The greatest generals

An interesting experiment in applying WAR to war. Which is to say, Wins Above Replacement:

Among all generals, Napoleon had the highest WAR (16.679) by a large margin. In fact, the next highest performer, Julius Caesar (7.445 WAR), had less than half the WAR accumulated by Napoleon across his battles. Napoleon benefited from the large number of battles in which he led forces. Among his 43 listed battles, he won 38 and lost only 5. Napoleon overcame difficult odds in 17 of his victories, and commanded at a disadvantage in all 5 of his losses. No other general came close to Napoleon in total battles. While Napoleon commanded forces in 43 battles, the next most prolific general was Robert E. Lee, with 27 battles (the average battle count was 1.5). Napoleon’s large battle count allowed him more opportunities to demonstrate his tactical prowess. Alexander the Great, despite winning all 9 of his battles, accumulated fewer WAR largely because of his shorter and less prolific career.

However, outside of Napoleon’s outlying success, the generals’ WARs largely adhere to a normal distribution. This suggests his success is attributable to command talent, rather than an anomaly in the model’s findings. In fact, Napoleon’s total WAR was nearly 23 standard deviations above the mean WAR accumulated by generals in the dataset.

There were also generals that had surprisingly low total WAR despite a reputation as master tacticians. Robert E. Lee, commander of the Confederate States Army, finished with a negative WAR (-1.89), suggesting an average general would have had more success than Lee leading the Confederacy’s armies. Lee was saddled with considerable disadvantages, including a large deficit in the size of his military and available resources. Still, his reputation as an adept tactician is likely undeserved, and his WAR supports the historians who have criticized his overall strategy and handling of key battles, such as ordering the disastrous ‘Pickett’s Charge’ on the last day of the Battle of Gettysburg. In the words of University of South Carolina professor Thomas Connely, “One ponders whether the South may not have fared better had it possessed no Robert E. Lee.”

German field marshal Erwin Rommel, nicknamed the ‘Desert Fox’ for his successes in North Africa during World War II, also performed poorly in this model, finishing with -1.953 WAR. This finding disputes the praise Rommel has received as a tactician from modern generals, including Norman Schwarzkopf and Ariel Sharon. However, like Lee, Rommel has been the subject of considerable historical debate. In particular, critics have attributed much of his reputation as a tactical genius to both German and Allied propaganda. British generals reportedly exaggerated Rommel’s tactical abilities in order to minimize disapproval regarding their defeats.

Modern generals performed relatively poorly in the model. American general George S. Patton, described by historian Terry Brighton as “among the greatest generals of [World War II],” accumulated only .9 WAR. The failure of modern generals to perform well in WAR may be attributable to changes in warfare which have prevented individual generals from participating in a large number of battles.

Among post-World War II generals, Israeli commanders stood out. Israeli military leader Moshe Dayan finished with 2.109 WAR (60th overall), an impressive amount for a modern general but relatively modest compared to pre-20th Century tacticians. Similarly, former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon accumulated 2.171 WAR (58th overall) for his battlefield successes in the Suez Crisis, Six-Day War, and Yom Kippur War.

It’s more an entertaining experiment than a serious statistical analysis, but I suspect the incredible tactical success it assigns to Napoleon is much more reflective of the French general’s strategic brilliance than anything else. In like manner, the Israeli generals appear to be overrated due to the low quality of their opposition; if I recall correctly, it was Dayan himself who said that the key to his military success was the fact that he was fighting Arabs.

Napoleon, on the other hand, fought the military creme de la creme of Europe, was often outnumbered, and usually won anyhow. But when you analyse his career, it tends to be his strategic actions that are the more striking and decisive.

The enemies of democracy

It sounds as if the new Austrian government may be following the lead of the God-Emperor in rooting out the anti-democratic Deep State:

The raids came without warning, surprising even the intelligence operatives whose job is to never be caught off guard.

On the morning of Feb. 28, police stormed offices of Austria’s main domestic intelligence agency and carted off some of the nation’s most sensitive secrets in open crates and plastic bags. Top spy service officials working from home that day were greeted by officers threatening to break down their doors.

The extraordinary decision to target the agency responsible for defending the country from a multitude of threats, including right-wing extremism, had been made by the service’s new bosses: members of the far-right Freedom Party.

The reason? Defending the totalitarian North Korean regime from an Austrian espionage operation, among others cited in the search warrant. Critics saw absurd pretext for a politically motivated stab at an independent institution that could threaten the party’s agenda.

More than five months later, the impact continues to ripple across this central European nation of 9 million – and far beyond. In a country whose geopolitical positioning between East and West has long made it a nest of spies – “a playground for all nations” in the words of one Austrian intelligence veteran – the hometown service has been left in disarray.

“It’s paralysis,” the veteran said. “How could you work in such an environment?”

Intelligence services across the West, meanwhile, have looked on in dismay – and have chosen to protect their own secrets by freezing Austria out.

And yet, it looks rather like the duly-elected Austrian government is working with both the U.S. white hats as well as Russia. Is anyone really surprised that the enemies of the people are siding with a shadowy, unaccountable intelligence agency rather than a popular government freely elected by the people?

Mailvox: you’re not LISTENING

A few days ago, despite my constant refrain of how to deal with the media, I received an email from someone asking if he should talk to the big media organization that wanted to ask him some questions, that wanted to let him give his side of the story. I can’t help but notice that in the entire written history of the mainstream media, no reporter has ever asked anyone to answer questions in order to publicly sacrifice his name and reputation to the reporter’s editor’s preconceived narrative.

My response to him was about what you’d expect: “What part of never talk to the media do you not understand?” There are no exceptions for special clever boys. There are no exceptions for narcissists, drama queens, or attention seekers. There are no exceptions.

However, in retrospect, I think I could have provided him with wiser and more effective counsel, which I shall share with all of you in case you find yourselves in similar circumstances someday. When an interview is requested by a mainstream journalist, or a reporter wants to talk to you in order to get your side of the story, just respond to him – or her – as follows:

“I don’t talk to enemies of the people.”

That’s it. Nothing more and nothing less. Don’t respond to the subsequent denials, protestations, assurances, accusations, and demands.

“I don’t talk to enemies of the people.” Drop the mic and walk away, mission accomplished.

Gun Ghoul #1 by Will Caligan

Dark Legion Comics announces GUN GHOUL #1: Raising the Dead by Will Caligan.

Someone – or something – is taking out the crime lords of Chicago.


Agent Justice of the FBI is on the case. She is a Meta Prime, with the ability to see into the past. But not even her ability to see what happened allows her to explain the impossible. And the FBI is not the only agency that is interested in learning more about the new player in town.

Will Caligan is the military veteran who was deplatformed by SJWs at his publisher earlier this year. He is now publishing with Dark Legion Comics, which will be releasing his Gun Ghoul and Techlore comics this fall as well as working with him on his new projects.

The ignorant mocker

From a comment on a Darkstream:

“Having a clean room doesn’t matter when Alaric the Goth is sacking your city.”

But, “the most important thing we can do is pray.”

Said totally unironically.

There is nothing at all ironic about the juxtaposition of those two statements. I advised the commenter to read how Fabius Maximus defeated the brilliant Carthaginian general Hannibal, and what his very first priority was when given command of the Roman legions.

From Livy, Ab Urbe Condita, Book 22

Q. Fabius Maximus was now Dictator for the second time. On the very day of his entrance upon office he summoned a meeting of the senate, and commenced by discussing matters of religion. He made it quite clear to the senators that C. Flaminius’ fault lay much more in his neglect of the auspices and of his religious duties than in bad generalship and foolhardiness. The gods themselves, he maintained, must be consulted as to the necessary measures to avert their displeasure, and he succeeded in getting a decree passed that the decemvirs should be ordered to consult the Sibylline Books, a course which is only adopted when the most alarming portents have been reported. 

After inspecting the Books of Fate they informed the senate that the vow which had been made to Mars in view of that war had not been duly discharged, and that it must be discharged afresh and on a much greater scale. The Great Games must be vowed to Jupiter, a temple to Venus Erycina and one to Mens; a lectisternium must be held and solemn intercessions made; a Sacred Spring must also be vowed. All these things must be done if the war was to be a successful one and the republic remain in the same position in which it was at the beginning of the war. As Fabius would be wholly occupied with the necessary arrangements for the war, the senate with the full approval of the pontifical college ordered the praetor, M. Aemilius, to take care that all these orders were carried out in good time. 

After the various obligations towards the gods had thus been discharged, the Dictator referred to the senate the question of the policy to be adopted with regard to the war, with what legions and how many the senators thought he ought to meet their victorious enemy… 


From Plutarch, Fabius

The first solemn action of his dictatorship was very fitly a religious one: an admonition to the people, that their late overthrow had not befallen them through want of courage in their soldiers, but through the neglect of divine ceremonies in the general. He therefore exhorted them not to fear the enemy, but by extraordinary honour to propitiate the gods. This he did, not to fill their minds with superstition, but by religious feeling to raise their courage, and lessen their fear of the enemy by inspiring the belief that Heaven was on their side. With this view, the secret prophecies called the Sibylline Books were consulted; sundry predictions found in them were said to refer to the fortunes and events of the time; but none except the consulter was informed. Presenting himself to the people, the dictator made a vow before them to offer in sacrifice the whole product of the next season, all Italy over, of the cows, goats, swine, sheep, both in the mountains and the plains; and to celebrate musical festivities with an expenditure of the precise sum of 333 sestertia and 333 denarii, with one-third of a denarius over. The sum total of which is, in our money, 83,583 drachmas and 2 obols. What the mystery might be in that exact number is not easy to determine, unless it were in honour of the perfection of the number three, as being the first of odd numbers, the first that contains in itself multiplication, with all other properties whatsoever belonging to numbers in general. 

In this manner Fabius, having given the people better heart for the future, by making them believe that the gods took their side, for his own part placed his whole confidence in himself, believing that the gods bestowed victory and good fortune by the instrumentality of valour and of prudence; and thus prepared he set forth to oppose Hannibal, not with intention to fight him, but with the purpose of wearing out and wasting the vigour of his arms by lapse of time, of meeting his want of resources by superior means, by large numbers the smallness of his forces. With this design, he always encamped on the highest grounds, where the enemy’s horse could have no access to him. Still he kept pace with them; when they marched he followed them; when they encamped he did the same, but at such a distance as not to be compelled to an engagement and always keeping upon the hills, free from the insults of their horse; by which means he gave them no rest, but kept them in a continual alarm. 

Darkstream: Paganism can’t save the West

Watch the Darkstream on BitChute.

To be clear, none of these self-proclaimed pagans are actual pagans. They don’t actually believe in pagan gods, they don’t actually worship pagan gods, they have no knowledge whatsoever of actual pagan religion, and so pagans are atheists, maybe agnostics at most. But the reality is that you have to give them some credit because the reason for this, for lack of a better term, for this paganism, the reason that people are trying to push it, is because they understand you cannot go into a religious war without a religion.

What we’re actually seeing – this is kind of ironic – the interest in paganism, particularly on the part of young Westerners, is a reaction to two things.  Number one, it’s a reaction to the increased number of Muslims in the West, but number two, it’s also a reaction to the complete failure of atheism. It’s a reaction to the failure of secular society. It is now very obvious to everyone that the whole idea that science was going to help humanity develop past religion and and create a society that was this shiny, sexy, science fiction futuristic society where everyone would wear funky 70’s one-piece suits isn’t going to happen. Secular humanism has completely failed and so because of that people are looking for alternatives.

Of course you’ve got the same problem in accepting Christianity. People, especially young people, are resistant to accepting Christian morality, and of course some people simply have problem believing in things that they can’t see. And so when you look at those factors, this is where you get the idiot pagans saying that Western civilization cannot be saved, it’s over and largely “thanks to Christianity which is so homo-Jewish.” It’s not at all, in fact, Jewish homosexuals would be the first to tell you how much and how actively they oppose Christianity. What you guys who are trying to blame the failure of Christendom on Christianity are doing is you’re attempting to saw off the branch that you’re sitting on in order to save the tree. It’s ridiculous. It’s utterly, utterly stupid

Middle-high severity territory

Peter Turchin tracks the intra-societal stresses that afflict historical societies, and the odds do not presently favor the current United States:

The fundamental drive (a kind of a “pump” that drives up social pressure) is the oversupply of labor, which developed after the 1970s as a result of multiple interacting factors, and more recently was made acute by technological change driving automation and robotization. Oversupply of labor is the root cause for both popular immiseration and elite over-production/intra-elite competition. Both of those factors, then, contribute to the fiscal crisis of the state, because immiserated population can’t pay taxes, while the elites work to reduce the taxes on themselves.

We saw all those mechanisms operating in our current crisis. Immiseration of large swaths of the American population was what fueled the successful campaign of a counter-elite presidential candidate, Donald Trump. Intra-elite conflict has reached unprecedented heights (since the First American Civil War), as the established elites are using various means at their disposal to get rid of the counter-elite chief of state. At the same time, a weird coalition of Trump and the established elites (remember, laws must be approved by the Congress) legislates deep cuts into the taxes the elites will pay, bringing the fiscal crisis of the state much sooner. Political violence has also reached new heights, although thankfully mostly demonstrators and counter-demonstrators are beaten up, not killed (a major exception was Charlottesville a year ago).

Until last year I thought that we collectively have a decent chance of avoiding the crisis, but I now have abandoned this hope. A major reason for my pessimism is the resolute refusal by our ruling class (including its both Liberal and Conservative wings) to see the real causes of the crisis. They are internal, not external. As a result, the mid-term elections will be completely free of (largely mythical) Russian influence, but no attempt is made to address the deep structural-demographic causes. All these pressures continue to increase….

Over the years I have studied about thirty cases of historical societies going into crisis, and emerging from it, ranging from Rome and China to France, Russia, and the United States. I scored the crisis severity in each by such parameters as the effect on the population (none, mild decline, catastrophic decrease), on the established elites (from mild downward social mobility to dispossession or even extermination), and on the state (territorial fragmentation, external conquest). Adding together these indicators, here’s the result: As you see, the more positive outcomes (lower severity on the left side) are fairly rare (about 10{8359bd26b913e24a7303d212a23546aa4fafa0cfcdec25c849ef881c8a4ae759} of historical cases), while the majority of outcomes cluster in the middle-high severity territory.

I would be very surprised if the results of the coming crisis in the USA does not result in the dispossession and deportation of the established elites, given the fact that so many of them are foreign. As a general rule, foreign elites only survive a crisis when they habitually act in the interests of the masses over which they rule; those which predominantly act in their own interests tend to fare considerably less well.

Mailvox: DC’s take

You’re a DC character now. Thought you’d get a kick out of this character from a book called “Border Town” that’s clearly meant to be you.

Frankly, I think I prefer Marvel’s take on me. But it is amusing to see just how awful the new Vertigo comics are. As bad as we assumed they’d be, they’re actually worse, at least when it comes to the characters and the stories.

And just to set the record straight, I am not HALF-MEXICAN! It was my great-grandfather who was the Mexican revolutionary.

As it happens, I am 100 percent pure native Wakandan. Journalists, reporters, and other enemies of the people, please note this in all future references to me. Thank you.

The confidence game

Some will consider this missive to be overly optimistic. And perhaps it is. On the other hand, it fits the observable evidence considerably better than virtually every other interpretation of current events over the last few months that I’ve seen. It answers the two primary doubts that Q skeptics have.

  1. Why isn’t anything substantive seen to be happening?
  2. Why isn’t the President acting more openly?

The answer is straightforward. The control of the media over people’s perceptions of what the truth is absolutely has to be broken before news of this magnitude can go public. And now we’re seeing the God-Emperor do what he has been doing since his campaign for the Republican nomination began. He is forcing the media to expose themselves and declare themselves openly.

Trust the plan. Recognize the pattern. Shut up and email.

Do you really think we are not in control? We have everything.

  • Proof of assassination attempts.
  • Proof of murder and child sacrifice.
  • Proof of treason and sedition.

Any time we want, we can pounce. Trump can declare martial law. Legally and instantly if needed. Maybe he already has? Maybe arrests already happened.

  • Hillary 10/30/17.
  • Podesta. Huma. LDR. 11/17.

Catch and release. Of media owners. Of Cabal directors. Less than 100 people. And the 4AM talking point authors.

The media is doing what they are told. And they are told to attack Trump. And the lemmings follow blindly. Along with Congress and the world. Why? It’s actually quite simple. Genius. Elegant. Foolproof.

The current battle is against the media.

  • Step 1: Force media to destroy themselves.
  • Step 2: Expose media as the people’s enemy.
  • Step 3: People blame media for the coverup.
  • Step 4: Media is destroyed and replaced. Arrests are easy. Institutions are not.

Faith in the media must be destroyed.

Trump lets them live in jail, if plan works. Otherwise their sentence is death. Military tribunals already held. They are working hard for Trump. To save their own lives, and their kids. Jail better than hanging to most. Others have already chosen hanging. Explains suicide weekend option.

In exchange, they destroy the media for us. On purpose and on schedule. On time and under budget. Trump style. They are forced to corner themselves. They are forced to turn on themselves. More efficient. Saul Alinsky style. I think we are ahead of schedule.

Mid terms are not at risk. They never were at risk. 70{8359bd26b913e24a7303d212a23546aa4fafa0cfcdec25c849ef881c8a4ae759} conservative / 30{8359bd26b913e24a7303d212a23546aa4fafa0cfcdec25c849ef881c8a4ae759} liberal = True. We would never leave it to chance. The only risk left is economic. From normies freaking out too much. Or rogue operators. The 4-6{8359bd26b913e24a7303d212a23546aa4fafa0cfcdec25c849ef881c8a4ae759}.

We fought the real war in 2017. Trump at CIA on day fucking 1. Battle started that morning. Last major battle was Vegas 10/17. SA government overthrown weeks later. Then Q starts posting 10/28/17.

This battle is now about minds. Slowly awakening the masses. To break the media hypnosis. Relax. Be a warrior not a worrier. Justice has already been served.

You just don’t know it yet.

75 percent certainty

Nate Silver and company are even more certain that Democrats will take the House of Representatives than they were that Hillary Clinton would be elected President (72{8359bd26b913e24a7303d212a23546aa4fafa0cfcdec25c849ef881c8a4ae759}):

3 in 4 Chance Democrats win control (74.6{8359bd26b913e24a7303d212a23546aa4fafa0cfcdec25c849ef881c8a4ae759})
1 in 4 Chance Republicans keep control (25.4{8359bd26b913e24a7303d212a23546aa4fafa0cfcdec25c849ef881c8a4ae759})

They are so certain of victory that they are desperately appealing to Republicans to vote for Democratic Congressional candidates:

In November, many Republican leaners and independents will face a difficult decision. The national Democratic Party under Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer doesn’t share their views or values. But Trump is a rolling disaster of mendacity, corruption and prejudice. What should they do?

They should vote Democratic in their House race, no matter who the Democrats put forward. And they should vote Republican in Senate races with mainstream candidates (unlike, say, Corey Stewart in Virginia).

Why vote strategically in this case? Because American politics is in the midst of an emergency.

If Democrats gain control of the House but not the Senate, they will be a check on the president without becoming a threat to his best policies (from a Republican perspective) or able to enact their worst policies. The tax cut will stand. The Senate will still approve conservative judges. But the House will conduct real oversight hearings and expose both Russian influence and administration corruption. Under Republican control, important committees — such as chairman Devin Nunes’ Intelligence Committee — have become scraping, sniveling, panting, pathetic tools of the executive branch. Only Democratic control can drain this particular swamp.

Alternatively: If Republicans retain control of the House in November, Trump will (correctly) claim victory and vindication. He will have beaten the political performances of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama in their first midterms. He will have proven the electoral value of racial and ethnic stereotyping. He will have demonstrated the effectiveness of circuslike distraction. He will have shown the political power of bold, constant, uncorrected lies. And he will gain many more enablers and imitators.

Perhaps worst of all, a victorious Trump will complete his takeover of the Republican Party (which is already far along). Even murmured dissent will be silenced. The GOP will be fully committed to a 2020 presidential campaign conducted in the spirit of George Wallace — a campaign of racial division, of rural/urban division, of religious division, of party division that metastasizes into mutual contempt.

This would leave many Americans entirely abandoned in American politics: Catholics who are both pro-life and pro-immigrant. Evangelicals who are conservative but think that character matters, that compassion counts, that racial healing is a Christian calling. Traditional Republicans who miss a time — not so long ago — when leaders such as Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush modeled grace and led the West in defending freedom.

In a democracy, a vote is usually not a matter of good and evil. It is a matter of weighing competing goods and choosing lesser evils. The possible outcomes this November come down to this: Trump contained, or Trump triumphant.

Democrats, I suspect, will make a victory harder than it should be. A significant number seem to view Trump’s vulnerability as an opportunity to ideologically purify their party. They are actively undermining the job of containing the president by alienating centrist voters they need to turn the House.

But this does not change the political and ethical reality. The only way to save the GOP is to defeat it in the House. In this case, a Republican vote for a Democratic representative will be an act of conscience.

The media simply does not understand, they simply will not accept, that it is the God-Emperor who is increasingly popular with the people, not the useless Republican cucks and cons in Congress. They also don’t understand that the higher turnout in Democratic primaries isn’t just a useful sign of party enthusiasm, it’s also an indicator that the Democratic candidates nominated are going to be further to the left than they were in 2016. Which, in genuinely competitive districts, is usually going to render them less electable in November.