This is the third part of a guest post on the European migrant crisis:
In part II of this series, I considered ways the German and European authorities could attempt to handle the Migrant Crisis. However, I rather doubt that the European Governments will have the nerve to embrace such measures. They would have to cope with howls of outrage from the Left while balancing the suspicions of the Right that the measures utilized would eventually end up aimed at them. Giving the government a vast amount of power may well mean, eventually, that the government will wind up using it in a manner you dislike.
Regardless of either intentions or morality, there is a further problem. Germany, and almost every other European Governments, has been making alarming cuts in both its police and its deployable military forces. Even if the German government works up the nerve to order draconian measures, it may find itself unable to actually enforce them.
Furthermore, as morale sinks within the police forces – it is unlikely that the German police very much enjoy the idea of putting down protest marches against rapist invaders – there may be a vast exodus of trained and experienced policemen.
Therefore, it behoves us to study the three major possibilities for Germany’s future: Fascism, Balkanisation and Caliphate.
1. Fascism.
Let us assume, as I expect to happen, that Merkel’s government fails to both come to grips with the crisis and convince the vast majority of Germans that it is capable and competent. As I said in the previous article, definite proof of a government cover-up ensures that the government will not be believed by the ordinary people. As has been noted elsewhere, that which is half-seen is all the more disturbing to the imagination! The government’s failure will both encourage the rise of vigilante groups of the streets of Germany and, almost certainly, empower politicians who intend to ride the crisis into power. In times of crisis, voters tend to head to the right; a competent right-wing politician (a German version of Donald Trump) may well have a good chance of being elected into power.
He will be called a second Hitler, of course. But how badly will that hurt his chances when Germans start asking themselves what Hitler would have done, faced with a howling mob of invaders?
Assuming this individual gets elected, what then?
Such a government will have few restraints. International opinion rarely means squat to fascist dictatorships. I imagine he would start by building up the police and security forces, then rounding up vast numbers of migrants and sealing them away in detention camps. If there is nowhere else to put them, he may well open up the gas chambers and slaughter the migrants in job lots. And if the situation in Germany continues, he may well be cheered as the migrants are summarily exterminated.
He will also purge Germany of everyone he considers politically undesirable. The thought of Merkel standing trial for treason is quite a pleasing one, along with many other left-wing morons who somehow managed to climb into power. However, it probably won’t stop there. The technology available to the modern world for population control and surveillance would make the Spanish Inquisitors wet their pants. Anyone who has expressed a politically-unsound opinion on Facebook (for example) would be targeted.
Longer-term, he would need to come to terms with Germany’s demographic crisis. I would expect ‘Kinder, Küche, Kirche’ to be the order of the day for German womanhood; those babies have to be born! General freedoms would probably be strongly limited; a smart fascist wouldn’t interfere too much with personal freedoms, but political freedom would be gone, once and for all.
There are people who would probably see this as a dream come true. It isn’t. The fascists might achieve their first set of objectives, but what then? Staying in power would become a desperate imperative. Why would anyone show them mercy when they have shown none? Getting rid of a fascist government is far from easy. Removing Saddam took a full-scale invasion.
Internationally, of course, a resurgent Germany with more than a whiff of Nazism would be a nightmare reborn. And that’s about as far as I dare take this one.
2. Balkanisation
If we assume that the flow of migrants is not stopped, and the government fails to contain the situation, we may see, instead, the rise of a balkanised Germany. The original no-go zones would expand rapidly to contain the newcomers, linking up into larger and larger communities where the original law no longer runs. Without a strong police presence, real power would come to rest in the hands of radicals, men who will paint themselves as defending their communities against very real threats. (By this point, there will probably be constant low-level fighting on the streets of Germany, giving them a genuine cause.) Women will be forced under the veil; children will be taught to hate the surrounding German society.
Young German girls will be kidnapped and enslaved inside the communities. There will be no hope of saving them from a life of rape and forced childbirth.
And any previous accommodation with the natives will be blown away.
This will probably cause a mass exodus of German civilians, either to safer parts of Germany (if they exist) or somewhere beyond German borders. (The Poles might find it amusing to take German refugees, if they’re willing to behave; Putin might see advantage in doing the same.)
Or, alternatively, ‘German’ enclaves will fight to defend themselves against both the Islamic enclaves and the government (or what remains of it). German soldier and policemen will desert to join their communities, bringing weapons and training with them. Muslim soldiers within the German military will probably do the same, in the other direction. Both sides will work desperately to build up their stockpiles of weapons, as the government’s ability to do anything crumbles.
There will be a great deal of fighting before matters settle down, particularly as the various sub-states start to form successor nations.
Each enclave will need to control its own food supplies – although it might be possible to starve an immigrant enclave into submission – and other issues arising from its separation from Germany. We would be looking at scenes out of the Thirty Years War, perhaps worse. Modern society is just not organised to support a large population during a time of major disruption. I would imagine a truly fearsome death rate as society breaks down completely.
Long-term, who knows what will happen?
3. Caliphate
Tom Kratman’s Caliphate predicted a unified Islamic Empire controlling most of Europe, apart from Britain and Switzerland. As chilling as his predictions were, there were a number of issues with them. Muslims do not have one vast hive mind. Different groups of Sunni terrorists/insurgents (a category that includes both ISIS and Al Qaeda) have different ideas about how best to govern territory when they finally take it. The differences between Sunnis and Shias are far greater, with both sides determined to destroy the other. (There is something to be said for pulling out of the Middle East and letting them kill each other.) Finally, Arabs are often extremely racist towards other Muslims, which causes far more friction in the Muslim World.
A united Caliphate, therefore, is actually the least likely scenario. I would say that it is rather more likely that there is an Islamic France and an Islamic Germany that hate each other fully as much as the natives did, between 1870 and 1945. To have a united Caliphate would require a group that managed to gain control of the political levers without either fracturing or provoking resistance before it was too late. In my experience, large-scale conspiracies rarely work out in practice
Remember, neither Hitler nor Stalin had a solid plan from Day One to take total power for themselves. Instead, they were opportunists. In both cases, they were riding tigers. One slip and it would have been the end of them.
But let us imagine, for a moment, a powerful and charismatic ‘moderate’ Muslim who manages to work his way into a position of power. Perhaps he’s the leader of a ‘reasonable’ Islamic Party that claims to believe in the rights of everyone, even non-Muslims. His words are enough to soothe tensions on the streets, a process made easier by steadily replacing senior police and military officers with his own men. A handful of radicals who are too noticeable even in a tame media environment get stoned to death, just to bolster his ratings. His party even works its way into the EU and different national politics, making it clear that they’re the good guys. See? Accommodation works!
And then, one day, the coup. The remaining non-Muslims (and Muslims who won’t toe the line) in government get rounded up. Borders are closed, new security forces appear on the streets, Islamic Law is imposed, the nightmare begins….
Plausible? I hope not.
Barring a major change in mindset, the Caliphate will rapidly start to decay, whatever happens. The Middle-Eastern mentality is not suited to running a modern state. However, they will inherit control of both a reasonably-modern military force and a nuclear arsenal. Would they fire on the United States? Or Russia? Or Israel?
I don’t know how Kratman envisaged his Caliphate coming into existence, but maybe it was a little like that.
I think it’s fairly clear that none of these possibilities are very good ones. Long-term, Germany and Europe would be in deep shit. Even the ‘best’ of these outcomes, a fascist government, would be a nightmare on a hellish scale. It would probably take a joint American-Russian invasion to put a stop to the reoccurrence of a historical nightmare, but almost certainly they would be too late to stop millions upon millions of people from dying, or worse.
And considering that the Americans and Russians cannot even cooperate in the relatively smaller matters of Ukraine and Syria, how likely is it that that they will be able to act in concert regarding the fate of Germany or Europe?
But no matter what, one thing is clear: Merkel Must Go!
