Tag: Middle East

First Gaza, now the West Bank. Seymour Hersh reports that Israel is going to attempt to annex the West Bank before President Trump takes office in January:

Israel, fortified by bombs and funding from the Biden administration, is escalating the forced evacuation of hundreds of thousands from the north of Gaza to the south, amid fierce bombing and the deprivation of food and water for those who stay behind. This is continuing amid marches and other demonstrations sponsored by the religious right in Israel whose leadership also is calling for north Gaza to be turned over to Israeli settlers. What was a worrisome rumor in Gaza more and more seems like a reality.

Control over all of Gaza and the West Bank is the core demand of the religious right in Israel that now dominates the government. I was told this week by a well-informed Washington official that the Israeli leadership will formally annex the West Bank in the very near future—perhaps in two weeks—in the hope that the decisive step will end, once and for all, any talk of a two-state solution and will convince some in the skeptical Arab world to reconsider financing the planned reconstruction of Gaza.

It’s fascinating to see how many of the parties that have been aggressive over the last three years are getting even more aggressive as the clock runs out on Clown World. I don’t see this working out as smoothly as the Netanyahu regime might be hoping, assuming that the report is real and not just a trial balloon.

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From the Jerusalem Post:

• The attack occurred in three major waves, with the second and third waves targeting Iranian drone and missile production sites, hitting over 20 targets.
• Over 100 planes were involved in the 2000 k.m. attack, including the cutting-edge F-35, according to Walla.
• The IDF confirmed the operation was over and that all mission goals had been achieved, with all planes returning safely home.
• Iranian officials and media have been denying that Israeli airstrikes took place, saying explosions were a result of Iranian air defense; an Israeli official strenuously denied this to Ynet, saying, “This is a lie. Total failure – zero interceptions.”

No one tells the truth in wartime. But sending 100 planes more than 2,000 kilometers is an impressive technical feat, even though it tends to imply US involvement in refueling the planes; there are rumors that 10 US tanker aircraft were involved in supporting the strike.

What we can conclude from what little we have been told is that either a) Iran’s air defenses are less effective than Ukraine’s or b) Iran was not contesting the strikes. Given that there is a non-zero chance that at least one of the planes might have crashed without any enemy action at all, the fact that there were zero interceptions reported, zero planes shot down reported, and minimal casualties on both sides tends to suggest that this was more war kabuki meant to let Israel keep its word without actually escalating the situation.

For one reason or another, neither Israel nor Iran appear inclined to genuinely put the other’s genuine military capabilities to the test. It’s really remarkable that when no aircraft on either side dares show itself within 100 miles of the battlefield in Ukraine, that 100 Israeli warplanes should be able to fly 2,000 kilometers into Iranian airspace unmolested.

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Apparently Israel was genuinely observed making preparations to attack Iran on October 15th and 16th, but appears to have cancelled the attack for reasons that remain unknown, but are presumably related to the “earthquake” that was observed earlier this month.

The US has launched an investigation after highly classified intelligence reports about Israel’s preparations for possible strikes on Iran were leaked online, CNN reported on Saturday, citing three people familiar with the matter. The apparent security breach occurred amid an intense standoff between Iran and Israel – which has vowed to respond to a barrage of missiles fired by Tehran earlier this month.

On Friday, two documents were posted to the anonymous Telegram channel Middle East Spectator, which covers events in the region and is critical of Israel.

The first of the files, apparently prepared by the Pentagon’s National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, says the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) “continued key munitions preparations and covert UAV activity on October 16 almost certainly for a strike on Iran.”

The second document contains a detailed report about a “large-force employment exercise” conducted by the Israeli Air Force on October 15-16.

An unnamed US official confirmed the authenticity of the documents to CNN, describing the leak as “deeply concerning.” The official told the network that the ongoing probe is aimed at determining who had access to the top secret files that eventually made their way to social media.

The plan reportedly involved a combination of ballistic missiles and air-to-surface missiles, although considerably fewer than were involved in the Iranian attack on Israel. Which, of course, tends to raise suspicions that some of them may have been armed with nuclear warheads, and may explain why the US intelligence source decided to try to stop the attack by leaking news of it.

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Hamas has confirmed yesterday’s IDF reports of the death of its leader, Yahya Sinwar:

The Palestinian militant group Hamas has acknowledged the death of its leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza, praising him as a “holy warrior” and “fallen martyr.”

The announcement was made by a senior Hamas official, Khalil Hayya, in a televised address on Friday. Sinwar has “sacrificed his life to the cause of our liberation,” Hayya stated, describing the late leader of the group as a “steadfast, brave and intrepid” man.

So, if the “head of the snake” strategy works, the deaths of Sinwar, al-Arouri, Haniyah, and Sharif should bring a rapid end to Israel’s war against the Palestinians in Gaza. However, the dichotomy between the way the IDF and Hamas describe Sinwar’s death tends to cast doubt on the two sides being able to even share a similar perspective.

• He met his end standing brave, with his head held high, holding his firearm, firing until the last breath, until the last moment of his life.
• How Israel slaughtered the Butcher: Rookie soldiers stumbled across Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, engaged in gun battle, tracked him down as he cowered in empty building… then blasted it with a tank.

I’ve never seen the point in constantly attempting to portray the enemy as some sort of coward. A suicide bombing targeting civilians is certainly much more evil and malicious than a Medal of Honor-winning soldier heroically jumping on a grenade to save his squadmates, but is it any less courageous? I don’t think so.

A false portrayal of the enemy not only smacks of weakness, but violates Sun Tzu’s admonition to know the enemy. Which is why I think the IDF may have made another PR mistake by publicizing the video of Sinwar’s last moments. Throwing a stick at a drone might be pointless, perhaps even a bit pathetic, but it is a final act of defiance of the sort that most warriors will tend to admire. It reminds me of a poster that I wanted when I was young, which my parents wisely refused to let me buy for my bedroom.

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You’d barely know there was an invasion of Lebanon at all based on the lack of media coverage of the ground war compared to the multiple big headlines of the continuing series of air strikes everywhere from Lebanon to Yemen, complete with the name and rank of the Hezbollah commander supposedly killed in the bombing. I don’t think we can necessarily read too much into that, except for two things.

1. Where are the names and identities of all the Hezbollah commanders killed and captured on the ground?
2. It’s usually not a good sign if one has to call in the reserves in the early stages of an offensive.
3. The IDF has already committed more troops than it did in the 2006 war.

Israel has been conducting ground incursions into Lebanese territory. The Israeli military said a fourth division is now taking part in the incursion, which has expanded to the west, but operations still appear to be confined to a narrow strip along the border. The 146th Division, made up of reservists, had entered southern Lebanon, in an apparent escalation. 

The IDF committed five divisions to Gaza, where Hamas has been defeated but not pacified. The fact that it’s already committed four divisions to Lebanon, including a reserve division, in barely the first week of combat, doesn’t prove that things are not going well there, but does tend to suggest that they are not. I expect we’ll find out soon enough; if the IDF declares its limited objectives were achieved and withdraws before the end of October, that will imply that it was decisively defeated by Hezbollah.

On the other hand, if the IDF reserves rapidly proceed up to the Litani River and the missile barrages come to an end, we’ll know that it won the latest round. Everything else is just rhetoric.

UPDATE: Curiouser and curiouser. A conspiracy site was reporting that Israeli Defense Minister had been killed in the recent Iranian missile attack, along with a lot more people than Israel has admitted. I assumed it was the usual nonsense, but now I’m not so sure.

WASHINGTON, Oct 8 (Reuters) – Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has canceled a Wednesday visit to the Pentagon, the Pentagon said, as Israeli media reported Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wanted first to speak with U.S. President Joe Biden. The surprise cancellation on Tuesday comes amid soaring tensions between Israel and Iran as Israel weighs options to respond to Tehran’s missile attack last week, its second this year against Israel.

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