Vox Popoli

L’Affaire Belicheat may run deeper, according to PFT:

Goodell has ordered the team to turn over all videotapes, notes, and files dating back to 2000. They have to do this, Mortensen explained. If the materials indicate further rules violations, or if there is any fishy behavior in connection with the disclosure of information, there will be further sanctions.

My suspicion, as I suggested previously, is that Goodell is gauging public sentiment. Since the punishment has been widely perceived as having been unfairly light when compared to Wade Wilson’s five-game suspension, I think he’s looking for an excuse to drop another hammer on the New England coach.

A scientist blows the whistle on the poor reliability of peer-reviewed scientific research:

Most Science Studies Appear to Be Tainted By Sloppy Analysis

These flawed findings, for the most part, stem not from fraud or formal misconduct, but from more mundane misbehavior: miscalculation, poor study design or self-serving data analysis. “There is an increasing concern that in modern research, false findings may be the majority or even the vast majority of published research claims,” Dr. Ioannidis said. “A new claim about a research finding is more likely to be false than true.”

The hotter the field of research the more likely its published findings should be viewed skeptically, he determined….

In research published last month in the Journal of the American Medical Association, Dr. Ioannidis and his colleagues analyzed 432 published research claims concerning gender and genes. Upon closer scrutiny, almost none of them held up. Only one was replicated.

This doesn’t surprise me in the slightest, especially in light of what we’ve learned in the course of the ongoing evolution debate. (I should be posting my latest response to Scott this weekend.) Science is far less reliable than scientists would have us believe; this shouldn’t surprise anyone, least of all economists, given the financial incentive for scientific publication. It would certainly be interesting to see what Dr. Ioannidis would conclude were he to perform a similar study on the published research claims regarding evolution and genes, especially considering his conclusion that “Claimed Research Findings May Often Be Simply Accurate Measures of the Prevailing Bias“.

In any event, it does offer an explanation of why the scientists are having so much trouble understanding the significance of my “margin of error” point.

In anatomy class, you got a butt-minus!

This ad is hysterical. Of course, even funnier than the ad is the idea that public school teachers should command so much respect that they cannot be objectified in this way. But what schoolboy wouldn’t like a slender, sexy teacher?

Peter King argues that the NFL’s penalty should have included a suspension:

Goodell slapped Belichick hard, but not hard enough. A suspension should have accompanied the loss of the top draft choice.

I think the penalty is appropriate, but a bit soft in light of how Wade Wilson was suspended for five games for his much more defensible transgression. Of course, Goodell is primarily concerned with dissuading future behavior, and HGH is more likely to be an ongoing problem than illicit filming. Coaches aren’t going to be willing to risk losing a first-round draft pick in order to pick up defensive signals in the future.

I would have preferred to see Belicheck also suspended for four games and for the team’s fine to come off its salary cap as well. Of course, if more wrongdoing is uncovered, Goodell will have an excuse to jack up the penalty; I don’t think the initial response to the punishment expresses the sense of satisfaction that justice has been done for which he was surely hoping. If New England didn’t have two first-round picks, it might have been perceived as appropriate, but since they do, the whole thing feels somewhat tailored and superficial.

However, as PFT has already pointed out, this affair is likely to move the Competition Committee towards allowing radio helmets for defensive captains. I don’t like it, but I don’t have a huge problem with it either ; it’s clear that the league is increasingly moving towards on-field play calls anyhow, thanks to Peyton Manning.

In any event, the most painful punishment isn’t one that the NFL could dictate anyhow. It’s the fact that Belicheck will henceforth be known as “Belicheat”. That’s a pain that’s not only going to sting, but linger and fester, for Belicheat himself as well as the Patriots’ fan base.

I’m beginning to understand why so many people hate this man:

Whatever political party you belong to, whatever your position on Iraq, we should be able to agree that America has a vital interest in preventing chaos and providing hope in the Middle East.

I, for one, don’t agree at all. America doesn’t have a vital interest in providing hope ANYWHERE. And chaos in the Middle East actually works to our benefit. The first part of “divide and conquer” is “divide”. The neocon notion of “unify and convince” is hopeless.

The success of a free Iraq is critical to the security of the United States.

Thus speaks the man who is actively allowing tens of millions of Mexicans to invade the country. What a contemptible creature. Not even Clinton lied so blatantly.

Does anyone know how to get rid of tabs and line returns by using Find and Replace in OpenOffice Writer? It’s simple in Word, one simply uses ^t and ^p, but that doesn’t work in Writer.

DH wants to know what will happen when we go home:

I read your blog fairly regularly, and appreciate most of the points made there. I’m asking the following question in good faith, and not as a “gotcha”, because I don’t think this is a “gotcha” question at all, in fact.

[Background: I like Ron Paul a lot, but there is this issue nagging me]

From Ron Paul’s website: “We can continue to fund and fight no-win police actions around the globe, or we can refocus on securing America and bring the troops home.”

I read that as if he is elected president, he is likely to start an immediate withdrawal from Iraq, and as far as I could tell,
that is the position you advocate as well. My question is, what aftermath do you expect from such an action, and also how
do you plan to deal with that aftermath that you anticipate?

I expect the aftermath will be a bloody free-for-all as the Sunnis, backed by Saudi Arabia, fight the Iran-backed Shiites for control of the Iraqi oil that isn’t in the hands of the Kurds in the north. That should keep the jihad busy for at least 3-5 years; our only task will be to prevent the White House and the Congress from granting entry visas to Iraqis who want to escape the warfare and emigrate to the USA.

Iraqi civil war not only isn’t a problem, it is eminently desirable from a Western point of view. Stirring up civil wars outside its borders is one of the best ways for an empire to ensure that it is left alone. There’s no chance the “terrorists” are going to “follow us home” when they’ve got the chance to grab a good chunk of an oil rich country.

There are no good guys over there, that’s always been the fundamental flaw in the Bush strategery. In fact, the only significant problem is the possibility of the Kurds and the Turks getting into a shooting war once the Kurds stop pretending that they haven’t already established their own country in what used to be northern Iraq. But we will likely face that problem anyhow, whether we leave or not, and at least if we leave, that will reduce the likelihood of our troops getting involved in a military conflict against one of our allies.

We are going to be retreating from the Middle East sooner or later, the only question is if we’re going to do it before we lose thousands of our men, or after. One does not “support the troops” by putting them in an untenable strategic position that bears an increasing probability of getting a significant percentage of them killed. If you think the geopolitical ramifications of a retreat now are bad, consider how bad they will be if we cannot successfully extricate them.

Some atheists have argued that the USA’s high rate of infant mortality is a function of its propensity for religion. That’s untrue, it’s actually the result of the fact that vastly superior US natal care allows the USA to count babies born under 1,500 grams as live births, whereas most other nations don’t try to save them and don’t even report these high-risk babies in their infant mortality rates.

A reasonable test of these two hypotheses is to look at the next level up and examine childhood mortality rates; UNICEF released a report celebrating the fact that the number of deaths of children under 5 for every 1,000 live births has dropped to 72, down from 93 in 1990 and 184 in 1960. If the atheist view is correct and the inordinately Christian nation’s health care system is inferior, then the USA’s under-5 childhood mortality rate should be well over 72.

The actual rate is 7 per 1,000.

UPDATE – Jamsco asked about specific countries, especially the four atheist-run nations. Here’s the complete list, as for some selected examples:

07 – USA
05 – Germany
04 – Sweden
06 – UK
18 – Albania
19 – Vietnam
27 – China
55 – North Korea
79 – Laos

“So, how do you feel about those three tainted Super Bowls?” John McConnell asked the Sports Guy. I laughed, I cried, much better than Cats. The mere fact that Bill Simmons felt the need to rush to review the old game recaps in order to defend the Patriots’ Super Bowl-winning performances is amusing enough; my theory is that this is karmic retribution for a) Stealing KG, b) Stealing Randy Moss, c) Bill Belichek’s total lack of graciousness, and d) dumping Pat Patriot and their sweet red pants for the Flying Elvis and generic metallic look of today.

I think the NFL will crack down fairly hard on the Patriots; remember, this is a league that fines players for having the improper amount of white showing on their socks. A hefty fine, a four-game suspension for Belicheck and the loss of two draft picks, maybe a one and a three, seems about right to me.

The Sports Guy is right to note that for much of NFL Nation, the Colts and Patriots have become the Yankees and Red Sox, at least for the moment. People are starting to get sick of them and if it weren’t for Pittsburgh’s Super Bowl win in Rothlisberger’s rookiesecond year, they’d really be leaping at the chance to tear down the Patriots. Of course, it’s not Belicheck’s fault that so many coaches and general managers are totally clueless; I still can’t believe that Green Bay, Kansas City, Jacksonville, San Diego, Seattle and Minnesota didn’t go hard after Randy Moss this offseason, even though Seattle and San Diego are the only places that would have made sense from Moss’s perspective.

The fact that it was totally unnecessary just indicates what a perfect psychopath Belicheck is. You’ve got a much better team and coaching staff, you’ve reloaded at your weakest point, the other quarterback is hurt… so naturally what choice do you have but to cheat?

Is it really that big a deal? No, not really. Is Roger Goodell going to let it slide? No way. And should we enjoy tormenting everyone riding the Patriots bandwagon for the rest of the season? Oh yeah!