It seems people haven’t learned much from Trump’s largely bloodless accomplishments in North Korea. But the main reason I doubt there will be any real war – or rather, any more real war – in Syria is that the US-Israeli proxies, which is the polite way of saying ISIS, have already been defeated.
Trump will have difficulty not doing something impressive after denouncing “Animal Assad” and promising that the Syrian leader would “pay a price” for the gas attack. Trump has also denounced President Barak Obama for his timidity in his use of US military strength against President Bashar al-Assad, so the US may do something spectacular.
What is more doubtful is whether or not US air strikes will have much impact in the long term. In many respects, the political situation on the ground in Syria has gelled as Assad asserts his control over most of populated Syria. The last rebels are being evacuated from Eastern Ghouta on the outskirts of Damascus. Syrian troops and tanks are reported to be massing to overrun an Isis held stronghold in the south of the capital.
Syria is being divided into three zones of unequal size: Assad backed by Russia and Iran in much of the country; Sunni Arab factions backed by Turkey in Idlib, newly captured Afrin and territory north of Aleppo; and in the north and east, a large triangle of land east of the Euphrates held by the Kurds supported by 2,000 US troops able to call in massive air power. Even heavy US air strikes on a one-off basis will not significantly change this balance of power.
There may well be a few missiles lobbed as well as an air strike or ten. But that is nothing serious. And remember, all Trump has promised is missiles, which by Middle East standards is merely sabre-rattling 103.