An alternative market

Since the estimable editors at Black Gate have managed to attract such a crowd of high-quality submissions that the soonest a newly submitted story can reasonably expect to be published is sometime around Issue 47 in the year 2026, I thought it might be of interest to the various writers who follow this blog to know about an alternative that pays less and is presently less prestigious, but has a more pressing need for publishable material.

Read the rest at the Black Gate.


NFL Week 2

This is your weekly open NFL thread. After listening to Kurt Warner opine on the NFL Network, I am convinced that there is still some hope for Donovan McNabb, his proclivity for throwing at the receivers’ shins notwithstanding. I am concerned, however, that the real problem may be the offensive coordinator. Warner said that after reviewing every single passing play, he concluded that there were only three (3!) called passing plays of more than 10 yards. One game in, the 2011 Vikings offense is making Childress’s infamous Kick Ass offense look like 1998’s Three Deep.

I also thought it was interesting that part of Cam Newton’s historic performance was credited to the brief window in the lockout when coaches were permitted to contact players. Apparently, Carolina got him a playbook and Newton used the summer to get the terminology and a large percentage of the plays down. This tends to bode very well for Newton and indicates that he is no Michael Vick/Aaron Brooks who is content to skate on talent, but is rather more in the vein of a Tavaris Jackson, albeit considerably more talent.

Don’t get me wrong, Seattle fans, the Experiment will never be more than NFL backup material. But he is a good guy who works extremely hard. If Newton combines Jackson’s work ethic with Vick’s talent, he could become the first genuine elite running quarterback since Daunte Culpepper’s glory days.


Umberto Eco on canine intelligence

But do dogs speak or not?

A lady, who went mushroom-gathering with a friend, was stung by a wasp and went into anaphylactic shock. She stopped breathing and her friend telephoned the paramedics, but the arrival of the paramedics was delayed because the two women were in a very thick forest and it was hard to find them. However, Queen, the friend’s dog, (but I imagine it must have been a female dog)1, instead of staying there licking the hand of the stricken as instinct would have commanded, ran through the forest, found the paramedics, and guided them to the right place.

As Danilo Mainardi commented in the Corriere Della Sera last August 21st, we are not seeing a simple instinctive behavior here, we are seeing an “intelligent” behavior in which the dog does not respond to the command of the instinct, (to stay near the injured), but elaborates “a complex plan which also comprehends the involvement of other individuals”.

The case, and the comments by Mainardi, recall to mind the vast literature of antiquity on the capacity for reason on the part of dogs. One of the texts that had great influence in the past is the Naturalis Historia of Pliny the Elder, who is occupied with the voices of fishes and birds, but also delved amply into canine intelligence; he cites a dog that recognized in the crowd the killer of his master, and by snapping and snarling at him, forced him to confess his crime. He also relates the story of the dog of a man condemned to death that howled mournfully over him, and when a spectator gave the dog some food, tried to put it in the mouth of the dead man. When the body was finally thrown in the Tiber, the dog jumped in and swam in an attempt to rescue its master.

But the more interesting philosophical discussion was already developed in three centuries of debate between Stoics, Academics, and Epicureans. Within the circuit of the Stoic discussions appears an argument attributed to Chrysippus of Soli, that was actually reprised and popularized about five centuries later by Sextus Empiricus. Sextus judged that the dog had the capacity for logical reason, showing how a dog that arrived at an intersection of three paths, and recognized by the odor that the prey had not taken two of the paths, immediately ran down the third without needing to sniff it. In effect, the dog had shown this mode of reason: “The prey has taken this way or that, or the other, now it is not this way or that, and therefore it is the other.” That would be an example of a reasoning called the Fifth Indemonstrable.

Sextus further recorded that a dog possessed a “logos” because it knew to remove the slivers and clean the paws, hold the injured limb immobile, and distinguish the herbs that possessed the ability to ease its suffering. As to an animal language, it is true that we don’t comprehend the voices of the animals, but we also don’t comprehend the voices of the barbarians even though we know they speak. And dogs certainly emit diverse vocalizations in diverse situations.

We can continue by citing the De Sollertia Animalium of Plutarch, where he said that while it is certain the rationality of animals is imperfect with respect to that of Man, this difference also applies between human beings. In another dialogue, Bruta Animalia Ratione Uti, to one who forcefully objected to attributing reason to beings that possessed no innate notion of the divine, Plutarch responded by recalling that there are also atheists among human beings.

In the On the Nature of the Animals of Claudio Eliano, other arguments are already seen; he cites dogs that are in love with human beings. In the De Abstinentia of Porfirio, the arguments in favor of the intelligence of animals serve to sustain a vegetarian thesis. All of these themes have been variously reprised in the modern era and until our days.

But let us stop here: if we cannot succeed in successfully defining the canine intelligence, we must be more sensible about this mystery. If it isn’t enough to cause us to become vegetarians, at least the less intelligent dog owners among us will not abandon their dogs on the highway.

As always with these translations, please recall that I am sub-fluent in Italian, particularly Eco’s notoriously complex brand of it. As an aside, I find it interesting to contemplate how reason has been turned on its head since Plutarch’s day. From assuming that an innate sense of the divine is required for a being to possess reason, there are now individuals such as Sam Harris who assume that an innate sense of the divine somehow equates to evidence of a lack of reason. I trust that by the time it ends, the ongoing Memorial Debate will suffice to demonstrate the false nature of the Harrisian assumption.

As for the matter of canine intelligence, having owned a Viszla for 15 years, I can testify that while dogs do possess the capacity for reason, they don’t have a lot of it. The larger part of it appears to go towards rationalizing why they should be able to steal food from places they know perfectly well is not permitted. But despite these limitations, it goes without saying that anyone who intentionally abandons a dog should be excommunicated, flayed, rolled in salt, and burned.

If human affections were only half as reliable as the canine, the world would be a much better place.

(1) this clarification stems from the use of grammatical gender in Italian. “Il cane” is the generic term and suggests “the male dog”, but Eco imagines that the name Queen tends to indicate “la cagna”, or “the bitch”.


On the radio

In case you’re interested, I’m being interviewed on the Preparedness Radio Network at noon EST for an hour. They appear to have a listen live link here.

An interesting post-interview note from the host: “We’re all about the downloads here after the live shows. Already they have downloaded this broadcast nearly 1,000 times—that has never happened immediately after a show before.”


Here it comes

You may recall that as I’ve been tracking the debt sectors over the last few years, I have also been repeatedly warning that the federal government would not be able to indefinitely substitute public debt for the contraction in private debt. The gamble that the federal government could fill in the credit gap until private credit began to grow again was a high-risk one that was always likely to fail. The latest Z1 figures, reported yesterday, show that the gamble appears to be in the process of failing; consider the comparison of the growth rates of the largest debt sector, the financial, with the federal sector over the last six quarters:

Federal
+6.12% +4.16% +4.52% +4.08% +2.77% +0.96%

Financial
-4.40% -1.57% -1.99% -1.38% -0.93% -2.08%

This shows that the $4.5 trillion increase in federal debt is now slowing down while the $3.3 trillion decrease in financial debt is beginning to pick up speed again, precisely as I have been predicting. The state and local governments are shedding debt for the first time as well, being down -0.81% and -0.78% in the first two quarters of 2011. The household sector is officially down only $610 billion (4.4%) from the peak, but this is not an accurate number due to the gap between formal defaults and the very large number of informal defaults that have not yet been registered on the books of the mortgage banks.

These unreported defaults are the main reason most of the big banks stocks are trading at half their reported asset values. Everyone knows that somewhere between 35% and 60% of those paper assets no longer have any value. The net is that while total credit market debt outstanding is only down $280 billion from the Q1-2009 peak, the composition of that debt continues to change and there is a credit gap of $16.5 trillion from where the previous 2% average quarterly credit growth would have indicated.

When all these factors are taken together, it amounts to a strong indication are that the economy and the financial system are rapidly approaching another crash in the third and fourth quarters of 2011. There are, of course, other reasons to expect one, such as Greek two-year bonds being at 66.4% compared to 9.5% one year ago. But the Z1 report alone is sufficient to show that something wicked this way comes.


Putting science back into political science

Now here is a proposal for a scientific approach to politics I would absolutely get behind the idea of bringing back the states as the laboratories of democracy:

What do politicians do when they think they have a great idea? They just go and implement it. It’s like someone thinking he’s got a cure for cancer and immediately injecting it into everyone he can. That’s a madman, not a scientist. You always have to at least try out your idea on monkeys to make sure it doesn’t kill them.

Were farm subsidies first tried on monkeys? Social Security? Bank bailouts? No, the unscientific politicians went straight to trying all their ideas on humans, and now we have a bunch of bankrupt people instead of harmless bankrupt monkeys.

But the problem with testing political ideas on monkeys is that forcing them to go billions into debt would violate animal-cruelty laws. The only ones we’re allowed to do that to are people.

So we have to just observe the effects of the politicians’ policies — but that’s not so simple. Many say the Obama stimulus was a failure; others say we’d be even worse off without it. With the data we have, we can’t prove who’s right.

In science, when testing things on people, you always use a control group. If you have a drug you think will cut cholesterol, you give it to one set of test subjects. If everyone in the group that took the drug turns purple and starts choking but the control group is fine, we scientifically conclude there’s a problem with the drug. We have an economy that’s turning purple and choking. Did the stimulus cause that? If we had a control group that looked fine, we’d know.

So what we need to do is isolate part of the country to be the control group. They’ll be free from new taxes, won’t take part in government programs and regulations and can have all the guns they want. In the rest of America, politicians can go crazy with every Keynesian idea, ban trans fats and salt and just generally control everything. Then we can compare the results of the two groups and finally have a scientific answer on what works.

The only serious problem with the proposal is that everyone with half a brain or more would want to live in the unfortunately named control group. And even the liberals would start to figure it out eventually, as can be seen by their ongoing migration from the liberal states they’ve ruined to more conservative states.

Here’s the ironic thing. Due to their tendency towards the political left and their increasing dependence upon government spending, some of the biggest opponents of a scientific approach to politics would probably be scientists and the science lobby.

But it would certainly be amusing to see all the leftists in the experimental groups arguing that the policy would have worked if only it hadn’t relied on a population full of morons like themselves.

PS – For those who are following the Memorial Debate, I have just sent off my Round Two post to Dominic. So, we’re on schedule.


Mailvox: scientists wanted

A documentary filmmaker is looking for scientists and mathematicians willing to go on camera to discuss TE(p)NSBMGDaGF:

I am a filmmaker currently working on an untitled documentary project with the purpose of revealing the ideological motives of those who act as the gatekeepers for Darwinism. While on the surface this may sound a bit like the 2008 documentary “Expelled”, my proposed film is not about Intelligent Design whatsoever, it is simply an examination of the science of TE(p)NSBMGDaGF, as you so affectionally refer to it, and the ideology of those determined to protect it from criticism and attempt to strong arm others who practice any genuine scientific inquiry to challenge it.

I recently discovered your blog during my research, and though I am an agnostic, I have found your material on this subject very compelling. My funding is in place, and most of my preliminary research has been completed, but I am running into a brick wall when it comes to getting those in the scientific community (outside of ID proponents) to point me in the right direction on the challenges to Darwinism from evo-devo, genetics, and mathematics, and to agree to be interviewed for the project. Though I have simply presented my film as an “evidentiary exploration of Darwinian evolution”, most biologists seem to have learned that it is not wise to provide potential ammunition for a documentary film. Either out of fear of retribution or a sense of their authority being challenged, I have found few who are willing to assist me in my research, or to go on record.

This is why I am contacting you. From the comments on your posts, I have noticed that quite a few scientists and engineers read and comment on your blog, and I was hoping perhaps they might give me some assistance regarding fundamental objections to Darwinian theory from other schools of scientific inquiry, and suggestions on those in the scientific community I should be looking to engage with. I appreciate any assistance you and your “ilk” would be willing to give me on this topic.

I have the impression this guy is looking for credentials, so if you happen to be a sufficiently credentialed scientist or mathematician who is interested in being interviewed about what is happening in the field of evolutionary biology, shoot me an email with your credentials and I will pass them along to the filmmaker.

And before anyone leaps to the wrong assumption, no, I’m not involved in this, and no, I won’t be appearing in it. But it is interesting to see that scientists are either afraid to speak publicly concerning their doubts about TENS or are unwilling to defend the orthodox dogma. No wonder the Darwinists are losing the media war. They’re afraid to even show up for the fight and have resorted to ideological thuggery inside their increasingly irrelevant secular monasteries. Thomas Huxley must be rolling over in his grave at the sight of Darwin’s Yellow-bellied Chickens.



The consensus crumbles

It’s going to be increasingly difficult for the AGW/CC cultists to claim they have a scientific consensus when Nobel Prize-winning physicists are resigning from scientific societies over the grotesquely unscientific AGW/CC propaganda:

Dr. Ivar Giaever, a former professor with Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and the 1973 winner of the Nobel Prize in physics, abruptly announced his resignation Tuesday, Sept. 13, from the premier physics society in disgust over its officially stated policy that “global warming is occurring.”

The official position of the American Physical Society (APS) supports the theory that man’s actions have inexorably led to the warming of the planet, through increased emissions of carbon dioxide. Giaever does not agree — and put it bluntly and succinctly in the subject line of his email, reprinted at Climate Depot, a website devoted to debunking the theory of man-made climate change.

“I resign from APS,” Giaever wrote.

Giaever was cooled to the statement on warming theory by a line claiming that “the evidence is incontrovertible.”

“In the APS it is ok to discuss whether the mass of the proton changes over time and how a multi-universe behaves, but the evidence of global warming is incontrovertible?” he wrote in an email to Kate Kirby, executive officer of the physics society. “The claim … is that the temperature has changed from ~288.0 to ~288.8 degree Kelvin in about 150 years, which (if true) means to me is that the temperature has been amazingly stable, and both human health and happiness have definitely improved in this ‘warming’ period,” his email message said.

The facts are that the Earth was warmer in the past than it is now, the AGW/CC predictive models have all repeatedly failed, and the entire AGW/CC scheme amounts to little more than grant-seeking scientists attempting to please globalist politicians seeking to justify world government with fake science.


Homecare or die

At this point, I won’t be surprised to see it reported soon that daycare leads to sterility, Satanism, suicide, and supporting the Green Bay Packers:

n an article for The Biologist journal, Dr Sigman cites studies which show higher levels of the stress hormone cortisol in children who go to day care. The increase only appears up until the age of three or so, but Dr Sigman says it is still important, as the brain develops rapidly during these years. High levels of cortisol are linked to lower resistance to infection in the short-term and heart disease in the long-term.

Of course, no sooner will the reports be published than the supporters of these kiddy concentration camps will argue that while there is a broad consensus that day-care influences the suicide rate in the short term, there is no evidence that this has long-term detrimental consequences.

Throw in the fact that the median male worker now makes less than he did in 1968, and a very solid case can be made that mothers with young children not only should not work, they should probably be legally barred from working if they are married or cohabitating.