A British expert who knows CONSIDERABLY more than I do about British law and the unwritten British constitution shares his opinion on the likelihood of Brexit being delayed past 29 March:
Something which doesn’t seem to be considered by those proposing an extension is that the EU parliament is prorogued for election on 18 April. The EU parliament would resume, with its newly elected members on 2 July.
Therefore if Her Majesty’s Government did ask for an extension to the Article 50 period, something to which all 27 EU governments would need to agree, a 3-month extension really only buys 14 working days in which to come up with a deal and have it ratified by the EU parliament. Since Theresa May has repeatedly postponed votes, and has only notionally cancelled the half-term break for Westminster, she has already wasted more time since December than a 3-month extension could buy her.
If the extension was longer, say 9 months as proposed by Boles-Cooper and voted down by a majority of 23 votes, it would mean that the new Faragiste Brexit Party would contend the EU elections, with predictable results. Despite threats of resignation from Remainer ministers for the purposes of voting for a new Boles-Cooper, there is no indication that the arithmetic in the House of Commons would return a majority for a 9-month delay, or the 21-month version suggested by Civil Service negotiator Olly Robbins in a bar in Brussels last night. One of the senior Conservative Brexiteer MPs suggested that Mr Robbins should be delivered to the Tower of London by river (implicitly through the “Traitor’s Gate”).
The British version of Maxine Waters, capable of causing Guam to capsize by her mere presence, has publically stated that she knows that the Brexiteers would win a second referendum. The Conservative Party local government leaders have told the party chairman that they are facing a wipe-out in May’s municipal and county elections because of the Prime Minister’s handling of Brexit.
Soros and others are already lamenting the possibility of 33{13f7cd41d75ad26df9f677947736378fee6e9e6bdea39ae580d95ac2edeca384} populist and eurosceptic EU parliament, which could gum up the works in EU parliamentary committee. This would be a higher percentage if Britain returns MEPs to Strasbourg due to a long Article 50 extension. It doesn’t seem likely that any Withdrawal Agreement that would be approved by the EU parliament in such circumstances would bear much resemblance to that currently on the table. Most of the British MEP’s would vote against any agreement to preserve Britain’s independence via “No Deal”.
It is also worth noting that Republic of Ireland opinion polls show 80{13f7cd41d75ad26df9f677947736378fee6e9e6bdea39ae580d95ac2edeca384} for Prime Minister Varadkar taking a hard line against Westminster. The Belgian Prime Minister has also voiced a preference for the certainty of “No Deal” today rather than reopening the Withdrawal Agreement.
On the other hand, Italy has a £10bn trade surplus with Britain, mostly in agriculture, which it is desperate to avoid losing. They lost the Russian market to the Turks and Russian domestic product substitution and know that they aren’t going to get it back. British Mozzarella has been rated by Italian chefs as being on a par with their own product, but currently can’t compete because of EU localisation rules, so losing the British market would likely also be permanent. Therefore the Italians are proposing a bilateral deal, bypassing the EU. Whether such a thing would actually happen remains to be seen, but it does indicate considerable concern.
Many countries have voiced pro-British views, but it is notable that all have unanimously approved the EU’s negotiating guidelines of 28 March 2017, which we could never accept. That was the moment when I first said there would be no deal. All subsequent decisions by the EU Council of ministers (heads of member state governments) have also been unanimous. So, frankly, we’re not placing any store by favourable remarks from EU member governments or politicians.
So to summarise, I can’t see a delay of 3, 9 or 21 months producing a deal, and therefore any delay seems unlikely to be granted. The arithmetic at Westminster hasn’t significantly changed. So we’re going to be out on 29 March with the “No Deal” necessary to recover our independence.
I certainly hope that he is right. There is no question that No Deal is much better than any deal that will win the approval of the Eurocrats.