The Washington Post finally notices that there might be a little problem in the housing market:
Senior Obama administration officials said Friday that a nationwide moratorium on foreclosure sales may be inevitable, despite their grave reservations about the impact a broad freeze would have on the nation’s housing market and economic recovery…. With foreclosed properties comprising one in every four homes sold in the United States, the spreading moratorium could disrupt real estate deals in progress, slow down the process of clearing the backlog of troubled home loans and prolong the economic recovery, analysts said.
A freeze would also strike at the financial sector, just two years after it suffered one of the worst crises in its history. One government official who has been in discussions with several big financial firms said the banks are bracing themselves for a wave of lawsuits from homeowners who are fighting to keep their homes and from investors who had bought mortgage loans on Wall Street. On Friday, while the Dow Jones industrial average crossed 11,000, most major bank stocks fell.
Translation: Senior Obama administration officials said Friday that a nationwide moratorium on foreclosure salesallowing the big insolvent banks to go bankrupt may be inevitable, despite their grave reservations about the impact a broad freezefailure to enact a second banking bailout would have on the nation’s housing market and economic recoverydepression.
Yesterday’s post about the 13.3% decline in bank credit didn’t really do proper justice to the seriousness of the situation. One also has to factor in the historical 8.4% annual increase in bank credit. This means that there is presently a $2.2 trillion gap between the current credit supply and the $8.477 trillion in credit that a nominally healthy economy would have at the end of 2010.
That is the gap that the massive increase in Federal outlays are attempting to fill. In other words, the magnitude of the problem isn’t defined by a 13.3% decline from where we were, but rather, the 25.8% shortfall from where we should be.