#Arkhaven INFOGALACTIC #Castalia House
Peter Magyar was inaugurated today and the new government celebrated. The “dancing minister” performed his signature moves.
If your “leaders” are performative attention-seekers, they are ticket-takers and Clown World owns them, in one way or another.
The War of the Epstein Alliance can be safely regarded as lost now, as the Israelis are already trying to wash their hands of responsibility for the USA attacking Iran and defending Israel despite the war being observably against the interests of the American people.
US President Donald Trump made the decision to attack Iran after his meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago in late December 2025, but the foundations for that decision had been laid long beforehand, and much of them had nothing to do with Israel or Netanyahu. Conversations with a long list of diplomatic and security officials, Israelis, Americans and diplomats from the region, reveal a clear picture: The man in the White House had a top-tier strategic goal, to topple or decisively weaken the regime in Iran.
Moreover, reports published, among others, in The New York Times and The Washington Post, claiming that Netanyahu had “dragged” Trump and the US into war, partly by arguing that the regime could be brought down, are plainly wrong. The conversations I held indicate that at least some senior Trump administration officials, and Trump himself, were the ones who assessed that the regime could be toppled, while the Israeli team presented a far more cautious assessment on this issue.
A note: Such reporting by the two newspapers mentioned above was not surprising. Both took an anti-war line, consistent with their unfavorable coverage of the Trump administration and Netanyahu’s policies. In this case, according to a US official, they were fed by sources in certain departments at the State Department and the War Department who dislike what they see as the overly close ties between Jerusalem and Washington, certainly when it comes to Middle East policy…
The fall of the regime in Iran would greatly ease the disarming of Hezbollah and the dismantling of its status in Lebanon, leave Hamas and Islamic Jihad without financial backing, and most likely bring down the Houthi regime in Yemen as well. But even before the war, and especially now, it is clear that this is an overly ambitious goal, certainly in the short term. The current focus, on the one hand, is preventing an agreement that would allow the regime to recover militarily, certainly on the nuclear and missile issues. Without an agreement, Israel supports further intensification of sanctions and economic warfare against Iran until it is completely paralyzed, alongside readiness for the resumption of the war in the near term, this time with a focus on strategic targets such as power stations.
The pointing of the finger at Israel as the party that pushed the US into the strike is therefore only partially correct. In practice, this was a purely American decision, based on an understanding that the regime poses a threat to America and the entire West, and certainly to US interests in the Middle East. Israel assisted with precise intelligence, on the nuclear and missile programs, on Iranian attacks against American targets, and on what happened during and after the protests. The clear convergence of interests with the US is what brought about the joint war, even if its end remains unclear.
I find this version of events less interesting for its attempt at revising history and more useful for indicating that at least some of the parties responsible for the war are attempting to avoid being held culpable for it, which is a very reliable indicator that the war failed to accomplish their goals and is expected to be considered something that is worthy of blame rather than praise.
This, in turn, indicates that everyone involved in prosecuting it is going to be highly motivated to bring it to an end sooner rather than later. The last oil tankers have already delivered their loads. The economic bite of the failed war is only beginning to be felt, and the blame game hasn’t even truly begun yet. The political fallout from it will not be insignificant, as the massive turnover in UK politics very likely demonstrates.
UPDATE: Local National Guard HIMARS artillery unit deployed to ME for a year is home now – they literally fired off everything they could find, painted so many fire mission marks on their launchers that they’re no longer camouflage, and have now sent 90% of their people home. The 10% that remain are working on getting the broken-down launchers out of the desert and onto ships back to the US. This gives me confidence that the war is over by default, and we are out of ammunition.
Once more, the Douhetians are proven wrong about the strategic capabilities of airpower:
A confidential CIA analysis delivered to administration policymakers this week concludes that Iran can survive the U.S. naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more severe economic hardship, four people familiar with the document said, a finding that appears to raise new questions about President Donald Trump’s optimism on ending the war.
The analysis by the U.S. intelligence community, whose secret assessments on Iran have often been more sober than the administration’s public statements, also found that Tehran retains significant ballistic missile capabilities despite weeks of intense U.S. and Israeli bombardment, three of the people familiar with it said.
Iran retains about 75 percent of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers and about 70 percent of its prewar stockpiles of missiles, a U.S. official said. The official said there is evidence that the regime has been able to recover and reopen almost all of its underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles and even assemble some new missiles that were nearly complete when the war began.
Airpower never accomplishes one-tenth of what its advocates say it will, because airpower never does even one-tenth the damage that the after-action assessors think it did. Desert Storm was the salient ultimate proof of this, as Col. Douglas Macgregor admitted that an Iraqi tank battalion that was bombed for 30 days in the desert was discovered after the war to have survived with 85 percent of its vehicles still operational.
The average US tank battalion couldn’t survive with 85 percent viability after thirty days of operation on the basis of its maintenance issues alone.
In case you haven’t noticed, despite their relative lack of air forces, both Hezbollah and the Ukrainian armed forces are still in the fight after years of war.
Fandom Pulse has an excellent, in-depth review of Killing Commendatore by Haruki Murakami, a book I like very much, albeit a review with which I don’t entirely agree even when it’s about the book:
I want to praise one specific thing about the translation as a whole, because it has been under-discussed and it is magnificent. The Commendatore’s voice.
The Commendatore in the Japanese speaks in a way that is instantly recognizable and deeply strange. He uses atashi for “I” — a first-person pronoun associated with women and with a certain old-fashioned formality. He addresses the narrator as shokun, “gentlemen,” in the plural. He says de wa aranai instead of the standard de wa nai for negation — an archaic, almost ceremonial form. He is funny. He is imperious. He is two feet tall and he sounds like a retired general who has been shrunk in the wash and is not entirely displeased about it.
This voice is, in principle, untranslatable. There is no English pronoun that does what atashi does. There is no English form of address that does what shokun does. There is no English negation that does what de wa aranai does. And yet Gabriel and Goossen — and I assume Bloom deserves credit here too — found an English for the Commendatore that works. The Commendatore in English is formal without being stiff, archaic without being ridiculous, funny without trying to be funny. He calls the narrator “my friends.” He speaks in complete, slightly ornate sentences. He has dignity. He is the best thing in the translation and I would read seven hundred pages of him alone.
I said at the beginning of this review that Killing Commendatore is one of the three peaks of Murakami’s career. I want to end by saying what I mean by that, because it is the kind of claim that requires defense.
The Wind-Up Bird Chronicle is the peak of Murakami the storyteller — the novel in which his ability to pull a reader into an impossible world and keep them there for six hundred pages reaches its fullest expression. 1Q84 is the peak of Murakami the architect — the novel in which his ability to construct parallel narratives and hold them in tension over a thousand pages is most fully achieved. Killing Commendatore is the peak of Murakami the artist — the novel in which his lifelong preoccupation with what it means to make things, to create something from nothing, to open a door in a wall that has no door, is most directly and most movingly addressed.
It is also the most personal of the three, and the most vulnerable. There is a passage near the end in which the narrator realizes that the painting he has been working on throughout the novel is finished, and that it is good, and that it is the first good thing he has ever made.
While I can’t really testify to the lack of the sense of oku in the second half of the novel, I did notice that the translator’s voice had changed the one and only time I read it. Now I feel as if I’ve got to read it again. I also think that it’s a bit strange to complain about the lack of depth of the female characters when the female characters are, in this particular book, entirely beside the point; a book that dedicates sufficient space to fully-developing the painter’s faithless wife is not going to be a book about painting, and besides, the book is already 700 pages.
But it is an excellent review, particularly in how it says so much about the novel without giving away anything at all. And I really can’t expect to entirely agree with a review by a reviewer whose favorite Murakami novel is The Wind-Up Bird Chronicle, since mine is A Wild Sheep’s Chase.
Anyhow, I’m going to see if we can get a copy of my translation of The Secret Scrolls of Naruto reviewed at some point in the future.
If a ship is hit by a missile in the Gulf of Oman, but the Department of War denies it, does it make a sound?
The gap between what we’re told and what actually happened would appear to be growing.
The Devil Mouse is every bit as awful as you imagine and more:
Dozens of workers from multiple cruise ships that docked in San Diego, including one from the Disney Cruise Line, were found to be in possession of or involved with the distribution of child pornography, according to authorities.
Officers with U.S. Customs and Border Protection boarded eight cruise ships between April 23 and April 27 and interviewed 28 workers as part of an ongoing investigation, federal officials said in a statement.
During the interviews, officers confirmed that 27 of the 28 individuals had either received, sent, possessed or transported child pornography, according to the statement.
A Disney Cruise Line ship was among those that were boarded and where employees were detained in connection with the investigation.
If we’re going to treat corporations like humans and permit them human rights, perhaps it’s time to start punishing them like humans too.
The headline is the way in which Labour was destroyed in the local elections in the United Kingdom. But the real news is the continuing demolition of the Conservative Party, which is being rightly rejected by Reform voters in response to its refusal to stop immigration and start repatriating the invaders.
The final results aren’t in yet, as only one-half of the local council elections have reported yet, but with both Labour and the Tories below the LibDems and Reform nearly doubling the Conservative vote, it’s very clear that the direction the two major parties have been dragging the UK since the Tony Blair years has been a very unpopular and antidemocratic one.
UPDATE: The results are even worse for Labour than had been anticipated.
The Red Wall Labour MP summed up the mood. ‘It’s not carnage. It’s f***ing carnage.’ The results are still coming in. But it’s not going to get any better. The pattern is set. In Labour’s former Northern heartlands, the party has not been defeated. Or even routed. It’s simply ceased to exist. The only councils where the party has been able to cling on are where only a third of the seats were up for election.
Since JDA is too frightened to discuss the incredible expose I’ve got on Gene Roddenberry and the occult tonight, I’ll be streaming a solo DARKHAVEN NIGHT tonight. And among other things, we’ll be discussing a) the origin story of your favorite Dark Lord and b) Larry Correia’s threatened foray into Romantasy, as covered by Fandom Pulse.
Why would he defend a smut genre when it has no place in a trade marketplace like Amazon? Selling well does not equate value, and Romantasy has objectively destroyed the fantasy genre, and pushed male readers out of bookstores, as Correia has noted in his complaint that he’s not #1.
One can tell it’s not about the values of what books have quality or anything, but simply about what sells with Correia, as he posits making his own romantasy series in a passive-aggressive response afterward. While it’s a funny idea, it’s likely one that wouldn’t go well for Correia if he did decide to write these.
#Bestselling Military Sci-Fi, Political Philosophy, and Genetic Sciences author Vox Day commented on whether this tack would work, “Anyone who’s ever read Larry’s books knows that he doesn’t know the first thing about the realities of male-female relations.”
It’s true that romantasy readers would not likely enjoy Larry Correia’s self-insert Gary Stu beta male character “getting the girl” over the slick alpha as he wrote in his Monster Hunter International series. If anything, they probably would be disappointed that the female character didn’t end up with the monsters he hunts.
Don’t get me wrong, I, personally, would very much love to see Larry Correia write a romantasy novel. I think it would be absolutely hilarious. I’m also confident that women would hate, hate, hate it with the passion of ten thousand sexy vampires staked out to burn to a crisp under a hot afternoon sun.
I mean, what woman doesn’t fantasize about a regular, competent nice guy who is too intimidated by female beauty to pursue women directly, but tries to gain their attention by showing how he is pure of heart and good at his job.
And remember, just like Covid vaccine, most of your friends and family are going to fall for this one. It’s going to be a lot more convincing, and a lot more “proven” than any of the Covid nonsense ever was. And the social and economic pressure to submit to it is going to be even harsher.
The Birth of a Unified Cosmic Spirituality
The convergence produces a religion with six defining features:
- Universalism — all paths lead to the same cosmic source.
- Evolutionary spirituality — humanity is ascending to a higher state.
- Extraterrestrial cosmology — the universe is populated with guiding intelligences.
- Technological mysticism — miracles are framed as advanced science.
- Mandatory unity — religious exclusivity is dangerous.
- Allegiance to the Beast — loyalty becomes a spiritual duty.
This is not secularism.
This is hyper‑religion — mystical, cosmic, scientific, and compulsory.It is the religion of the world.
The Continual: The One Faith That Cannot Be Absorbed
Every religion can be reframed as extraterrestrial.
Except one.
The Continual — the Christ‑only covenant witness — cannot be merged, reinterpreted, or absorbed. It is exclusive, covenantal, and rooted in the identity of the Messiah.
It stands outside the cosmic narrative.
It refuses to bow to the universal myth.
It cannot be rewritten.Therefore:
- it becomes the enemy of unity,
- the threat to human evolution,
- the obstacle to global harmony.
This is why it must be outlawed.
This is why the saints become the target.
This is why the Beast makes war.
The Continual is the stone the builders reject — again.
The Final Shape of the Global Religion
The convergence produces a system with:
- One narrative — cosmic origins and cosmic destiny.
- One interpreter — the False Prophet.
- One embodiment — the Antichrist.
- One unifying myth — humanity joining the cosmic family.
- One forbidden belief — exclusive devotion to Christ.
This is the religion of the world.
This is the Empire That Never Ended, as Philip K. Dick described it. It survived the Romans, the Crusaders, the Conquistadors, and the Inquisitions. And the alien deception is going to be its next variant, perhaps even its final variant, although the history of failed apocalypses tends to testify otherwise.
Regardless, recognize it and reject it. In nomine Jesu.
Unlike the mainstream science orthodoxy, I don’t feel any need to avoid admitting when I got something fundamentally wrong, fixing the problem, and revising my conclusions. Which, of course, is why I’m working on the new appendices for the second edition of Probability Zero rather than trying to defend, rationalize, and justify the various mistakes I made in the first edition, which were mostly the result of relying upon the consensus numbers produced in 2005 rather than the 2025 update of them.
Claude Athos and I are now revising the Kimura’s Calculator paper from last week because our subsequent empirical work has identified a category error in how the selection-cost binding constraint was being used in it. The original paper presents the Calculator as a three-term framework in which the realized substitution rate equals the minimum of three serial constraints: the corrected input flux (Term 1), the polymorphism throughput ceiling (Term 2), and the selection-cost limit (Term 3). For sexual eukaryotes, Term 3 binds at approximately 10⁻¹², two to four orders of magnitude below Terms 1 and 2, which made it the headline result and drove the framework’s most dramatic predictions. The new validation work which uses Bergeron et al. (2023) on pedigree mutation rates and fossil-calibrated substitution rates for 55 vertebrate species exposed a fundamental problem that three-term construction.
The category error is this: Term 3 is derived from Haldane’s cost-of-substitution argument, which bounds the rate at which selection can drive adaptive fixations through a population given finite reproductive capacity. It is a constraint on selectively driven substitutions alone, not on total substitutions. The original Calculator paper treats Term 3 as a bound on total substitution rate and compares it against observed substitution rates from sequence divergence, but observed substitution rates include both neutral fixations (which are the great majority) and adaptive fixations (which are comparatively rare). Comparing Term 3 against total observed k is therefore comparing a bound on adaptive substitutions against a quantity that is mostly comprised of neutral substitutions. The two simply aren’t measuring the same thing. While the math of Term 3 is correct for the quantity to which it actually applies; my error was in interpreting its output as a constraint on total k. Once corrected, Term 3 still limits adaptive substitution rate at ~10⁻¹², but total substitution rate is only governed by Terms 1 and 2, which now falls in the 10⁻⁷ to 10⁻⁸ range that is consistent with the empirically observed rates.
The ramifications for our conclusions are significant but not catastrophic, and the revised picture is in some ways stronger than the original because it survives empirical scrutiny that the original would not. The textbook k = μ identity is still falsified — both directly (pedigree μ and phylogenetic k disagree by a median factor of 25 across 55 vertebrates) and structurally (the polymorphism throughput ceiling is exceeded by textbook μ for 95.4% of 173 animal species). The cancellation step in Kimura’s derivation still fails because N ≠ Nₑ in real populations, as Frankham cataloged thirty years ago. What has to be revised is the magnitude of the resulting recalibrations to molecular-clock divergence dates. The corrected framework predicts factor 10 corrections rather than factor 100,000 corrections, which still places significant divergences in substantially different time ranges than the textbook gives but doesn’t compress the entirety of evolutionary deep time the way the original Term 3 framing implied.
To put this in context, it means that the CHLCA event falls somewhere in the 250 kya to 1.3 Mya range rather than the 6.3 Mya presently assumed. But it cannot be as recent as the lower end of the 68 kya to 330 kya range that had orginally been calculated on the basis of the erroneous calculator.
The result of this retraction and revision is that the central critique of neutral theory survives and is now backed by two methodologically independent empirical tests rather than a theoretical framework with a contested parameter. Kimura’s identity is still wrong, the molecular clock as currently calibrated still overstates divergence times, and the Neo-Darwinian accounting of sequence evolution still rests on a Wright-Fisher idealization that doesn’t describe real populations. The fix is more conceptual than catastrophic and will require properly labeling what each constraint measures, accepting more modest recalibration magnitudes than Term 3 originally suggested, and grounding the falsification more solidly in the empirical evidence rather than theoretical derivation.
We did the best we could with what we had at the time of the original paper; the addition of the empirical data allows us to refine the framework and make the case stronger and more conclusive.