Author: VD

Kaiser on the war drums

An unexpected suggestion of Harvard as coal mine canary:

a few days ago, Harvard University divested themselves entirely out of all their Israeli investments. Why did they do that? In my view they anticipate that the United States will not be behind Israel when it will attack Iran. The United States will do to Israel what they did to South Vietnam, which is to say that they will abandon Israel. Nobody will support them. So the shekel and the Tel Aviv stock exchange are probably gonna be marked down by 80-90%. Harvard University obviously understands this. That’s why they dumped every shekel-based security they have in their portfolio, because that exchange is gonna go belly-up. Hold onto your matzahs, it’s gonna be a bumpy ride.

I have no idea if Israel actually will attack Iran over its newly operational nuclear reactor, but given the Obama administration’s proclivity to favor Islamic countries, it does appear increasingly likely that the present US government would be inclined to sit out any Israeli-Iranian conflict.

And your point?

The New York Times shows why it is a rapidly fading force in printing the single most stupid statement ever to appear in a mainstream newspaper:

The Justice Department decided last week not to bring charges against Tom DeLay, whose unethical conduct represented a modern low among Congressional leaders. The decision is a reminder that some of Washington’s worst big-money practices remain either legal or far too difficult to prosecute. Mr. DeLay, the Texas Republican who had been the House majority leader, crowed that he had been “found innocent.” But many of Mr. DeLay’s actions remain legal only because lawmakers have chosen not to criminalize them.

Emphasis added. I note that actions such as selling cocaine and whipping slaves remain illegal only because lawmakers have chosen to criminalize them. It is interesting that the New York Times is so much more upset about a Republican lawmaker’s admittedly legal actions than it is about the blatantly illegal fraud that is still being committed by the banking industry on a daily basis.

WND column

One Year Later

Neither markets nor economies proceed in straightforward linear fashion. But they do tend to unfold in recognizable historical patterns. While technical analysis often appears to be little more than geometric witchdoctory, the time to sit up and pay attention is when the technical analysis is supported by the observable economic situation.

Self-serving economists in the financial media always like to pretend after the fact that no one can reasonably foresee economic catastrophe on the horizon. But the reality is that it is usually quite obvious if you know what to look for. For example, the seeds of the financial crisis of September 2008 were already apparent to practically everyone who was paying attention in March of that year. In like manner, it has been clear from the start that if the two financial stimulus plans of 2008 and 2009 were not successful in kick-starting the American economy, it would finally have to be admitted that the country is locked in a severe state of economic contraction that is most accurately described as a depression.

In which we hope it won’t kill him

A fellow writer sends along a link with the following note: “Today is Ray Bradbury’s 90th birthday. As online tributes to him go, nothing I could ever do or say could hold a candle to this one.”

He was right. There wasn’t. Anyhow, it’s heartening to see the kids are enthusiastic about reading quality fiction these days. Happy Birthday, Mr. Bradbury!

The badge gang (Mexican edition)

Do you honestly believe American police are any less corrupt?

The killers came for Mayor Cavazos in the early hours of Aug. 16 when seven SUV’s rolled up and men in police uniforms descended on his palatial home. Servants stood back terrified, as their boss was forced away at gunpoint. On Aug. 18, his corpse was dumped on a nearby road. There was a mercy of sorts in the manner of his killing – shot dead with two bullets in the head and one in the chest, and spared the mutilation and rape inflicted on so many other victims. The following day, hundreds of residents wept over his coffin in Santiago’s central plaza, lining the stairs up to the church with candles and holding signs calling for peace.

Then on Aug. 20, more disturbing news broke. State agents arrested six of the mayor’s own police officers and said they confessed to involvement in the murder.

In fact, given the draconian seizure laws that permit American police to arrest money and keep a percentage of it, there is a sound basis for arguing that American police forces are even more structurally corrupt than their Mexican counterparts. They may not be murdering any mayors, but then, they make even more money without having to do wetwork for hire. The American history of Prohibition strongly suggests that main reason for the insane violence on the Mexican side of the border and the police corruption on the American side is that some drugs are deemed illegal. Legalizing all drugs would eliminate both the violence and the corruption, which of course is why most police oppose drug legalization so strongly. It would mean the end of their drug war-financed gravy train, which is worth around $450 million$1.58 billion per year to the LOCAL law enforcement agencies of the country.

No wonder there are no jobs

I was a little surprised to discover that there are 43 million more people in the USA in 2010 than there were in 1997. 3.3 million more people per year is non-trivial. It seems to me that the people who are most concerned about the environment should be more militantly anti-immigration than anyone. And yet, you can pretty much count on a rabid tree-hugger to be enthusiastic about the ongoing third-world migration.

The myth of the cougar

Science explodes an old spinsters tale:

The study of online dating, by the University of Wales Institute, Cardiff (UWIC), found men and women are still rather traditional when it comes to searching for their ideal partner. Women generally seek an older and, therefore hopefully, wealthier man, according to the UWIC study. Men, on the other hand, desire a young and attractive female, and often prefer a much younger partner as they themselves age.

One can hear Roissy cackling already. In one bit of anecdotal evidence, I got a call from a single 40-something friend of mine. He was on his way to a date… with a 23 year-old woman.

Living beyond your means

This is an extreme example of the cash-out game, but it shouldn’t be hard to understand why the US economy is so completely hopeless as a result:

It’s obvious from looking through the property records that many borrowers supplemented their lifestyles with regular trips to the home ATM machine. The regularity and the size of these withdrawals is astonishing. It also explains much about why houses are so popular in California. If owning real estate gives you the opportunity to obtain hundreds of thousands of dollars for doing absolutely nothing, ownership will be highly desired; in fact, it becomes the primary reason people buy homes. Californian’s live in their own personal ATM machines.

The owners of today’s featured property paid $441,000 on 4/25/1991. I don’t have their original mortgage information, but it is likely that they put 20% down ($88,200) and borrowed $352,800.

* On 5/27/1997 they obtained a stand-alone second for $50,000.
* On 12/7/1998 they refinanced their first mortgage for $387,500.
* On 3/26/1999 they got a $47,500 stand-alone second.
* On 12/28/2000 they refinanced with a $441,000 first mortgage and crossed the threshold of borrowing more than they paid.
* On 3/31/2004 they refinanced with a $536,250 first mortgage.
* On 10/5/2004 they obtained a $628,000 first mortgage.
* On 11/30/2005 they refinanced with a $686,250 Option ARM with a 1.5% teaser rate.
* On 5/3/2007 they obtained a second mortgage for $15,764.
* On 7/3/2007, after witnessing the above patter of serial refinancing, World Savings Bank brilliantly loaned them $788,000 in an Option ARM.

Total property debt is $788,000 plus negative amortization and missed payments. Total mortgage equity withdrawal is $435,200 including their down payment. Total squatting time was minimal as the bank moved quickly to evict these squatters.

The important thing to understand from this is that there is no such thing as “home ownership” with a mortgage. It’s just renting from a bank. The problem is that debt is intrinsically inflationary, (inflationistas take note regarding the implications of this in a debt-deleveraging environment), so the willingness of others to take on debt severely harms the ability of more prudent individuals to make purchases without debt.

On a related note, watch for panic over the UNEXPECTED collapse in home sales next week. Now that the federal credits have expired, Texas monthly home sales have fallen 25% to the lowest July level since 1997.

The power of hypergamy

Roissy moonlights as a romance advisor:

She wants to know whether to stay with her doting, all-around niceguy boyfriend or to dump him to take one more stab at trading up in the hothouse dating market of Manhattan.

(rubbing hands)

She’s come to the right place!

Reading between the lines what we have here is a girl who likes, perhaps loves, her boyfriend, but has recently been propositioned for a date by a higher status man (the CTO of [major bank]). Her sexual market options suddenly thrown into stark relief, her hypergamous instinct is kicking in and she is contemplating, via the sounding board provided by the residents of the stately countryside Chateau, whether her boyfriend is really all that she thinks he is, and whether her ego isn’t as big as it deserves to be.

Gentlemen, behold the awesome power of female hypergamy. You can be the best boyfriend in the world, (and judging by her description of him, he sounds like a stand-up guy with plenty of positive traits), but if a higher ranking man comes along and shows some interest in your girlfriend (or wife!), you can bet your last penny she will be unable to resist pondering the opportunity to trade up and the concomitant reevaluation of her own market worth that goes along with attention from higher status suitors.

I have to admit, this is a remarkable lesson in the reality of female hypergamy for the betas, deltas, and gammas of the world. This cold and rational calculation is how women who are capable of seeing beyond tomorrow evaluate long term relationships; their emotional, logic-free romantic front that they present doesn’t run all the way down or even particularly deep.

Roissy’s advice to her is sound, if slightly cruel. If she gives into temptation and breaks up with her boyfriend in order to grab for the brass ring of a CTO – stifles laughter at the female obsession with corporate titles – she’s going to be pumped and dumped in short order. And, of course, I always recommend that men steer clear of women who are drawn to the big city in search of alphasadventure.

UPDATE – Apparently the girl is real but the email is not, or something like that. Sounds like bitter gamma revenge, but who knows. For what it’s worth….

Ahead of schedule

And here I thought the first media references to Great Depression 2.0 wouldn’t occur until the fourth quarter:

The fake “recovery” was nice while it lasted, says famous apocalyptic forecaster Gerald Celente, founder of the Trends Research Institute. But now the fun’s over, and we’re headed for what Celente describes as the “Greatest Depression.” Specifically, the always startling Celente says the country is headed for rising unemployment, poverty, and violent class warfare as the government efforts to keep the economy going begin to fail.

The interesting thing isn’t that Celente is saying this. He’s been warning about this for a while. The interesting thing is that someone like Henry Blodgett is finally paying attention to him.