Composite Leading Indicators point to broad economic recovery. OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs) for July 2009 show stronger signs of recovery in most of the OECD economies. Clear signals of recovery are now visible in all major seven economies, in particular in France and Italy, as well as in China, India and Russia.
– Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Sept. 11, 2009
The economists of the OECD are far more serious and credible than the likes of CNBC’s Jim Cramer, who errantly announced the end of the recession in April. And, yet, they are no more likely to be correct about the economic recovery they are now forecasting than they were back in 2007, when they predicted 2008 GDP growth of 2.8 percent in the United States and 5.2 percent for the global economy. This is not to say that their optimism is baseless; there are a number of factors which tend to suggest that the economic situation has reversed and things are on the verge of improving soon.