Okay, that was timely

Two days ago, I wrote this on the RGD blog: “You can safely expect similar “surprises” to take place in the United States and Europe over the next three quarters.” This consumer confidence report would appear to be the first of many to come:

The Consumer Confidence Index, released by The Conference Board, sank unexpectedly to 47.7 in October — its second-lowest reading since May. Forecasters predicted a higher reading of 53.1. A reading above 90 means the economy is on solid footing. Above 100 signals strong growth.

The animals spirits, they descend.


Mailvox: the materialist’s observations

JS is musing on some observations:

I wanted to ask you about William Lane Craig. Having seen or listened to many of his debates and arguments, I have to say that the guy is pretty impressive. During his debate with Bart Ehrman though, Ehrman brought up an interesting point. Craig had pulled out some probability equations to display that the resurrection of Christ was more likely than other explanations (followers stealing the body, Jesus’ evil twin), particularly the explanations put forth in Ehrman’s book. Ehrman then responded by saying “I can’t believe we are arguing about the probability of the resurrection, we would be laughed off the stage if we were in front of a crowd of real academics.” He then went on to downplay WLC appeals to authority by stating Craig taught and lived in a bubble where all the academics he interacted with were believers and that he had little idea of the beliefs of academics outside the academia of faith.

In addition to ridiculing Craig’s authority appeals, what Ehrman was getting at was that the idea of a supernatural resurrection is so ridiculous, probability formulation doesn’t even come into play because it is absurd on the face of it. Isn’t this where believers’ argument get hung up, even arguments as compelling as Craig’s? Given what we know about the physical world, a mythical resurrection just isn’t possible. Keep in mind that I’m not necessarily making a statement of opposition here, just stating an “observable truth”. This brings forward another question, which is why we don’t see evidence of the supernatural/mystical/divine, etc. today? My thought is that if this material existed, we would have found some definitive evidence for it by now. But what little evidence there is for ghost or whatever else, is readily dismissed. Do you Vox, have any examples of the supernatural that would be at all convincing to the open mind?

Finally, while my materialism may be strong, I have noticed a sad trend with my fellow materialists, which is a vainglorious attitude and sort of misplaced condescension. When I read Sam Harris’ article against Francis Collins, I must admit that I was ashamed to be part of this worldview, yet the shouts of “here, here” on the message boards in the secular blogosphere were largely in agreement. If Collins had been Jewish or Islamic, I’m pretty sure the NYT would not have run that article.

My final question to you is this….what is the source of this narrow-minded attitude of the secular set, be they scientist, philosopher, or layperson? Is it fear? My thought is that if your argument is strong enough, there is no reason to resort to libelous acts and petty insults. I have started to notice this trend among my fellow secularists more and more and admit that it is beginning to try my patience.

First, let me say that I am deeply unimpressed by both Craig’s appeal to mathematical precision and Ehrman’s appeal to academic credentials. Craig’s stunt is no more valid when he pulls it than it was when Dawkins or Luke do the same; “probability calculations” have all too often become a bizarre rhetorical flourish that is no more legitimate today than were similarly innumerate shenanigans when Charles Babbage decried them back in 1830. Any economist can tell you that probability is problematic enough even when you have the relevant numbers, and appealing to it is fraudulent when you don’t – especially when you don’t because you can’t!

Ehrman, however, is demonstrating nothing but a willfully closed mind and a blind faith in materialism. We see observable evidence of what may or may not be the supernatural every day, from the mystery of human consciousness to people being confirmed dead by medical experts and then somehow returning to life. The fact that we possess possible material explanations for these things and that this evidence presently falls short of being definitive does not make it nonexistent. I readily admit that we may one day prove that consciousness is a purely material construct and that every single post-mortem resurrection was merely a mistaken observation on the declaring doctor’s part, but in the meantime, assuming those two things as fact is nothing but an act of pure and stubborn faith that cannot be justified by the material evidence available at the present. This is a good example of how many atheist arguments rely upon appeals to logic even though they are presented under the color of science.

Moreover, this ignores the mass of documentary evidence supporting the existence of the supernatural. While it is often possible to dismiss testimonial evidence with ex post facto diagnoses of “mental illness” and “hallucination”, there are no shortage of incidents that do not lend themselves to such interpretations, such as when individuals speak languages they do not know or possess information that they have no material means of possessing. I have personally witnessed the latter, and while in that particular case I can concoct a very complicated and improbable (in the non-mathematical sense) scenario in order to rationalize it materially, it is not the sort of thing that anyone who is genuinely open-minded would be able to completely dismiss.

As for your observation that your fellow secular materialists have become increasingly vainglorious and narrow-minded, I believe it is because they have been misled into a false sense of security by a combination of Christian intellectual sloth and the increasing compartmentalization of Western society. Intelligent, self-satisfied atheists with post-graduate degrees think those who believe in the supernatural are all poorly educated dimwits out to oppress others for the same reason that wealthy, suburban Christians with beautiful families think those who don’t believe in God are all miserable gay alcoholics out to commit suicide. Their paths very seldom cross, their assumptions are often confirmed by the extreme examples that come to their attention, and on the rare occasion that the intelligent, highly-educated Christian or the happy, well-adjusted atheist finds himself in the territory of “the other”, he’s usually going to be inclined to keep his mouth shut about his beliefs in order to avoid unnecessarily rocking the boat. This dynamic can be seen at work even on this blog, as with a few exceptions, the people known with certainty to be atheists tend to be the less intelligent, socially autistic variety, just as on campus the only identifiable Christians tend to be either the genuine saints or annoying evangelizing whackos.

Nor should the effect of Christian intellectual sloth be discounted. Having long been the dominant belief-system, Christians all too readily drift off into internecine navel-gazing rather than intelligent engagement; even here I occasionally have to prevent people from starting an esoteric theological debate while in the middle of discussing the most basic concepts with non-believers who are unfamiliar with them. I think part of what you are describing is a minor secular version of the same process at work in the university environment. When Sam Harris makes a demonstrably stupid statement about the intrinsic inability of someone given to “magical thinking” to perform science, a statement which can be easily and conclusively proved to be utterly false, he is not questioned by his fellow secularists, let alone derided as he merits. And even in your own case, your language betrays the bias of your assumptions. There is no debate over whether a mythical resurrection is or isn’t possible because the question at hand is whether the impossible resurrection is a myth or not! And remember how often academics have been historically prone to reach consensus on beliefs and ideologies later confirmed to have been completely false – see yesterday’s post on Mises vs Mayers for just one of many possible examples – so I suggest it would not be wise to place too much confidence in the present academic consensus regarding rational materialism.

I explained my reasoning on the non-existence of scientific evidence for the supernatural in a 2002 column entitled Satan, Science, and the Supernatural. Jesus taught that we cannot enter into the light until we first recognize and reject the darkness within us, so if you are going to find evidence for the supernatural in a fallen world, you must begin by searching for evil. To paraphrase Nietzsche, if you stare into the abyss long enough, it will eventually meet your eyes. You may not be a Christian once you reach that point, but you will certainly no longer be a pure materialist either. Nietzsche was speaking metaphorically, of course, but I believe his words are more literally true than he realized or intended at the time.


More powerful than CSPAN

I thought this note by Derbyshire might amuse the Dread Ilk who participated in the yesterday’s Amazon launch of RGD:

Yesterday’s airing of the Derb-Colmes knockdown on C-SPAN lifted WAD up into 400-something on Amazon sales rankings.

It’s certainly testimony to the relative power of the Internet vs cable media anyhow. Speaking of media, I’m on with Jerry Hughes now if you’d like to listen in.


WND depression poll

It’s interesting to see that an overwhelming number of WND’s readers – 88% at this point! – believe that the U.S. is headed for another Great Depression. I very much doubt they’re all readers of my column either. It would seem that neither the stock market rally nor the endless stream of happy talk from the politicians and the financial media has convinced many people of anything. Of course, what are mere words when banks like Citi are jacking up interest rates on credit cards to 29.99% and First Premier is charging 79.9% when depositors can’t get 2% on their savings accounts. Neither the Fed nor the politicians are going to be able to get the banks lending when no one in their right mind can afford to own a credit card. As Mike Shedlock points out, this isn’t a bad thing, it is in fact a necessary thing.

It’s pretty clear that those voting aren’t regular readers of my column, though, since 39% selected the option that says Obama is the most to blame. Obama isn’t even in the top 20 of those who are most to blame for the developing depression, although no doubt it will be a major part of his legacy. This event was a long time in the making and although Obama’s ill-considered actions have only made things worse, there was nothing he could have done to stop it. In fact, if he had acted properly, everyone would already be conscious that the depression is upon us and many people would be blaming him for that.

My answer is: “Yes, the Depression is, in fact, already here”. And even if the BEA avoids springing a UK-style surprise to the downside later this week, no pumped-up reports of “better-than-expected” 3.3% GDP growth later this week is going to change that.

I’ll be on the radio with our old friend Jerry Hughes discussing this and other things from 4-5 PM eastern. Listen in via the Internet broadcast.


History’s verdict

Economics and Moral Courage, by Llewellyn Rockwell, is one of the most intellectually inspiring articles I have ever read. It is a beautiful reminder of the transience of what we think is worldly success and accomplishment:

While Mises worked at the Chamber of Commerce because he was denied a paid position at the University of Vienna, [Hans] Mayer served as one of three full professors there, along with socialist Othmar Spann and Count Degenfeld-Schonburg. Of Spann, Mises wrote that “he did not teach economics. Instead he preached National Socialism.” Of the count, Mises wrote that he was “poorly versed in the problems of economics.”

It was Mayer who was the truly formidable one. Yet he was no original thinker. Mises wrote that his “lectures were miserable, and his seminar was not much better.” Mayer wrote only a handful of essays. But then, his main concern had nothing to do with theory and nothing to do with ideas. His focus was on academic power within the department and within the profession….

[Mayer] thrived before the Nazis. He thrived during the Nazi takeover. He helped the Nazis purge the Jews and the liberals from his department. Note that Mayer was no raging anti-Semite himself. His decision was a result of a series of discrete choices for position and power in the profession against truth and principle. For a time, this seemed harmless in some way. And then the moment of truth arrived and he played a role in the mass slaughter of ideas and those who held them.

Perhaps Mayer thought he had made the right choice. After all, he maintained his privileges and perks. And after the war, when the Communists came and took over the department, he thrived then too. He did all that an academic was supposed to do to get ahead, and achieved all the glory that an academic can achieve, regardless of the circumstances…. He played the game and that was all he did. He thought he won, but history has rendered a different judgment. He died in 1955. And then what happened? Justice finally arrived. He was instantly forgotten. Of all the students he had during his life, he had none after death. There were no Mayerians. Hayek reflected on the amazing development in an essay. He expected much to come out of the Wieser-Mayer school, but not much to come out of the Mises branch. He writes that the very opposite happened. Mayer’s machine seemed promising, but it broke down completely, while Mises had no machine at all and he became the leader of a global colossus of ideas.

If we look at Mark Blaug’s book Who’s Who in Economics, a 1,300-page tome, there is an entry for Menger, Hayek, Böhm-Bawerk, and, of course, Ludwig von Mises. The entry calls Mises “the leading twentieth-century figure of the Austrian School” and credits him with contributions to methodology, price theory, business-cycle theory, monetary theory, socialist theory, and interventionism. There is no mention of the price he paid in life, no mention of his courageous moral choices, no mention of the grim reality of a life moving from country to country to stay ahead of the state. He ended up being known only for his triumphs, about which not even Mises was ever made aware during his own life.

And guess what? There is no entry at all in this same book for Hans Mayer.

Mayer was the typical academic intellectual dwarf and richly deserves to be forgotten by history, but to me the ultimate villain of the piece is Friedrich von Wieser. Can you imagine having the opportunity to anoint either Ludwig von Mises or Joseph Schumpeter as your successor and then somehow deciding to choose neither of them? That has got to be the worst employment decision in the history of economics, and quite possibly academics. It may even have been the most calamitous if one thinks through how much unnecessary economic pain and devastation could have been prevented.

As brilliant and revolutionary as Mises was, I think I would have preferred to hire Schumpeter to head the department. His History shows that his perspective was unusually broad and saddling him with the bureaucratic responsibilities would have kept Mises free to focus entirely on research. Then Schumpeter could have gotten rid of Spann, hired Hayek, and you’d have had the greatest economics department in history despite its small size. And with that collection of highly functioning brainpower assembled in one place, it’s quite possible that they would have achieved sufficient prestige to prove capable of preventing the Keynesian ascension. What a tremendous opportunity for Mankind missed. And what an interestingly esoteric possibility for an alternate history novel….


WND column

The Return of the Great Depression

Eighty years ago this Thursday, the Great Depression began. While the great stock market crash of 1929 actually began on Oct. 24, it was the fourth day of the crash, Oct. 29, 1929, now known as Black Tuesday, that confirmed the severity of the four-day decline and alerted the world to the fact that not all was well with the U.S. economy. Those who appreciate historical rhythm will probably be aware that the most intense part of the subsequent depression was the four years from 1930 through 1933 that Milton Friedman described as the Great Contraction. Although 1929 marked the beginning of the Great Depression, it is important to understand that very few people, let alone politicians or economists, recognized at the time that what they were experiencing was the Great Depression.



RGD: release the hounds

This is the official starting gun for the Amazon book bomb for The Return of the Great Depression. If you’re interested in buying it, either for yourself or for someone else, I’d encourage you to order a copy from Amazon in the next 12 hours. Its initial ranking was 19,795 overall and 50 in Economic History, so that’s the starting point. If you’re keeping track of the ratings as well as your fantasy team, feel free to post them here as they change on an hourly basis. I think 1,000 and 10 would be an excellent objective; anything above that would be a smashing success.

By way of encouragement, I’d like the Dread Ilk to be the first to know about the dedicated book site, which was developed for RGD by WorldNetDaily. In addition to featuring a collection of my WND columns related to the economic crisis dating back to 2002, it also has some economic prediction trackings – including a rather nice one in 2008 that I’d completely forgotten – scheduled events, reviews, and an economics blog where I will be posting daily. The official publication date isn’t until Thursday, but I believe that WND intends to announce the book site tomorrow. Some additional content, such as YouTube videos, will likely appear on the site in the relatively near future. I also plan to make some of the spreadsheets I used in producing the charts for the book available for download from the site as well.

I very much appreciate the encouragement that people here have shown throughout the writing of RGD and I hope that you will find that it does not disappoint you. It is not a massive book, but it is most definitely a data-rich one. And we should probably all hope that it is a massively incorrect one.

UPDATE – Thank you very much if you participated in the Amazon launch last night. It was a huge success and significantly exceeded my hopes for it by reaching #90 overall and #5 in Economics. You even made it the #1 Mover and Shaker on Amazon! I appreciate the confidence you have shown in the book and will look forward to hearing your thoughts on it after it arrives and you read it.


MFL Week 6

118 Judean Front (5-1)
29 Black Mouth Curs (3-3)

85 Alamo City Spartans (4-2)
35 Valders Valkyries (4-2)

79 Winston Reverends (3-3)
49 Mounds View Meerkats (4-2)

104 Masonville Marauders (2-4)
64 Bane Silvers (2-4)

82 Burns Redbeards (2-4)
54 Greenfield Grizzlies (1-5)

VP-AFL

87.70 Masonville Marauders (5-1)
67.55 South Plains Storm (2-4)

103.25 Village Valkyries (4-2)
88.85 Oakies (2-4)

144.80 The Thunder (4-2)
99.60 Lesbian Dorito Night (5-1)

135.70 Cranberry Bogs (2-4)
62.60 COS McRays (1-5)

146.00 Supernaut’s Jihad (2-4)
126.25 Az Thunder Chickens (3-3)

This will serve as your open NFL thread for today. I know you’re all as excited about Michael Crabtree’s debut as I am. I have to confess to being very nervous about what Big Ben may be able to do against a Winfield-less Vikings secondary. Fortunately, Pittsburgh offensive line is pretty bad, so the big question today appears to be if the Vikings front four can get to the quarterback before the secondary collapses.


The NYT attempts to butch up Obama

Yeah, not so much:

The suspicion flared in recent weeks — and not for the first time — after President Obama was criticized by women’s advocates and liberal bloggers for hosting a high-level basketball game with no female players. The president, after all, is an unabashed First Guy’s Guy. Since being elected, he has demonstrated an encyclopedic knowledge of college hoops on ESPN, indulged a craving for weekend golf, expressed a preference for adopting a “big rambunctious dog” over a “girlie dog” and hoisted beer in a peacemaking effort.

I can’t wait until they try to dress him in a leather motorcycle jacket and put him on a Harley. It will be Dukakis-in-a-tank times ten. Love him or loathe him, George W. Bush was a guy’s guy. I despised the man and his disastrous presidency, but I can’t honestly say that I’d object to him coming over to watch the game with the guys. Whereas you know Obama would prefer be in the kitchen drinking white zinfandel and exchanging arugula recipes with the women.

This piece tells you more about the alienation of the New York Times from all things masculine than it does about the Obama administration. It reminds me of the time that the Chilliette’s girlfriends from San Francisco were concerned that her Scandinavian computer programmer fiance was “too macho” If Obama was a real guy’s guy, he’d respond by inviting some of the women who have been critical of him to the next basketball game, then blowing them off the court. And then, in a month or two, hosting a game of tackle football in the snow.