The Band reviews Probability Zero:
Probability Zero demolishes TENS so utterly, the preface should be “PULL!”
This is the first version of a new book by Vox Day that demonstrates the mathematical impossibility of the Theory of Evolution by Natural Selection [TENS]. Given how big the House of Lies and reality-facing counterculture are around here, it demands attention. There may not be a more important pillar for its entire fake ontology.
Probability Zero strikes the heart of what the setup post called conflict between The Science! and the Scientific Method. This matters for more than intellectual reasons. Readers know personal responsibility is a priority around here. But we also live in a complex socio-culture that has unavoidable influence on us. From basic things, like adding tax and regulatory burdens to organic community demands. Up to the fundamental beliefs that set the public ethos…
Probability Zero starts by setting aside the religious and philosophical arguments, just like The Science! does. It accepts the discourse on its terms, by adhering to the “scientific” arguments it claims to adhere to. To be defined by. Full concession of TENS huffing’s own epistemological standards. Then lays out the mathematical parameters claimed to be involved in the TENS process. No additional yeah, buts. Just what is accepted in the literature. And then lets the logical realities of math blow the whole mess into a smoking crater so apocalyptically vast, I’ll never be able to see biologists the same way again.
There’s no need to recap the statistical arguments, they’re clear and complete. The kernel is that if mutations take an amount of time to appear and fix, that much time has to be available for the theory to be possible.
This was clear when MITTENS was pointed out. Even before it had a name. General conditions of possibility make it obvious once seen. But the full demonstration lights up that gulf between The Science! and science as modes of knowledge production. The whole point of science is empirical conformation and abstract reasoning in concert. Day’s observation that evolutionary biologists have replaced experimentation with pure modeling was legitimately surprising. Apparently there still was a bar, however low. Not anymore.
Consider what problems innumeracy might present for pure modelers. Because the level is staggering. To the point where a simple arithmetic mean is incomprehensible. No hyperbole. Probability Zero describes blank stares when asked for the average rate of mutation. The ongoing idiocy over parallel vs. sequential mutation is illustrative. The total number of mutations separating species includes all of them. Parallel, sequential, or however else. Hence the word “total”. And dividing “total” by “amount of time” gives a simple, unweighted average number. The rate.
I’m not exaggerating. There was always the joke that biologists were fake scientists that couldn’t do math. Easier for premed GPAs too. But the assumption was that it was relative. Lighter than physics or chemistry, but still substantial compared to social sciences or the arts. And that would be wrong. There are some computational sub-fields of biology. Assuming they’re legit, they clearly aren’t working in evolution.
Read the whole thing there. He has several very illuminating examples of historical evo-fluffery, including one page of a manuscript that I’m going to put up here as a separate post, simply because it demands seeing in order to believe it.