The Chinese government does not appear to be impressed by the response of Taiwan President Tsai or the US government to the recent US surrender to the Taliban in Afghanistan.
On Wednesday, Taiwan’s regional leader Tsai Ing-wen finally made a speech on the panic on the island triggered by Afghanistan’s situation. She declared that Taiwan’s only option is to make itself stronger, more united and more determined to defend itself. Just before Tsai’s speech, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Tuesday responded to whether the US will abandon Taiwan. He said that “When it comes to Taiwan, it is a fundamentally different question in a different context” and the US’ “commitment” to Taiwan remains “as strong as it’s ever been.”
The statements of Sullivan and Tsai show the rapid collapse of the US-supported Afghan government has brought a real shock to the island. Both Washington and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities are diffident about this, and they believe it is necessary to calm the doubts.
However, the empty words of Sullivan and Tsai were predictable. They would inevitably say so, and had to say so. As to whether Taiwan will show resistance when the mainland uses force to unify the island one day, they did not offer any convincing additional information.
Will the US abandon Taiwan? Fundamentally speaking, this is a matter of time and situation, and it will not be decided by a few elites in the US and Taiwan. We believe that as long as the mainland’s strength continues to grow, and as long as it prepares fully for military struggles and has a firm will to unify, then there is no doubt the US is doomed to eventually abandon Taiwan.
The six reasons provided are convincing, perhaps even conclusive. Regardless, it is clear that there is no possibility that the USA is going to go to war to defend Taiwan from China under any circumstances. While it’s true that the US commitment to Taiwan is “as strong as it’s ever been”, all that means is that the US was never intending to defend the island in the first place. Forget Afghanistan, the US doesn’t even defend its own borders these days.
The concept of “strategic uncertainty” only works as long as the opponent is genuinely uncertain about one’s intentions. And China, correctly, is now certain that the USA won’t do anything to prevent the inevitable annexation of what China has always considered to be a rebel province. At this point, it’s more uncertain that the US troops would even fight to defend South Korea in the event of a North Korean attack.
The shock and awe of Desert Storm has long since dissipated. The monopolar world is no more. And even if it takes a decade or more for the Israel-First imperialists in the USA to admit it, this is the reality of modern geopolitics.
Of course, all of this obscures the larger issue that absolutely no one in the media presently dares to discuss. Since the US military can’t, and won’t, defend Afghanistan, since it can’t, and won’t, defend Ukraine, if it can’t, and won’t, defend Taiwan, is it still even able to defend its greatest ally, Israel? While there is no question that all the neoclowns and their pet politicians are more than willing to have it do so, it is the question of its capabilities that is the much more relevant one.