Pepe Escobar says China is behind the Pakistani negotiations and Iran is dictating terms because the USA can no longer defend either the Gulf State or Israel:
There’s absolutely no way that Pakistan could have offered “guarantees” to Iran that a ceasefire was the way for the war to eventually end. As confirmed by diplomatic sources, what really happened is that Beijing, at the 11th moment, placed itself as the guarantor, assuring Tehran that the US would accept at least some of Iran’s demands included in its 10-point plan.
That was further confirmed by Iranian ambassador to China, Abdolreza Rhamani Fazili. The negotiations start this Friday in Islamabad.
POTUS, the Drooling Baboon of Barbaria, confronted with the inevitable, dire consequences of his own strategic blunder, used Pakistan for his off-ramp. That was confirmed by another epic blunder by the Pakistani Prime Minister himself: he forgot to remove the header of the tweet/X post drafted by the White House for him to publish.
The current Pakistani regime – de facto led by Field Marshall Asim Munir, who has Trump on speed dial – may have profited, and will continue to geopolitically profit, from a unique status: a Muslim nuclear nation with a significant Shi’ite minority; good relations with the GCC; neighbor of Iran, enjoying good relations; signed a defense pact with Saudi Arabia; a strategic partner of China; no US bases on its soil.
But Islamabad was always a mere go-between, never the architect of any “mediation”. Whatever obfuscation coming from the White House, it was China that had to clinch the lineaments of a possible détente.
The Epstein Syndicate begs for a break
We had arrived to a point where the death cult in West Asia was being crushed simultaneously by Iran and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon; no matter the avalanche of spin, their cries begging for help played a significant part into Trump’s pivoting to a ceasefire.
The Epstein Syndicate as a whole begged for it. Nothing to do with geopolitics, but with operational hell: the Empire of Chaos has run out of military resources.
The ultimate give away was when the USS Tripoli retreated – under fire – to the depths of the southern Indian Ocean, complete with its 2,500 Marines on board. That meant the US Navy out of the war theater – except for subs with Tomahawks, roughly half of which go off-target with staggering (non)precision.
War isn’t always about offense. That’s something that aggressors throughout history have failed to understand. They spend all of their time thinking about what they can do to the enemy and none of it thinking about what the enemy can do to them.
Israel was correct about time running out on their influence over the US military. They were incorrect about what they thought the US military could accomplish on their behalf. In some ways, this end of empire scenario playing out in an area of little to no national interest is actually a good thing for Americans, because nothing of value will be lost in the defeat.
There is no value in the false belief of unstoppable imperial power. Better than the balloon be punctured in the Middle East with a third-rate power than in direct conflict with either Russia or China.