You’d barely know there was an invasion of Lebanon at all based on the lack of media coverage of the ground war compared to the multiple big headlines of the continuing series of air strikes everywhere from Lebanon to Yemen, complete with the name and rank of the Hezbollah commander supposedly killed in the bombing. I don’t think we can necessarily read too much into that, except for two things.
- Where are the names and identities of all the Hezbollah commanders killed and captured on the ground?
- It’s usually not a good sign if one has to call in the reserves in the early stages of an offensive.
- The IDF has already committed more troops than it did in the 2006 war.
Israel has been conducting ground incursions into Lebanese territory. The Israeli military said a fourth division is now taking part in the incursion, which has expanded to the west, but operations still appear to be confined to a narrow strip along the border. The 146th Division, made up of reservists, had entered southern Lebanon, in an apparent escalation.
The IDF committed five divisions to Gaza, where Hamas has been defeated but not pacified. The fact that it’s already committed four divisions to Lebanon, including a reserve division, in barely the first week of combat, doesn’t prove that things are not going well there, but does tend to suggest that they are not. I expect we’ll find out soon enough; if the IDF declares its limited objectives were achieved and withdraws before the end of October, that will imply that it was decisively defeated by Hezbollah.
On the other hand, if the IDF reserves rapidly proceed up to the Litani River and the missile barrages come to an end, we’ll know that it won the latest round. Everything else is just rhetoric.