Super Tuesday

Today’s primaries should eliminate Bloomberg and provide some indication as to whether Democrats are looking to offer up the creep or the socialist as an offering to the God-Emperor:

It took a little longer than it sometimes does, but the early primary and caucus states performed their traditional role in the process of winnowing the field of candidates. The results of Super Tuesday will answer some big questions about the race.

First, the results today will tell us what the two main coalitions really look like. The first four small states offered clues, but the total number of voters in the 14 Super Tuesday states is exponentially larger. Sanders seems to have failed to grow his support among African Americans much beyond his 2016 percentages, but he has made inroads among Latino voters. He remains dominant among young voters and does better on the coasts and in the northeast. Biden is the candidate of African Americans, suburban moderates, the South, and older voters.

Many of the differences between these two groups are cultural, not ideological. But inside the Democratic Party there is a debate not unlike the one that divides the two main parties about the breadth of change that Washington should pursue. The Democrats’ moderate wing, which is now anchored by older black voters in the south, remains deeply skeptical of Sanders-style socialism, while the New New left, powered by young radicals in big cities, is repelled by the incrementalism of Biden.

Translation: the usual suspects have lost control of the party to the diversity. And let’s not forget 538’s final projections before they are vanished in the aftermath of the actual results:

  • 484 Biden
  • 463 Sanders
  • 222 Bloomberg
  • 162 Warren
UPDATE: initial returns look good for Biden, flat for Sanders, poor for Bloomberg.

UPDATE: Biden is projected to win both Virginia and North Carolina. With the projections this early, that means he’s winning them handily.