Mailvox: death in Holland

A reader analyzes the death rates in The Netherlands and concludes that corona-chan is not a complete hoax:

I did an analysis of deaths in 2020 in the Netherlands. Long story short, it’s not all fake, something is killing people over 65 beyond demographic expectations. The Netherlands collects meticulous population data and has made historical data publicly available. I’ve combined general population numbers and deaths from the past 25 years to see if 2020 carries an increased risk of death.

Goal: Compare the expected vs actual deaths in 2020 across 3 age groups

  • 0-65 years old
  • 65-80 years old
  • 80+ years old


  • We know how many people died in each age group, every week, for the past 24 years.
  • We know the total size of each age group for the past 24 years.
  • Thus we can estimate the weekly chance of dying for each age group, for the past 24 years
  • We can take the average weekly chance of dying and apply it to current population to estimate the deaths per age group


  • Morbidity/mortality has decreased the past 24 years, most visible in the 80+ age group (13{de336c7190f620554615b98f51c6a13b1cc922a472176e2638084251692035b3} yearly mortality in 1995 vs 10.8{de336c7190f620554615b98f51c6a13b1cc922a472176e2638084251692035b3} in 2019)
  • 2019 was a mild year across age groups
  • Winter of 2017/2018 had a nasty flu season around week 10
  • Winter of 1999/2000 had a nasty flu season around week 1, comparable to the peak in 2020
  • Deaths in 0-65 age group was 3{de336c7190f620554615b98f51c6a13b1cc922a472176e2638084251692035b3} less than compared to past 3 year average, and 14{de336c7190f620554615b98f51c6a13b1cc922a472176e2638084251692035b3} less than the 24 year average
  • Deaths in 65-80 age group was 10{de336c7190f620554615b98f51c6a13b1cc922a472176e2638084251692035b3} higher than past 3-year average, but still 14{de336c7190f620554615b98f51c6a13b1cc922a472176e2638084251692035b3} less than 24-year average
  • Deaths in 80+ age group was 6{de336c7190f620554615b98f51c6a13b1cc922a472176e2638084251692035b3} higher than past 3-year average and 2{de336c7190f620554615b98f51c6a13b1cc922a472176e2638084251692035b3} higher than the 24-year average
  • Peak in 2020 is outside of the regular flu season

Translation: the coronavirus was worse than the regular flu, but not massively worse. Certainly not bad enough to justify the global pandemic panic. Which again tends to point us toward the conclusion that there is something else happening here.