The US military is unlikely to engage in large-scale hostilities in July or August because it lacks the necessary fuel:
On March 11, 2026, US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright announced the release of 172 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) over approximately 120 days in response to rising oil prices resulting from United States attacks on Iran. At that drawdown pace — roughly 1.4 million barrels per day — the sour component of the SPR would be depleted of the released portion within the 120-day window, without any Persian Gulf replacement arriving via Cape routing until late summer at the earliest. So let’s do the math: 20 days in March, 30 days in April, 31 days in May, 30 days in June = 111 days. In other words, we have 9 days of sour crude left in the SPR.
This could be a deception of some sort, but even if there wasn’t a shortage of jet fuel and ship fuel, the larger problem of Iranian drones and Iranian missiles remains. The only reason war is still on the horizon is because a) Israel is trying to keep the US military in the Middle East and b) Clown World is trying to hold onto power in Europe and the USA.
But neither effort is likely to work, and more war is only going to make the new situation all that much more obvious to the world.