Tag: Middle East

When the Ships Aren’t Sunk

Think the Palestinians now regret not defending their land when they had the ability to do so? You know back in the early 20th century, there were Arab leaders and intellectuals saying: “They’re refugees from Europe. What harm could come of allowing them to live here among us?”

Israel will continue building illegal settlements in the West Bank in preparation for a “major” wave of Jewish immigration, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said. Israel’s most recent settlement expansion triggered rebukes from its Arab neighbors and Western partners.

“Today, many of our brothers and sisters around the world understand: This is our land and it will remain ours,” Netanyahu said in Jerusalem on Tuesday. “And when I say our land, every Jewish man and every Jewish woman, the door is open. We are waiting for you. We are preparing the door for major Aliyah (Jewish immigration to Israel).”

It is unclear whether the “major Aliyah” predicted by Netanyahu is actually coming. Israelis have emigrated in growing numbers since Hamas’ 2023 attack and the subsequent war on Gaza. More than 150,000 Israelis left the country from 2024 to 2025, according to a report by 972 magazine.

The Israeli prime minister spoke at an event organized by the Binyamin Regional Council, which governs 47 Jewish settlements in the West Bank. All of these settlements, which are located outside Israel’s 1967 borders, are considered illegal by the UN, and Israel’s transfer of population to them has been deemed a breach of the Geneva Convention by the International Criminal Court.

Although the Israeli state sometimes pre-authorizes the construction of settlements, they typically begin as outposts on Palestinian land, until they are retroactively legalized by the Israeli government. During his speech on Tuesday, Netanyahu boasted that his government has established and regularized “104 settlements and 160 farms and we continue to do more.”

The Israeli historian Martin van Creveld pointed out that immigration is war in his landmark essay of that name. It always has been. The Visigoths who sacked Rome were refugees seeking refuge from the Huns. The time known as The Movement of Peoples is also known as a period of relentless wars.

Pity on the perceived unfortunate often comes at a terrible price that is paid later in blood by the innocent and the undeserving.

I don’t think we’re going to see peace in the Middle East anytime soon. Especially now that the US security structure has failed and Syria no longer serves as a buffer state in between Israel and Turkey. Remember, the Turks have a long-standing claim on the West Bank too.

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The War on US Farmers

The utter idiocy of participating in Israel’s war on Iran is being driven home hard in the negative effects on America’s ability to feed itself:

US grain farmers have been plunged into their worst financial crisis in four decades as the war with Iran drives up diesel and fertilizer costs, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday. The latest price shock compounds years of weak crop prices and falling incomes.

The mounting pressure follows the US-Israeli attack on Iran in February, which prompted Tehran to largely block commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route that previously served about a fifth of the world’s energy supplies. The resulting surge in energy costs is hitting the US heartland ahead of November’s midterm elections, which will determine control of Congress.

Farmers across the Corn Belt have been particularly hard hit by soaring diesel and crop nutrient prices since the military campaign began, the FT reported. Nebraska Farmers Union president John Hansen described the downturn as the sector’s worst since the 1980s.

”Inputs are way out of whack,” Nebraska corn and soybean farmer Matt Bailey told the newspaper. He said a phosphorus-rich fertilizer used at planting now costs more than $900 per ton, compared with about $470 a decade ago. Diesel prices have also surged after the conflict disrupted energy markets and sharply reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The nationwide average has climbed to about $5.45 per gallon from $3.81 before the war, according to US Energy Information Administration data.

”The [Iran] war has made so much uncertainty for us as farmers,” Pam Johnson, a former president of the National Corn Growers Association, told the FT. “It’s projected that farmers aren’t going to make any money for the next two years.”

And this is before the financial crisis hits this fall. This is why the real America sought to avoid foreign entanglements and restricted immigration for decades after the 1920s; foreigners with influence always seek to use other nations’ more powerful militaries for their own purposes and on their own behalf. And this is almost always to the detriment of the people of those nations.

We all know the retarded rhetoric about how “X is crazy!” and “X cannot be permitted to obtain a nuclear weapon”. Not one single American is going to give a damn about the rhetoric when gasoline costs $10 per gallon and they can’t afford to feed their families.

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Foreign Affairs Throws in the Towel

Clown World is beginning to grasp that the US military can’t even defeat a second-rate power anymore.

For 47 years, the Islamic Republic has bedeviled U.S. presidents. The 1979 Iran hostage crisis helped doom Jimmy Carter’s reelection bid. The Iran-contra scandal in the mid-1980s badly tarnished Ronald Reagan’s foreign policy record. And Barack Obama’s 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), led to an unprecedented situation in which the U.S. Congress invited a foreign leader, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to Washington to argue against it.

In February, when he launched his war against Iran, President Donald Trump declared that he intended to break this embarrassing pattern once and for all. By crushing Iran militarily and effecting regime change, he boasted that whereas other presidents had only talked about the Iranian threat, he was taking decisive action to end it. But six months later, Trump has become yet another U.S. president facing a dangerous humiliation related to Iran; the fallout from his excursion threatens his party’s prospects in the midterm elections. Now, perhaps in desperation, Trump is attempting to squeeze an economic noose around Tehran. But as it is constructed, this economic-pressure operation poses a greater threat to U.S. credibility than it does to Iran’s economy.

The irony of Trump’s failed war on Iran—and his stop-start negotiations to try to end it—is that it has so severely weakened Washington’s ability to exert pressure on Tehran that no future administration will ever be able to revert to the traditional U.S. playbook. But that could also be the only upside of a war that has already exacted a heavy toll on U.S. munitions and the global economy. The war could—and should—force a broader reckoning with 47 years of failed strategy and change Washington’s approach for good.

The combination of strategic 5GW and the ability of Iran to control the Strait of Hormuz has nullified both the USA’s military and financial power. This, combined with the fact that China now surpassed US economic and industrial might, and Russia now exceeds the USA’s ability to project power into Europe, means that the post-WWII era is officially over. What comes next remains to be seen, but Americans should look to post-WWII Britain to better understand what their domestic future likely holds.

And the sooner Trump, or whoever is pulling the short, fake Trump’s strings, understands that continued conflict will only make things worse, the better. The financial system already looks as if it is on the verge of breaking this fall; October could be very ugly beyond just the financial markets. Getting the oil flowing and getting gasoline and diesel prices down will at least help somewhat cushion the economic blow.

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Not NATO: Middle East Edition

Larry Johnson correctly observes that the new military alliance in the Middle East is not a US-aligned one:

The Western commentariat filed the Mecca agreement under a comfortable heading. When Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement on August 7 — an armed attack on one to be treated as an attack on all — the reflexive label was “Islamic NATO,” a Sunni bloc, three of the Muslim world’s largest militaries welded together by sectarian identity. That reading was obsolete almost before the ink dried. What is actually taking shape is not a Sunni alliance against Iran. It is the first load-bearing beam of the post-American security architecture that Russia and China have been calling for — and Tehran is about to walk through the door…

The Mecca agreement was sold to Western audiences as a Sunni bloc and dismissed as a club of American clients. It is neither. It is the first pillar of the security architecture Putin and Wang Yi named this spring after sitting with Iran’s foreign minister — a regionally led, Russia- and China-backed framework that folds Iran in as a legitimate power and pushes the United States out as the indispensable one. The Americans built their Gulf position on keeping Sunni and Shia apart and keeping the dollar in the middle. Both pillars are being pulled at once — and the structure going up in their place was drawn in Moscow and Beijing.

I was very confused when I saw the mainstream media covering the Mecca agreement as something that was good for Clown World. It seemed very obvious to me that it wasn’t an anti-Iran association, since Pakistan is one of Iran’s closest allies, but rather, a post-US security arrangement.

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The China That Can Say No

China is the first Iranian trading partner, but will not be the only one, to reject the USA’s desperate attempt to win on the economic front what it lost on both the military and the economic fronts:

Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting: Donald Trump has threatened to wage a full-fledged economic war on Iran. Many say the economic threat is aimed at making up for the failure of the war, in the military domain, that the U.S. and Israel waged against Iran. What’s your take on that?

Lin Jian: Sanctions and pressure tactics are not the solution. China calls on parties to act responsibly and stick to the political and diplomatic approach. 

Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting: Iran has endured years of sanctions imposed by the U.S. The Islamic Republic has either managed to bypass or find alternatives. And now it is said that Trump has no tangible card to enforce what he claims as “toughest sanctions.” What’s your viewpoint?

Lin Jian: China believes that military means, sanctions and pressure tactics are not the solution. On the contrary, they will only lead to escalation that serves no one’s interests. We call for efforts to solve disputes through dialogue and negotiation.

AFP: A follow-up on Iran, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged China to join Washington in putting strong economic pressure on Iran. This was in an interview yesterday. Bessent noted that China has historically imported much of its energy from the Gulf. Does the foreign ministry have a response to these comments by Bessent?

Lin Jian: I answered a similar question yesterday. Let me reiterate, China opposes illicit unilateral sanctions that lack basis in international law and UN Security Council mandate. We call on parties to act responsibly and stick to the political and diplomatic approach.

In other words, China will continue to ignore US demands and it will continue to support its ally and trading partner, Iran.

In not entirely unrelated news, I was rather impressed with the geopolitical analysis of US-China relations on the third episode of the fourth season of Lioness. I also found it amusing how assiduously the show avoided making any reference to Israel whatsoever in its discussion of intelligence operations in the United States.

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Sound and Fury Signifying Desperation

Short Fake Trump jacks up the rhetoric again:

No one has given the Islamic Republic of Iran a greater opportunity to make a Deal than me. TRAGICALLY, for them, they hâve failed to take it. Therefore, today, I am announcing the MOST CRUSHING ECONOMIC OPERATION EVER TAKEN AGAINST ANY COUNTRY! This will be Economie Warfare and Isolation on an unprecedented scale. Their navy is gone, their air force is destroyed, their military factories are now rubble, their currency is worthless, and their country is hanging by a thread. Today, I am also announcing that ANY country that allows its financial institutions, businesses, airports, or government entities to provide any type of lifeline to Iran will itself face TREMENDOUS Economie Conséquences. Oil smuggling, swap lines, cash transfers, exchange houses, ship registries, front companies — It ail needs to stop NOW. You know who you are. This will be an ECONOMIC D-DAY, and we need ail of our Allies to stand with the United States of America to isolate, and defeat, the Iran threat. These maniacs are on the ropes, and these HISTORIC MEASURES will cripple them and their ability to Project terror worldwide. IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER.

So after demonstrating the inability of the US military to the world, now he’s going to demonstrate the intrinsic weakness of the US financial system. All this accomplishes is to ensure that BRICS intensifies its process of replacing the US dollar and further weakening the economic influence of the USA.

Doubling down is not a strategy born of strength and success, but weakness and failure. This sounds like projection combined with pure desperation devoid of ideas.

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Don’t They Know They’re Losing?

Iran is engaging in some very unusual behavior for a side that we are reliably and repeatedly losing the war in the Gulf.

Iran has delivered an ULTIMATUM to the United States and states the U.S. has “3 – 4 weeks” to meet all of its demands or Iran “will severely escalate in the Strait of Hormuz” and launch its planned preemptive strike on US-Backed Gulf Infrastructure, and US / ISRAELI assets.

Iran’s demands include:

  • $300 billion in reconstruction funds
  • Full release of Iran’s frozen assets of up to $120 billion
  • Lifting of the U.S. naval blockade
  • End to the war across all fronts, including Gaza and Lebanon
  • Accepting Iran’s permanent control of the Strait of Hormuz, including up to 7% of transit fees
  • The lifting of all US sanctions on Iranian oil, petrochemical products, and gas

Of course, we’re also being told that Ukraine is winning the EU/NATO’s war against Russia despite having lost over one-third of its population, 20 percent of its territory, and living without heat or power.

I always wondered how the German people didn’t realize how badly they were losing on both the Eastern and Western Fronts. I don’t wonder about that anymore.

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No Permission, No Protection

It’s true, Israel doesn’t need the USA’s permission to fight Iran.

BREAKING: The Israeli military has directly informed CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper that Israel does not need approval or support from the US to wage war against Iran, adding “we are currently making preparations to start the war,” per Israeli Channel 13.

Israel is preparing for a unilateral strike on Iran as it concludes the US is no longer willing to finish the war on its terms.

Iran has previously threatened to strike Israel’s Haifa oil refinery and Tel Aviv directly as soon as Israel strikes Iran again, with Iran having broken the air defense layer in Jordan and other Arab countries in daily attacks over the last few weeks allowing it to strike Israel more effectively, and with Israel’s own interceptor stocks now critically low leaving it more vulnerable.

Israel is a sovereign nation. It has the right to make its own decisions. And, concomitant with that right is the right to experience the consequences of those decisions, without any subsequent assistance from the US military, regardless of how it turns out.

I don’t see the strategic wisdom in pursuing this war, but then, I’m not privy to the same quantity and quality of information that the Israeli generals possess. And the best thing that the rest of the world can do is let Iran and Israeli sort it out amongst themselves.

No one has ever brought peace to the Middle East, so there is no sense in even trying to do so.

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An Act of War

Was the USA involved in the recent Islamic invasion of two Spanish enclaves?

The US and Israel orchestrated the mass migrant crossing from Morocco into Spain’s North African enclave of Ceuta to punish Madrid for its refusal to bow to pressure on the Middle East conflicts, Iran’s embassy in Kenya has suggested. Spain has been at odds with Washington and West Jerusalem over the Gaza war and strikes on Iran.

Over the past several days, roughly 50,000 to 60,000 migrants crossed from Morocco into Ceuta by land and sea in numbers equivalent to some 70% of the enclave’s regular population. The local authorities admitted they had been “completely overwhelmed” by the sudden surge.

The crisis, the largest human traffic invasion in the EU’s history, claimed the lives of at least 86 people, a toll expected to rise further. Many of the victims drowned in the sea or were crushed in the stampede at border checkpoints. On Friday, the Iranian Embassy in Nairobi described the migrant surge as “an operation organized by Washington and Tel Aviv – coordinated with certain neighboring authorities – to destabilize Spain.”

We know Israel was involved as a sponsor. Both the Israeli Ambassador to the UN and the son of the current Prime Minister made that perfectly clear. But this is the first time that it’s been suggested that the USA was involved as well, although Trump did make some weird claims about how this sort of thing would happen in Europe if Republicans lose the mid-term elections.

I just assumed that was Trump doing his usual thing of attempting to jump to the front of every parade, but it’s possible there was more too it than that. If so, things are going to get even weirder than they already are fast.

UPDATE: And it’s more or less confirmed, given the signal that was recently sent by Congress.

House Report 119-631 accompanies the National Security, Department of State, and Related Programs Appropriations Act, 2027, which the House passed 217 to 209 on 15 July 2026.“The Committee notes that the Spanish-administered cities of Cueta and Melilla are located in Moroccan territory and remain the subject of Morocco’s longstanding claim.”

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Guns or Gas?

Larry Johnson thinks he’s figured out why the President and Pentagon called off this weekend’s expected attacks on Iran:

The New York Times published a piece by Eric Schmitt and Jonathan Swan that offers one explanation for Trump’s latest TACO. They write:

President Trump has set aside, at least for now, plans to sharply escalate the American military assault against Iran, with particular concern that intensifying the war could dangerously drain the Pentagon’s already diminished stockpile of Patriot antimissile interceptors and other air defense munitions in the Middle East.

The threat to interceptor stockpiles is one of many considerations that has made a return to major combat operations a hugely risky endeavor, administration officials say. Mr. Trump and his top aides are also uneasy about the prospect of a widening war in the Middle East, the alienation of key Gulf allies who are vulnerable to Iranian attack, a global economic crunch, and growing energy and refugee crises.

But there may be another consideration — one that does not exclude the reasons offered by the NY Times reporters — that involves the US fuel supplies. An economic brief prepared by Karl Miller investigates how the US military’s covert fuel procurement and export operations are depleting the nation’s diesel and jet fuel reserves, particularly during a period when domestic stocks are already critically low. The report details that from May to July, nearly 161 million barrels of distillate and jet fuel were exported, with the East Coast’s buffer falling to less than half its pre-pandemic norm. Much of this fuel is routed through opaque channels, such as the Rotterdam transshipment hub, where the final military or foreign allocation is not publicly reconciled, leaving the American economy exposed to shortage risks while military and foreign operations receive priority access.

A central finding is that the US government operates a parallel, largely unauditable military allocation system that siphons fuel from the civilian market. Public data merges commercial and military fuel categories, and certain military shipments are exempt from standard export reporting, making it impossible to track the true end-use of exported fuel. The report highlights that US taxpayers are subsidizing foreign military fuel needs, notably for Israel, through both direct and likely indirect channels, while the government does not disclose the full extent or funding split of these deliveries. Meanwhile, critical sectors like trucking, agriculture, and civil aviation are left with a diminished safety margin and increased disruption risk.

Miller concludes that the crisis is not due to a collapse in refinery output or a fabricated inventory, but rather a combination of structurally low inventories, high ongoing exports, and fragmented public reporting that obscures the military’s draw on national fuel supplies.

Americans are already angry about being forced to go to war again for Israel. And I suspect that even the great champions of antisemitism recognize that if they are deprived of their ability to drive as the economy gets further hammered by this insane, unnecessary, and ill-fated war, no amount of rhetoric, propaganda, and legal pressure is going to keep a lid on all that irrational, totally unprovoked hate.

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