Early county review

CURRENT VERDICT: early returns look VERY solidly pro-Trump. It’s all but over already. Note that we need to see OFFICIAL RETURNS from the counties confirming the statistical trends before anything can be called.

Quote of the Day: You’re not going to learn anything useful about the election outcome on here until 7pm, i.e. when they start counting votes. – Nate Silver, 538

Broward County (M=67)


  • 1,179,189 registered
  • 822,837 cast
  • 71.8 percent turnout
  • 1,267,187 registered (+7.5%)
  • 954,442 cast (+15.9%)
  • 75.32 percent turnout
  • Biden is at 75.1% with 10 percent reported.
  • Biden running 1.2 percent behind Hillary so far.
  • FL all voting: Rs +56,009. Broward, election day only: Ds up 2300, Palm Beach, election day only: Rs +12,000 (!)
  • Trump seriously overperforming in Miami-Dade, up 4.4 percent vs 2016. FL r/d: Rs +92,692 Rs +14,000 in  . . . PALM BEACH on election day.
  • There are only four blue counties on election day. One is D by only 14 votes, one by 48 votes, one by  1070 votes, and Broward by 3,294. We are 4,426 votes from having every FL county red today.
  • At noon, Trump ALREADY has more votes in Broward County than he did in 2016: 204,368 to 193,658. 
  • As of 1 PM, more votes had been cast in FL than were cast in 2016, 9,967,361 to 9,420,039. Donald Trump currently has an estimated lead of 116,422 which exceeds his 2016 winning margin of 113,000.
  • “Starting to fall down the Florida election day turnout rabbit hole. Already went for a run so I think I’d just better go and play some FIFA or something.” – Nate Silver
  • Voter enthusiasm has been very underwhelming here in Broward County. Turnout looked low on the second to last day of early voting when I went.”
  • CNN just said Biden campaign is making an extra effort to get voters to the polls in South Florida, and that FL, NC, and GA are their main challenges.
  • This Nate Silver thread has to be read to be believed. Someone, somewhere, is going to be shocked.

Mecklenburg County (M=64)


  • Trump picked up 3.05% in early votes vis-a-vis 2016.
Philadelphia County (M=83)

Wayne County (M=67)

Hennepin County (M=62)

Milwaukee County (M=67)