UK independence results

This is an open thread to discuss the UK referendum on the European Union. The general tone of the media is that it is going to be a close 52-48 vote for Remain. If so, the failure of Scotland to secede from the Kingdom will prove very costly for England.

The best place to track results is at the Guardian.

UPDATE: So far, REMAIN vote in Scottish and N Ireland strongholds is weaker than expected. It’s looking good for LEAVE barring big Remain overperformance in London.

UPDATE 2: Scotland has smaller margins with smaller turnouts than predicted. If there are 2-3 more big Leave overperformances, we can safely conclude Leave will win.

UPDATE 3: Turnout in LEAVE areas is 10 percent higher than reported. Basildon votes 2:1 for leave. That’s the first overperformance. At this point, we can begin to conclude Leave will win.

UPDATE 4: Second biggest city in Wales, Swansea, narrowly votes Leave. It’s a strong Labour city, and indicates Wales is overall going to vote Leave. That’s the second overperformance for Leave. I now conclude the result will be 55 Leave 45 Remain.

UPDATE 5: Prof. Thrasher forecasts 56 Leave 44 Remain result on Sky News on the basis of current returns vs pre-vote estimates. However, first Remain outperformance appears in Oxford.

UPDATE 6: First bad sign for Leave. First two London authorities are at 69 percent turnout, 76 percent Remain. However, Glasgow turnout was only 56 percent.

Very amusing to see how the talking heads on TV simply don’t understand the significance of turnout. And with that, I’ll turn it over to you all to track how it goes. I’m optimistic, but I’m not certain. I would have felt much more confident about Leave winning if the first London turnout had been under 65 percent.