Robert Kagan, the eminence grise of the neocons, has been steadily ratcheting down his objectives. Now he’s merely hoping to preserve the existence of NATO.
Putin’s primary goal right now is to force Ukraine’s surrender. Aiding Ukraine has already begun to be a controversial subject in Poland; the prospect of Russian attacks in retaliation could drive up opposition, especially if the United States proves unreliable. That in turn will force Ukrainians to contemplate a world without foreign assistance.
But Putin also has his eye on a bigger prize: the collapse of the NATO alliance. For many months Putin has been waging a “shadow war” against NATO member states—one that the Center for European Policy Analysis describes as “a concerted and coordinated campaign of attacks” aimed at raising the costs and risks to those nations aiding Ukraine. These have included sabotage of key infrastructure, arson, and assassination attempts against European defense executives. The Trump administration’s response has been to tell the Europeans they need to defend themselves, because the United States can no longer afford to do so; to hint at substantial withdrawals of American forces from Europe; and, most recently, to cancel a multiyear defense-training program for the Baltic allies.
The “shadow war” was a characteristic Putin probe to see what the United States would tolerate. The Trump administration’s lack of response encouraged Putin to take the next step and bring the “shadow war” out from the shadows. By overtly attacking Poland, Putin has forced the question of America’s security commitment to the fore. For Trump to do nothing in response to the constant strikes against civilian targets in Ukraine was one thing. If he does nothing in response to a Russian attack on Poland, Europeans will have to stop fooling themselves and face the fact that the Americans really aren’t there for them.
Of course, you have to learn how to read between the lines with people like this. While it’s true that Putin would like to see NATO collapse, he’s obviously not trying to accomplish that by sending a few old drones to crash into country houses in Poland or buzzing the Stockholm airport. These are just the pathetic false flags being waved by the Europeans in a futile attempt to talk the US military into defending them in the war against Russia they started.
If Ukraine doesn’t surrender, NATO will be destroyed. NATO will likely fall apart on its own when the USA withdraws from Europe, but contra Kagan’s ahistorical assertions, it never had any ability to defeat Russia at any time since 2022.