They Aspire To Be Better

The Tree of Woe contemplates the ideological history of Chinese communism and considers the implications of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era. Read the whole thing there.

I have summarized the tenets of Xi Jinping Thought. You can find the Thoughts in Xi’s own words here.

  1. The CCP leads the government, the military, the academia, and the people.
  2. The Party must serve the interests of the public and govern the country for the people.
  3. Only socialism can save China. Only reform can develop China.
  4. Scientific development is the key to solving all the problems of the country.
  5. China’s representative institutions must develop according to the principals of socialism with Chinese characteristics.
  6. The judicial system must be reformed to enforce rule of law and improve morality.
  7. China must foster the cultural values of socialism with Chinese characteristics.
  8. Improving people’s livelihood is the primary goal of economic development, in order to maintain social harmony, ensure stability, and provide the people with contentment.
  9. China must protect its energy supplies and natural environment as it develops.
  10. China must strengthen its national security and prepare for danger.
  11. The CCP must retain absolute control over the armed forces.
  12. Achieving complete national reunification of Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan into the mainland is the paramount requirement for the rejuvenation of China.
  13. China must be the builder of world peace and defender of the international order.
  14. China must have a zero-tolerance attitude for corruption and decadence within the Party.

Chinese thought is, almost inherently by virtue of its language, nuanced and delicate. Chinese writing is often susceptible to multiple interpretations, and is perhaps the diametric opposite of frank and blunt Americanism. With that caveat, here is how I believe we should understand the tenets of Xi Jinping Thought.

Points 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, and 11 are reiterations of the Marxist-Leninist belief in the necessity of totalitarian control by a vanguard party that maintains ideological purity, organizes the people in the pursuit of communism, and maintains leadership in all facets of society. They represent the diametric opposite of our hoped-for “liberalization” of China. These points need to be understand in the context of Xi’s views on the Soviet Union, which he presented at the Eighteenth Party Congress:

Why did the Soviet Union disintegrate? Why did the Soviet Communist Party fall from power? An important reason was that the struggle in the field of ideology was extremely intense, completely negating the history of the Soviet Union, negating the history of the Soviet Communist Party, negating Lenin, negating Stalin, creating historical nihilism and confused thinking. Party organs at all levels had lost their functions, the military was no longer under Party leadership. In the end, the Soviet Communist Party, a great party, was scattered, the Soviet Union, a great socialist country, disintegrated. This is a cautionary tale!

Xi Jinping, Eighteenth Party Congress

Xi Jinping Thought is making a clear statement that China will not become “liberalized” like the Soviet Union; it will not engage in glasnost and perestroika and develop into a multi-party parliamentary democracy in the Western style. Xi Jinping Thought is also making it clear that China in the New Era hasn’t progressed to that stage of communism when the state will wither away, either. It will maintain its ideological commitment to Communism and it will do so under one-party rule.

Point 8 re-emphasizes that the goal of socialism with Chinese characteristics is to eliminate poverty and create prosperity. The means by which this is to be accomplished are explained as scientific development (point 4) in conjunction with sustainable environmental and ecological practices (point 9). The latter point must be understood in a pragmatic context – the CCP are not deep ecologists or Gaia worshippers. When Europe was poor, it tolerated pollution (“London fog”) to achieve wealth; when it became rich, it could afford clean air and clean water. China, as it gets richer, will want clean air and clean water, too. If it can make the West pay for that because of our commitment to “climate justice”, so much the better!

Points 6 and 14 emphasize anti-corruption. Confucianism, with its emphasis on each person’s particular duty to their family, can lead to endemic nepotism, which in turn can lead to corruption and self-dealing. Like Deng Xiaoping before him, Xi is emphasizing anti-corruption as a means of ensuring domestic harmony and stability. Purging “corruption” is also a useful tool for consolidating one-party rule in the face of oligarchic wealth, as uppity billionaires and their crony politicians are inevitably corrupt…

Finally, Points 10, 12, and 13 explain China’s place in the world. Point 12 emphasizes that China is a civilization-state: All that is Chinese (culturally) must be part of China (politically). Particular emphasis is given to Taiwan. Left unsaid is Taiwan’s incredible strategic importance to point 4, scientific development, because of its world leadership in semiconductor manufacturing.

Point 13 positions China as the world’s new hegemon. Conventionally, we identify a hegemon at any point in time by speaking of its pax, the peace it imposes through its power — hence, the Pax Romana, Pax Britannica, and Pax Americana. For China to be builder of world peace and defender of the international order is for China to impose the Pax Sinica.

Point 10 acknowledges that achieving all these other points puts China at risk from those who would prevents its rise (the unstated foe is, of course, the United States). The implacable tendency towards war that occurs anytime a new hegemon arises against an old is called a Thucydides Trap (named for the Greek historian Thucydides and his account of the Peloponnesian War between mighty Sparta and rising Athens). Xi here is codifying the need to prepare for this war to come.

Taken as a whole, Xi Jinping Thought is an ambitious and confident doctrine meant to make the 21st century the Chinese Century.

Until recently, the West has been oblivious to this. Instead, it has taken comfort in pretty lies. “The Chinese don’t really believe in Communism!” They really do. “If China doesn’t become a capitalist democracy, it’ll collapse into poverty.” They won’t. “As the Chinese become more prosperous, they’ll become more like us!” They won’t.

This last delusion is utterly laughable — our Western intelligentsia hates Western culture, Western history, and Western civilization. The Chinese intelligentsia loves Chinese culture, Chinese history, and Chinese civilization. Can you imagine a Chinese scholar denouncing Mao or Confucius as irrelevant because they’re just dead Chinese males? No, they don’t aspire to be like us. They aspire to be better than us.

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Shut ‘Em Down

The Jacksonville air traffic controllers walk over the vaccine mandate:

Jacksonville Center ATC controllers walked out last night over the vaccine mandate. Shut the whole thing down. Total disaster for us and other airlines. Total news blackout, be sure you spread the word.

650 flights canceled so far. Our operation is still unraveling.

The pilots haven’t started to fight yet. That’s coming.

Meanwhile, in the media:

  • JUST IN: Airports across Florida are experiencing delays due to bad weather conditions.
  • Due to a combination of severe weather, active military training in the airspace, and unexpected limited staff at the Jacksonville facility that handles high-altitude, en route traffic, the FAA took steps to safely manage air traffic the evening of Oct. 8. Normal operations returned at approximately 10 p.m.

Regardless, it is confirmed that there were 10,028 worldwide flight delays and 2,428 cancellations yesterday. The normal daily number of the latter is 329. And check out the Jacksonville weather report for October 8th. No precipitation, 72 degrees, 5.1 MPH wind. What sort of “severe weather” is that?

UPDATE: Yeah, it’s totally the weather. The so-called “news” is literally worse than worseless these days.

Southwest has cancelled more than 1,800 flights over the weekend so far. The Dallas-based airline blamed the disruptions on air traffic control issues in Florida and bad weather. Southwest Airlines canceled more than 1,000 flights, 27% of its schedule, on Sunday as disruptions that the airline blamed on air traffic control issues and bad weather affected the travel plans of thousands of customers.

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The Monks of the Next Dark Age

John Derbyshire laments the death of the book:

Some years ago New Yorker magazine ran a cover picture of a guy sitting in an armchair working a laptop, with behind him a whole wall full of books. Every one of the books had, on its spine, a little face drawn. The faces were sad, angry, or plaintive.

That came to mind this month when I heard that Book Revue, my village’s independent bookstore, was closing. In their last week, the week of September 6th, they marked down all of their huge inventory. I went in to pick up some bargains, but for some reason felt no urge to buy and left empty-handed.

The following Tuesday, when I passed by, they had already cleared out the whole place. The empty shelves were a melancholy sight.

When we settled here thirty years ago the village had Book Revue and two second-hand bookstores, with a couple of the big chain retailers in nearby shopping centers. Now the nearest place to buy a book, or just browse, is in the mega-mall fifteen miles away. At any rate, there was a Barnes & Noble there when I last went, a couple of years ago …

“Oh, people just buy their books online—lots of books!” That’s what you hear if you raise the topic. I call it whistling through the graveyard, and think of that New Yorker cover. Books are dying a slow death, going the way that cuneiform on clay tablets went when papyrus came up.

It’s geezerish to grumble about it, and anyway futile. History stumbles on, and the old gives way to the new. For someone of my generation, though, for whom books have been a solace and a delight from childhood onward, it is sad, sad.

I feel exactly the opposite way. When I recall my childhood library filled with ephemeral paperbacks, and contrast that with the glorious image of my office library filled with beautiful leatherbound books by Franklin Library, Easton, and, of course, Castalia Library, I feel encouraged and restored.

Anyhow, you’ll definitely want to subscribe just so you can get the Landmark Thucydides at what will almost certainly be a break-even price from us. It’s going to be an incredible edition, unquestionably the best ever published of the 2,000-year-old book, but due to the unusually large width required for the maps and footnotes, it is going to be even more expensive to produce than the Plutarchs were. But nevertheless, it will be a subscription book because we want our subscribers to know that we appreciate them and want them to have the best books we produce.

In any event, the book will not die any century soon. It is considerably more likely that the lights will go out and the ebook will disappear, quite possibly before the end of the 21st century. We are the monks of the next literary Dark Age.

So don’t be sad, sub-scribe.

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“Reunification Must Be Realized”

Xi Xinping doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room for any misinterpretation of his intentions concerning Taiwan.

China harbours ambitions of a ‘peaceful reunification’ with Taiwan, the country’s leader Xi Jinping said ahead of the island’s National Day of celebration on Sunday.

The president’s renewed call for the island to be integrated into China comes amid a rise in aggressive threats and provocative military action over Taiwanese airspace in recent days.

Mr Xi was speaking at an official celebration in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People that focused largely on the need for the ruling Communist Party to continue to lead China as the country rises in power and influence.

‘Reunification of the nation must be realised, and will definitely be realised,’ he warned. ‘Reunification through a peaceful manner is the most in line with the overall interest of the Chinese nation, including Taiwan compatriots.’

I’ve written an analysis of why I don’t believe the US will interfere with Chinese reunification and submitted it for publication. It will be interesting to see if it is published or not. If not, I will publish it here.

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Don’t Blame Russia if Europe Freezes

Even Angela Merkel has admitted that the European natural gas shortage is not Russia’s fault:

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has rejected suggestions that the increased price of gas is due to Russian policy. Instead she has pointed the finger at the EU’s own approach asking whether the bloc could have acted differently.
Speaking on Wednesday, Merkel noted that Russia has never refused to deliver gas and has fulfilled its contractual obligations.

“That’s why we should ask the question: was enough gas ordered, or is the high price at the moment maybe the reason for not ordering so much?” Merkel asked, according to London’s Financial Times.

The European Union has sought to move gas trading to the spot market in recent years, whereas Russia has consistently preferred long-term contracts, often as long as 25 years. Russian President Vladimir Putin has pointed at the reluctance of the bloc to sign longer deals as a cause for rising prices.

So, the Europeans didn’t order enough natural gas to meet their needs, shut down their nuclear plants, and chose to rely upon green energy production that has fallen woefully short of requirements. But since Putin refuses to sell them additional gas at contract prices at the same time they are trying to deny Russia’s ability to deliver gas via the new Nordstream 2 pipeline, this is somehow supposed to be all Russia’s fault.

Literally no one is buying it. Which raises the obvious question: what else are they lying about? Other than Covid and the “safe and effective” vaxxes, of course.

US Provides Casus Belli

The US military has now provided China with a legitimate reason to take action in Taiwan. Whether it is intended as bait or whether it’s simply reprehensible stupidity, I cannot say.

Small units of Taiwan’s military ground forces have been trained by a U.S. special operations unit and a contingent of Marines, who have been secretly operating in that country, The Wall Street Journal is reporting.

Some two dozen members of U.S. special-operations and support troops have been conducting the training in an effort to strengthen Taiwan’s defenses in light of concerns about potential aggression by China.

Officials tell the paper that American forces have been conducting the training for at least a year.

To put it in perspective, imagine what the response from Washington would be if Russian Spetsnaz units were secretly operating in Idaho, training small units of “right wing extremists” and “Christian antivaxxers”. Remember, Taiwan is a Chinese province, and there is almost certainly a higher percentage of Taiwanese that wish to be governed by Beijing than Idahoans that want to be governed by Washington.

The Global Times, which is an English-speaking mouthpiece for the CPC, has made it very clear that this sort of foreign military intervention will not be tolerated:

It is impossible for any foreign force to deter or stop the process of China’s reunification as the mainland is determined to crack down on all kinds of foreign intervention and capable of doing so, and could reunify the island by force if necessary, Yuan Zheng, deputy director of the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Thursday.

“The only thing that matters for the US and its allies is that how big a price they want to pay to test China’s strength and determination on this matter,” Yuan noted.

That the island of Taiwan’s attempts to resist reunification by force cannot succeed, and no matter what weapons the Taiwan secessionists make or buy, they cannot change the fact that the PLA has overwhelming advantages in the Taiwan Straits and surrounding areas, analysts said, stressing that once the mainland decides to solve the Taiwan question by force, no weapon can deter the unshakeable determination of 1.4 billion people to realize national reunification.

“PLA presence around Taiwan ‘targets secessionism, foreign forces’”, Global Times, 7 October 2021

The reason that they’re trying to train the Taiwanese forces is pretty obvious, though, as the island’s military has clearly become incapable of presenting the PLA with a hard target as its capabilities have declined relative to those of the mainland.

Two years back I wrote an article for Foreign Policy with the title “Taiwan Can Win a War With China.” In a recent interview with Jordan Schneider I stated that I can no longer endorse the declaration in that title. While I discuss my change of heart on the podcast, I think it is best if I fully write out why my assessment has changed.

I wrote that article in the early Spring of 2018. Around 70% of its contents reflected research presented in Ian Easton’s book, The Chinese Invasion Threat, another 15% or so was drawn from a journal article published by Michael Beckely in the International Security Review, and the last 15% or so drew from my own analysis. A lot of the writing and research behind Easton’s book comes from 2015-2016. Things have gotten worse, not better, since then, and if Easton’s more recent op-ed pieces are a fair judge of his opinions, he has also grown more pessimistic in the years since.

My pessimism is grounded in the nine months I spent in Taiwan in 2019….

You might divide the challenges Taiwan faces into two parts: problems of military strategy and problems of training, culture and morale. These problems can be laid at the feet of the ROC military (especially the ROC Army), but behind them lies another, more serious layer of dysfunction. This layer is more serious because it infects not the military but the civilian leadership tasked with reforming the defense system. Responsibility for military strategy and morale ultimately lies with Taiwanese politicians, and to a lesser extent, the voters who bring them to office. But Taiwan is marred by a dysfunctional civil-military relationship, destructive partisan infighting, and a spirit of defeatism. These political dynamics make it difficult for Taiwan to make the reforms that might guarantee its safety and autonomy.

The problems with Taiwanese military strategy are well known. The essential issues are these: for the last decade, Taiwanese force procurement has been weighted towards expensive, high-end platforms that are high on prestige but of limited utility in an actual conflict with the PLA. 20 years ago doubling down on the high-tech edge made sense, as it was seen as a force multiplier that might counteract the weight of numbers China could throw into the fight. But the situation has changed: the PLA has parity on just about every system the Taiwanese can field (or buy from us in the future), and for some systems they simply outclass the Taiwanese altogether. The Chinese thus not only have more equipment, but better equipment on top of it.

“Why I Fear For Taiwan”, Tanner Greer, 11 September 2020

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Mailvox: Lockdown II Staff Shortage

An Italian explains that the vaxx restrictions are having a serious effect on Italy’s production capabilities despite the population’s general willingness to ignore the rules:

So I live to the North of Italy and went down Monday night to visit a factory to do some work with them. The hotel was in a small village and didn´t care about the Covid restrictions and told me to remove my mask when I went in. Due to this I ate an expensive meal at their restaurant even though I wasn´t hungry.

Get to the factory. Show my test etc. Temperature test etc… annoying but no big deal. Then we speak to the manager. On the 15th of October it will be law that you need to have the Vaxx or get tested by a doctor twice a week or you need to go on leave without pay. This factory, like most in Europe now is completely sold out until May next year and did not even stop production over summer. But, over 30% of the staff are unvaccinated and apparently refuse to get one.

They are literally going to be f—– unless they break the law and risk gigantic fines, or hire a doctor to “coof” test the 30% two days a week.

Something is going to give. And it’s not going to be the unvaccinated. We know of an entire hospital ward in our area that has shut down due to an inability to find enough vaccinated health care workers.

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