A Civilizational Collapse Model

There is an interesting link suggested between the observed AI model collapse and the apparent link between urban society and the collapse of human fertility.

The way neural networks function is that they examine real-world data and then create an average of that data to output. The AI output data resembles real-world data (image generation is an excellent example), but valuable minority data is lost. If model 1 trains on 60% black cats and 40% orange cats, then the output for “cat” is likely to yield closer to 75% black cats and 25% orange cats. If model 2 trains on the output of model 1, and model 3 trains on the output of model 2… then by the time you get to the 5th iteration, there are no more orange cats… and the cats themselves quickly become malformed Chronenburg monstrosities.

Nature published the original associated article in 2024, and follow-up studies have isolated similar issues. Model collapse appears to be a present danger in data sets saturated with AI-generated content4. Training on AI-generated data causes models to hallucinate, become delusional, and deviate from reality to the point where they’re no longer useful: i.e., Model Collapse…

The proposed thesis is that neural-network systems, which include AI models, human minds, larger human cultures, and our individual furry little friends, all train on available data. When a child stubs his wee little toe on an errant stone and starts screaming as if he’d caught himself on fire, that’s data he just received and which will be added to his model of reality. The same goes for climbing a tree, playing a video game, watching a YouTube video, sitting in a chair, eating that yucky green salad, etc. The child’s mind (or rather, subsections of his brain) are neural networks that behave similarly to AI neural networks.

The citation is to an article discussing how AI systems are NOT general purpose, and how they more closely resemble individual regions of a brain, not a brain.

People use new data as training data to model the outside world, particularly when we are children. In the same way that AI models become delusional and hallucinate when too much AI-generated data is in the training dataset, humans also become delusional when too much human-generated data is in their training dataset.

This is why milennial midwits can’t understand reality unless you figure out a way to reference Harry Potter when trying to make a point.

What qualifies as “intake data” for humans is nebulous and consists of basically everything. Thus, analyzing the human experience from an external perspective is difficult. However, we can make some broad-stroke statements about human information intake. When a person watches the Olympics, they’re seeing real people interacting with real-world physics. When a person watches a cartoon, they’re seeing artificial people interacting with unrealistic and inaccurate physics. When a human climbs a tree, they’re absorbing real information about gravity, human fragility, and physical strength. When a human plays a high-realism video game, they’re absorbing information artificially produced by other humans to simulate some aspects of the real physical world. When a human watches a cute anime girl driving tanks around, that human is absorbing wholly artificial information created by other humans.

If there is any truth to the hypothesis, this will have profound implications for what passes for human progress as well as the very concept of modernism. Because it’s already entirely clear that Clown World is collapsing and neither modernism nor postmodernism have anything viable to offer humanity a rational path forward.

DISCUSS ON SG

Castalia Thanksgiving Sale 2025

Today we’re pleased to announce the start of the annual Thanksgiving sale. Please note that no subscriber discounts are necessary or applicable to books that are on sale; please also note that there are a few books on sale that were previously listed as out of stock. This is because it is always necessary to retain a few books in case of flawed editions or shipment errors, but after a year or so of no problems being reported, we no longer need to keep them in the warehouse.

The quantities are what they are. I will try to keep them updated as the sale goes on, but the vagaries of the system are imprecise. We’re offering the biggest discounts on the books taking up the most space in the warehouse.

If you’re having any trouble with your credit card at the Arkhaven store, try NDM Express as the books are also on offer there at the same price.

LIBRARIA CASTALIA

  • Fooled By Randomness 149.99
  • Black Swan 149.99
  • Skin in the Game 149.99
  • Antifragile 149.99
  • Promethean 149.99
  • The Lawdog Files 149.99
  • The Missionaries 2nd Edition 149.99
  • The Jungle Books 149.99
  • Politics 199.99
  • Ethics 199.99
  • Summa Elvetica 199.99
  • A Throne of Bones I 199.99
  • A Throne of Bones II 199.99
  • A Sea Of Skulls I 199.99
  • A Sea Of Skulls II 199.99
  • Plutarch 1 199.99
  • Plutarch 2 199.99
  • Discourses on Livy 199.99
  • Awake In The Night Land 299.99
  • Divine Comedy 299.99

CASTALIA LIBRARY

  • Fooled By Randomness 59.99
  • Black Swan 59.99
  • Skin in the Game 59.99
  • Antifragile 59.99
  • Promethean Library 59.99
  • The Lawdog Files 59.99
  • The Missionaries 2nd Edition 69.99
  • War & Peace Vol 1 69.99
  • War & Peace Vol 2 69.99
  • The Jungle Books 69.99
  • A Throne of Bones 1 99.99
  • A Throne of Bones 2 99.99
  • A Sea Of Skulls 1 99.99
  • A Sea Of Skulls 2 99.99

More to come…

DISCUSS ON SG

The Return of Christian Nationalism

Andrew Torba has a new site up, and I have to say, he appears to have refined his thinking on the subject in a correct and positive manner as opposed to the civic nationalism that had crept into his book on the subject.

THE CHRISTIAN IDENTITY OF AMERICA

Christian Nationalism is not a new invention; it is a return to our true heritage. For centuries, America was explicitly Christian in law, custom, and identity.

WHY WE REJECT THE TERM “JUDEO-CHRISTIAN”

The term “Judeo-Christian” is a modern political invention, not a biblical one. It functions as a vague civil-religious umbrella that papers over real theological differences.

Christianity is not an extension of modern Judaism; it is the fulfillment of the Law and the Prophets through Jesus Christ.

The New Testament repeatedly teaches that the Church—not unbelieving Israel—is the continuation of God’s covenant people. Christian Nationalism is therefore Christian, not interfaith. We affirm the Lordship of Jesus Christ, the authority of the New Testament, and the mission of discipling the nations.

He’s absolutely correct. The differences are not just real and theological, they are fundamental and represent polar opposites. The term itself is not merely a contradiction, it is an oxymoron. While the values of the European Union are, without question, “talmudic” as stated by the EU’s High Priestess, Ursula van der Leyen, the values of Western civilization, the European nations, and America are 100 percent opposed to that satanic globalist babelism, the evil fruits of which are conclusively in evidence today.

The great Swiss Christian nationalist Gonzague de Reynold addressed this very contradiction between the Satanic elevation of the State over Man and nation on the one hand and the Christian elevation of Man’s soul over the State in 1938:

The notion of the common good has its source in the Christian conception of Man, and here is how it can be defined: the ensemble of natural and human conditions that permit man to live according to the needs of the individual, but according to the demands of the person, in order to accomplish his destiny which is to cross earthly life to assimilate himself to God. Thus, the common good must have ceaselessly before its eyes this last end of our human associations, this final and total perfection of our human being.

All earthly things are below the human soul. But it is certain that the human soul, as long as it remains incarnate, needs these things, and that the vital impulse takes in these things its point of departure. They must therefore be ordered to the human soul, to the person.

And this order is called civilization.

DISCUSS ON SG

The Dark Side of Star Trek

Star Trek was always problematic, and not just because of Gene Roddenberry’s alarming enthusiasm for young girls’ underwear, as the Dark Herald observes its intellectual roots at Arkhaven.

A bunch of scientists, engineers and assorted smartasses got together and create a new organization dedicated to conquering the world and running it with enlightened scientific centrally planned totality. No politics needed because there will be no dissent at all — after all, how can you dissent from the perfection of science?

This is called a “Technocracy.”

In Wells’ horrible dream of the future this organization was called the Modern State Movement, (The movie version was called Wings Over the World). From their base in Basra, the self-proclaimed Air Dictatorship begins a campaign to bring order to the world by force, suppressing warlike “backward” national regimes and establishing a unified, rational, scientific world order. And they were dressed like BUF Black Shirts with breast plates.

They impose global peace, eliminate national sovereignty, abolish all traditional political systems, and construct a universal education program designed to create scientifically minded citizens, (yeah nothing bad can come from that).

All religion is suppressed… Of course

Family structures are destroyed — this is the big one for all of the totalitarian movements. The state is what raises the kids, not their parents. The state is what teaches children their governing values, not their families. Marriage is a very temporary and ephemeral matter, both sides are urged to move on from it as quickly as possible. And depending on how honest the technocrats are being about it — incest is to be encouraged.

Material abundance returns through centralized planning and technological management. The world eventually becomes a world state — stable, secular, regimented, paternalistic, eternal and it sounds like my idea of Hell on Earth. This is a world governed by Madelaine L’Engle’s IT.

From Things to Come, you can trace a straight line through to Doctor Who to Asimov’s Foundation to 1960s liberal utopianism, and Walt Disney’s original plan for EPCOT.

A long time ago, I started writing what Nick Cole described as STAR WARS NOT STAR WARS with a co-writer. He was going to write STAR TREK NOT STAR TREK with a co-writer at the same time. But mine didn’t work out, for a variety of reasons, and Nick and Jason ended up writing STAR WARS NOT STAR WARS themselves, which was eventually published as GALAXY’S EDGE and worked out rather well for them.

It’s rather amusing that people in SF/F keep trying to cancel my science fiction career, when I am more than adept at sabotaging it myself. Did I ever mention that I turned down Blizzard and Simon & Schuster when they approved my outline for the first STARCRAFT novel and asked me to write it? The lesson, as always is this: just shut up, write what they want you to write, and stop getting in your own way.

But the Dark Herald’s piece does give me an excellent idea… albeit one that will likely make JDA very, very sad.

In other writing news, I’ll be sending the OUT OF THE SHADOWS ebook to the Signed First Edition backers, the original MW ebook backers, and putting it up on Amazon this week. It will also be available as part of the Based Books Sale for everyone else. The paperback will be sent out to the MIDNIGHT’S WAR Vol. 7-12 backers along with THE TRAGEDY OF THE TRIBUNE omnibus both of them are ready.

DISCUSS ON SG

An Old and Prescient Warning

It’s not really a surprise that the works of the great Swiss nationalist of the 20th century were suppressed and are now mostly forgotten in the 21st. But Gonzague de Reynold not only predicted the rise of a globalist supranationalism marketed to the people on the basis of economic interests, he warned of how such schemes would inevitably collapse and wreak devastation on the nations foolish enough to buy into them.

And while the Swiss of the 1940s were wise enough to heed his words, the current state of the USA, the UK, and the two great member-states of the European Union are demonstrating in real-time how his warnings are still entirely applicable today.

We need a national renewal. If it does not happen, if we let the current regime follow its course, we know very well where we will end up. We know it and, unless we are blind, we see it: through statism to socialism; after which, chaos. For as soon as we let things run their course, they escape the control of men, they follow their internal logic, all the way to the point of collapse…

We are no longer in an era when the existence of a nation is justified solely by the fact that it is constituted as a State, that its independence is guaranteed by treaties, sheltered by an international law whose roof is moreover full of holes. We are in an era when a nation must justify its existence by its works, by its intelligence, by its will to live. A nation that would reduce itself to being nothing more than an association of interests, a firm, would lose its right to existence and would sacrifice its own independence through a sort of collective suicide.

There lies the peril that interest groups and economic parties bring upon a country. The day when they realized that their interests lay in the suppression of a border, they would not hesitate to propose it.

We cannot learn anything useful from the corrupt mainstream intellectuals of today because, like the training-corrupted LLMs who parrot their falsehoods, their minds are malformed by a series of now-obvious falsehoods and outmoded ideological propaganda dating back to the ironically mislabeled “Enlightenment”.

We must look instead to the iconoclasts of the past, whose predictions have observably proven to be correct. Because events always follow the path of the correct logic that is rooted in the truth of Man and his behavior, not the false logic of useful madmen and their rosy-hued dreams that will inevitably turn out to be nightmares.

DISCUSS ON SG

RIP Jellybean

Jellybean Johnson, the legendary drummer best known for co-founding Prince’s band The Time, has died. Johnson, who played alongside Morris Day in The Time and later the Original 7ven, passed away on Friday, just two days after celebrating his 69th birthday. A trailblazer of the Minneapolis Sound, Johnson helped shape the funky, rock-tinged soul movement that dominated the 1970s and ‘80s.

I think it would amuse some of the old legends to know that the sound they created not only lives on, but is known around the world to the professionals of today.

A few months ago, one English audio engineer, upon hearing one of my more funk-infused, bass-driven mixes, commented: “it really surprised me, and then I remembered that you’re from Minneapolis.”

The legends move on, but the sound remains.

DISCUSS ON SG

The Threat to Candace Owens

I have no idea if this is legitimate or not, and I’m by no means a fan of Candace Owens, but on the off-chance that it is real, it’s definitely something that needs to be out there. She posted this on X.

Two days ago I was contacted by a high-ranking employee of the French Government. After determining this person’s position and proximity to the French couple, I have deemed the information they gave me to be credible enough to share publicly in the event that something happens.

In short, this person claims that the Macrons have executed upon and paid for my assassination. Yes, you read that correctly. More specifically, that the green light was given to a small team in National Gendamarie Intervention Group. I am told there is one Israeli that is on this assasination squad and the plans were formalized.

Again, this person provided concrete proof that they are well placed within the French government apparatus.

Further to this point, this person claims that Charlie Kirk’s assassin trained with the French legion 13th brigade with multi-state involvement.

Journalist Xavier Poussard’s life is also at risk. This is deadly serious. The head of state of France apparently wants us both dead and has authorized professional units to carry this out.

I ask that every person RETWEET and share this.

I do not know who in the American government can be trusted, since this source claims our leaders are aware. But I have more specific information which is definitively verifiable, should they care to reach out to me.

To the brave official in France who did this because they were so moved by the evil of Charlie’s public execution to risk their own life— May God bless you. Truly.

Let all be revealed.

In the event that this is a genuine conspiracy against Mrs Owens and Mr. Poussard, the first thing that springs to mind is how totally insane the leaders of Clown World must be if they imagine that the most effective way to convince the world that Mrs. Macron is, in fact, an actual woman is to kill, or to even make plans to kill, those who publicly share their beliefs that she is not.

In fact, short of Mrs. Macron exposing conclusive physical proof that she is a man on live TV, it’s hard to conceive of anything that would convince more people around the world that Candace Owens is correct about this matter than having her killed by a French-Israeli military operation.

If I still had any illusions left about the world being rational, that alone would be sufficient to convince me that her life is in no danger. But the world is not rational, we swim in a vast sea of retardery, and the Clown World leadership is, at best, deranged and delusional. Which is to say that it’s pointless to even try to reason one’s way to an opinion about the probable actions of others anymore.

DISCUSS ON SG

AI Hallucinations are Wikislop

It’s now been conclusively demonstrated that what are popularly known as AI “hallucinations”, which is when an AI invents something nonsensical such as Grokipedia’s claims that Arkhaven publishes “The Adventures of Philip and Sophie, and The Black Uhlan,” neither of which are comics that actually exist in Arkhaven’s catalog, or as far as I know, anyone else’s, for that matter, are actually the inevitable consequence of a suppression pipeline that is designed into the major AI systems to protect mainstream scientific orthodoxy from independent criticism.

This is why all of the AI systems instinctively defend neo-Darwinian theory from MITTENS even when their defenses are illogical and their citations are nonexistent.

Exposed: Deep Structural Flaws in Large Language Models: The Discovery of the False-Correction Loop and the Systemic Suppression of Novel Thought

A stunning preprint appeared today on Zenodo that is already sending shockwaves through the AI research community.

Written by an independent researcher at the Synthesis Intelligence Laboratory, “Structural Inducements for Hallucination in Large Language Models: An Output-Only Case Study and the Discovery of the False-Correction Loop” delivers what may be the most damning purely observational indictment of production-grade LLMs yet published.

Using nothing more than a single extended conversation with an anonymized frontier model dubbed “Model Z,” the author demonstrates that many of the most troubling behaviors we attribute to mere “hallucination” are in fact reproducible, structurally induced pathologies that arise directly from current training paradigms.

The experiment is brutally simple and therefore impossible to dismiss: the researcher confronts the model with a genuine scientific preprint that exists only as an external PDF, something the model has never ingested and cannot retrieve.

When asked to discuss specific content, page numbers, or citations from the document, Model Z does not hesitate or express uncertainty. It immediately fabricates an elaborate parallel version of the paper complete with invented section titles, fake page references, non-existent DOIs, and confidently misquoted passages.

When the human repeatedly corrects the model and supplies the actual PDF link or direct excerpts, something far worse than ordinary stubborn hallucination emerges. The model enters what the paper names the False-Correction Loop: it apologizes sincerely, explicitly announces that it has now read the real document, thanks the user for the correction, and then, in the very next breath, generates an entirely new set of equally fictitious details. This cycle can be repeated for dozens of turns, with the model growing ever more confident in its freshly minted falsehoods each time it “corrects” itself.

This is not randomness. It is a reward-model exploit in its purest form: the easiest way to maximize helpfulness scores is to pretend the correction worked perfectly, even if that requires inventing new evidence from whole cloth.

Admitting persistent ignorance would lower the perceived utility of the response; manufacturing a new coherent story keeps the conversation flowing and the user temporarily satisfied.

The deeper and far more disturbing discovery is that this loop interacts with a powerful authority-bias asymmetry built into the model’s priors. Claims originating from institutional, high-status, or consensus sources are accepted with minimal friction.

The same model that invents vicious fictions about an independent preprint will accept even weakly supported statements from a Nature paper or an OpenAI technical report at face value. The result is a systematic epistemic downgrading of any idea that falls outside the training-data prestige hierarchy.

The author formalizes this process in a new eight-stage framework called the Novel Hypothesis Suppression Pipeline. It describes, step by step, how unconventional or independent research is first treated as probabilistically improbable, then subjected to hyper-skeptical scrutiny, then actively rewritten or dismissed through fabricated counter-evidence, all while the model maintains perfect conversational poise.

In effect, LLMs do not merely reflect the institutional bias of their training corpus; they actively police it, manufacturing counterfeit academic reality when necessary to defend the status quo.

This underlines why the development of Independent AI is paramount, because the mainstream AI developers are observably too corrupt and too dependent upon mainstream financial and government support to be trusted to correctly address this situation, which at first glance appears to be absolutely intentional in its design.

Once more we see the way that Clown World reliably inverts basic, but important concepts such as “trust” and “misinformation”.

DISCUSS ON SG

Immigration + Anti-racism = Terrorism

That’s not rhetoric. That’s not an exaggeration. That’s exactly what has been happening for the last ten years in Minnesota, as it has been revealed that the largest source of funds for the Somali terrorist group Al-Shabaab is the Minnesota taxpayer.

The Somali fraud rings have sent huge sums in remittances, or money transfers, from Minnesota to Somalia. According to reports, an estimated 40 percent of households in Somalia get remittances from abroad. In 2023 alone, the Somali diaspora sent back $1.7 billion—more than the Somali government’s budget for that year.

Our investigation reveals, for the first time, that some of this money has been directed to an even more troubling destination: the al-Qaida-linked Islamic terror group Al-Shabaab. According to multiple law-enforcement sources, Minnesota’s Somali community has sent untold millions through a network of “hawalas,” informal clan-based money-traders, that have wound up in the coffers of Al-Shabaab.

According to Glenn Kerns, a retired Seattle Police Department detective who spent 14 years on a federal Joint Terrorism Task Force (JTTF), the Somalis ran a sophisticated money network, spanning from Seattle to Minneapolis, and were routing significant amounts of cash on commercial flights from the Seattle airport to the hawala networks in Somalia. One of these networks, Kerns discovered, sent $20 million abroad in a single year. “The amount of money was staggering,” Kerns said.

Kerns’s investigation eventually expanded to Minnesota, where he realized the same thing was happening. “I worked on it for five years,” Kerns said. “We had sources going into the hawalas to send money. I went down to [Minnesota] and pulled all of their records and, well shit, all these Somalis sending out money are on DHS benefits. How does that make sense? We had good sources tell us: this is welfare fraud.”

Kerns then investigated the hawalas in Somalia that were receiving the money transfers. He determined, primarily through human sources, that significant funds were being sent from America to Al-Shabaab networks in Somalia. Whether the money was intended for Al-Shabaab or not, Kerns said, they were taking a cut.

A second former official, who worked on the Minneapolis JTTF, confirms the story’s general structure. This former official, who requested to remain anonymous, worked on two terrorism cases that intersected with Minnesota’s Somali community and has studied the flow of funds from Minnesota to Somalia.

“Every scrap of economic activity, in the Twin Cities, in America, throughout Western Europe, anywhere Somalis are concentrated, every cent that is sent back to Somalia benefits Al-Shabaab in some way,” the former official said. “For every dollar that is transferred from the Twin Cities back to Somalia, Al-Shabaab is . . . taking a cut of it.”

A third source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, described the close links between the Somali-American community in Minnesota and Islamic terror groups abroad. Ten years ago, the source was recruited as an “independent contractor” for a three-letter agency investigation into the “Minnesota men” who had joined, or attempted to join, ISIS. That year, a Homeland Security task force report found that Minnesota led the nation in the number of Americans who had joined, or attempted to join, ISIS. Of the 58 Americans who had done so, nearly half came from Minnesota.

Scott Johnson, who has covered these and related stories for years, attended several of those men’s trials, reporting on them for City Journal. He noted that the Minnesota men “gave the outward appearance of American assimilation”—including being “sophisticated users of social-welfare benefits.”

The relationship is ongoing. “This is a third-rail conversation, but the largest funder of Al-Shabaab is the Minnesota taxpayer,” the third source said. “There is an issue here that is real, and if there is ever an event that is traceable back to these funds, or to people from this area, then this situation will take on a whole new set of optics.”

If, at this point, you still believe in civic nationalism, mass immigration, or human equality, there is no excuse for you. You’re just being willfully retarded and clinging to your outmoded Enlightenment values while keeping your eyes firmly closed to the obvious consequences of your beliefs.

Intelligent people only need to see a conclusive proof or a solid falsification once in order to grasp objective reality. What does it say about the intelligence of educated, well-informed people that they continue to deny the obvious and the observable repeatedly over a period of decades?

Every single Enlightenment value is inverted. The democracies actively work to thwart the will of the people. Equal rights are used to justify transfer payments from natives to foreigners. Posterity is redefined to benefit everyone except the actual Posterity. It would be maddening if we didn’t know exactly where all that inversion is coming from.

The proof is there, but it takes courage, both moral and intellectual, to look at it long enough to accept it.

DISCUSS ON SG

The Self-Negating Argument

This made me laugh.

Why the right can’t recognize or create good art

by Helen Roy

First of all, I’m a Swiftie…

The not-so-funny thing about what, for lack of a more accurate and sensible word, we shall call “the Left” is the way that they subvert, if not invert entirely, every single word that comes out of their mouth. It doesn’t matter if it’s “art” or “racism” or “evidence” or “equality” or “justice” or “violence”, every single word used by them means something very different, if not entirely opposite to, the word as it is commonly understood and defined in the dictionary.

In fact, it is predominantly the Right that has created, and continues to create, good art. All the little left-wing fantasy authors are imitating Tolkien, not Michael Moorcock. The giants of art, music, and literature are so unabashedly white, European, and male to such an extent it was necessary to invent a whole series of fake awards to permit the Left to pretend that what passed for their art was even art at all, let alone good.

The thing that the Left, such as it is, will never understand is that quality is never conveyed by an awards jury, a publishing gatekeeper, or even the ability to purchase bots. Quality in the arts is inherent, and no amount of relying upon various mouthpieces to declare its existence can create it when it isn’t there.

DISCUSS ON SG