PHILIPPINES
US Army troops: 19,147
US land-based aircraft: 231
US carrier-based aircraft available: 0
Japanese time estimate: 50 days
Japanese force estimate: Two divisions
Actual time required: five months
Actual force required: Three divisions in two rounds of transport
WAKE ISLAND
USMC and USN troops: 517
US land-based aircraft: 12
Japanese force required: 1,950 Imperial Marines
Actual time required 15 days
HAWAII
US Army troops: 43,000. 24th, 25th and 299th Divisions
US land-based aircraft: 223 (159 survived Pearl Harbor attack, 77 undamaged.)
US carrier-based aircraft available: 332 immediately, plus another 240 within two weeks.
“The Island of Oahu“, due to its fortification, its garrison, and its physical characteristics, is believed to be the strongest fortress in the world.”
So, if the Wake Island garrison with only four planes that survived the initial bombardment could hold off a larger amphibious invasion force for 15 days, what are the chances that three fortified divisions with 409 planes could hold off the two divisions the Japanese were capable of transporting for the two weeks required to allow the East Coast carriers, plus the former CV-1 Langley, to converge on Hawaii and sink the entire strike force, carriers and all, even without the help of the 7th Bombardment Group (Heavy), 9th Bombardment Squadron (Heavy), 11th Bombardment Squadron (Heavy), and 22nd Bombardment Squadron (Heavy) flying in from Hamilton Field in San Rafael, California.
Furthermore, the 7th Bombardment Group (Heavy), 35th Pursuit Group (Interceptor), 22d Bombardment Squadron (Heavy), 38th Reconnaissance Squadron (Heavy), and 88th Reconnaissance Squadron (Heavy) which were enroute to the Philippines would also have been available.
Even if the Japanese abandoned both the Burma and the Philippine invasions in favor of a futile attempt on Hawaii, they still could only have transported three divisions; their maximum aircraft transport capability remained at 717 planes, 441 of which were already devoted to the historical Pearl Harbor attack, in which Japan lost 29 planes and 111 were damaged, 20 beyond repair.