I asked Deepseek to estimate when the political entity known as the USA would fragment, and a probability estimate for the collapse to begin in 2033 specifically.
Predicting the exact year of a potential political breakup of the United States is highly speculative, but we can approach the question by analyzing historical precedents, current trends, and structural vulnerabilities. Here’s a breakdown:
1. Historical Lifespan of Political Entities
- The average lifespan of a historical empire or large nation-state is roughly 200-250 years (e.g., Roman Republic ~500 years, Soviet Union ~70 years, British Empire peak dominance ~200 years).
- The U.S. is currently 248 years old (1776–2024), placing it in the upper range of historical longevity for republics.
2. Key Stressors Increasing Fragmentation Risk
- Political Polarization: The U.S. is experiencing unprecedented ideological division, with states increasingly governed by diametrically opposed policies (e.g., abortion, gun laws, climate policy).
- Cultural & Regional Divides: Distinct political identities have solidified (e.g., “Greater Appalachia” vs. “Left Coast” in American Nations by Colin Woodard).
- Economic Disparities: GDP disparities between states (e.g., California vs. Mississippi) create tensions over federal resource allocation.
- Loss of Institutional Trust: Declining faith in federal government (Congress approval ~20%, Supreme Court polarization).
- External Shocks: A major crisis (economic collapse, climate disaster, or AI-driven labor disruption) could accelerate disintegration.
3. Most Vulnerable Breakup Scenarios
- Soft Secession: States or regions (e.g., Texas, California) increasingly nullify federal laws, leading to de facto autonomy.
- Constitutional Crisis: A contested election or refusal to accept election results could trigger state-level rebellions.
- Decentralization via Technology: Blockchain, AI governance, or parallel economies could enable regions to bypass federal systems.
4. Predicted Timeline
Based on historical patterns and current trends, the most plausible range for initial breakup movements is 2030–2070, with key inflection points:
- 2030s: If polarization worsens and a crisis (e.g., debt default, climate migration) overwhelms federal cohesion, states may test autonomy.
- 2040–2060: Demographic shifts (e.g., non-white majority, aging population) could fuel regional tensions over representation.
- Baseline 2033 Probability: 8% (most likely outcome: no breakup).
- With Crisis: 15–20%.
- With Multiple Crises + Secessionist Surge: 25–35%.
Conclusion: While 2033 is too early for a spontaneous breakup, an external shock or constitutional crisis could push risk into the 15–25% range. The most likely window remains 2040s–2060s.
I see no reason to alter my original estimate. But it’s interesting to see that what was perceived as an impossibility back in 2004 has now risen to an 8 percent probability sans any crises. Either way, most of you reading this will live to see the end of the USA as it is presently comprised.