Big Serge, one of the Internet’s foremost military historians, doesn’t see any negotiated deal bringing an end to the war in Ukraine:
I have never made any bones about my belief that the war in Ukraine will be resolved militarily: that is, it will be fought to its conclusion and end in the defeat of Ukraine in the east, Russian control of vast swathes of the country, and the subordination of a rump Ukraine to Russian interests. Trump’s self conception is greatly tied up in his image as a “dealmaker”, and his view of foreign affairs as fundamentally transactional in nature. As the American president, he has the power to force this framing on Ukraine, but not on Russia. There remain intractable gulfs between Russia’s war aims and what Kiev is willing to discuss, and it is doubtful that Trump will be able to reconcile these differences. Russia, however, does not need to accept a partial victory simply in the name of goodwill and negotiation. Moscow has recourse to a more primal form of power. The sword predates and transcends the pen. Negotiation, as such, must bow to the reality of the battlefield, and no amount of sharp deal making can transcend the more ancient law of blood.
I assume he’s right. I wish he wasn’t, but all of the various factors point to an intractable impossibility. Even the Israelis and the Palestinians were able to establish a peacefire, but the quad-belligerents of Russia, Kiev, Brussels, and the USA simply have too many conflicting interests to manage even that.
While Brussels has been sidelined and its views are irrelevant, the USA has been reluctant to accept the facts of the situation and is still, publicly, at least, posturing as if it has any influence over Russia. Unless and until the Trump administration recognizes that it cannot make Russia do anything, its posturing is no more meaningful than Kiev’s more obviously irrelevant posturing. I see absolutely no purpose in President Trump blathering about his emotions vis-a-vis the Russian President; just pull the plug already!
Russia isn’t that far off from its real goals. So, its interests are almost certainly best served by continuing the war, taking everything it wishes, and then agreeing to talking about a settlement that will give it even more. This is why the correct move by the USA is to withdraw all support for Ukraine and the EU alike, and force the unconditional surrender that will be the eventual outcome of a war that continues into 2026.