The ECRI’s Weekly Leading Indicators has now fallen eight consecutive weeks and has been below -10 for two consecutive weeks. … [T]here has never been a WLI plunge in history of this depth and duration, nor any dip at all below -10 that has not been associated with a recession.
– Mike Shedlock, ECRI WLI in Negative Territory, July 31, 2010
The percent change from the preceding year in real GDP was revised down for all 3 years: from 2.1 percent to 1.9 percent for 2007, from an increase of 0.4 percent to 0.0 percent for 2008, and from a decrease of 2.4 percent to a decrease of 2.6 percent for 2009.
– Bureau of Economic Analysis, Revised Estimates: 2007 through First Quarter 2010, July 30, 2010
As the government statisticians revise their statistics downward and the leading indicators suggest that the so-called recovery is nothing more than an artifact of massive federal borrowing and spending, I thought it would be useful to revisit the scenario that I considered to be the most likely when I finished writing “The Return of the Great Depression” thirteen months ago. Given the advantage of one year of hindsight, I see absolutely no reason to change my conclusion regarding the ongoing global economic contraction. “It is not over. It has only begun.”