Let Experience Be Silent

When more relevant information gainsays its conclusions. Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former Commanding Officer of the 1st Royal Tank Regiment, was certain that the British wunderpanzers were going to wreak havoc on the Russian lines back in June.

As a former tank commander, I can say one thing for certain: Putin’s demoralised conscripts are utterly unprepared for the shock action now hitting their lines. Ukrainian armoured formations are beginning to meet Russian forces in battle, and they are going to pulverise Russia’s defensive lines. I am confident for one simple reason: Ukraine will follow the Western ideology of manoeuvre warfare in a combined arms context, while the Russians will follow Soviet doctrine, relying on attrition and numbers. The Russians will find that the armour of Western tanks is far more resilient than flesh and bone, they will die in great numbers, and they will lose.

British-made tanks are about to sweep Putin’s conscripts aside, THE TELEGRAPH, 9 June 2023

Yeah, so, about that…

It turns out that attrition, numbers, and artillery trump propaganda and manoeuvre warfare. And apparently, the British are even more delusional about their tanks than they are about their chances of winning the World Cup. But like the World Cup, the 28 Challenger 2 tanks sent to Ukraine will not be coming home.