Green shoots redux

The IMF’s Lagarde announces “economic spring is in the air“:

A couple of weeks ago, I sat on the speakers’ podium during the opening panel of the Euromoney Bond Investors’ Congress in London. Together with leading industry experts, including senior ratings agencies’ officials, we engaged in a detailed discussion of the contentious aspects of the Greek debt debacle and the fate of the eurozone.

The audience was “top drawer; the room packed with 500 of the world’s biggest bond market participants; the combined assets under management measured in the trillions of dollars.

“Who thinks the upcoming Greek bail-out will be the last, drawing a line under the eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis?” asked the senior Euromoney staffer chairing the panel. “Put your hands up”.

Delivered with a serious demeanour, this was exactly the right question. So deadly was the inquiry, and so germane, that the mood in the room grew uneasy, barely camouflaged by an outbreak of coughing. Scanning this ultra-influential audience, I saw rows of delegates cowed, keeping their eyes locked forwards but staring down slightly, not daring to look elsewhere.

Not a single hand was raised. Not a single hand among hundreds of the world’s leading bond market practitioners was stirred to support a debt swap now presented as the key to the world economy shaking off the post sub-prime torpor and taking us into the sun-lit uplands of sustainable global growth.

On Friday, Greece pressed ahead with the largest sovereign debt restructuring in history. By “securing adequate participation” from the private sector, Athens avoided a big, disorderly default in late March. Holders of €172bn (£143bn) of the €206bn of eligible bonds agreed to take part in the write-down, or 83.5pc. Participation has since risen to 95.7pc after the Greek government triggered retrospective “collective action clauses”, forcing objecting investors to play ball.

This deal was “voluntary”, in the words of one market wag, “in the same way confessions were voluntary during the Spanish Inquisition”. In other words, unless this deal was agreed, bond-holders faced ending-up with nothing at all. Under the current terms, investors swap their bonds for new ones worth 53.5pc less and with easier repayment terms for Greece.

So, Greece has defaulted, despite all of the assurances to the contrary. So, the next question is, who is next? And, of course, how long until Germany pulls the plug on the EU project. Also, there is this to consider: “With the addition of the new IMF/EU loans of $172 billion and the revelation of the guaranteed debt at $107 billion Greece now has $279 billion of new and hidden debts.”


Libertarianism in one country

It’s too late for the USA, but from a theoretical perspective, Steve Sailer is correct about the impossibility of using liberty to lead by engaged example:

It’s time for us good guys to take a lesson in prudence from the bad guys. As you may recall, Trotsky and Stalin had a little falling out. Trotsky wanted to pursue “permanent worldwide revolution.” In contrast, Stalin thought it wiser to concentrate on “revolution in one country,” and only pick off buffer states as circumstances allowed. Stalin won the debate with Trotsky through the penetrating power of his logic (and ice pick), and went on to be the most enduringly successful of the 20th Century’s sizable cast of monsters.

This is what libertarians must realize: There is staggeringly too much inequality in the world for America’s love affair with capitalism to survive importing massive amounts of it.

As my Southern Baptist pastor used to say, it is much easier to pull someone down than it is to lift someone up. Free trade and open borders have turned out to be nearly as significant factors in the American decline as increased government spending and women’s suffrage. None of which, of course, were as important as the establishment of the third central bank, but it is worth noting these things in the process of the ongoing decline and fall in the hopes that future generations will turn out to be wiser than we were.

Just as many of the arguments that pervade our political debate today were presaged one hundred, and sometimes one thousand years ago, we can reasonably expect politicians of the far future to be arguing over whether free trade with the aliens in the Gar Zephrod sector will be of benefit to the economy or not. And we can also expect that leftist equalitarians of the far future will be shocked when the carnivorous Hleetongs of Xpicol IV, who were permitted to settle en masse among the posthuman colonists of New New York, begin devouring their neighbors.


Mailvox: Why they hate

Feminists absolutely hate this blog, although not for the reasons they claim. It’s not because I hate women, because I don’t, or because I openly display contempt for women, although I do. It’s not because I’m afraid of strong independent women, because I don’t fear unicorns either, or because I don’t believe in sexual equality, even though I don’t.

The real reason they hate this blog, and fear it, is because they understand on some level that it is convincing. A ruthless commitment to logic and truth tends to be persuasive over time because the human mind can only stand so much cognitive dissonance before it either begins to break down or accept the observable truth. And there is nothing that feminists fear so much as women being exposed to the unvarnished truth and seeing through the vast accumulation of the Sisterhood’s many lies.

SarahsDaughter comments:

The worst challenge to our marriage occurred three years ago. Looking back at it, I am so disappointed in myself that leaving him entered my mind. And again I was reminded that my replacement was out there. They (the replacements) are quite eager to proclaim their availability. In a desire to fix our problems, I went to a psychologist. He completely agreed with me, offered no valuable advice, and creeped me out. My husband suggested I start reading this crazy, misogynist (my words, at first) blog (VP). Really, I’d like to tell you that my faith, relationship with God, profound books, and wisdom made the difference in how I deal with conflict. I’d be lying. It was because of men and women on VP speaking of logic and shaming the irrational nature of women that I began a journey to root out feminism in my thoughts and truly understand and accept the vows I made before God.

While I don’t write this blog for anyone but myself, I’m always pleased to hear that others consider it to be in some way beneficial to themselves as well, particularly when it helps them break out of the intellectual chains that have been holding them mentally captive. We all have them. We are unthinking Republicans who believe God blesses the USA despite its corporate abjuration of Him, we are equalitarians who believe in many equalities that have never been observed in the wild or in captivity. We are science fetishists who have never noticed that there is no method in the peer reviewed madness. We are progressives against progress, feminists without femininity and Christians who believe Christ sins for us.

But whatever the chains are, they can be broken.

I am under no illusion that I am always correct. But the challenges that others offer, particularly the serious and intelligent challenges, help me continually refine and strengthen my positions, which is why I particularly appreciate those critics who are able to force me to rethink my assumptions as well as my conclusions. And as for the anklebiters and those who harbor vehement hate for the blog, I would only be concerned if such intellectual cripples admired it.


Team Calvin: Question Five

EE. “YOU SHALL LOVE THE LORD YOUR GOD WITH ALL YOUR HEART, AND WITH ALL YOUR SOUL, AND WITH ALL YOUR STRENGTH, AND WITH ALL YOUR MIND ; AND YOUR NEIGHBOR AS YOURSELF.” (Luke 10:27)

Now large crowds were going along with Him; and He turned and said to them, “If anyone comes to Me, and does not hate his own father and mother and wife and children and brothers and sisters, yes, and even his own life, he cannot be My disciple. (Luke 14:25, 26)

How do you reconcile the Second Great Command with Jesus’ statement about hating one’s father and mother, etc.?

A) Jesus contradicts Himself
B) Hate != hate
C) One verse is hyperbole
D) Other

There are two ways to reconcile it. My assumption is that the verses about hating everyone is hyperbole. However, it is also possible to reconcile the two verses by noting that the Second Great Command is in response to the question “what must I do to inherit eternal life?” while the statement about hate concerns what one must do to become Jesus’s disciple. Since “inheriting eternal life” is not necessarily synonymous with “becoming a disciple”, the two passages cannot be regarded as being definitively in contradiction.

But, as I said, I incline towards the hyperbole explanation. And with this answer, I conclude my part of the Team Calvin Challenge. I lead it to you, the reader, to determine if you believe that these five answers show me to be guilty of the same contortions we have previously observed in Team Calvin’s various interpretations of Scripture.

Team Calvin: Question 1
Team Calvin: Question 2
Team Calvin: Question 3
Team Calvin: Question 4


The debt that should not be

Student loan debt, which cannot be discharged in bankruptcy, is nearly twice as bad as previously reported:

The latest report by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows how dire the financial situation has become for college students with outstanding loans.

According to numbers released by the bank this week, 1 in 4 borrowers with outstanding student loans had a past-due balance in the third quarter of 2011. Those figures are higher than most previous estimates because, in its recent calculations, the New York Fed deliberately left out borrowers who are temporarily exempt from making payments, like those still in school or within the usual six-month period after graduation when they’re not required to make payments. By removing those borrowers from the equation, the percentage of past-due student loan balances sits at 27% of all outstanding student loans….

The estimated student loan balance in the third quarter last year was $870 billion, which increased 2.1% from the previous quarter and is more than both Americans’ total credit card balance ($693 billion) and auto loan balance ($730 billion). About $580 billion of the total is owed by Americans who are younger than 40.

That debt isn’t going to be repaid, not when “almost half of student loan borrowers are either deferring their student loan payments or are in forbearance”.

If you think the global economic contraction is over, you’re not paying attention. The Fed and the other central banks are still fighting their desperate delaying game, but once more, the cracks are starting to show.


Mailvox: whither post-Jobs Apple?

LH wonders about the future of Apple:

I’ve noticed several news articles and radio broadcasts over the past week talking about a new Ipad coming out. Today I saw it’s official. Didn’t Apple do better at keeping product upgrades under wraps until the announcement prior to Jobs passing? Do you see the techno-facist facade failing?

Yes, I think the Eviler Empire is in the very early stages of collapsing. The screw-ups are small, but significant. They couldn’t even come up with a name for it? The killer new feature is a super high-resolution? I’ve worked in an industry that reached its natural limits – graphics cards – and the resolution gambit particularly is a classic sign of a product category that has peaked. Unless Apple manages to reinvent itself again, which would appear to be a very difficult trick without the evil genius that was Jobs, I think they will continue to be profitable, but cease to be dominant and they will become just another big technology company within 10 years.


Team Calvin: Question Four

DD. Lamentations 3:31-33

For the Lord will not cast off forever, but, though he cause grief, he will have compassion according to the abundance of his steadfast love; for he does not afflict from his heart or grieve the children of men.

Vox, does the Lord cause grief? If so, does he act against his will?

Yes, on occasion, when it is necessary in order to fulfill His grand design of Man’s salvation and the reclamation of a fallen world. This does not mean He is the cause of all grief.

No, He does not act against His will, although since He acts against things He previously willed, such as when He removed Saul’s kingship and gave it to David, it is obvious that His will is both dynamic and responsive to the consequences of Man’s free will.

Team Calvin: Question 1
Team Calvin: Question 2
Team Calvin: Question 3


Alaric inside the walls

The UK anticipates the USA’s descent into barbarism and the dawn of aristocracy:

Walking home from school, my two eldest sons, then aged four and five, were chomping their way through Rice Krispie cakes bought at a school sale, while I pushed their baby brother in a pram beside them. Typically for 3.30pm in the part of North-West London where we live, the pavements were awash with children and pushchairs. This area, with its wide tree-lined avenues, smart family homes and good schools, is hugely popular with young families….

We’d just left our local newsagent’s, magazine firmly in my little son’s hand, when we suddenly found ourselves in the middle of a 12-strong gang of hooded youths who were chasing a girl who looked no older than 14. One grabbed her and started battering her with an umbrella, but she managed to get away. Then the youths gave chase, throwing bottles and shouting obscenities. It looked as though they meant to kill her….

Grabbing my sons and frantically pushing the pram with one hand, I rushed to get them home as quickly as possible. Then to my horror, Zach broke free of my grip and blindly ran back into what was now a full-on turf war. He’d dropped his magazine, which had been trampled underfoot, its pages scattered across the pavement. Oblivious to the mayhem, he attempted to gather it up as tears rolled down his cheeks. Terrified for him, I pulled the pram and my five-year-old back towards where Zach now stood rooted to the spot as more gang members came tearing up a side street.

I heard myself scream as a bottle skimmed Zach’s head, missing him by millimetres, glass smashing around his feet — later I found shards in his shoes. Then I did something I never thought I’d do: I ran, clutching my terrified children. In my panic, I lost control of the pram which swerved precariously and almost overturned twice.

Our cakes spilled out over the pavement. It was the wrong thing to do, of course. I’d drawn attention to my fleeing family, and a splinter group gave chase after us, calling out ‘get the whities’. Seeing this terrifying drama unfold before them, passers-by and locals sped up steps, pounded on front doors or sought protection in porches.

We reached our home and I released my screaming baby from his pram, which I left abandoned with our bags outside, and practically threw my boys inside the front door, locking it behind us — my legs had turned to jelly and breathlessness and searing chest pain convinced me I was having a heart attack.

Whether they like it or not, the white European people of the West are facing two ugly choices. Either start deportating the barbarians now or fight a brutal war later. Africans cannot be blamed for acting like Africans, Mexicans cannot be blamed for acting like Mexicans, and Arabs cannot be blamed for acting like Arabs. One simply shouldn’t be surprised when people who are not white Europeans do not act like white Europeans tamed by more than one thousand years of Western civilization. Why would they, and more importantly, why should they?

For little more than the fear of being called racist and in a futile attempt assuage the guilt for past centuries of colonialism, the people of the West have permitted their countries to be invaded by barbarians. Instead of civilizing the immigrants, as it was foolishly imagined, the immigrants have increasingly barbarized the nations they have invaded en masse. This should not have been a surprise, as the attempts to civilize them in their native lands had failed for hundreds of years.

The problem isn’t that Africans or Central Americans cannot ever be civilized or that there is a civilization gene, the problem is that like domesticating an animal species, civilizing an entire culture is a process that takes hundreds of years. Consider, for example, how long it took the barbarians of Britain and Germany to go from the naked pagan barbarism described by Julius Caesar to the heights of Christian civilization that produced Mozart and the chamber orchestras. The nations of the West doesn’t have that much time, especially when they can no longer serve as a strong and stable models, having invited the enervating peoples into their civilizations. Moreover, in addition to attempting to civilize the barbarians inside their borders rather than outside them, they are trying to do so without the benefit of Christianity, which historically played a powerful role in the civilization of the white European barbarians.

The woman in the article moved with her family out to the countryside to escape the hooded black barbarians of London. But the retreat of civilization cannot continue forever, as history shows the barbarians will simply expand their dysfunctional and parasitical cultures until they are forcibly stopped and turned back. Every civilization needs its Marius, its Qin Shi Huang, its Charles Martel, or will be overrun and die.

Feudalism and the age of aristocracy grew out of a need for protection. It is now becoming increasingly clear why the age of democracy is over and how the coming aristocracy is going to take shape and come to power.


Mailvox: omniderigistes

CM has two questions:

I find your anti-omni* arguments very compelling. It’s completely counter to everything I’ve been taught (Baptist upbringing, elder in the Reformed church, currently in Missouri-Synod Lutheran church).

Couple of simple questions for clarification:

1. I believe that God created time, and therefore must exist apart from it. So even if he’s _not_ omnipresent, he could insert himself into any location and any time whenever he wishes, making himself functionally omnipresent. Do you hold that God is a slave to an “external force” of time? If he is, wouldn’t that mean that he’s not the “ultimate force”?

2. If God is not omniscient, how does prophecy enter into your world-view? If you believe that it’s possible, how can God know what’s going to happen if he doesn’t “know all” at some level?

CM is making the same mistake in confusing capacity with action that Richard Dawkins makes in The God Delusion and which we see with regularity from Team Calvin. The fact that God “could insert himself into any location and any time whenever he wishes” doesn’t make him “functionally omnipresent”, but rather “potentially omnipresent”. This is the same difference and distinction that I draw between omniscience and voliscience, between God knowing everything at all times and God knowing whatever He decides He wants to know. As for the question, no, I don’t consider God to be a slave to the external force of time. For more thoughts on this, see the chapter on God as Game Designer in The Irrational Atheist.

As for prophecy, this is pretty simple. The fact that you don’t know everything doesn’t mean you don’t know something in advance, especially if you are the one who is arranging to make it happen. There is absolutely no need for omniscience to support the concept of accurate Divinely-inspired prophecy.


The cure for Curie-Hultgreen Syndrome

It’s a little tempting to point and laugh, but really, Miss Stewart should be commended for her good sense:

Britain’s first female Red Arrows pilot is to move to a ground role after two of her flying colleagues were killed in separate tragedies. Flight Lieutenant Kirsty Stewart, 33, is to be reassigned after the ‘tragic events’ of 2011 had an ‘adverse effect’ on her, a defence source said….

A defence source said: ‘Not many people outside of the Red Arrows will understand the pressure and busy schedule that the team endure through a normal season. These factors have been exacerbated by the tragic events of 2011. This has had an adverse effect on Kirsty and has resulted in the Royal Air Force deciding that it would be more appropriate for the individual and the service if Kirsty is reassigned.’

Her superiors should be commended too, for reassigning the young woman before she crashes, burns, and ends up another pointless human sacrifice on the altar of female equality.