Propped up on credit

A number of European economies are nearly as awash in debt as the USA, and in some cases such as Estonia, Ireland, and Spain, their asset bubbles were much worse:

The dire state of Britain’s public finances were laid bare today as the Government unveiled new figures that showed public sector net borrowing swelled by a record £16.1 billion in August. It was the largest increase in the amount of new debt held by the UK Government since records began. With the recession continuing to eat into government tax receipts, the Office for National Statistics said that public sector net borrowing hit £16.1 billion, up from £9.8 billion a year ago.

I can’t stress this enough. There is no recovery. As Bob Prechter’s observation suggests, most observers are looking at the entire picture at too small a scale. There is a growing amount of evidence to suggest that he is correct and that we are not looking at two – and potentially three if the W-shapers such as Roubini are correct – distinct recessions since 2000, but rather the development of one very large depression.

Don’t forget that GDP is simply a metric, it is not the economy. The economic theory behind it is focused on unemployment, not some abstract and subjective statistic. And unemployment has been consistently rising around the world regardless of what the credit-inflated numbers report. The governments are taking increasingly massive gambles in desperate attempts to stave off collapse, and I don’t need to remind the regulars here of the unreliable track record of government in anything it hopes to accomplish.

In what may be the biggest financial gamble in 87 years as a sovereign state, the [Irish] government will spend about 28 percent of the country’s gross domestic product for 2008 to become the owner of loans for property developments that are plunging in value…. The strategy is designed to keep alive Bank of Ireland Plc and Allied Irish Banks Plc. In April, the government said NAMA would take on about 90 billion euros of loans.

Meanwhile, a little closer to home, it looks like the next wave of mortgage meltdown is nigh:

Payment option ARMs are about to explode,” Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller said after a Thursday meeting with members of President Barack Obama’s administration to discuss ways to combat mortgage scams.

This is the inevitable – absolutely inevitable – consequence of the $29 billion in adjustable rate mortgages that reset and magically transform from low-interest loans into high-interest ones. Another $67 billion will reset in 2010. The amazing thing is that these Option ARMs going to blow up and drive tens of thousands of homeowners into default even though interest rates haven’t risen appreciably.


Mailvox: Domestic nation building

The OC considers the long-term ineffectiveness of domestic social policy:

Am I just imagining it, or does no one else understand that the “war on poverty” (and the “war on racism” and “urban renewal” and all the rest of that associated LBJ-era social engineering tripe) is exactly the same thing as “nation building,” and springs from exactly the same set of arrogant and sanctimonious late 19th-century Utopian beliefs? E.g.

a.) that mankind can be improved and perfected by purely scientific and socioeconomic means

b.) that some people are too benighted to uplift themselves any time reasonably soon, ergo,

c.) it is the White Man’s Burden to uplift these people and bring them into the full glory of modern Western scientific civilization, whether they want it or not.

Perhaps it’s time to strip away the cruft and just call it what it is: nation building. Whether foreign or domestic, both forms are equally doomed to fail, because of a fundamental principle of human nature. You can’t help people who don’t want to be helped.

This is a perspicacious observation. Nation-building in Iraq and Afghanistan is no different than the structural societal modifications that have been forced on Americans by Washington for the last 45 years. Civil rights have been a disaster for the black and white communities alike, immigration has destroyed the economic supports for the poor and working classes, and globalization has forced the middle classes into massive debt.

We know nation-building doesn’t work. We know planned societal restructuring doesn’t work. The marvel, then, is that so many people continue to believe that it is possible. The reason, of course, is the religious belief in the improvability, if not perfectibility, of Man.


Suffering for science

I don’t have much sympathy for this prospective martyr for scientific journalism:

The reason his name is giving everyone the jitters is that he’s being sued for libel by the British Chiropractic Association (BCA) for an article he published in The Guardian newspaper last year. In the article, Singh argued that there is no evidence for some of the claims that the BCA makes about the health benefits of visiting a chiropractor. He wrote, “The British Chiropractic Association claims that their members can help treat children with colic, sleeping and feeding problems, frequent ear infections, asthma and prolonged crying, even though there is not a jot of evidence. This organisation is the respectable face of the chiropractic profession and yet it happily promotes bogus treatments.”

The BCA asked for a retraction and an apology. Singh refused. The Guardian offered the BCA the opportunity to print a clarification and write a response, so they could lay out evidence supporting their claims. The BCA refused. The libel case is the result.

There’s absolutely nothing wrong with this British libel law. All Singh had to do was retract his false statement and apologize; he refused to do so. So now, if he can’t back up his assertion in court, and it appears that he may not be able to since all the BCA has to do is demonstrate that there is “a jot of evidence” supporting the health benefits to children of visiting a chiropractor, then he deserves to pay for the full extent of the damages incurred, whatever they might be.

As usual, the self-appointed defenders of science are whining and want to play by different rules than those they demand apply to everyone else. If Singh is correct and there is no evidence, then he’s got nothing to worry about. If Singh is incorrect, then obviously he should have retracted his false assertion and apologized.

Don’t get me wrong, I am every bit as skeptical about alternative medicine in general and chiropractors in particular as Singh himself. Quite possibly even more so. However, if you get called on a blanket assertion, then you either have to back it up or retract it. Crying about laws that do no more than hold you accountable for your comments is ridiculous, and the idea that people should be able to freely inflict material damage on others without being held accountable in any way is absurd.

And, of course, it’s worth noting that the UK, like most European countries, does not possess the strong free speech protections that the USA does. It’s yet another way that religious America is better for science than the secular European utopias.


Obama gets it right

In general, if you’re upsetting the neocons, you’re on the right track:

President Barack Obama has decided to scrap plans for a U.S. missile defense shield in the Czech Republic and Poland that had deeply angered Russia, the Czech prime minister confirmed Thursday.

This is a wise decision. There is no way that defending the Czech Republic and Poland is in the U.S. national interest. More to the point, it’s not even credible for the U.S. to pretend that it is capable of defending Eastern Europe against any kind of Russian attack. This is one of the first intelligent things that Obama has done since January, and if he’s smart he will continue to ignore the shrieks of outrage that are bound to come from the usual suspects.

A military commitment to lesser states is almost always a mistake for a Great Power that is not aggressively seeking to expand. Russia isn’t about to fire missiles at either the Czechs or the Poles; they’d never need to given their close proximity and the size of their ground forces.


The girl is D-U-M-B

The world’s most clueless econoblogger makes an ass of herself again… albeit with an assist from Rod Dreher:

Limbaugh Hits a New Low…. I really did not think it was possible for me to like Rush Limbaugh any less. Now I realize that I was mentally excluding all sorts of activities from the realm of the possible, like murdering boatloads of Guatamalan orphans, or this sort of vileness. It won’t be the last time I’m wrong, but I certainly hope it’s the last time I’m that wrong about talk radio’s capacity for socially destructive quasi-populist virulent nonsense.

McArdle hits a new low of her own… I really did not think it was possible for me to think she was any dumber after her post that supported thought-policing the Right. And what does she have her granny panties in a twist about now? A bitingly sarcastic piece by Limbaugh about the Obama administration, Newsweek’s racist baby, and the white kid getting beat up by black kids on the school bus: “Look, this thing on the bus cannot possibly be a hate crime. The cops are probably lying about what happened even though we have the video. The video was probably doctored and edited. We all know that cops are liars, racist pigs and that the white kid deserved it. I mean that’s modern 2009 going into 2010 America.”

The reality is that as much as the various twits at the Atlantic would like to sweep it under the table, (to Dreher’s credit, he does not), violent black-on-white crime is far more common than the reverse and one of the many reasons for this is that the same guilty white liberals who were piddling themselves with joy over Obama have been making excuses for violent black criminals for nearly fifty years.

As long as we’re on the subject, it’s worth noting that statistics readily demonstrate that the racist lynchings of the past were far less of a problem than violent black crime is today. The Tuskegee Institute reports 3,437 lynchings of black Americans between 1882 and 1968. If one takes into account the 1,293 lynchings of white Americans as well as the relative population difference, this means there were roughly 38 race-motivated lynchings per year. In 2005, the FBI reported 37,460 white women were raped or sexually assaulted by black men. By contrast, zero black women were raped or sexually assaulted by white men. In other words, over the course of a year, 990 white women are now attacked by black men for every racist lynching of the past. Naturally, guilty white liberals are much more deeply concerned about the latter than the former. Nor is it only a problem for white women, as an additional 964 black women were raped or sexually assaulted by black men for each of those lynchings as well.

The strange thing about this is that it’s fairly apparent that none of the four individuals commenting on Rush’s broadcast, including Dreher, appear to have bothered to read the transcript, much less listen to a recording of the actual show, before spouting off. To condemn a man for saying something without quoting or even linking to his actual words smacks of serious intellectual dishonesty.

UPDATE – On the other hand, statistical probability doesn’t mean that charges of rape against black men can be considered inherently credible, as this example of morning-after remorse clearly demonstrates: Moments ago my office moved to dismiss all charges against four men accused of committing a sexual assault on the campus of Hofstra University. Late this evening, during the continuation of the Nassau County Police Department’s investigation of the allegation, and under questioning by my office’s chief trial attorney and chief sex crimes prosecutor, the alleged victim of the sexual assault admitted that the encounter that took place early Sunday morning was consensual. One hopes that the lying woman will be prosecuted and jailed, as crying rape harms the interests of innocent men and real female victims alike. A woman who lies in an attempt to press rape charges should not only be prosecuted and jailed for years, but her picture should also be distributed as widely throughout the media as were the pictures of those she falsely accused.


Even the fake journalists are blushing

John Stewart on the hilarious ACORN expose. I don’t have much to say about it myself. I guess it never occurred to me to imagine that the organization wasn’t a corrupt collection of scam artists:


When strategists can’t do math

Iain Murray recommends an innumerate approach:

I don’t think I’ve ever been as depressed, shocked or, for that matter, frightened by an opinion poll finding as with this one…. This is getting out of hand. I was heartened by the relative lack of birther signs during the Saturday teaparty, given that in a crowd that size you’re bound to get more than a small smattering of nutjobs. This poll, however, suggests that the problem of irrational extremism in politics is much worse than I suspected. Leaders really have to get a grip. If ever there was time for a national, bipartisan Sister Souljah moment, this is it.

What did that poll reveal? What has the gentleman so depressed, shocked and frightened? It turns out it’s the news that 29 percent of Republicans either think Obama is the Anti-Christ or aren’t sure if he is or not. Now, I very much would like to see the Republican Party souljahmize the most conservative one-third of the party in the name of political “rationality”. Because that would serve to finish the G.O.P. forever and ensure their replacement by a party more capable of acting as a genuine opposition to the Democratic Party. As for the bipartisan angle, I would also welcome any Democrat who has stopped drinking the Kool-Aid served by the bi-factional ruling party that serves itself and The State uber alles.

Seriously, the more I read from these Republican squishes, the more I wonder if they’re actually Democrats trying to suicide the party from within. This LA Times article was particularly amusing; normally I’m used to hearing ridiculous claims that “no one reads WND”. Now, suddenly, WND is setting the “conservative fringe agenda”:

They are “wild accusations and the paranoid delusions coming from the fever swamps,” said David Frum, a conservative author and speechwriter for President George W. Bush who is among the more vocal critics of the party base and of the conservative talk show hosts helping to fan the unrest.

“Like all conservatives, I am concerned about this administration’s accumulation of economic power,” Frum said. “Still, you have to be aware that there’s a line where legitimate concerns begin to collapse into paranoid fantasy.”

Frum and other establishment Republicans have spoken out in recent days against the influence of what they view as their party’s fringe elements. Some are pressuring the Republican National Committee and other mainstream GOP groups to cut ties with WorldNetDaily.com, which reports some of the allegations. Its articles are cited by websites and pundits on the right. More than any other group, critics say, WorldNetDaily sets the conservative fringe agenda.

I think Joseph Farah has made it eminently clear that neither he nor anyone else at WND gives an airborne rodent’s fornication about what the RNC or any other mainstream group does or thinks. Having been ignored and ridiculed by them for nearly the entirety of its existence, WND clearly has no need for them and the only reason the Republican base is now turning to “the fever swamps” is because the Republican leadership and much of the conservative media have been rolling over for neocons and Democrats for over a decade.


Fraters book review

Chad the Elder checks out Codeville’s Advice to War Presidents:

After eight years of wavering and inconsistent foreign policy under President Bush (quasi-isolationist to neoconservative to realist) and nine months of a “one world, one dream” hand-holding and Kumbaya-singing approach to diplomacy under President Obama, the United States desperately needs to get back to statecraft basics. At least that’s the clearly delivered and well-articulated argument put forward by Angelo Codevilla in his book Advice to War Presidents: A Remedial Course in Statecraft.

The book is a primer for statesmen and especially presidents to follow in order to return the country to a more pragmatic approach to foreign affairs. Codevilla doesn’t propose a specific label to cover what he proposes, but it might be called “common sense statecraft.” To paraphrase Teddy Roosevelt, Codevilla wants the United States to “speak clearly, carry a big stick, and don’t be afraid to swing it hard when you must” when dealing with other countries.

Codevilla’s advice sounds like an eminently sensible approach, although I question the wisdom of attempting to deal with terrorism by aggressively going about defeating it. Terrorism is a symptom, therefore it cannot be treated as if it is the disease. The present terrorist threat can be completely ended by a) withdrawing from the Middle East, and b) expelling all nationals from Middle Eastern countries and refusing entry to them. And that’s simply not going to happen for political reasons, so we’ll continue with the same strategy that hasn’t worked for the USA or Israel in four decades, namely, killing a few terrorists here and there while constantly generating new ones through collateral damage.

But the core strategy is very sound. If you’re going to engage in military conflict, first make sure you are in line with both the national interest and the will of the people, then go to war with a vengeance. And then bring the troops home as soon as they finish killing people and breaking things. No more nation-building, democracy-constructing, globo-policing, or Korean border fence-sitting nonsense.


Cash 4 Casas

The NYT covers the ongoing attempt to create more housing debt:

When Congress passed an $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers last winter, it was intended as a dose of shock therapy during a crisis. Now the question is becoming whether the housing market can function without it. As many as 40 percent of all home buyers this year will qualify for the credit. It is on track to cost the government $15 billion, more than twice the amount that was projected when Congress passed the stimulus bill in February….

The National Association of Realtors estimates that about 350,000 sales this year would not have happened without the lure of the tax credit. Moody’s Economy.com used computer modeling to put the number at 400,000.

As Calculated Risk points out, this is the equivalent of spending $43,000 per house buyer who would not have bought without the program. Lunacy. And since this program is both artificially propping up house prices and creating more debt, it’s going to make the next crash even more painful. Which, no doubt, is why the Republican Senator who originally proposed the program is looking to expand it to everyone and double the incentive, in order to stave off the crash a little longer.

This isn’t an economy in recovery. This is an economy on government life support.


Yes, we’re still unimpressed

Paul Shirley is also more than a little underwhelmed:

As I grew older, I was confused by everyone’s reverence for The Beatles. Curious, I listened, read and researched. Eventually, I had to admit that the band was important and influential. But that didn’t make their music any better. It was predictable, fairly dull and seemed elementary. Because I thought Achtung Baby was better, I listened to Achtung Baby….

I understand that The Beatles are culturally significant and important in the historical progression of rock music. And I understand that they’re talented. But unless you were locked in a time capsule like Brendan Fraser in “Blast From the Past,” they cannot be your favorite band. If you’re younger than 50 and you do make such a claim, you’re either (A) trying to impress someone with what you think will be received as good taste, or (B) woefully behind in your consumption of music.

Shirley obviously thinks a bit more of them than I do. But not much more. Meanwhile, over at the OC’s Friday Challenge, Henry mistakes my contempt for the Baby Boomers for the usual intergenerational irritation, but nevertheless raises an interesting idea about them:

The rap on the Boomers is that we never grew up, never learned that the world didn’t revolve around us. I’ll go ahead and admit that there is some truth to that. I know members of my generation who haven’t ever learned what it means to be a grown up. But I’m also believe no previous generation was quite like the Boomers.

I could go on about all the things in this world that are not the fault of the Boomers, but that is mostly beside the point. The thing that was truly unique about the Boomer generation is that they were far more likely than previous generations to survive into adulthood. There was no major war being fought as they grew up nor the worst depression ever seen by the industrial world. Through out the Boomer’s lives, the country’s wealth was increasing at such a pace that people we now consider poor are living a lifestyle that would have been considered middle class in the 1970s.

Put bluntly, more irresponsible and idiotic Boomers survived to adulthood that any generation before it.

I suspect it has more to do with the mass media myself. But the point is that I don’t despise the Boomers because they are my parent’s generation. I’m completely fine with the idea that tastes change and so forth. What I find annoying is the way the Baby Boomers are the first generation to completely fail to understand that as adults. As I pointed out previously, there is no chance that any Generation X writer is going to be writing headlines about Duran Duran still being cool in 2027.

But if a Baby Boomer survives that long, who can doubt that he’ll still be insisting that The Beatles are the best music that the human race ever managed to produce and Woodstock changed the world. And he’ll be doing it even if the human race is living in underground bunkers hiding from the AI gods ruling over a planet full of psychotic killer robots.

Henry, we’ll make you all a deal. We’ll stop ranting about your generation as soon as your generation will STFU about itself.


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