Occam’s Razor suggests otherwise

Bryan Caplan asks and answers a question:

I’m a fallible human being, so when people say, “Bryan, what you fail to realize is…” I listen closely.  Precisely what do I fail to realize?  I’d really like to know.

Most of the time, though, I’m sadly disappointed.  The things I allegedly “fail to realize” tend to be smack dab in the middle of my class notes and publications.  Latest example: Many critics of my cosmopolitan and open borders stance have faulted me for “failing to realize” that normal human beings value their group identities.

The reality is that I’ve been vocally affirming the political importance of group identity for over a decade.  Check out my undergraduate and graduate course notes on voter motivation, this article, my posts on the Respect Motive, or my effusive praise for the expressive voting model.  My punchline of American partisanship, for example, is that the data shows:

1. Strong evidence for group-interested voting, with race being the main group of interest.
2. Self-interest plays a marginal role at most.

I even give my graduate Public Choice students this essay assignment:


Consider another country and/or historical era with which you are familiar. Write a case study of its politics that weighs the explanatory power of the SIVH [Self-Interested Voter Hypothesis], group-interest, and ideology.

How can I grasp the massive political effects of group identity, but remain a cosmopolitan and open borders advocate?  Simple.

I don’t buy his answer. I have a much more logical one. Bryan Caplan grasps the massive political effects of group identity, but remains a cosmopolitan and open borders advocate because he sees it as being in the interest of the group with which he identifies.


Cucks gonna cuck

Remember, these people actually think they are virtue-signaling their superior morality:

A North Carolina woman has admitted to committing sex crimes involving a 14-year-old boy who her family was in the process of adopting from the Philippines.

Christy Lynn Jaski, 43, of Wilmington, pleaded guilty Tuesday to three counts of misdemeanor sexual battery. She was sentenced to three years of probation, and as part of her punishment she must also register as a sex offender for 30 years.

Prosecutor Lance Oehrlein says Jaski kissed and groped the Filipino sometime between December 2014 and January 2015. Oehrlein says Jaski also sent messages to a friend in the Philippines admitting she had kissed the child, whom she called ‘her son.’

I suspect the aftermath of the new Churchian enthusiasm for interracial adoption is going to be cataclysmic. One of the key advantages of close family ties, both social and genetic, is that they naturally inhibit incest. You can call an alien your son, your daughter, your brother, or your sister, but that natural inhibition is simply not going to be as strong.

And yes, they’re Churchian cuckservatives: “Devout: Jaski’s husband works for a non-profit devoted to promoting Christianity on college campuses around the country”

Yes, I’m sure this is just the sort of promotion that Christianity needs. Someone needs to explain to these virtue-signaling cretins that importing foreigners to have sex with your wife is neither evangelizing nor sharing the love of Christ.

If I was a college student, the only thing Jaski’s efforts would have is to convince me to worship Loki.


The end of Jewish rule

Identity politics finally catches up to a 44-year practitioner of it.

A Somali activist has unseated one of the Minnesota Legislature’s longest-serving members in a Democratic primary.

Ilhan Omar defeated 22-term Rep. Phyllis Kahn in Tuesday’s DFL nominating contest. Omar’s victory in the heavily Democratic Minneapolis district makes it likely she’ll be the first Somali-American lawmaker in the nation after the November election.

The district spans the University of Minnesota and is home to a large population of immigrants from Somalia and other East African countries. Omar argued the district needs a fresher face that better represents the diversity and needs of the area.

Omar is a political activist and former aide to the Minneapolis City Council.

Kahn has spent 44 years in the Legislature.

This is a microcosm of what is gradually taking shape in the United States. It’s also why the Learned Elders of Wye have been actively trying to figure out where to jump ship next, as their ability to influence US politics rapidly wanes. Apparently Jewish strategists never thought through the obvious long-term consequences of their 60’s-era “diversity is good for the Jews” strategy in the United States, most likely because it was originally formulated in highly altruistic, highly homogeneous Europe, where it was an effective strategy right up until it really wasn’t.

However, now that low-altruism minorities are approaching 50 percent of the US electorate, identity politics are permanently replacing ideological politics, and a Jew like Khan is never going to be elected in any district where Somalis, or Arabs, or Indians, or Chinese are the majority. And they’re also increasingly unlikely to be elected in black-, white-, or Hispanic-dominated districts.

Further complicating matters is the fact that the rise of Donald Trump and American nationalism means the “hello, fellow white people” schtick is not to work much longer, particularly now that the inordinately Jewish “conservative media” has unmasked itself as globalist rather than pro-American, and viciously opposed to any America First nationalist ideology.

So, setting up Pedro, Peng, Pasha and Prodosh to fight Paul for the benefit of Peter has, over time, put Peter in a no-win situation. If Pedro and company win, Peter is permanently excluded from power and may even be actively persecuted by the rainbow coalition he helped build. And if a newly self-interested Paul wins, he’s no longer likely to listen to Peter or pay any attention to Peter’s interests.

This leaves Peter with three options. Try to shut down democracy, accept the gradual decline of power, wealth, and influence, or leave.

This isn’t a matter for debate, nor will crying Holocaust or engaging in philo-semitic virtue-signaling make any difference here here. It’s simple demographic math combined with an observation of historical group voting patterns. US whites are willing to vote outside their identity. US non-whites strongly prefer to do as the Jews do and vote their identity.

It’s interesting, is it not, that the vaunted Askenazi IQ advantage appears to be failing them even as the average US IQ declines significantly. It tends to strongly suggest that whatever the historical basis of Jewish success in the United States was, it was not superior average intelligence.

To return to the Minnesota district, it would be fascinating if Omar unexpectedly loses the election, as a defeat would indicate that even hard-core liberal whites are starting to prefer identity politics to ideology.

UPDATE: Further evidence that identity politics are on the rise; the Asians are beginning to flex their political muscle.

24-year-old Fue Lee, who was born in a refugee camp in Thailand and currently works in the office of Secretary of State Steve Simon. He defeated 10-term incumbent Rep. Joe Mullery, DFL-Minneapolis. Both upsets came in heavily DFL districts, which means they are virtually assured of victory in November. Their victories illustrated the ascendance of minority populations in the DFL, as new immigrants and African-Americans demand a higher profile and a seat at the table of the party they call home.

As I’ve said before, Republicans must become the White Party – or if you prefer, the American Party – if they are to survive. White Democrats and Jews are all but finished, outside of the places where they are the majority.


It’s more convincing if you don’t lie

Some of Donald Trump’s critics don’t realize that being “a man of the people” is about supporting those people’s interests, not lying about your background and pretending to have worked your way up from the bottom:

Wall Street Journal deputy editorial page editor Bret Stephens told CNNs’ Fareed Zakaria that Donald Trump’s campaign is “increasingly a vision of the privileges of a white ethnic bloc.” Stephens warned Trump has turned the Republican party into the “white party” and is doubtful the it can reclaim the principle of opportunity and the “right to rise” following a Trump loss.

“It’s basically increasingly a vision of the privileges of a white ethnic bloc who he is speaking to,” Stephens said of the Trump campaign. “If the Republican party essentially becomes the white party, it is going to be the death of it.”

Stephens fought back against the argument that anti-Trump Republicans are elitists living in a bubble.

Stephens said he wished he was born into a rich family entrenched in New York real estate and the privileges that comes along with that. Instead, he said, he “started at the bottom” and any achievements he has made were based on merit.

“This is the standard line of the Trump side of the party, that us who oppose him are just a bunch of elites who live in the Acela corridor in this bubble of unimaginable wealth,” Stephens said to his co-panelist, Trump surrogate Emily Miller. “I wish I had been born into an extremely wealthy New York real estate family and been given multimillion dollar loans to get my start in life. I started at the bottom like so many of us did and to the extent that I achieved anything I think it’s on merit.”

Stephens, however, was born in New York to a chemical company executive and attended boarding school at the Middlesex School in Massachusetts. He later attended the London School of Economics.

Stephens is not only lying about himself, he’s wrong. The only hope the Republicans have of survival is to become the white party, shut down immigration, and start deporting the post-1965 wavers. Due to the combination of demographics and white people opposed to white interests, it’s entirely possible that if Donald Trump does not win, no Republican will ever be president again.

Not all whites favor small government. But look around the world. White Americans are the only people who favor it. That means the Republican Party, with its current ideology, cannot possibly win in any polity that does not consist of predominantly white American voters. It would have to become party more akin to the British Tories or Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats, or accept permanent opposition status.

Being a good cuckservative, Stephens probably favors the latter. What could be more satisfying than the certainty of knowing you can remain perfectly principled, secure in the assurance of your noble defeat.

CORRECTION: I stand corrected. Stephens (((Erlich))) is not a cuckservative, he’s just another media Jew who is opposed to a white Republican party because a white Republican party would reliably prioritize American interests over Jewish interests. As I’ve repeatedly predicted, ideology is dead. It’s all identity politics now.

On a tangential note, we’ll know America is no longer the premier global power when the Erlich-Stephens of the world start changing their names to Wang, Li, and Zhang.


1x, 11x, 1250x

The President of the Philippines demonstrates how small-scale, but intense action can lead to significant results.

Duterte’s centerpiece anticrime drive, focused on an ambitious campaign promise to end the widespread drugs problem in six months, has left more than 400 drug suspects dead, many of them either in firefights with police or under suspect circumstances. More than 4,400 have been arrested, police said.

The unprecedented killings have scared more than half a million drug users and dealers who gave themselves up to police, officials said. An overwhelmed Duterte has said he was considering to set aside some areas in military camps nationwide to build rehabilitation centers for those who surrender.

We’ve already seen significant self-deportations take place in the USA response to fairly modest crackdowns on illegal employment. While people have questioned how 60 million immigrants could ever be deported, it should be obvious that tens of millions would self-deport with alacrity were the federal government to announce it was targeting them for arrest and would no longer respect their human rights.

If we assume that arrests are equivalent to deportations, that means 500,000 deportations would probably suffice, although it is unclear if the deportations alone would provide the sufficient motivation. One tends to suspect the drug users and dealers were more impressed by the anti-drug death squads.

Don’t forget, this math works two ways. I tend to suspect that the anti-gun forces in the USA are counting on a similar equation.


“The gravest risk since communism”

The Economist sees nationalism as a great evil that is to be defeated rather than the only way to save Western Civilization:

AS POLITICAL theatre, America’s party conventions have no parallel. Activists from right and left converge to choose their nominees and celebrate conservatism (Republicans) and progressivism (Democrats). But this year was different, and not just because Hillary Clinton became the first woman to be nominated for president by a major party. The conventions highlighted a new political faultline: not between left and right, but between open and closed (see article). Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, summed up one side of this divide with his usual pithiness. “Americanism, not globalism, will be our credo,” he declared. His anti-trade tirades were echoed by the Bernie Sanders wing of the Democratic Party.

America is not alone. Across Europe, the politicians with momentum are those who argue that the world is a nasty, threatening place, and that wise nations should build walls to keep it out. Such arguments have helped elect an ultranationalist government in Hungary and a Polish one that offers a Trumpian mix of xenophobia and disregard for constitutional norms. Populist, authoritarian European parties of the right or left now enjoy nearly twice as much support as they did in 2000, and are in government or in a ruling coalition in nine countries. So far, Britain’s decision to leave the European Union has been the anti-globalists’ biggest prize: the vote in June to abandon the world’s most successful free-trade club was won by cynically pandering to voters’ insular instincts, splitting mainstream parties down the middle.

News that strengthens the anti-globalisers’ appeal comes almost daily. On July 26th two men claiming allegiance to Islamic State slit the throat of an 85-year-old Catholic priest in a church near Rouen. It was the latest in a string of terrorist atrocities in France and Germany. The danger is that a rising sense of insecurity will lead to more electoral victories for closed-world types. This is the gravest risk to the free world since communism. Nothing matters more than countering it.

Considering that their counter will consist of “stronger rhetoric, bolder policies and smarter tactics”, they’re not off to a good start. They are at a disadvantage, of course, because the most effective rhetoric is utilized in the service of the truth, and they are attempting to sell blatant and obvious lies.

But if “nothing matters more than countering” nationalism, that means that nationalism is the only political objective that matters for the opponents of globalism. We need to continue to expose their lies about NATO benefitting America, about the EU benefitting Europe, about free trade and immigration enriching societies, and how cooperation is necessary for fighting terrorism.

If you’re still foolish enough to swallow the false assertion that free trade is beneficial to America, perhaps you should consider if you believe any of the other lies you are being told by the same people.


The prophecy of HP Lovecraft

The Chateau offers up an insightful and prophetic essay by HP Lovecraft on “Americanism” and how it would be used to justify the immigration that has destroyed the American nation:

It is easy to sentimentalise on the subject of “the American spirit”—what it is, may be, or should be. Exponents of various novel political and social theories are particularly given to this practice, nearly always concluding that “true Americanism” is nothing more or less than a national application of their respective individual doctrines.

Slightly less superficial observers hit upon the abstract principle of “Liberty” as the keynote of Americanism, interpreting this justly esteemed principle as anything from Bolshevism to the right to drink 2.75 per cent. beer. “Opportunity” is another favourite byword, and one which is certainly not without real significance. The synonymousness of “America” and “opportunity” has been inculcated into many a young head of the present generation by Emerson via Montgomery’s “Leading Facts of American History.” But it is worthy of note that nearly all would-be definers of “Americanism” fail through their prejudiced unwillingness to trace the quality to its European source. They cannot bring themselves to see that abiogenesis is as rare in the realm of ideas as it is in the kingdom of organic life; and consequently waste their efforts in trying to treat America as if it were an isolated phenomenon without ancestry.

“Americanism” is expanded Anglo-Saxonism. It is the spirit of England, transplanted to a soil of vast extent and diversity, and nourished for a time under pioneer conditions calculated to increase its democratic aspects without impairing its fundamental virtues. It is the spirit of truth, honour, justice, morality, moderation, individualism, conservative liberty, magnanimity, toleration, enterprise, industriousness, and progress—which is England—plus the element of equality and opportunity caused by pioneer settlement. It is the expression of the world’s highest race under the most favourable social, political, and geographical conditions. Those who endeavour to belittle the importance of our British ancestry, are invited to consider the other nations of this continent. All these are equally “American” in every particular, differing only in race-stock and heritage; yet of them all, none save British Canada will even bear comparison with us. We are great because we are a part of the great Anglo-Saxon cultural sphere; a section detached only after a century and a half of heavy colonisation and English rule, which gave to our land the ineradicable stamp of British civilisation.

Most dangerous and fallacious of the several misconceptions of Americanism is that of the so-called “melting-pot” of races and traditions. It is true that this country has received a vast influx of non-English immigrants who come hither to enjoy without hardship the liberties which our British ancestors carved out in toil and bloodshed. It is also true that such of them as belong to the Teutonic and Celtic races are capable of assimilation to our English type and of becoming valuable acquisitions to the population. But, from this it does not follow that a mixture of really alien blood or ideas has accomplished or can accomplish anything but harm….

The main struggle which awaits Americanism is not with reaction, but with radicalism. Our age is one of restless and unintelligent iconoclasm, and abounds with shrewd sophists who use the name “Americanism” to cover attacks on that institution itself. Such familiar terms and phrases as “democracy,” “liberty,” or “freedom of speech” are being distorted to cover the wildest forms of anarchy, whilst our old representative institutions are being attacked as “un-American” by foreign immigrants who are incapable both of understanding them or of devising anything better.

One of the ways we can be certain that our perspective is not only historically sound, but more reflective of reality and predictive of the future is to read the voices of the past whose outlook has subsequently proved correct. HP Lovecraft was absolutely right, the foreign immigrants who came to the United States after 1919 were incapable of understanding the Rights of Englishmen and have proven utterly incapable of devising anything better.

Indeed, through their ahistorical inventions of “the melting pot” and “the proposition nation” and “equality” and “diversity is our strength”, they have completely and utterly destroyed that expanded Anglo-Saxonism that briefly made America the greatest, most powerful, and wealthiest nation on Earth.

“America” is not only white, it is, as Lovecraft said, an “expanded Anglo-Saxonism”. While other peoples may respect it, admire it, envy it, and seek to emulate it, they have observably been collectively incapable of understanding, adopting, or even preserving it. Through their various redefinitions of “Americanism”, America was destroyed.

The United States today is entirely post-American, in much the same way that Europe is post-Christian. The forms remain, but the substance is no longer there. America’s hallowed terms and phrases are even emptier than Europe’s abandoned churches.



Bloodshed in London

Lone wolf or garden-variety psycho, it’s still someone who shouldn’t have been there in the first place:

A woman in her 60s was knifed to death and five others injured during a bloodbath attack in central London that police believe may be terror-related.

Witnesses described victims “screaming and covered in blood” following the rampage in which the woman – believed to be a Spanish speaker enjoying a hen do – was brutally knifed around 10.30pm last night.

Other terrified onlookers described the crazed knifeman chasing pedestrians and “lunging for anyone he could see” as police confirmed mental health was a likely factor.

A 19-year-old man – described as being dark-skinned and of likely African descent – was arrested at the scene after being tasered by police in Russell Square – just yards from where one of the 7/7 terror attack bombs detonated in 2005.

Police confirmed terrorism was “one line of inquiry that we should explore”.

Three men and two woman were also injured – two of whom remain in hospital following the horrific mass stabbing near the capital’s Imperial Hotel.

Fortunately, the dead woman’s family will be consoled by knowing that this diversity has made Europe stronger.

UPDATE: Despite the fact that the killer is in custody, there are contradictory descriptions in the media: “A 19-year-old man has been arrested on suspicion of murder after he stabbed six people in Russell Square at around 10.30pm last night. One witness called him ‘dark-skinned’ or African, another white and ‘chubby'”


UPDATE: The killer is confirmed: “a 19-year old Norwegian citizen, of Somali descent”.


It’s really terrible how awful and murderous those Norwegians are! They must be really bad people. Not nice at all!


Democracy is incompatible with immigration

The Netherlands is rapidly learning why:

Europe has more than its share of angry anti-immigrant political parties these days. But one party has turned the politics of immigration on its head, positioning itself as perhaps the first in Europe with a pro-immigrant stance, run by people from immigrant backgrounds.

That party, called Denk, or Think, is led by a multicultural group of candidates seeking to combat xenophobia and racism in the Netherlands.

Denk has promoted itself as a kind of answer to the nativist and isolationist positions of the flamboyant far-right populist candidate Geert Wilders and his Freedom Party, which has been surging in the polls.

“What is unique about Denk is that it’s a party of people with a migration background who completely control the party,” said Cas Mudde, a specialist in European political and radical parties who was born in the Netherlands.

“Nonwhites have been in Parliament for a long time, but all the parties are still dominated by white Dutch people,” added Mr. Mudde, who is an associate professor at the School for Public and International Affairs at the University of Georgia. “We haven’t had a party dominated by nonwhite Dutch that has a potential chance of getting elected into Parliament.”

The Denk party has proved contentious. It has been greeted with skepticism by its political opponents and criticism in the Dutch media.

Denk was accused in the local Amsterdam centrist newspaper, Het Parool, of “fanning flames of immigrant discontent.” On social media, the party has been called “Netherlands haters.”

Among the Denk party’s stated policy goals are banning from legislative forums a pejorative term often used for Dutch nonwhites, “allochtoon,” and to replace the term “integration” with “acceptance.”

It wants to establish a “racism register” to track the use of hate speech by elected officials and to bar those who promote racism from holding public office.

Most Americans don’t understand that the same process now at work in the Netherlands has ALREADY significantly altered US law and American society. The only difference is that the various distinctions between “nonwhite Dutch” and the native Dutch are more glaringly apparent than the superficial differences between Americans and “Irish-Americans” or “German-Americans” or “Jewish-Americans”. That is how the US immigrants managed to so successfully transform American society and eliminate so many American traditions without meeting much resistance.

It’s a little ironic that so many Americans are prone to proclaim “the end of Europe” on the basis of an non-European immigrant population below 10 percent when they don’t understand that they have already lost their own nation to immigrants who not only outnumber them, but now rule over them as well.

The top priority of immigrants has always been more immigrants. Because most post-18th-century immigrants are economic migrants who fully intend to reshape the land they have invaded to be more to their liking. See: Californication.

The only solution is to not permit immigrants to vote for at least three generations, until they are at least potentially assimilated. The same policy should have been adopted by the U.S. States in the 1950s.