Vox Popoli

Despite launching attacks on each other in 2024, Iran and Pakistan have found common ground against Israel for a very good reason: Israel has attacked both countries since May 2025:

It was only early last year that Iran launched missile and drone strikes into Pakistan’s Balochistan region on 16 January, targeting extremist militant group Jaish al-Adl positions. Pakistan retaliated two days later on 18 January, conducting air and missile strikes into Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province in an operation dubbed Marg Bar Sarmachar. The tit-for-tat was remarkably friendly in the final analysis, and appears to have settled some critical border cooperation issues between the two states.

The fact that these former adversaries – who had just engaged in direct military exchanges – have now adopted “resolute solidarity” is nothing short of breathtaking.

Beijing’s embrace of Iran is grounded in energy security and strategic depth instead. Its ambitious, multi-trillion dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aimed at linking the Eurasian landmass hinges on the stability of Tehran and Islamabad, with the Gwadar and Chahbahar ports forming key arteries in China’s westward expansion. China also supplies J-10 fighter jets and HQ‑9 air‑defense systems to Pakistan, which played key roles in the extraordinary May 2025 skirmish between India and Pakistan – marking major testing ground for Chinese weapons. A parallel circumstance is present in Iran. China must acknowledge Iran because it is a crucial supporter of China’s energy needs and trade operations.

“The enemy of my friend is my enemy” may well define the new tripartite logic binding Iran, Pakistan, and China in resistance to Israeli and western designs.

Tel Aviv’s recent strikes on Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure mark a new phase in a decades-long western strategy aimed at dismantling Muslim powers resistant to colonial domination. Iraq, Syria, Libya – all were destabilized under similar pretexts. The 2001 plot, conceived by the US, its European allies, and Israel, has entered its second phase, targeting Iran initially and Pakistan subsequently. In a 2011 interview with Channel 2, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu laid bare the logic: Iran and Pakistan are the primary targets of this containment strategy, he stated blankly. “These radical regimes … pose a significant threat,” he said, stressing the need to prevent them from acquiring nuclear capability.

But recent Israeli provocations have instead triggered multipolar resistance to those plans. Speaking to The Cradle, Abdullah Khan of the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) reveals that Israeli drone operators had recently attempted to sabotage Pakistan’s nuclear facilities during the India–Pakistan crisis:

“Israeli drone operators were stationed in Indian operation rooms during the recent Pakistan–India conflict, trying to target Pakistan’s nuclear facilities. However, prompt action from Pakistan thwarted their efforts, preventing them from causing any damage to the nuclear assets of Pakistan.”

I don’t know if it is hubris or desperation, but at this point, it wouldn’t be a big surprise if Israel attacked China for one reason or another. China, after all, is the primary threat to Clown World.

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Simplicius explains why the world is increasingly supportive of Iran and disinclined to permit Israel anything that looks like a victory against Iran:

Israeli figures and media are already salivating at the prospect of what’s next after Iran, with various posts about Qatar, Turkey, and Pakistan all being lined up for disarmament and dismantling. Israel likewise continues begging Trump to ‘finish the job’ as if the plan all along was merely for Israel to “open up” the gates for US firepower.

And of course, that is the case—Israel never had the endurance to go twelve full rounds with Iran, and the hope was always that US would step in, which is why everything now depends on Trump and his tiny cohort of string-pullers.

But again, judging by Araghchi’s defiance, Iran does not seem in a particular hurry to genuflect to the Empire. This can only mean that Iran likes its chances, and may not have suffered as much attrition thus far as claimed.

It’s been interesting to observe that Iran has not availed itself of as much help from Russia as the Russians were willing to offer. This may have been nothing more than the usual susceptibility to Clown World’s temptations and promises, or it might be more indicative of an unwillingness to play the junior partner. It’s also possible that Iran prefers to rely upon China as its primary defense partner, especially in light of the new rail link shipping Iranian oil there.

Regardless, it’s now clear that as long as Team Netanyahu and the other fanatics are in charge of Israel, Israeli success will never lead to peace of any kind. And at this point, it would appear to be preemptive self-defense if Turkey and Pakistan were to enter the war against Israel, given the stated imperialist objectives of the current Israeli regime. And the decades-long accusations about Iran’s expansionary inclinations and general insanity are starting to look more and more like emotional projection by the Israelis.

If President Trump does attack Iran, it will be the biggest mistake of his life and he will lose the greater part of his support even before he loses the war. He will certainly lose mine. Remember, there are no guarantees that the US+Israel can defeat Iran alone. And it is all but certain that the two “greatest allies” cannot defeat a broad alliance of Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, Russia, and China.

There are far too many possibilities to make any substantive predictions or attempt to estimate probabilities, but I will say that if the US wages war on Iran and Iran’s prospective allies follow suit, the probabilities would favor an eventual military defeat, and among the possibilities would include a) the complete destruction of Israel and b) the collapse of the USA as a singular political entity.

If I were Trump, I would follow George Bush the Younger’s example, declare Mission Accomplished regardless of the realities of the situation, and allow the Israel-Iran conflict to gradually return to its previous low-simmering hostilities. The fact that no ground invasion of either side is currently possible renders that the optimal outcome under the current circumstances.

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The latest mainstream Narrative is that neither Israel nor the USA can destroy Iranian nuclear program without using nukes:

Donald Trump told defence officials it would only make sense for the U.S. to join Israel in striking Iran if its ‘bunker buster’ bombs are guaranteed to be able to destroy the key enrichment site at Fordow, according to people familiar with the discussions.

Officials were said to have been told that the U.S. would have to soften the ground with conventional bombs before dropping a tactical nuclear weapon from a B2 Bomber to completely destroy the site, believed to be some 90 metres underground.

But Trump is said to have ruled out nuking Iran, insiders told the Guardian. The possibility was said not to have been raised by defence secretary Pete Hegseth or chairman of the joint chiefs of staff General Dan Caine during recent meetings in the Situation Room.

Trump said late on Thursday that he will now decide in the next two weeks whether to join in military action against Iran, before British and European diplomats were to meet with Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Geneva on Friday.

So they just figured this out now? That seems… unlikely, especially since a number of people, including Col. Macgregor, have been saying that the Iranian program couldn’t be destroyed by conventional means since before the current conflict began.

And now we’re suddenly seeing reports of 30,000 Israelis fleeing to Cyprus and stringent new laws banning the filming of missile strikes. Which, nearly one week in, would appear to suggest that the decapitation strike was no more successful for Israel than it was for Russia back in 2022. But while the attritional math favored Russia in that conflict, it would appear to favor Iran in this one.

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Iran hit an Israeli hospital and in an astonishing demonstration of zero self-awareness, the Israelis are calling it a war crime.

Israel’s deputy foreign minister Sharren Haskel called Iran’s strike on an Israeli hospital on Thursday ‘deliberate’ and ‘criminal’, after the Islamic republic fired its latest salvo of missiles at the country.

Sharren Haskel wrote on X:

Iran just hit Soroka Hospital in Be’er Sheva with a ballistic missile. Not a military base. A hospital. This is the main medical center for Israel’s entire Negev region. Deliberate. Criminal. Civilian target. The world must speak out.

The accusation would perhaps be more meaningful if the IDF hadn’t been recently, and systematically, bombing hospitals and churches in Gaza.

Meanwhile, the Israelis have bombed the Arak nuclear facility in Iran. Which means, of course, that the Iranians will probably hit the Israeli equivalent, if they haven’t already, thereby risking a Chernobyl-style situation in both countries.

I’ve never understood the reliable failure of governments to grasp the basic concept of tit-for-tat, especially in wartime. And if the USA gets directly involved on Israel’s behalf, can we we really be surprised if Russia, or China, elects to do the same for their Iranian ally?

Sources are saying the British, with Zelensky, intend to use an old soviet missile to sink an American ship to blame Russia and instigate Article 5. I am hearing similar rumors about this in the Middle East by the Neocons to claim Iran attacked the US.

One guess as to which ship…

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