Notes on the free trade debate

First, Dr. Miller has graciously provided the audio of our debate at Future Strategist, which, among other things, once more demonstrates the astuteness of my decision to avoid pursuing a career in radio or anything that involves speaking in public. It’s as if the more clearly I am able to think through these complicated issues, the harder I find verbally articulating the path through them. At this point, I have to expect that if I ever come to correctly grok the fullness of all the myriad pros and cons of free trade, my verbal explanations will be reduced to seemingly nonsensical word bursts.

move… you know… war… people… um, mask of credit!

Second, since I didn’t have any reason to fully cite a few of the more interesting quotes I’d found, (for, as Spacebunny observes, a very particular definition of interesting) I thought some of you might find reading them to be illuminating. Since Dr. Miller didn’t put much effort into distinguishing between free trade in goods and free trade in labor, there wasn’t any point in doing more than mentioning these statements in passing. But many free traders do attempt to make the distinction, which is why I believe they are worth noting.


Milton Friedman, “What is America” lecture at Stanford:

There is no doubt that free and open immigration is the right policy in a libertarian state, but in a welfare state it is a different story: the supply of immigrants will become infinite. Your proposal that someone only be able to come for employment is a good one but it would not solve the problem completely. The real hitch is in denying social benefits to the immigrants who are here. Look, for example, at the obvious, immediate, practical example of illegal Mexican immigration. Now, that Mexican immigration, over the border, is a good thing. It’s a good thing for the illegal immigrants. It’s a good thing for the United States. It’s a good thing for the citizens of the country. But, it’s only good so long as it’s illegal.

Ludwig von Mises, Liberalism, Chapter 8. Freedom of Movement

The natural conditions of production and, concomitantly, the productivity of labor are more favorable, and, as a consequence, wage rates are higher, in the United States than in vast areas of Europe. In the absence of immigration barriers, European workers would emigrate to the United States in great numbers to look for jobs. The American immigration laws make this exceptionally difficult. Thus, the wages of labor in the United States are kept above the height that they would reach if there were full freedom of migration, whereas in Europe they are depressed below this height. On the one hand, the American worker gains; on the other hand, the European worker loses.

However, it would be a mistake to consider the consequences of immigration barriers exclusively from the point of view of their immediate effect on wages. They go further. As a result of the relative oversupply of labor in areas with comparatively unfavorable conditions of production, and the relative shortage of labor in areas in which the conditions of production are comparatively favorable, production is further expanded in the former and more restricted in the latter than would be the case if there were full freedom of migration. Thus, the effects of restricting this freedom are just the same as those of a protective tariff. In one part of the world comparatively favorable opportunities for production are not utilized, while in another part of the world less favorable opportunities for production are being exploited. Looked at from the standpoint of humanity, the result is a lowering of the productivity of human labor, a reduction in the supply of goods at the disposal of mankind. Attempts to justify on economic grounds the policy of restricting immigration are therefore doomed from the outset. There cannot be the slightest doubt that migration barriers diminish the productivity of human labor. 

Gary North, “Tariffs as Welfare-State Economics”, Mises Institute

The ethics and economics of restricted trade surely apply to the person who wants to trade on the other side of the invisible line known as a national border. If the arguments for restricted trade apply to the American economy, then surely they apply to the other nation’s economy. Logic and ethics do not change just because we cross an invisible judicial line.Any time a government sends out a man with a badge and a gun to restrict trade, this is an act of war. Nobody should favor a restriction on other people’s trade unless the results of that trade are comparable to the results of trade during wartime.

What I find interesting about these defenders of the free movement of people, or if you prefer, free trade in labor and services, is that although the greatest among them, Ludwig von Mises, clearly recognized the potential flaw in his pro-free trade position, he not only uncharacteristically chose to wave it away, but to the extent he considered it at all, he reached what is now obviously a completely wrong conclusion.

This issue is of the most momentous significance for the future of the world. Indeed, the fate of civilization depends on its satisfactory resolution. It is clear that no solution of the problem of immigration is possible if one adheres to the ideal of the interventionist state, which meddles in every field of human activity, or to that of the socialist state. Only the adoption of the liberal program could make the problem of immigration, which today seems insoluble, completely disappear. In an Australia governed according to liberal principles, what difficulties could arise from the fact that in some parts of the continent Japanese and in other parts Englishmen were in the majority?

To continue from my observation in last night’s debate, this is a 20th century defense of an 18th century argument that sounds utterly insane in the face of 21st century realities. Consider the application of this argument to current events:

In a Sweden governed according to liberal principles, what difficulties could arise from the fact that in some parts of the country Syrians and in other parts Swedes were in the majority?

What difficulties indeed?  Anyhow, it has become increasingly apparent to me that the lack of concern about national sovereignty shown by free traders is akin to that demonstrated by libertarians, and reflects a fundamental conflation of the concept of “the nation” with the concept of “the state”. They simply don’t understand that their positions are logically self-refuting in addition to being empirically false.

UPDATE: The paper I mentioned, Trade Wars, Trade Negotiations and Applied Game Theory, by Glenn W. Harrison and E. E. Rutström, can be found here


The Free Trade debate

At 7 PM Eastern, the free trade debate between Dr. James
Miller, PhD, JD, and Associate Professor of Economics at Smith College, and Vox Day, Supreme Dark Lord of the Evil Legion of Evil, will begin.

There are 250 seats left, and you can register for the free event here

This is an open thread for those watching the debate to discuss it as it is happening. Please be polite to Dr. Miller regardless of whether you agree with him or think well of his arguments or not. As for me, well, feel free to identify any holes in the arguments I present… if you can.

UPDATE: Great turnout for such an esoteric matter. 278 people showed up over the course of the event. We held a show of hands before and after the debate. The numbers aren’t even because there were 170 people at the beginning and 215 at the end.

FREE TRADE PRO: 35 to 24
FREE TRADE ANTI: 80 to 110
NEUTRAL: 55 to 50

While Dr. Miller graciously conceded the actual debate, I think he nevertheless won the evening with his AI bombshell. It was spectacular.


Brainstorm debate: Free Trade

As I mentioned, tonight at 7 PM Eastern I’ll be debating Dr. James Miller, Associate Professor of Economics at Smith College, on the topic of free trade. Dr. Miller has a PhD from the University of Chicago and is the author of Game Theory at Work and Singularity Rising: Surviving and Thriving in a Smarter, Richer, and More Dangerous World.

There are 440 seats left, so if you’re interested and you plan to attend, you can register for the free event here

This promises to be interesting. PhD from THE monetarist school vs BS from a econ department of Keynesians and socialists. Game Theorist vs Game Designer. Academic vs gamer.

The folks on Twitter don’t appear to like my chances of success. The worst odds that have been given against me are 68-1. On the other hand, Nate refuses to throw in the towel: Speaking as someone who’s actually debated you. I’m going to say the poor bastard has no idea what he’s in for.

So, whose chances do you like better? Looking at it objectively, I’d have to say that if I can somehow manage to win this one in a convincing fashion, I’m probably smarter than I think I am. There is only one way to find out.


Challenge accepted

A professor of economics with a PhD from the ultimate monetarist school throws down a gauntlet, albeit in a considerably more civil manner than I’ve come to expect from my critics:

I’ve recently started a podcast called Future Strategist and I would love to interview you by Skype audio.  We could discuss political correctness and debate free trade.  While I do not support open borders for people, I do support free trade in goods and while I doubt I could get you to change your opinion I hopefully wouldn’t underwhelm you as have other economists.

James Miller
Associate Professor of Economics, Smith College
Phd University of Chicago

I have accepted Dr. Miller’s challenge to debate free trade. More details to come.

By the way, he’s the author of Game Theory at Work, so he’s obviously a smart guy. We’re going to do one podcast discussion of political correctness first – he obviously won his 2003 tenure battle – and then we’ll do the debate, Game Theorist vs Game Designer.

UPDATE: Dr. Miller and I have decided to simply do the free trade debate, and we’ll do it at the Brainstorm on Wednesday. Invitations have already gone out to the Brainstorm members. Once all the members interested have taken their seats, I’ll open the remaining ones up to everyone else on a first-come, first-serve basis.

This is the sort of thing that Brainstorm makes possible, so if you want to be a part of it, consider signing up for an annual membership.


A dialogue with a Sanders voter

I can never decide whether it is more amusing or depressing that these are the sort of people who consider themselves to be better educated and more intelligent. Regardless, it is certainly ironic:

uraniumUmbra @bigbadelite
Not all are refugees. But the amount that are far outweigh those that aren’t.

Supreme Dark Lord @voxday
You have it completely backwards. The vast majority are not refugees.

uraniumUmbra @bigbadelite
Proof?

Supreme Dark Lord @voxday
You made a false and baseless claim. Now you want proof? You’re a moron.

uraniumUmbra @bigbadelite
You made a baseless claim then say I’m the one at fault.

Supreme Dark Lord @voxday
You made a totally false claim with zero support. You are wrong.

uraniumUmbra @bigbadelite
Well where the fuck is your proof? I’m open to being proven wrong

Supreme Dark Lord @voxday
You are wrong, you moron. You’ll get as much “proof” as you cited.

uraniumUmbra @bigbadelite
You offered no support either. I guess we are both wrong.

Supreme Dark Lord ‏@voxday
See, that’s why you are a moron. One of us HAS to be right. You’re not.

uraniumUmbra @bigbadelite
Then prove I’m not. This is why you’re a hypocrite.

uraniumUmbra @bigbadelite
If lack of a cited source makes me wrong then same standard to you.

Supreme Dark Lord @voxday
It’s not the lack of a cited source that makes your claim wrong. Idiot.

uraniumUmbra @bigbadelite
Most are running from ISIS. And until Vox here proves me wrong I stand by my claim.

Space Bunnyopoulos @Spacebunnyday
Standing by your baseless and demonstrably wrong claim just makes you an idiot.

What I find fascinating about this exchange is the way in which UrineShadow or whatever his name is observably does not understand the concept of objective reality. And basic logic, specifically, the law of non-contradiction, is also beyond him.

He doesn’t understand that due to the principium tertii exclusi, one of us has to be correct. Either most of the migrants are refugees or most of them are not refugees. The ability or inability of either of us to prove the case is totally irrelevant with regards to who is correct; the facts are what they are because the nature of the refugees is not dictated by our perception, definition, or knowledge of them.


But that is not the only problem. Note his accusation of hypocrisy, when in fact he is the only hypocrite here, demanding proof despite providing none in his original assertion. This is further proof of the Third Law of SJW: SJWs always project.

Contra the dictum of Saint Hitch, who was a witty man, but no logician, that which is asserted without proof cannot reasonably be dismissed without proof. For it is not proof, or evidence, or sources that matter, but truth, which is to say, a subjective opinion that is in line with observable objective reality.

The ability, or the willingness, to demonstrate this harmony is irrelevant with regards to the simple fact of its existence.


Lessons in Rhetoric: Christian edition

LB engages with a Christian SJW on the attack and observes they don’t behave any differently than their godless cousins, they merely rely upon different lies and double down on the sanctimony. A dialogue with analysis:

C-SJW: “Baptists have a habit of preaching ‘against’ the things of this life rather than preach Christ Jesus & Him crucified. They never point people towards the Holy Spirit, Who leads & guides into All Truth, comforts us & empowers us to live the Life that is INSIDE of us: Christ IN you, your hope of glory. Being in agreement about what we’re supposed to oppose hardly produces the Love of Christ in us to share with a hurting world.”

Analysis: There are a lot of dialectical bunny trails one might chase. But the SJW’s primary attack works on two levels: 1. rhetorical holiness posturing, and 2. a dialectically false interpretation of Scripture as New Age niceness congenial to the worldly Zeitgeist.

LB: “Concern troll is concerned. Go censor all the Biblical examples of preaching “against” things. You’ll be left with genealogies and genocides.”

Analysis: Direct dialectical refutation, but succinct and dismissive to retain rhetorical frame. To the dialectical, the SJW is done. But due to brevity, the rhetorical will hear the slap without seeing the bullets. This baits the SJW to come in hot, stupid, and overconfident. He responds in rhetorical kind.

C-SJW: “Put down the crack pipe & talk plainly. I have no idea of what you are speaking.”

Analysis: Insult + dialectical bait. If I expand and explain, I lose. Instead, I switch to rhetoric and reframe his incomprehension as stupidity.

LB: “In you is fulfilled the prophecy of Esaias.”

I know his pride is invested in superior Biblical knowledge, so I drop an obviously Biblical reference on him that I know he won’t get. Pride directs him to Google. Google then directs him to Matthew 13:14:

“And in them is fulfilled the prophecy of Esaias, which saith, By hearing ye shall hear, and shall not understand; and seeing ye shall see, and shall not perceive”

This is part of a longer passage in which Jesus explains that he deliberately speaks in confusing parables so that an undeserving people would NOT be saved. The reference simultaneously insults the C-SJW, refutes his universalist niceness, and silences his objection to my obscure speech, all using a direct New Testament quote from Jesus Christ himself.

C-SJW: “LOL, are you vexing me?  LOL  You are full of pride & it makes people not want to be around you. If you can’t walk in love & understanding, you can’t walk in the Light.”

Analysis: It’s a hit! Two all-capital LOLs. No different than a negged girl laughing off tingle-tension, although less aesthetically appealing. He starts reframing hard to rebuild his ego, launching all kinds of random and rabbity accusations. He has no possible support for them as I’ve done nothing but quote a single line of Scripture! It’s rhetorical and psychological, not dialectical.

He’s suddenly given me a lot of material in just four sentences, and it would be easy to be overwhelmed by target selection. But going off on a tangent would be a welcome psychological relief for him. I need to maintain and intensify the pressure, which means continuing to drive down the rhetorical middle. That would be his holiness posturing, which is now the only barrier between me and his fragile gamma ego.

LB: “By “walk in love and understanding,” I assume you mean “accuse people of smoking crack.””

Analysis: Barrier penetrated: hypocrisy demonstrated. Zero dialectic breather. Short reply highlights the verbosity of his butthurt reaction.

C-SJW: “Or calling me a troll”

Analysis: This is the SJW in retreat, now spewing squid ink. He’s trying to settle for moral equivalency rather than retain his superior holiness posture, and there’s no more attempt at offense. He’s crying foul and looking for the ref. Now it’s time to encircle and destroy. Mustn’t let him escape with a failed offensive and a minor tacit concession.

LB: “Not only are you a concern troll, you are too stupid to avoid exposing yourself as a posturing holier-than-thou hypocrite within the space of two comments. But you proved yourself a liar in your first comment: “They never point people towards the Holy Spirit”

I Googled “sanderson1611 Holy Spirit” and found 4 youtube sermons on it in 3 seconds.”

Analysis: The correct response to the cry of “foul” is to do it twice as hard – because it hurt. By repeating the accusation, I deny his lie of equating “concern troll” with “troll”. I then reject his frame of equal culpability, making the hypocrisy charge explicit. I don’t know what untried rhetorical options he has left at this point, other than Fall Silent.

C-SJW: *crickets*

Analysis: QED

This is really well-done rhetorical jujitsu. Knowing when to utilize pure rhetoric and when to launch a concise dialectical strike for rhetorical purposes is an art, not a science, and LB switches back and forth between the two very effectively here. The key, as he shows, is to identify the SJW’s primary point of pride and, Belichick-style, attack it. Then one has merely to recognize when emotional pain has been felt, as indicated by the nature of the reaction, and press harder on that point.

As LB implicitly noted, “laughing” is SJW for “you are hurting me”. Don’t get distracted and deviate into dialectic at that point, just press harder on the Schwerpunkt.


The Adams Summary

I described our exchange as I saw it, Scott Adams describes it his way:

My summary of that exchange is that I asked you to defend your position and you succeeded. That is rare.

I’m not suggesting the U.S. should allow Muslims to immigrate at this point in history. I’m just trying to find a market price at which folks would agree the risk is worth the benefit, as they see it. You see no benefit in religious tolerance (in this specific context) and I judge that to be a credible and consistent point of view.

Rare.

To be clear, I see no way we could keep the risk to 100 terror deaths per year with continued Muslim immigration. So my price can’t be met.

We end up at the same place. I priced it differently but neither of us wanted the deal.

I concur with his conclusion. We place different values, as measured in American lives, on the principle of religious freedom in the USA. But because he correctly recognizes that there is no way to keep the risk below the price he is willing to pay – which, contra my assumption, turned out to be his actual position on the matter – he ended up on the same place that I did.

Which is to say that Muslim immigration should be banned on the basis of the tangible risk it poses to the lives of Americans.


A dialogue with Scott Adams

To put it into context, I was quoting this piece by Adams to which I had already linked:

Vox Day ‏@voxday
“I would accept up to 1,000 dead Americans, over a ten-year period, to allow Muslim non-citizens to enter this country.” @ScottAdamsSays

Scott Adams ‏@ScottAdamsSays
What’s your number?

Vox Day ‏@voxday
Mine is zero. False dilemma. Plenary power doctrine permits Muslim immigration ban. 124 years of precedent.

Scott Adams ‏@ScottAdamsSays
The legal question can be separated.

Vox Day ‏@voxday
It can be, but it shouldn’t be. That IS the context, after all. Look, it’s a good question. Just bad answer.

emilio rodriguez ‏@emiliorrubio
Mine is also 0. Seeing as we gain NOTHING from muslim immigration. It’s no benefit for a cost.

Scott Adams ‏@ScottAdamsSays
Nothing except respect for people of different religions (freedom). Do you value that at zero?

Vox Day ‏@voxday
Yes, because I know military history. Muslim immigration into Dar al-Harb means war. Always.

Scott Adams ‏@ScottAdamsSays
It’s a risk assessment about saving more than lives than you kill (in the long run).

Vox Day ‏@voxday
You need to reassess. Because the correct answer is definitely and absolutely zero.

Scott Adams ‏@ScottAdamsSays
Religious intolerance has bad history. Are you sure it always ends well?

Vox Day ‏@voxday
Not always, but sometimes. If there was no intolerance at Vienna, at Lepanto, and Tours, no Enlightenment.

Scott Adams ‏@ScottAdamsSays
Would you expel legal Muslim residents in the country under the same principle of safety over principle?

Vox Day ‏@voxday
Yes. And I predict that every single Western country will within three decades. Reconquesta 2.0.

Vox Day ‏@voxday
False dilemma, though. Your principle doesn’t exist legally, and it’s your principle, not mine.

Scott Adams ‏@ScottAdamsSays
Opinion noted. See my book, The Religion War (sequel to God’s Debris). Speaks to that scenario, in fiction.

Now, if you wish to analyze this, what you’ll see is Adams engaging in pseudo-dialectic, while I am utilizing dialectic in a rhetorical manner. With its 140-character limit, Twitter is a very poor medium for complex communication, but it does have the benefit of stripping away the ability to engage easily in word games. The simplicity of the medium makes communication cruder, but more direct.

Adams is not an SJW, but here he argues in a similar manner, simply moving the goalposts each time his point is successfully dealt with. However, Adams is an intellectual in the true sense; he likes to play with ideas so one should never assume that what he is saying is necessarily what he genuinely believes.

Adams knows the choice he puts forth is a false dilemma; it is based on a false foundation of the United States being a polity that enforces complete religious freedom. This is nonsense, as the transmutation of “Congress shall make no law” into “a moment of silence in public schools is outlawed” suffices to demonstrate. And Muslims are already banned from immigrating as “people who practice polygamy” as per the 1891 statute.

That’s why Scott wants to leave the legal aspects out, because they also render his dilemma moot. He tries risk assessment, but that’s even worse ground for him both rhetorically and dialectically due to the 1,300-year history of Muslim violence. So he tries to go to the abstract, but as numerous people on Twitter pointed out, “respect” is not synonymous with “granting permanent residence rights and citizenship”.

In the end, he’s forced to argue from incredulity concerning an proposition that no one has even made yet, but even there, he’s on shaky ground because most Americans would happily repatriate every Muslim in America tomorrow. While he does do a good job maintaining frame, the problem with doing so as your argument keeps shifting is that you eventually wind up looking like one of those whom Aristotle described as being unable to learn from information.


Lessons in Rhetoric: Atheist edition

This atheist – sorry, “gnostic atheist” – decided to insert himself into the conversation following my observation that Richard Dawkins demonstrably does not know what “evidence” is:

Sapien @VernacularSwag
@voxday @RichardDawkins Stop talking. Atheism and agnosticism aren’t mutually exclusive terms. 90% of self-described atheists are agnostic

Vox Day @voxday
There is considerable evidence for God. You like definitions: look up “evidence”.

Sapien @VernacularSwag
LOL. Name one piece of evidence. You now are taking the affirmative

Vox Day @voxday
You’re laughing because you’re stupid. Again, look up “evidence”.

Sapien @VernacularSwag
I’m not the one pointing to invisible arguments for my position.

Vox Day @voxday
Neither am I. You don’t know what evidence is. Your arguments are hopelessly wrong.

Sapien @VernacularSwag
What the actual fuck

Sapien @VernacularSwag
You’re refusing to even have the discussion so how do you even know what my argument is

Sapien @VernacularSwag
You claim there is evidence for god yet refuse to provide an example and I’m the stupid one

Sapien @VernacularSwag
Go look it up for yourself, I’m done arguing against your ignorance

Sapien @VernacularSwag
you said considerable amount so surely it should be easy to provide just one

Vox Day @voxday
It is. But I know the Atheist Dance. You’re too intellectually short for the ride.

Sapien @VernacularSwag
Try me

Vox Day @voxday
No. The train is fine. Stop talking.

Sapien @VernacularSwag
It’s much easier to win argument that never happens isn’t it

Vox Day @voxday
What the actual fuck? Stop talking. The train is still fine.

Sapien @VernacularSwag
What the hell is this train you keep talking about lol

Vox Day @voxday
The train that is fine.

Sapien @VernacularSwag
…are you okay?

Vox Day @voxday
Yes. So is the train.

Sapien @VernacularSwag
Are you just saying random things to derail the convo now or what?

Vox Day @voxday
The train is not derailed. I already told you it is fine. Stop worrying about the train.

Needless to say, he’s doing a wonderful job proving my observation about the high degree of correlation between atheists and what used to be called “Asperger’s Syndrome”. I suppose now we could simply call it “atheism”. Or, if they prefer, “gnostic atheism”.

It’s certainly interesting to see that eight years after the New Atheists burst onto the scene waving the bloody flag of atheism, even Richard Dawkins is now publicly claiming that he is merely an “agnostic” and atheists are insisting that “atheism” merely means “personal disbelief in the existence of God” and certainly not any positive claim that God does not exist.

NB: as an additional discrediting flourish, directly quote their little rhetorical jabs once they’ve used them. If you don’t overdo it, it serves to underline their disinterest in genuine dialectic.


Lessons in Rhetoric: Swedish edition

Markus from Sweden @the_Markunator
@voxday So you’re glad that Breivik did what he did? You’re fucking despicable.

Vox Day @voxday
Why do you support Swedish women being raped and murdered by invaders? You’re despicable and a coward.

Markus from Sweden @the_Markunator
Why do you support the mass murder of innocent teenagers?

Vox Day @voxday
Why do you support Swedish women being raped and murdered by invaders? You’re despicable and a coward.

Markus from Sweden @the_Markunator
You are a pathetic racist fascist cunt.

Vox Day @voxday
You are a testosterone-free evolutionary dead end. Why do you sacrifice Swedish women to orcs?

Markus from Sweden @the_Markunator
Men of colour are not orcs.

Vox Day @voxday
Yes, they are. See, here’s a picture and everything!

Markus from Sweden @the_Markunator
You are just sad.

Vox Day @voxday
You’re an aspie who still lives with his parents. That’s called “psychological projection”. Also, the train is fine.

Markus from Sweden @the_Markunator
I’m not a fascist shit, so I’m better than you, and what train are you talking about?

Vox Day @voxday
The train is fine, Markus. The train is fine.

Markus from Sweden @the_Markunator
What train?!

Vox Day @voxday
The train that is fine.