So the media and the Fake Trump administration have finally discovered the math that I and seemingly every military YouTuber have been paying close attention to since last June.
- As war continues to rage on, there are now fears that the sophisticated weaponry favoured by the US and its allies may be too expensive and too hard to procure for a longer military campaign.
- The UAE’s drone defence costs were between $253m and $759m, suggesting it spent up to 30 times more defending itself against Iran’s drones than its adversary spent on attacking it. And there are fears that Gulf states may soon run out of anti-air defences.
- US Navy Admiral Brad Cooper, the head of US Central Command, said Iran has launched more than 500 ballistic missiles and 2,000 drones so far.
- Tonight, the Trump Administration gave another Briefing to members of Congress. Senator Richard Blumenthal came out and had said: “I am more fearful than ever after this briefing, that we may be putting boots on the ground.”
Astonishingly, the US military may be forced by Israeli-occupied Washington into an operation that would be even more retarded than its decision to engage in an attritional air war with Iran. Which, obviously, has failed in its primary objectives; Epic Fury has been an epic failure. To fully understand how absolutely and utterly retarded it would be to “put boots on the ground” now you will first have to read Five Generations of Modern War, which I wrote in July 2025.
Next, consider how significantly both Russia and Ukraine have had to overhaul the strategies and tactics of their infantry and armor operations in the Ukraine theater, and why they have done so. And then, take into account the fact that Iran is one of the largest, if not the largest, manufacturers of drones in the world.
If the US puts boots on the ground in Iran, it will make the failures in Cuba, Vietnam, and Afghanistan look like grand successes. Warfare has changed considerably since 2022, and I see absolutely no indication whatsoever that the US military has even begun to make the necessary changes to its various tactical and strategic doctrines that are absolutely required for 5GW.
UPDATE: Meanwhile the US Navy is failing at its primary mission of keeping the seas open for trade.
The Navy can’t do the escorts. The escorts Trump announced in ALL CAPS hours ago. The escorts that dropped oil 10%. The escorts that the DFC is insuring. The Navy just told industry there’s no availability.
No availability. The trillion-dollar Navy. The most powerful naval force in human history. Eleven carriers. Hundreds of ships. No availability to escort tankers through a strait the president just promised to keep open.
Because the ships are committed. The two carrier strike groups in theater are committed to the air campaign and missile defense. The destroyers are firing interceptors and Tomahawks. The VLS cells are emptying. The ships that aren’t in theater are in other theaters that have already been stripped to feed this one. Patriots pulled from Korea. The Pacific thinned. Every available asset already committed. Nothing left for escorts.
And Lloyd’s List reporting it. Lloyd’s List. The maritime industry bible since 1734. The publication that insurance companies and shipping lines read to assess risk. Lloyd’s List telling the shipping industry that the Navy said no. The escorts aren’t coming.