Whether the Gaza war was a genocide, a pyrrhic victory for Hamas, or the most humane invasion and occupation in military history, there aren’t a lot of people who are confident it will last. Simplicius contemplates why Netanyahu suddenly agreed to it after a series of rejections:
We can’t have particularly high confidence of it succeeding, particularly given that top Israeli officials like Ben-Gvir have already expressed their hopes that the deal will fail, and will undoubtedly give their most earnest try in undermining it in any way possible.
It also has little bearing on Israel’s continued strikes on various other surrounding countries, from Lebanon and Syria to Yemen. Israel even stepped up strikes on Gaza today, killing a reported dozen or so—one supposes they needed to sate their fill of bloodlust as consolation for the coming cessation of hostilities.
In fact, a report just earlier claimed that Israel even unleashed its first direct strike on Jolani’s troops: The Israeli Air Force has carried out its first strike on the forces of the terrorist group HTS, which has seized power in Syria.
The attack targeted a convoy of militants in the province of Quneitra to prevent them from getting closer to IDF forces on the ground. This was right around the time that Erdogan issued a loud rebuke toward Netanyahu, calling on him to stop striking Syria as tensions continue rising between Turkey and its Syrian proxies and Israel.
Erdogan: “The aggressive actions of the forces attacking Syrian territory, Israel, in particular, must come to an end as soon as possible. Otherwise, it will cause unfavorable outcomes for everyone.”
We’re left to speculate whether this rising new threat is chief amongst reasons for Netanyahu finally acquiescing to a ceasefire he rejected many times before. With the IDF’s continued dismal performance—in particular its major failure in incurring into Lebanese territory—Netanyahu may have chosen to reduce the burden of the multi-fronted war in order to free up resources to concentrate on the potential new threat from the Turkish-Syria axis.
The immediate situation looks much better for Israel than it has in years, if not decades. While the war in Lebanon against Hezbollah has been a failure, the unexpected success in Syria more than makes up for that. However, trading Syria for Turkey as an enemy would not appear to be strategically advantageous. Especially if – and it’s a big if – Erdogan leads Turkey out of NATO, strikes up an alliance with Iran and Russia, and joins BRICS.
At least at this point, the biggest winner in the Israeli-Palestinian-Syrian war looks like Turkey.