PZ runned away again

This time, it’s from Scienceblogs and National Geographic. But at least he’ll have that noted scientist, Ed Brayton, to keep him company.

The scienceblogs “science blogs” gotten somewhat better over the years with some silly blockheads leaving, but one of the worst, PZ Meyers, known for tiny little snippets of vitriol of pseudo-progressive populism that panders to the stupid “skeptics” crowd (the self-righteous feel superior about bashing morons with silly non-arguments type), seemed to never want to go away, giving science blogging a very bad reputation.

Now finally, they are at least splitting the vitriol from the science they at times still throw in here and there. As you can read on Facebook:

Freethoughtblogs.com will be THE central gathering place for atheists, humanists, skeptics and freethinkers in the blogosphere.

This is of course ridiculous since the main blogs are more about republican bashing than about anything else and there is very little reasonable skepticism ever on those blogs, but it is nevertheless good news for science blogging generally if those that give science blogging a bad name finally go and blog under a different category. “Freethought” (free of what actually – reason?) sounds as kooky as any crackpottery and is a much better heading than “science”.

Wait a minute, you mean to say that posting about Matt Damon and one’s dislike of libertarians isn’t science? Bloody butterfly collectors, I should have known better than to major in biology at a community college!

What about Ben Affleck? Ben Affleck and Republican-hating is still science, isn’t it? And Pope-bashing and Biblethumper-thrashing and stimulus-defending, how can that possibly be considered anything but science? Science is what scientists do!


The scales fall from the eyes

Mr. Farah now recognizes the reality of the bi-factional ruling party:

[W]e don’t have two competing parties in Washington. We have one-party governance, totally unresponsive to the will of the people and the rule of law. Republicans and Democrats represent two wings of the same party – both of which, at the end of the day, don’t really covet a return to constitutionally limited government.

Disaster?

Catastrophe?

Outrage?

Yes, but none of these words even comes close to adequately characterizing the betrayal perpetrated by the Republican establishment in Washington over the last few days.

The era of big government is back with a vengeance – and apparently here to stay.

There are no limits. There are no restraints. There is no accountability. There is no end to red ink as far as the eye can see.

As I have been telling you for ten years, voting Republican will NEVER be a panacea for the cornucopia of ills that have rendered America a revenant. There probably is no panacea, as it is hard to envision any workable solution that does not involve the division of the country into at least three parts. There simply aren’t the votes to “take back America” because too many nominal Americans dislike historical America, disvalue its freedoms and despise its Constitutional values.

And, thanks to the post-1965 influx of third-world immigrants, there will never be the votes. No Hispanic nation, no African nation, no Arabic nation, and very few European nations have EVER placed any value on “the rights of Englishmen” that were asserted in the Declaration of Independence. One need only read the aberrant parodies of the Declaration in the various UN and EU versions or national constitutions to see this is the case. Mere change of geographic location has not sufficed to significantly modify the core philosophies or ideologies, or in many cases, even the national identities of those immigrants.

It is time to pull out of the Republican Party altogether. This may mean that Obama will win a second term if he is not put out to pasture by the Democratic Party elders during the nomination process. This will almost surely mean that there will be no meaningful opposition in Washington to the bi-factional ruling party in 2012 and possibly 2014.

But the complete inability of the Republican Party to do anything of substance, to cut so much as a single dollar from the current amount of spending, means that the “realistic” forty-year strategy of “elect more conservative Republicans” has completely failed. It failed when Reagan was elected. It failed in 1994. It failed when Republicans held the White House and both houses of Congress. It has failed after the 2010 success of the Tea Party. Because it is clear that it is no longer even possible to prevent the bi-factional swan dive from the economic Tarpeian Rock, it is time to shift focus and to begin preparing for the post-mortem rebuilding.


Mailvox: A poem by Little Dick

Every now and then, people ask me why I bother engaging with evangelical atheists. I trust this email, quoted verbatim and in its entirety, should suffice to answer that question. It would appear that Little Dick Harris is attempting to convert the world to atheism with poetry. His magnum opus is entitled “Woo”.

Woo

The Christian’s Jehovah, the Almighty God,
is a capricious and cantankerous sod;
he’s a jealous, vain, and incompetent fraud,
with the morals of a sadistic tribal war lord.

For homophobia, misogyny, and genocide too,
that old Bible Bogey is the god for you.
He’s his own father, and his son, and a ghost too,
but there’s even more ridiculous woo.

Christians claim their god, in his Empyrean lair,
is omniscient, omnipotent, beneficent and fair;
but, with the problem of theodicy,
that dogma is Christian idiocy.

The Jew’s Yahweh, a wrathful old jerk,
set Jews strict rules on when to work,
how to dress, and what to sup or sip,
and giving baby boys the snip.

Myths of Bronze Age, goat-herding nomads,
metaphorically have them, by the gonads.
The Moslem’s Allah, a fierce great djinn,
demands under ‘Islam’, literally, ‘Submission’.

Apostasy is treated just like a crime;
they’ll threaten to kill you, to keep you in line,
and if you dare draw Mohammad in a comic cartoon,
there’ll be riots and killings from here to Khartoum.

Hindu, Sikh, Jain, and Buddhist,
Zoroastrian, Baha’i, Mormon, and Scientologist,
Confucianist, Shintoist, and Taoist too,
Spiritualist, Wiccan, and the New Ager into woo.

Yea, verily, those of each and every religion,
are mired in the miasma of superstition.
So, why should yours be the one true faith,
in the magic of a phantasmagorical wraith?

Belief, without evidence, is just plain crazy,
ignorant, stupid, or thoughtlessly lazy.
Life derives no purpose, at a theistic god’s direction;
evolution really happens, due to Natural Selection.

I have sent you this poem in the hope that you will read it and realize that some people find your religious beliefs to be unwarranted and absurd. When I was a small boy, still in short pants, I understood that there was no supporting evidence for religious beliefs, and therefore, such beliefs had no basis in fact. Later, I realized that religion was a tool for controlling people. Religion should be a private matter, because when it gains political power, as with any ideology, it becomes a tool for oppression. Please consider the benefits of rational thought over superstition and wishful thinking.

Oh, I read it twice, as a matter of fact. The first time in disbelief, the second time in awe. My first coherent thought was that the poem doesn’t scan well, commits six rhyming infelicities, reveals the usual ignorance of actual Christian theology, repeats numerous talking points that have been repeatedly shown to be false, and consists of crude doggerel that is never going to be mistaken for Dante or Yeats. My second thought was that we have a real candidate for the 2012 Richard Dawkins Award on our hands! Science can inspire art after all!

My third thought, of course, was that the poet is not one who would recognize a “rational thought” if he spent the next ten years having Aristotle, Aquinas, and Descartes read to him before bedtime. And then, only then, I began to laugh….

One of the many amusing things about this email is the way that Little Dick openly admits his lack of faith is quite literally childish. “When I was a small boy, still in short pants, I understood that there was no supporting evidence for religious beliefs, and therefore, such beliefs had no basis in fact.” I don’t know about you, but I tend to find this assertion to be just a little less than credible. What are the chances that, “as a small boy still in short pants”, Little Dick Harris had been able to peruse all of the available evidence that tended to support religious beliefs, whether one uses the term “evidence” properly or not?

Of course, his poem is a colorful piece of evidence demonstrating, that like every other evangelical atheist, Little Dick is still an emotional and intellectual child throwing a non-stop temper tantrum because the adults simply will not pretend to believe in his imaginary world.

UPDATE – But wait, there’s more! A follow-up email has arrived:

Vox, you ask, “What are the chances that, “as a small boy still in short pants”, Little Dick Harris had been able to peruse all of the available evidence that tended to support religious beliefs, whether one uses the term “evidence” properly or not?”

Zero, of course. What a stupid question. It isn’t necessary to read all of it, or, as I’ve subsequently discovered, any of it. Other than, that is, to find out that it’s empty, eristic hermeneutics, & sciolistic casuistry.

Little Dick noticed that the sort of miracles documented by Bede, clearly, were no longer taking place. Occasional claims for somewhat more mundane miracles, usually involving apparitions or healing, were obviously without good supporting evidence. As Hume demanded, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, & it was always lacking. By the age of twelve, it was plain to me that everything that I was aware of that happened in the world, & the universe, was potentially explicable in terms of natural processes.

Half a century later, I’ve never once doubted that, except for the realization that we may never be able to explain everything. Supernatural explanations add nothing of real value to our understanding. All that they can do is satisfy the wishful thinking of credulous individuals.

There you have it, from the mouth of the Poet Laureate of Rational Atheism. You don’t need to examine ANY evidence at all in order to reach a rational conclusion that satisfies the self-styled materialist. And thus the Worm Ourobos devours his own tail and we finally reach the glorious conclusion of rational materialist epistemology.


So doomed it isn’t funny

And you thought Greece, Spain, and Ireland were in desperate straits… consider poor Seattle:

“I think to make it the most competitive for our team, Tarvaris needs to be our starter right now. Tarvaris brings so much continuity to us.”
— Seattle coach Pete Carroll, after naming Tarvaris Jackson the team’s starting quarterback on Saturday.

Ye cats!


Overprepared

If I sounded a little less than fluid in the interview with CTV yesterday, the reason is, ironically enough, that the two Canadian producers prepared me extraordinarily well for it. I was very impressed with their thoroughness and the quality of their questions; I’ve been on a number of national news shows before and I’ve never seen anything like it. After a 30-minute pre-interview going over the debt ceiling debate and how it related to some of the concepts in RGD with one of the producers the day before, I produced two charts that we both thought would be useful as well as nicely visual, after which I was sent me the six questions I was to anticipate.

However, there was just a bit of a curve ball in the interview itself. Not only did they use a different picture than the one I provided, (understandably, since they must have wanted color), and they didn’t make use of the charts I made, (which was fine, I used them in today’s column), but some of the questions asked by the anchor were somewhat different than the ones I’d been provided. Her questions weren’t bad ones, by any means, but they were just far enough afield so I didn’t have the statistics on things like “historical tax revenue as a percentage of GDP” immediately to hand.

Note that I’m not complaining here, merely observing how the process was very different than my experience with American TV and radio.

Anyhow, I found that I was thinking “wait, what?” the entire time I was trying to answer the anchor’s questions. “Did I mishear that? Am I even answering the right question?” Anyhow, since I thought the producer’s questions were pretty good ones and I prepared for them, I thought I might as well post my notes for the interview here.

You recently wrote in an article that the issue is not so much the debt ceiling, but the debt itself. Can you explain exactly why?

The U.S. federal government has spent three years keeping the economy artificially propped up by substituting $4.1 trillion in new government debt for $3.6 trillion in household and financial sector debt-deleveraging.  Washington cannot keep playing ostrich without raising the debt ceiling.  The reason you’ve seen the number $2.4 trillion bandied about is because that buys them another six quarters at the current rate of $365 billion in new debt per quarter, enough to get them past the 2012 elections. But all this accomplishes is to delay the day of reckoning and increase the eventual cost.  Since the housing market and employment numbers have actually gotten worse during this period of extend-and-pretend, it should be clear that raising the debt ceiling isn’t even a potential fix for the problem.
 
In your book you look at the patterns that led to the Great Depression, and the Heisei boom In Japan that led to it’s famous ‘lost decade”- and you believe it will happen again, only this time it will be worse. What leads you to believe this?

First, the debt-to-GDP ratio is worse than it was in the Great Depression or Japan in 1999.  It was 2.6 in 1933, it peaked at 3.7 in 2008 and it is 3.5 now.  Second, in the 1930s, it was only the USA that attempted to fight the post-1929 economic contraction with Keynesian stimulus policies and only the USA suffered a Great Depression.  In England, the contraction stopped in 1932, France never saw double-digit unemployment, and the Japanese economy was actually enjoying significant growth.(1)  This time, Europe, China, and Japan all followed the US lead and applied their own stimulus plans in 2009, which we are already seeing is now in the process of backfiring on everyone.
 
In a chapter of your book entitled “No one knows anything” you explain that many of the governments calculations for GDP are misleading that they contain wide margins for error and cannot be trusted- why is that?
 
Because they’re verifiably wrong.  Look at the recent first quarter.  All three reports, from Advance to Final, had U.S. GDP growth at 1.8 to 1.9%.  Then, in the second quarter report, there is an inexplicable revision from 1.9% to 0.4%.  That’s a $225 billion mistake, which is almost five times more than the $60 billion growth now being reported.  These revisions are so out of control that if you bother to look back at the 2001 numbers, you’ll see that the 2001 recession has been revised out of existence.  It’s complete fiction.  On the employment side, the game is to not count people who don’t have jobs as unemployed.  That’s why they claim the unemployment rate is only 9.2% when it’s really closer to 20%.

You say that a boom fuelled by easy credit must be followed by a bust of equal size and duration. Instead, it has been FED policy to re-inflate bubbles and they collapse, which only creates bigger bubbles- You say we are currently in the biggest bubble yet- what could pop it?
 
What will pop it is a reduction in the rate of growth of government spending, an increase in interest rates, or a major sovereign investor’s refusal to continue buying Treasury bonds.  Any of the three will suffice to put the USA into a debt-deleveraging spiral.  The problem with depending upon debt-based economic growth is that eventually, you run out of people who are willing and able to borrow money. And that’s when the contraction starts.

There is a large backlog of home foreclosures in the United States- what would happen if that backlog were to suddenly be cleared? Are there other potential triggers out there?
 
Clearing the backlog would put the economy into the equivalent of heart failure because it would instantly kill a lot of banks.  The $600 billion decline in household sector debt is deceptively small because over 7.5% of all mortgages have been delinquent for more than 90 days.  The banks aren’t writing those bad loans off yet because to do so would bankrupt them.  Based on the FDIC statistics, I estimate that about $3 trillion of the $7.5 trillion in assets presently claimed by the big four, Bank of America, Citi, Wells Fargo, and JP Morgan Chase, are worthless.
 
What are the options for the global economy- what are the best and worst case scenarios?
 
Pay a high price now, or pay a higher price later.  Deflation, default, and economic contraction aren’t fun, but they are perfectly survivable.  The best case scenario is we go through the global equivalent of the Great Depression, what I’ve called Great Depression 2.0.  It will be very difficult for a lot of people, but the basic governmental structures will survive and there won’t be cannibalism in the streets or anything like that.  The worst case is that the politicians keep kicking the can down the road until the entire global financial system finally collapses overnight.  In that case, we’re probably going to see wars, civil wars, and fundamental change of the sort most of us find impossible to imagine.

(1)thanks to the invasion of Manchuria, of course, but the GDP statistics are what they are.


“When I’m wrong it proves I’m right”

Those who make ridiculous assertions that amount to this line of logic should not find it terribly hard to understand why those of us who actually possess working memories tend to be just a little bit skeptical about the reliability of whatever their current positions happen to be. I know you are probably as shocked as I am that the Fowl Atheist is claiming that the “reevaluation” of Archaeopteryx, the fossil that has been hailed as literally rock-solid proof of evolution since I was being subjected to evolutionary propaganda back in elementary school, doesn’t mean that the legitimacy of either archeological science or TE(p)NSBMGDaGF should be called into question:

We all knew this was coming. Xiaotingia, the newly described feathered dinosaur, suggests a reevaluation of the taxonomic status of Archaeopteryx, so the creationists are stumbling all over each other to crow about the failure of science…which doesn’t make any sense, since reconsidering hypotheses in the light of new evidence is exactly what science is supposed to do.

That’s an interesting claim. Precisely when has any evolutionist reconsidered either a) the basic hypothesis that species evolve into different species through natural selection or b) the corollary and requisite hypothesis that life evolved from non-life, as a result of the falsity of one, ten, or even a hundred predictions that relied upon one or both of them? If it weren’t for DNA, which was not discovered or developed with any assistance from evolutionary theory, evolutionary biology would already be openly recognized by every intelligent, rational, science-literate individual as being about as useful as phrenology and astrology.

Darwinian biologists are very much like Keynesian economists. It doesn’t matter how many times their predictions fail. It doesn’t matter how often their models are proven to be wildly wrong. It doesn’t matter how many times they have been wrong in the past even with the benefit of margins of error consisting of millions of years. They continue to insist that their position is based on evidence even when the evidence demonstrates precisely the opposite of what they have been claiming.

An evolutionist is one who is continually convinced, despite past experience, that adding just one more series of magic evolutionary epicycles will somehow make the whole system finally begin to function in a coherent and reliably predictive manner.

In other, somewhat tangential news, we have discovered that the New Atheist Circle Jerk continues unabated. Seriously, you can’t even parody these charlatans without them one-upping you.

The 2011 Richard Dawkins Award goes to…
Category: Godlessness

Who else but Christopher Hitchens?

What a beautiful, beautiful thing. If I had dared to invent the idea, no one would have believed me. Out of nearly seven billion people on the planet, Richard Dawkins chose to give out his eponymous award to the third-most amusing recipient. Second, you understand, would have been awarding it to himself. But to maximize our collective utility on the happiness-suffering metric, though, he would have had to present the award to Rebecca Watson.


WND column

Bailing Out Obama

“At the White House and in talks in congressional offices and corridors, most of the attention was focused on finding a way to define the precise conditions under which the president could get a second increase in the debt limit that would be needed early in 2012 under both Republican and Democratic proposals.”
– “Amid New Talks, Some Optimism on Debt Crisis,” The New York Times, July 30, 2011

It’s not hard to understand why the leaders of both political parties are vehemently opposed to the possibility of U.S. default. But as many commentators, including myself, have pointed out for weeks, a failure to raise the debt ceiling has absolutely nothing to do with the possibility of a sovereign U.S. default! In fact, raising the debt ceiling will make a default much more likely in the future. So why are the politicians, particularly Barack Obama, so desperate to see some sort of deal struck that will permit the raising of the $14.3 trillion federal debt ceiling?

NB – This column was written prior to the announcement of the “compromise” plan, which Karl Denninger summarized as below. Nothing in it changes anything substantive regarding the column.

1. Lie once again about “cutting spending.” It does no such thing. It increases spending – every year. Bogus and outright-fraudulent “baseline budgeting” means that if they intended to boost spending $300 billion but only increase it $200, that’s a $100 billion “cut.” If you ran your household like this you’d be broke in a week. For the US, it will take a bit longer.

2. No tax increases. That’s nice, but let’s not forget that while the Democrats scream about the “Bush Tax Cuts” the FICA tax cut was theirs. Obama signed it. You cannot keep reducing income and increasing spending forever.

3. The cuts, fraudulent though they are, aren’t even real anyway – and not binding either. There’s nothing before 2013, which means a downgrade is almost certain. Further, raising the debt ceiling now for the whole among but allegedly finding the “cuts” over 10 years is an outright fraud by a ratio of 10:1.

4. A 2013 timeline for actual changes means nothing, since the next Congress is not bound by what this one does. Period.

5. Sequesterization didn’t work in 1997. It won’t work in 2011 either.

6. We failed to get to $4 trillion. That’s what S&P said they needed, and they said they needed to see that within the next three years. Now we find out if S&P has any balls.

NRO reports: “According to sources, Boehner said the deal was “the best that we could get.”” And that is perhaps the most shameful thing about this whole bipartisan charade. The scriptwriters couldn’t even bother to write new dialogue for Republicans Cave on the Budget XXXI.


Vibrancy in the park

Several shots rang out from a handgun during a large fight near an outdoor concert venue in Cleveland, leaving four people wounded after a “Unity in the Park” festival featuring funk music artist George Clinton, police said Sunday.

I always enjoy the way that the mainstream media is now very careful to scrub every last bit of racial information from a news story, unless the point is to make a point about how wonderful diversity is.


The debt ceiling dance

Unsurprisingly, it has all turned out to be fake. The choice being presented for public consumption is one between fake spending cuts (Republican) versus non-existent spending cuts (Democrat). Of course, the real issue is the need to keep spending in order to continue the appearance of economic stagnation. Ask yourself this question. What is the magic in the $2.4 trillion addition to the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling?

Answer: $365 billion. That is the average increase in federal debt per quarter since the middle of 2008. $2.4 trillion is six quarters worth of that… which is sufficient to see the current set of politicians safely past the 2012 elections. Assuming that the private sector continues its debt-deleveraging, this means that by the end of 2012, government will account for 27.8% of all debt, the federal government will account for 23.2% of it (up from 10.3% in Q2-2008), households will be at 22.4% (down from 28%) and the financial sector at 24.4% (down from 31.5%).

Speaking of the debt limit, if you happen to be Canadian, I’ve been asked to appear on their 24-hour news channel, CTV, to discuss it. If you are not Canadian, but happen to be so inclined, you can watch the clip here.


It’s the debt, not the ceiling

Moody’s tries to spell it out slowly for the Washington politicians:

The “limited magnitude” of both debt plans put forward by congressional leaders would not put the nation’s AAA credit rating back on solid footing, Moody’s Investors Service announced Friday. “Reductions of the magnitude now being proposed, if adopted, would likely lead Moody’s to adopt a negative outlook on the AAA rating,” the credit rating agency said in a new report. “The chances of a significant improvement in the long-term credit profile of the government coming from deficit reductions of the magnitude proposed in either plan are not high.”

It added that “prolonged debt ceiling deliberations” have increased the odds of a downgrade, but that the firm is still confident policymakers will avoid a default.

“It remains our expectation that the government will continue with timely debt service,” the firm said.
It also clarified that as far as it is concerned, the nation will only default if it misses an interest or principal payment on U.S. debt, not if it misses payments on other obligations like federal employee salaries or Social Security benefits.

Translation: The Republicans that sold out and put their careers at severe risk of Tea Party challenges in the primaries not only accomplished nothing, but never could have accomplished anything meaningful. If Boehner and Cantor were competent, they would have run their multiplicity of plans past the ratings agency, not just the optimistic and reliably inaccurate Congressional Budget Office.

And as I and many other financially literate economics observers have pointed out, a failure to raise the debt ceiling has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with default, despite the ignorant bleatings of “economists” like Megan McCardle. The mainstream commentators have it backwards again, as it is raising the debt ceiling that makes the prospect of sovereign default more likely, not leaving it in place.