Simplicius reviews a few theories concerning the failed insurrection in Russia by the Wagner mercenary company.
Let’s explore a few possible options for what could actually be going on.
- Prigozhin is working with AFU/SBU/CIA to backstab and destroy Russia, coordinating his actions with them.
- Prigozhin is secretly working with Putin to remove the stodgily entrenched Russian command. Notice, not in a single one of his rants has Prigozhin accused Putin or so much as even mentioned his name. There’s a possibility that all this is theater to cause a “conciliatory deal” to be made which will result in the ‘stepping aside’ of Shoigu. Putin has previously “laterally promoted” (in actuality demotions) several big name siloviki in the past. For instance, Sergei Ivanov who was deputy prime minister and presidential chief of staff was “moved” to head some ‘ecological’ department. Could we see Shoigu used as a fig leaf to settle the impasse by “laterally” moving him to some other ostensibly ‘important’ (but actually irrelevant) position?
- Everything is actually “as is” and whatever we see on the surface of the conflict pretty much represents what’s really happening.
One last thing to mention. There is still the possibility this is all some kind of elaborate psyop. Anything is possible because the situation is simply so ‘out of left field’. The reason it’s out of left field to me in particular is Prigozhin really did not appear to have any substantive justification for any of this. As I said, Russia was crushing the AFU and has recently been in the best position of the entire SMO. Why would something like this happen now, if it were legitimate? It simply defies belief that Prigozhin would be so incensed about all the “failings” of the MOD at the time of the MOD’s singularly greatest glory on the battlefield. The only explanation in that case would be—as I said before—that Prigozhin knew his time was up as the MOD was already planning on canning him, so it was “now or never” for him.
My theory is considerably more simple and is based on “Every Single Time.”
Yevgeny Prigozhin was born in Leningrad (now Saint Petersburg) 1 June 1961. His father and stepfather were of Russian-Jewish descent.
In other words, Prigozhin is a sleeper agent for Clown World who was activated as a desperate reaction to the abject failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
I can cite precisely zero evidence supporting this theory, but it’s certainly more coherent and consistent with historical events than the “he just went crazy” or “Russian psyop” theories. I don’t think it’s particularly far-fetched to suggest that the man’s true sympathies lie with his co-ethnics presently ruling over the Ukrainian people, especially in light of the Western response to Prigozhin’s announced “coup”.
The US has postponed a fresh round of economic sanctions on the Wagner private military company after its leader, Evgeny Prigozhin, led a march on Moscow in defiance of the Kremlin, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday, citing sources.
UPDATE: Simplicius appears to have come around to my way of thinking.
My other more sinister theory is born: The entire production was in fact an oligarch-funded, perhaps Western-backed coup that was meant to topple Putin. Shoigu and Gerasimov were merely the cover to convince Wagner troops to march on the Kremlin. You see, Shoigu provides a brilliantly convenient target because troops are disgruntled with him. So all Priggy had to do was tell his troops we’re going to take out Shoigu and hand over the reins to Putin and it was easy convincing.
However, this may have always been a performance. You see, once the troops were to have marched to the Kremlin with him, he could position a few thousand of them as a cordon around the Kremlin itself. Then, a much smaller vanguard of his absolute most trustworthy, diehard, and fanatical revolutionaries—Dmitry Utkin surely has these under him—would have walked into the Kremlin with Prigozhin under the guise of “going to arrest Shoigu”.
But the next time the outside Wagner troops would see Prigozhin emerge from the Kremlin would be on the balcony, hailing them with the crown on his head as the new ruler of Russia. Because the idea all along was to use this facade to overthrow Putin and take control for himself.