It’s fascinating to see the media frantically citing the overwhelming Fake Poll numbers, as if by repetition they can stave off the approaching reckoning. And yet, they are observably worried that all the polls are wrong.
As Election Day approaches and President Donald Trump continues to trail Joe Biden by high single digits both nationally and in key states, their respective bases are buzzing with either hope or dread that “the polls could be wrong again.”
In truth, public opinion polls are imperfect instruments, and there’s always bound to be some degree of error, especially given the widely varying quality of the nation’s pollsters. But Trump would probably need a larger polling miss than in 2016 to win re-election, and there’s no guarantee a systemic polling error this year would run in his favor….
Fundamentally, the current polling in the 2020 race is different from 2016 in three important ways.
First, Biden’s lead is larger and much more stable than Clinton’s was at this point. Second, there are far fewer undecided and third-party voters left to woo — reducing the chances of a late break toward one side.
And third, the scores of district and state-level polls conducted by the parties to make spending decisions in down-ballot races generally align with national polls showing Trump running behind his 2016 pace, including in key states. In 2016, these same polls had shown flashing red warning signs for Clinton, particularly in districts with lots of white working-class voters.
The spinning won’t stop until the Young Turks cry. Just for the record, let’s note the prediction by The Economist.
95{5c1a0fb425e4d1363f644252322efd648e1c42835b2836cd8f67071ddd0ad0e3} Joe Biden 95{5c1a0fb425e4d1363f644252322efd648e1c42835b2836cd8f67071ddd0ad0e3} 249-421
05{5c1a0fb425e4d1363f644252322efd648e1c42835b2836cd8f67071ddd0ad0e3} Donald Trump 117-289
Trump winning the popular vote is really going to shatter them.