’s clear from the incoherency of the Clown World narrative that they’re not sure what to do in light of the usual rhetoric falling so flat. When NATO “allies” are calling for a UN invasion of Israel and most of the world is wondering how Russia, Belarus, and China are being sanctioned while Israel isn’t despite the customary media barrage, it’s clear that no amount of rhetoric will change the new power dynamic.

And what use is Israel’s so-called “Samson Option” in deterring the sovereign nations? Seeing Israel set off suitcase nukes in some European capitals in an attack that couldn’t possibly be blamed on them would be seen as a very fortunate development in Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran.

Regardless, the present small-scale war in the Middle East isn’t going to be settled by air strikes any more than the much larger-scale war in Ukraine will be. And it’s already evident that Hezbollah’s ability to engage on the ground hasn’t been seriously affected by the air war.

Hezbollah has launched more than 100 rockets into Israel, with the group claiming it has targeted troops massing on the border as the Israeli Defence Forces ordered more troops and armoured units to join its ground invasion of Lebanon. Hezbollah said this morning that its forces had confronted Israeli soldiers who were infiltrating the southern village of Adaisseh and forced them to retreat.

This is the fourth Israeli invasion of Lebanon since 1979. What it is supposed to accomplish that the others didn’t is very unclear at this time. As far as I can tell, the Israeli strategy is to continue escalating until the USA declares war on Iran, while hoping that Russia, Turkiye, and China all stand by and do nothing. That might have worked in 1991, or even as late as 2008, but I very much doubt it will do so in 2024. The tail may be able to wag the dog, but it’s a terrible idea when the dog is facing a bear.

And/or a dragon. China is very unhappy with the USA’s continued interference in its internal affairs, as a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry made clear yesterday.

Phoenix TV: The White House announced on its website the decision to provide around US$ 567 million military assistance to China’s Taiwan region. What’s China’s comment?

Lin Jian: The US again provides weapons to China’s Taiwan region, which seriously violates the one-China principle and the three China-US joint communiqués, especially the August 17 Communiqué of 1982. The move is in fact emboldening Lai Ching-te and the DPP authorities as they cling to the stance of “Taiwan independence” and make deliberate provocations on the one-China principle. This once again shows that the separatist moves for “Taiwan independence” and connivance and support for such moves from US-led external forces are the biggest threat facing cross-Strait peace and stability and cause the greatest disruption to the real status quo in the Taiwan Strait. Let me be clear, “Taiwan independence” separatism is a dead end and what the US has done to assist the “Taiwan independence” attempt by arming Taiwan will only backfire. We urge the US to earnestly abide by the one-China principle and the three China-US joint communiqués, and stop arming Taiwan in any form. No matter how many weapons the US provides to the Taiwan region, it will never weaken our firm will in opposing “Taiwan independence,” and safeguarding China’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

UPDATE: Apparently Hezbollah wasn’t just blowing smoke. Ground operations are always more costly than air operations in terms of human life. And while the Israelis claim to have killed 20 Hezbollah “operatives”, that’s an equation that favors the Hezbollah-Iranian alliance even if the number isn’t exaggerated. Martin van Creveld has repeatedly warned that Hezbollah’s light infantry is very good, even if they don’t have much in the way of armor or artillery, and absolutely no air support.

The IDF announced the first fatalities of Israel’s ground operation in Lebanon on Wednesday after eight soldiers were killed during battles against Hezbollah operatives in the south of the country.

It is perhaps worth noting that this means the first day of the invasion has already accounted for 6.6 percent of the 2006 war’s IDF fatalities. That indicates that if the current conflict lasts as long as the previous one, it will cost Israel about twice as much in terms of manpower. I find it hard to imagine that any objective that can be reasonably achieved will be worth that cost. If killing Lebanese is the goal, the air strikes have already accomplished that at a much lower cost to Israel.

DISCUSS ON SG

A Minimal Response

Iran appears to be continuing to sit tight, beyond a military response that appears to be small enough to be categorized as more of a diplomatic jab:

Israeli media are reporting that over 100 missiles have been fired into Israel – after Iran vowed on Saturday that Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah would be avenged. It also comes just hours after Israel launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon to carry out raids against Iranian-backed Hezbollah targets.

100 missiles sounds like a lot, and you certainly wouldn’t want them falling in your neighborhood, but to put them into context, Israel dropped considerably more explosives than that on a single apartment complex in Beirut last week.

UPDATE: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said Iran’s rocket attack against Israel was “totally unacceptable” and should be condemned by “the entire world.”

Oh, shut up already. Literally no one anywhere on the planet is fooled by this open hypocrisy. If you want to fight, then fight and accept the consequences. But this childish “I’m not touching you, you’re touching me” retardery just insults human intelligence.

DISCUSS ON SG