Vox vs the Experts – the results

The 2008 Housing Price Test:

NAR EXPERTS’ 2008 FORECAST: “Existing-home prices are expected to… hold essentially even in 2008 at $218,300.”

VOX: Instead of $218k, I’m expecting a decline that would project to $175k or less by the end of the year.

THE VERDICT: “The median price crashed 15.3% year over year in December, to just $175,400.”

That, ladies and gentlemen, is why I am entirely unconcerned with whatever the expert scientific consensus of the moment happens to be. Intelligence and logic will usually – not always, but usually – trump expertise and consensus. Consider the track record: 2008 housing prices, check. Embryonic stem cell research, check. Dark matter, check. Global warming, check. Evolution, okay, jury’s still out.

And I am an expert in precisely none of those things. Now, if you’re still not convinced, what more would it take to convince you?