Tag: Clown World

Big Serge’s 2024 Ukraine Summary

Big Serge is one of the Internet’s best military historians. Here, in one of his characteristically long and detailed analyses, he provides his 2024 summary of the Ukraine conflict and explains how Ukraine is effectively debellized.

2024 actually saw several very important developments which make the coming shape of the war relatively clear. To briefly recapitulate:

  • Russian forces caved in Ukrainian defenses at depth across an entire critical axis of front. After remaining static for years, Ukraine’s position in Southern Donetsk has been obliterated, with Russian forces advancing through an entire belt of fortified positions, pushing the front into Pokrovsk and Kostayantinivka.
  • The main Ukrainian gambit on the ground (the incursion into Kursk) failed spectacularly, with the salient being progressively caved in. An entire grouping of critical mechanized formations wasted much of the year fighting on this unproductive and secondary front, leaving Ukrainian positions in the Donbas increasingly threadbare and bereft of reserves.
  • An attempt by the Ukrainian government to reinvigorate its mobilization program failed, with enlistments quickly trailing off. Decisions to expand the force structure exacerbated the shortage of manpower, and as a result the decay of Ukraine’s frontline brigades has accelerated.
  • Long awaited western upgrades to Ukraine’s strike capabilities failed to defeat Russian momentum, and stocks of ATACMs and Storm Shadows are nearly exhausted. There are now few options remaining to prop up Ukrainian strike capacity, and no prospect of Ukraine gaining dominance in this dimension of the war.

In short, Ukraine is on the path to debellation – defeat through the total exhaustion of its capacity to resist. They are not exactly out of men and vehicles and missiles, but these lines are all pointing downward. A strategic Ukrainian defeat – once unthinkable to the western foreign policy apparatus and commentariat – is now on the table. Quite interestingly, now that Donald Trump is about to return to the White House, it is suddenly acceptable to speak of Ukrainian defeat. Robert Kagan – a stalwart champion of Ukraine if there ever was one – now says the quiet part out loud:

Ukraine will likely lose the war within the next 12 to 18 months. Ukraine will not lose in a nice, negotiated way, with vital territories sacrificed but an independent Ukraine kept alive, sovereign, and protected by Western security guarantees. It faces instead a complete defeat, a loss of sovereignty, and full Russian control.

Indeed.

None of this should be particularly surprising. If anything, it is shocking that my position – that Russia is essentially a very powerful country that was very unlikely to lose a war (which it perceives as existential) right in its own belly – somehow became controversial or fringe. But here we are.

I couldn’t agree more. The position of Clown World, led by the architects of its strategery like Robert Kagan, was always insane, incoherent, and ill-informed. It’s worth noting that the very champions of the ill-advised proxy war, including Kagan, are now offering their advice to Trump on how to best handle what they call “negotiations with Putin” but are actually a very thin veil for the inevitable surrender.

Russia has not only defeated the Ukrainian forces, it has comprehensively defeated the EU and the USA in military, diplomatic, strategic, and economic terms. This isn’t the “pro-Russian” position, it is the objective position, and with the exception of the economic context, it was always and completely obvious from the start. The problem is that even now, the would-be negotiators completely fail to understand Russia, its leadership, it’s people, and its objectives.

They would do well to stop posturing and pontificating, and instead, read War and Peace.

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The Crisis of Clown World

It simply cannot be swept under the rug or sugar-coated any longer: the Western order is in literal crisis. The people have had enough, and the avalanche is picking up inertia because the process is a self-reinforcing feedback loop: the more wanton elites fall, the more that citizens are energized to rise up against them. And when that happens, the elites are forced to clamp and double down on their lies, hypocrisy, and repressions in a futile attempt to stem the flow; this leads to even more ill-will, resentment, and revolt against their destructive policies.

Simplicius observes this. Peter Turchin predicted this. I predicted this. It’s becoming really freaking obvious to everyone now, everyone except the lunatics still trying to cling to power.

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Trudeau Doesn’t Actually Resign

He has announced that he intends to resign. In March. Once a new party leader is determined. Maybe. Assuming that nothing changes in the next three months.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced he intends to resign as Liberal Party leader and prime minister once a new party leader is determined. “I intend to resign as party leader, as prime minister, after the party selects its next leader through a robust, nationwide, competitive process,” he said Monday from Rideau Cottage in Ottawa. Trudeau will serve as prime minister until March 24. He will then be replaced by a new Liberal Party leader.

There sure are a lot of lame duck leaders across the West of late…

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Fake Trump Backs Fake Americans

The short guy playing Donald Trump endorses the attack on American workers and their wages by Elon Musk and Ramaswampy:

Donald Trump shocked MAGA faithful by siding with Elon Musk and other tech titans after a fierce debate over immigration visas sent his supporters into a meltdown. Musk this week threatened to ‘go to war’ with MAGA republicans after he defended visas for skilled foreigners over American-born employees.

The Tesla founder and billionaire, who was recruited by Trump to co-lead his new Department of Government Efficiency, has expressed his support for the H-1B visa, which allows highly educated immigrants to work in the US for up to six years. On Saturday, the president-elect praised the use of visas to bring skilled foreign workers to the U.S. The topic has become a flashpoint within his conservative base.

‘I´ve always liked the visas, I have always been in favor of the visas. That´s why we have them,’ Trump told the New York Post. In fact, Trump has in the past criticized the H-1B visas, calling them ‘very bad’ and ‘unfair’ for U.S. workers.

There are two possibilities here. One is that Donald Trump simply changed his mind and is now on the side of the foreigners and the Swamp. The other is that the same people who produced five fake Bidens and hid the real one’s senility for five years with the complicity of the mainstream people have also produced a fake Trump, who is saying the same thing that the fake Bidens were saying before him.

However hard it is for you to believe that the media would deceive you, Occam’s Razor strongly suggests the latter, especially when the pro-invasion Trump is seven inches shorter than the Trump who opposed H1-B visas.

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Nationalism > Meritocracy

A lucid explanation of why nationalism, genuine ethnicity-based nationalism as opposed to the fake “civic nationalism” that has been the basis for the decline and fall of the United States since 1965, is much more honest, much more open, and much more effective than the so-called “meritocracy” of those who anoint themselves and their foreign kin as “the best and brightest”:

Homogenous group strategies offer better, more legible protection than diverse meritocratic ones Ethnonationalism is a legible, simple protective group strategy strategy in the grand game for power and influence. You have a country that’s only for people like you, and it’s very easy to check whether that constrain has been violated. Mass immigration, diversity quotas, legal protections etc claims to offer the same protection. “We’ll make the workforce more diverse, but only by hiring the best candidates”, “There aren’t enough skilled white candidates!” But violating the constraint of hiring in a colorblind way is extremely illegible.

The entire recruitment process is full of hidden information – the employer secretly runs some process to hire people and can even incentivize hiring managers to hire ‘diverse’ candidates. You have absolutely no idea how many times you have been discriminated against for being white and male. But of course occasionally bosses will blurt it out – I’ve heard it at least twice personally. And then there are ways to craft the selection criteria that appear to be colorblind but actually aren’t (this has been done to exclude East Asians from Elite schools), or to demand equal representation based on an assumption of equal skill (low quality black doctors being hired for DEI).

There are just so many ways to cheat to gain advantage in a more diverse society, and those forms of cheating are harder to check for or politically hard to get rid of (because everything in a democracy needs to be politically viable in addition to being technically viable) “We’ll just take the most talented people from everywhere so everything will be better” simply ignores political economics and game theory. In fact I think these kind of appeals to meritocracy are bad on purpose – the people making them know that a more diverse game will be more corrupt and they like it that way.

In short, what the wicked call “hate” is morally and rationally superior to inclusivity, be it nominally meritocratic or diversity-fueled. Notice that for all of their blathering about “merit”, they’ll be the first to declare they would never hire a racist no matter how intelligent, accomplished, or capable he might be. Their entire position is an obvious lie.

Elon Musk, Ramaswampy, and the short Trump are as fake and as in service to Clown World as the overt globalists they pretend to oppose. I’ve never understood why anyone on the Right took Musk or Ramaswampy any more seriously than Ben Shapiro, Jordan Peterson, or any other member of the controlled fake opposition.

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Ramaswampy Doesn’t Know America

A primary example of fake and manufactured “success” tries to convince Americans that emulating India is the way to make America great again.

The reason top tech companies often hire foreign-born & first-generation engineers over “native” Americans isn’t because of an innate American IQ deficit (a lazy & wrong explanation). A key part of it comes down to the c-word: culture. Tough questions demand tough answers & if we’re really serious about fixing the problem, we have to confront the TRUTH:

Our American culture has venerated mediocrity over excellence for way too long (at least since the 90s and likely longer). That doesn’t start in college, it starts YOUNG. A culture that celebrates the prom queen over the math olympiad champ, or the jock over the valedictorian, will not produce the best engineers.

A culture that venerates Cory from “Boy Meets World,” or Zach & Slater over Screech in “Saved by the Bell,” or ‘Stefan’ over Steve Urkel in “Family Matters,” will not produce the best engineers.

(Fact: I know multiple sets of immigrant parents in the 90s who actively limited how much their kids could watch those TV shows precisely because they promoted mediocrity…and their kids went on to become wildly successful STEM graduates).

When America didn’t allow millions of Hindus to invade the USA, American culture venerated the prom queen and produced the world’s best engineers. Ramaswampy doesn’t know anything about American culture for the obvious reason: he’s not an American and the USA he grew up in was culturally dominated by the self-serving foreign elite that has driven the USA into second-world status.

Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswampy are not the good guys. They’re not Americans and they’re not on the side of America at all. They’re the Deep State’s attempt to control the nationalist opposition, which is why you’re seeing them come out hard against Americans, nationalism, and sooner or later, Christianity. As to why “Trump” is putting them front and center of his incoming administration, well, either Trump has been fully corrupted by the Deep State, Trump is playing his would-be gatekeepers, or the individual playing the role of Donald Trump is not, in fact, the genuine Trump.

No doubt that sounds far-fetched, but then, most people thought it was pretty far-fetched when I said that Joe Biden was a) senile and b) did not win the 2020 election.

Regardless, Americans just want the USA to be American again. Ramaswampy and his fake elite are part of the problem, not the solution.

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The Limited Lessons of the Ukraine War

A lot of important lessons are being learned, or perhaps it would be more accurate to say “relearned” from the current war in Ukraine. But, as Anarchonomicon observes, a number of the various elements of this war are unique and unlikely to be repeated:

You have the resources of dozens of nations representing over half the world’s economy being poured into a country that can neither win nor negotiate, to fight its similar neighbor that also has to fight it out despite the cost due to the international strategic implications, both of whom are Slavic-white countries who both had strong reserves of nationalism and patriotism and avoided the kind of multi-culti mass-immigration that has zapped the willingness to fight for their country right out of every white man in the west, and because of a series of geostrategic accidents they spontaneously agreed to limit the fighting to stretch of land as narrow as that between the Swiss Border and the English Channel.

That’s a whole lot of conditions that will probably never hold again. Or at least certainly not for the next hundred years given the demographic crises everywhere and the pending death of the nation state.

  • If the smaller state doesn’t have allies who can fund it to the tune 50+% its annual GDP it can’t happen.
  • If either country has endured mass immigration/multiculturalism and doesn’t have an eastern european level paradoxical ultra-nationalism for their decaying shithole country…it can’t happen.
  • If either country isn’t being bribed/backed into a corner to refuse all negotiation, it can’t happen.
  • And if either country would rather just expand the war geographically and not fight an attritional trench war, it can’t happen.

The most important thing to note is that Ukraine is Clown World’s proxy. The entire Empire That Never Ended is fighting Russia, and is in the process of losing the war militarily, economically, and diplomatically. And once Clown World either contracts or collapses entirely, there isn’t a similar force on Earth capable of recreating it.

Which means any lessons about late-stage imperial proxy wars will probably not be relevant for another 200 years.

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All “Success” is Manufactured

Indeed. What are the odds? And looking at them, what are the chances that they aren’t related in some way? Once you grasp the basic concept of its reality, the outlines of Clown World become clearer and clearer over time. It’s a club, you’re not in it, and more importantly, if you value your immortal soul, you do not want to be in it or even have anything to do with it.

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False Marketing

Women’s athletes and the Texas Attorney General are waging a war against baphometism and Clown World institutions like the NCAA:

San Jose State women’s volleyball star Brooke Slusser warned the NCAA after Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton filed a lawsuit against the organization over transgender inclusion in women’s sports. Paxton filed the lawsuit on Sunday, accusing the organization of deceptive marketing practices for allowing transgender women to compete against biological females. Paxton said in a news release the NCAA violated the Texas Trade Practices Act “which exists to protect consumers from businesses attempting to mislead or trick them into purchasing goods or services that are not as advertised.”

Slusser, who was a part of a lawsuit against her own school and the NCAA for allowing a transgender woman on the Spartans’ roster this season, posted about Paxton’s suit.

“Hey NCAA, just in case you haven’t realized yet this fight will just keep getting harder for you until you make a change!” Slusser wrote on X.

Paxton accused the NCAA of “engaging in false, deceptive, and misleading practices by marketing sporting events as ‘women’s’ competitions only to then provide consumers with mixed sex competitions where biological males compete against biological females.”

“The NCAA is intentionally and knowingly jeopardizing the safety and well-being of women by deceptively changing women’s competitions into co-ed competitions,” Paxton said in a statement. “When people watch a women’s volleyball game, for example, they expect to see women playing against other women – not biological males pretending to be something they are not. Radical ‘gender theory’ has no place in college sports.”

Paxton said he was seeking a court to grant a permanent injunction to prohibit the NCAA from allowing transgender athletes in women’s sports in Texas or “involving Texas teams, or alternatively requiring the NCAA to stop marketing events as ‘women’s’ when in fact they are mixed sex competitions,” the news release said.

The false marketing angle against men who compete in women’s sports is a much better and more legally powerful angle than the “fairness” angle that was borrowed from feminism. Because a man is not a woman, it is easy to demonstrate that a man is not a woman, and it is obviously false marketing to claim that coed sports are “women’s sports”.

Lawfare is a side that cuts both ways, but it needs to be intelligently applied, and it must be kept in mind that the rhetoric for one side is seldom as effective for the other.

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The Fall of the Fake Democracies

Simplicius rightly calls out the fake democratic imperialism of Clown World’s European slave-leaders and their woefully misnamed “rules-based order”:

A new speech by Georgian pretender Salome Zourabichvili to the EU Parliament is a must-see. It is the very apotheosis of the Rules Based Order’s terminal decline, on which we’ve enlarged at length here. As things get down to the wire and the European ruling elite squander their mandate from the people, they have no avenue left but to ratchet up totalitarian policies to stay in power—and to keep the system, that interconnected grid of elite deep state power in control. As that occurs, their anti-democratic calls become increasingly naked, as they’re forced to say the quiet parts aloud:

It is in the context of what recently happened in Romania and elsewhere that her speech is seen in its most egregious light. She essentially calls on European powers to intervene in her own country, to act against her own people and government, which she calls illegitimate; for the record she’s now called both the parliamentary and presidential elections illegitimate and has vowed to illegally stay past her deadline.

There are so many outright shockingly hypocritical and treasonous statements it would be too long to list them all. Right from the getgo she blames Russian “imperialistic tendencies” for wanting to influence Georgia, yet almost in the same breath declares that Georgia is a “strategic interest” for Europe, and that Europe should therefore move in to take control of it. Is that not imperialism by the same name?

She goes on along the tack of saying the unspoken by naming every strategic advantage that NATO and the EU would see with Georgia under their control, such as control of the Black Sea, Armenia, the Caucuses, amongst other things.

She hails the illegal nullification of the Romanian election, which is met with resounding applause by the corrupt unelected bureaucrats. And this shows the flagrant corruption of the system—a dying empire seeks only absolute power and expansion at all costs, nothing else matters. Laws, rules, democratic principles are mere frivolities to be used as bargaining chips or talking points as means to an end.

It has become abundantly clear that nothing the Enlightenment promised is real. Every single intellectual pillar upon which it rests, from biology and economics to physics and science, is entirely false. Not misleading or mistaken, entirely and consciously false.

These wicked people aren’t even the atheist materialists they pretend to be!

However, these are dangerous times, because every time The Empire That Never Ended is exposed and overthrown, it lashes out and attempts to do as much damage as it can on the way out. But this time, we have to do a better job of chronicling its evil, in order to avoid future historians crying about the methods required to both repress the evil and unleash positive human potential.

The demographic and economic consequences of the Black Death, which kept populations down and labour scarce well into the 1400s, exacerbated conflict. After about 1470, however, the balancee tilted across Europe. This can be seen most vividly in the consolidation of powerful new monarchies in France, Eland, and Spain… Political consolidation was accompanied by increasingly rigid social hierarchies and a new wave of repression directed against those who diverged from Christian ideals. At the same time, intellectual innovation beginning in Italy transformed education, religion, and eventually elite culture as a whole.
– A Concise History of Switzerland

We’ve seen the dreadful fruits resulting from the rule of an elite that diverged from Christian ideals. That pendulum has already reached its apex, and now it is swinging back toward new political consolidations, increasingly rigid hierarchies, and new waves of repression and intellectual innovation that will, taken in their entirey, have massively positive effects for humanity and the world.

The connection between social discipline and positive social advancement is no different than the one between personal discipline and positive personal improvement. The obese, drugged, immoral, dishonest, society in which we live is the direct result of the West’s abject failure to reject and repress The Empire That Never Ended and its wicked representatives like Salome Zourabichvili. It is the direct result of rejecting the truth and foolishly choosing to believe Clown World’s lies.

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