“The American economy appears to be in a cyclical recovery that is gaining strength. Firms have begun to hire and consumer spending seems to be accelerating. That is what usually happens after particularly sharp recessions, so it is surprising that many commentators, whether economists or politicians, seem to doubt that such a thing could possibly be happening. … Why is good news being received with such doubt? Why is “new normal” the currently popular economic phrase, signifying that growth will be subpar for an extended period, and that the old normal is no longer something to be expected?
– “Why So Glum? Numbers Point to a Recovery,” the New York Times, April 8, 2010
There are three kinds of statistics. First, there are objective and verifiable statistics which are extremely difficult to fake due to the ease with which they can be independently measured and confirmed. These are most typically seen in sports. It would be very difficult for the Minnesota Vikings to falsely claim that Adrian Peterson ran for 3,000 yards in 2009 due to the NFL game logs and thousands of recorded videos of the 16 games in which he played. Second, there are objective and unverifiable statistics which are more easily faked due to the difficulty involved in measuring them. A movie’s box office take, for example, is not something that a third party can reasonably confirm without sending thousands of people to all of the various movie theaters and counting how many people entered the relevant screen rooms.
UPDATE: The National Bureau of Economic Research appears to be skeptical of the recovery too, considering its refusal to declare the recession over:
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met at the organization’s headquarters in Cambridge, Massachusetts, on April 8, 2010. The committee reviewed the most recent data for all indicators relevant to the determination of a possible date of the trough in economic activity marking the end of the recession that began in December 2007. The trough date would identify the end of contraction and the beginning of expansion. Although most indicators have turned up, the committee decided that the determination of the trough date on the basis of current data would be premature.
UPDATE II: Did BoA, Citi, and JP Morgan/Chase just bail out Greece? Who borrowed $428 billion last week? I tend to doubt it was the American consumer.
