Tag: EU

A lost faith

Even some of the EU’s most instinctive supporters are turning from it in disgust:

 I actually used to be a big proponent of the EU. I was aware of the obvious problems, but I thought the achievements (long-term peace in Europe, war between Germany and France having become unthinkable, EU aid helping make the likes of Spain and Ireland more prosperous, and EU-required reforms making Eastern European countries modernize) more than made up for the organization itself being notoriously undemocratic. Europe was for a long time peaceful and prosperous, and the EU seemed to be a contributing factor to that.

However, during the last 10 years it has become very clear that the EU is simply not working. Take the Euro for example. While it’s very convenient to able to use the same type of money in many different EU countries, forcing vastly different countries (ranging from Cyprus and Ireland to Slovakia and Germany) to share the same currency basically imposed a rigid one-size-fits-all model on economies that had very little in common. As a result of losing monetary sovereignty, Eurozone countries could (and did) struggle mightily economically while lacking many of the monetary options for stimulating their economies that countries with their own currencies have at their disposal – like cutting interest rates. Member states are instead at the mercy of the European Central Bank, and good luck exerting influence over that behemoth if you’re a small country!

But losing monetary sovereignty is peanuts compared to what has happened to EU member Greece – a country in crippling debt and with a broken economy that instead of getting vital debt relief, or being allowed to go bankrupt in a controlled fashion, has been forced through a torturous journey of repeatedly cutting spending and raising taxes in return for short-term loans that hardly even benefit the Greek people. Forget about the fact that Greece is NEVER going to be able to repay its debt, and that forcing it to continue to try doing so only prevents the Greek economy from growing and adds to economic uncertainty in the EU as a whole. Germany, under the leadership of Angela Merkel (who is also the de facto leader of the EU), demands that Greece keep destroying its economy and society, while impoverishing its people, in order to set a good example to the rest of Europe/be made an example out of. It’s a Sisyphean task if I ever saw one.

Germany’s dominance over the EU under Merkel has generally been a complete disaster – whether it comes to her insistence of perpetually prolonging the Greek Crisis, imposing excessive Austerity across the EU in the name of reigning in budget deficits, stifling job growth and economic growth in the process (never mind that Germany itself ran significant budget deficits to boost employment and get its economy growing again little more than a decade ago) or her borderline treasonous refugee policy, Merkel’s stubbornness and stupidity has done incalculable damage to Europe as a whole. And the EU has only served to enable and amplify her madness.

For example, instead of trying to prevent Merkel from flooding Europe with Muslim migrants, the EU is looking for ways to fine and otherwise punish poor Eastern European countries (the kind of member states the EU of old would be trying to support and develop) for not letting themselves be “culturally enriched” by 3rd world Muslims. Instead of letting the people have their say about how the Establishment’s policies are hurting all of Europe, the EU is leading the charge to Censor the internet, one of the last remaining bastions of free speech. And instead of trying gradually fix their multicultural mistakes, the EU Elites are pledging to prevent the “far right” (the only force in Europe actually willing to prevent Suicide by Muslim Immigration) from ever taking power.

As socionomics would have it, the EU is an artifact of the psychological mood that accompanies economic good times, the result of collective intoxication on the heady stimulant of a massive credit bubble. It should come as no surprise to anyone who is socionomically aware that the financial crisis of 2008 has, after eight years of increasing turmoil, led to the political crisis of 2016.

Since these events tend to follow a certain pattern, and they tend to pick up speed rather than slow down, we can reasonably anticipate that the political crisis of 2016 will lead to the political collapse of 2020, followed by the first war to take place in formerly EU territory in 2022.

So, I don’t think “reform” is an option for the EU anymore. It can be dismantled in an orderly fashion or in a violent and disorderly one, and considering the haughty, delusional self-importance of its unelected leaders, I anticipate their desperate attempts to hang onto power will bring about the latter.

After all, you can take the East German girl out of East Germany, but you can’t take the DDR out of her.

Angela Merkel says EU must act to stop countries “fleeing” EU.”

Perhaps she could build… a wall? (raises pinky to corner of mouth)

Just wait, Germany

I don’t think the German leadership has yet understood the lesson of #Brexit:

German Leadership Aghast at a Brexit It Helped Cause

Germans – especially German politicians – are waking up this morning to the Brexit reality, and their initial reactions are predictable.  Shock appears to be the overwhelming emotion, followed closely by sadness, anger, and then subdued panic.

The Social Democratic Party, a partner in the governing black-red coalition, has called for an emergency session of the Bundestag today.  (One wonders what this would accomplish except perhaps to issue a statement aimed at shoring up EU solidarity in other wavering member states, or maybe just express petulance.)  Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier spoke of a “sad day for Europe and Great Britain,” while the leader of the Left faction, Sahra Wagenknecht, used the occasion to lambaste the influence of corporations and lobbyists in Brussels (a non-factor in the British vote, as far as I know).

One of the more thoughtful commentaries today is from Torsten Krauel in the right-of-center Die Welt.  Krauel asks whether German Chancellor Merkel is partially to blame for the Brexit and concludes her asylum policy almost certainly played a major role.  And indeed, the spectacle of Germany unilaterally deciding to change the face and future of the European Union by announcing Berlin had opened the doors to all comers – regardless of the wishes of or the impact this would have on other EU states – has been a powerful symbol of elite disconnect with the concerns of average Europeans and an uncomfortable reminder that Germany has come to dominate the union.  Krauel also points out Dover, the British end of the Channel Tunnel to the continent, voted 60 percent to leave.  Maybe this has something to do with the thousands of North African migrants seeking to storm the tunnel and cross to England?

While loathe to admit it, Germans at some level suspect their country’s role in the discontent in Britain.  Speaking to German friends over the past several years, it’s been difficult not to come away with the sense many view the EU as an extension of Germany policy and as a respectable outlet for German nationalism that has been suppressed since the end of World War II.  A new path to German greatness, if you will, camouflaged by warm and fuzzy words about “Europeaness” and immune to complaints of skeptics, all of whom immediately are labeled as right-wing extremists – the kiss of death in German politics.

For me, one of the takeaways from the referendum is the reminder that people care deeply about things other than pure economic interest.

Imagine how surprised the German elites will be when their own nationalists throw them out of power, and if justice is served, put them on trial for their crimes against the nation.

Article 50

A number of people have been asking what comes next. Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty is the guide.

Article 50

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it. 

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

The EU has no legal mechanism for deny withdrawal to any Member State. This does not mean they won’t try to do so, but it does mean they cannot do so in a legal manner. I expect they’ll simply try to draw it out, as the EU President has already suggested.

England and Wales choose freedom

The Fourth Reich is rejected by a narrow margin, 52 percent to 48 percent, thanks to the actual British people, who outvoted the invaders, the traitors, the sell-outs, and the Scots:

The English shires and Labour’s northern heartlands led Britain out of the European Union in a victory for middle England.

Despite Britain’s biggest cities backing a Remain vote at yesterday’s historic referendum, the country overall headed for the Brexit door.

The results caused immediate turmoil in the markets as the pound collapsed by more than 10 per cent in the hours after the polls closed and the FTSE-100 braced for heavy losses.

Nigel Farage – who earlier appeared to concede defeat – made a jubilant victory speech at around 4am declaring it was a ‘victory for ordinary people’.

Tory constituencies across the south and midlands voted for Brexit in huge numbers.

Places such as Wellingborough, West Somerset and Chesterfield all voted for leave by more 60 per cent.

The referendum map was painted blue for Out across vast swathes of England – despite London and Scotland being bright yellow.

Mr Farage told a jubilant Leave.EU rally in central London: ‘Dare to dream that the dawn is breaking on an independent United Kingdom.

‘This, if the predictions now are right, this will be a victory for real people, a victory for ordinary people, a victory for decent people.

‘We have fought against the multinationals, we have fought against the big merchant banks, we have fought against big politics, we have fought against lies, corruption and deceit.

‘And today honesty, decency and belief in nation, I think now is going to win.

‘And we will have done it without having to fight, without a single bullet being fired, we’d have done it by damned hard work on the ground.’

Some thoughts on the successful #Brexit referendum.

  1. Nothing in his political career has become David Cameron like the manner of his leaving the Prime Ministership. He was dignified and graceful in defeat. I was genuinely surprised that he not only did the right thing, but did it very well. Even though he chose the wrong side and led the enemy charge, it must not be forgotten that he gave the British people their chance.
  2. The referendum was an exercise in the failure of Magic Dirt and why immigrants should never be granted the right to vote. Nor should their children or grandchildren. Few of them give a damn about Britain and it showed in their vote.
  3. Let Scotland hold their second referendum and then let them go. They are a huge political anchor that threatens England’s very survival.
  4. The war isn’t over. #Brexit is a victory, and an important one, but it was just a battle. The war goes on.
  5. “Remember Jo Cox” should be the response to anyone who calls for Parliament to ignore the clearly expressed will of the British people. If Parliament refuses to respect the referendum, violence will almost surely be among the various consequences.
  6. Bring on Fixit, Ixit, and Grexit! Nationalism has only begun to rise in Europe.

UK independence results

This is an open thread to discuss the UK referendum on the European Union. The general tone of the media is that it is going to be a close 52-48 vote for Remain. If so, the failure of Scotland to secede from the Kingdom will prove very costly for England.

The best place to track results is at the Guardian.

UPDATE: So far, REMAIN vote in Scottish and N Ireland strongholds is weaker than expected. It’s looking good for LEAVE barring big Remain overperformance in London.

UPDATE 2: Scotland has smaller margins with smaller turnouts than predicted. If there are 2-3 more big Leave overperformances, we can safely conclude Leave will win.

UPDATE 3: Turnout in LEAVE areas is 10 percent higher than reported. Basildon votes 2:1 for leave. That’s the first overperformance. At this point, we can begin to conclude Leave will win.

UPDATE 4: Second biggest city in Wales, Swansea, narrowly votes Leave. It’s a strong Labour city, and indicates Wales is overall going to vote Leave. That’s the second overperformance for Leave. I now conclude the result will be 55 Leave 45 Remain.

UPDATE 5: Prof. Thrasher forecasts 56 Leave 44 Remain result on Sky News on the basis of current returns vs pre-vote estimates. However, first Remain outperformance appears in Oxford.

UPDATE 6: First bad sign for Leave. First two London authorities are at 69 percent turnout, 76 percent Remain. However, Glasgow turnout was only 56 percent.

Very amusing to see how the talking heads on TV simply don’t understand the significance of turnout. And with that, I’ll turn it over to you all to track how it goes. I’m optimistic, but I’m not certain. I would have felt much more confident about Leave winning if the first London turnout had been under 65 percent.

Vote LEAVE today

To my British readers,

For centuries, your nations have been at the forefront of Western civilization, which may have reached its peak under the Empire on which the sun never set. Now your empire is gone, your confidence is shaken, your faith is exhausted, your pews are empty, your cities are invaded, and you are ruled over by a hostile Continental power.

The current situation is what those great British leaders of the past, who from Napoleon to Hitler fought to prevent the domination of Europe by a single power, were desperate to prevent. Your nations were finally brought to heel through deceit rather than force, through persistent lies and propaganda rather than military might.

But today, you have been presented with an opportunity that is all too rare. You have been given the opportunity to reclaim your heritage, reclaime your birthright, reclaim your independence, reclaim your sovereignty, reclaim your freedom, and reclaim your nation. And you have been given the chance to do this peacefully!

Do not listen to those who have relentlessly lied to you for the last 65 years. Do not listen to the very voices that brought about your surrender and submission. They do not have your interests at heart, they simply want you to obediently accept your fall from a Great Power to a minor administrative region in their empire. Do not give into fear and despair and fatalism. As for my English readers, do not allow yourselves be the last English generation to be governed by the Magna Carta, Parliament, the Common Law, and the Rights of Englishmen!

Don’t be afraid of your freedom. Don’t be afraid to vote LEAVE today. And if you’re even modestly inclined to help your nation escape the chains of the European Union, stop reading this, drop everything, and go out and vote yourself free.

#Brexit

Euro 2016 Brits attacked in Calais

In the lead-up to the #Brexit vote, the BBC is caught suppressing news of attacks on British motorists by migrants in Calais:

Social media reports suggest that there is serious violence going on in Calais with the BBC suppressing the news to help Remain as it struggles in the polls before the Brexit vote:

David Vance ‏@DVATW
Sources tell me serious disorder in Calais right now . Being reported by BBC as “power cut “. Violence against uk motorists and police


 upNORTHandGRIM @UpNorthandGRIM
They’ve been attacking UK registered cars. British cars being attacked in #Calais is of no interest to @SkyNews @BBCNews #Brexit

CALAIS AT WAR: Port road SHUT as migrants chanting ‘f*** the UK’ hurl rocks at Brit cars

French police battled around 300 migrants in the lawless port town this afternoon after huge mobs targeted England and Wales fans returning across the Channel after cheering on their teams at Euro 2016 and motoring enthusiasts driving back from the Le Mans rally event.

Gangs of migrants ran out onto the motorway and brought traffic to a standstill outside the port, so that they could break into lorries and stow away in an attempt to sneak across the Channel.

A British football fan caught up in the chaos reported that gangs of migrants were shouting “f*** the UK” as they hurled rocks at his car, posting photos on social media of clouds of tear gas fired by embattled police.

I suppose it is good news the Remain-supporting elite is reduced to such desperate tactics. It certainly doesn’t smack of confidence on their part.

The counterintuitive

The pro-EU people trying to use the Labour MP’s murder to push Remain are finding out that their strategy is backfiring:

British support for remaining in the European Union has weakened in the wake of the murder of the pro-EU politician Jo Cox, according to an online research company Friday.

Qriously, a London-based technology start-up that gathers data and intelligence about consumers through mobile phone apps, found that backing among likely voters for Britain’s EU membership has dropped to 32% from 40% before her death.

The poll was based on 1,992 British adults surveyed on June 13-16, and then 1,002 on June 17 — the day after Cox was shot and killed in northern England. The start-up claims to have held the first such survey on the topic since the lawmaker’s slaying.

In fact, the rational position is to vote Leave in light of Jo Cox’s murder, as it is obvious that if England votes Remain, its society will continue to become a more violent, more murderous one where politics is pursued by other means.

The same thing happened in Norway, where the popularity of the anti-immigration parties was strengthened, not weakened, after Anders Breivik’s attacks on the junior members of the pro-immigration party.

Convinced by unreality

Megan McArdle visits Britain and learns that there is more to a nation than its economy:

Somehow, over the last half-century, Western elites managed to convince themselves that nationalism was not real. Perhaps it had been real in the past, like cholera and telegraph machines, but now that we were smarter and more modern, it would be forgotten in the due course of time as better ideas supplanted it.

That now seems hopelessly naive. People do care more about people who are like them — who speak their language, eat their food, share their customs and values. And when elites try to ignore those sentiments — or banish them by declaring that they are simply racist — this doesn’t make the sentiments go away. It makes the non-elites suspect the elites of disloyalty. For though elites may find something vaguely horrifying about saying that you care more about people who are like you than you do about people who are culturally or geographically further away, the rest of the population is outraged by the never-stated corollary: that the elites running things feel no greater moral obligation to their fellow countrymen than they do to some random stranger in another country. And perhaps we can argue that this is the morally correct way to feel — but if it is truly the case, you can see why ordinary folks would be suspicious about allowing the elites to continue to exercise great power over their lives.

It’s therefore not entirely surprising that people are reacting strongly against the EU, the epitome of an elite institution: a technocratic bureaucracy designed to remove many questions from the democratic control of voters in the constituent countries. Elites can earnestly explain that a British exit will be very costly to Britain (true), that many of the promises made on Brexit’s behalf are patently ridiculous (also true), that leaving will create all sorts of security problems and also cost the masses many things they like, such as breezing through passport control en route to their cheap continental holidays. Elites can even be right about all of those things. They still shouldn’t be too shocked when ordinary people respond just as Republican primary voters did to their own establishment last spring: “But you see, I don’t trust you anymore.”

First of all, they’re not right. Second, they are evil, self-serving people who shouldn’t be trusted about anything. Third, if they’re for it, the wise thing to do is oppose it at all costs even if you don’t have a clue about it.

Politics by other means

It’s not at all surprising that European politicians have been attacked in more than one country. I’m only surprised that more of them haven’t been targeted, considering what they have done to their nations.

Labour MP Jo Cox was shot and injured in an attack in her constituency near Leeds today. The 41-year-old mother of two was left lying bleeding on the pavement after the incident in Birstall, West Yorkshire, an eyewitness said. She is in a critical condition in hospital.

Cox isn’t the first pro-immigration politician to be attacked in Europe. It would be astonishing if she was the last.

That being said, we’ll have to wait and see if the attacker is a genuine pro-British activist, if this is just another antifa false flag, or if it something else entirely.