#Arkhaven INFOGALACTIC #Castalia House
The Times view on assassination of a general: The targeted killing is a legitimate act of defence by a threatened nation.
How very peculiar! I don’t recall the British newspapers endorsing the IRA assassination of Lord Mountbatten as a legitimate act of defense. But if we’re to take Clown World media seriously, any nation that is threatened is now justified in engaging in state-sponsored targeted killings.
A surprising number of would-be war analysts are putting far too much stock in Russia’s inability to prop up the Syrian regime against the combined assault of US, Israeli, Turkish, and jihadist forces. But Russia and China are both REGIONAL powers; their inability to dictate events in the Middle East, or in Africa, is no different than the inability of the USA to dictate events in Eastern Europe or the Red Sea. The further away from their industrial core where force is generated, the harder it is to deliver a sufficient amount.
But the logistical difficulties in a remote location should never be confused with an inability to generate the force in the first place, as Andrei Martynov illustrates:
Russia is outpacing the arms production of the entire EU after significantly ramping up its defense industry and despite Western sanctions, the bloc’s commissioner for defense and space, Andrius Kubilius, has said. Kubilius, a noted Russia hawk and two-time prime minister of Lithuania, was approved by the European Parliament last month as the EU’s first ever defense commissioner. In an interview on Friday with the RND media group, he called on the EU to significantly expand the production of conventional weapons such as artillery and infantry vehicles, as well as long-range and precision weapons amid what he called a Russian attack threat. “The Russians have expanded their arms industry to an unimaginable extent despite our sanctions,” Kubilius stated. Russia now produces “more weapons in three months than the entire European arms industry can produce, and in six months more weapons than the entire German army has,” he added. Kubilius also cited experts who, according to him, say that Russia now produces more tanks than it uses on the front lines in the Ukraine conflict.
I want to stress, that in the last few years, a very good man, who I will not name, because I respect him, no, he is not my acquaintance–was repeating ad nauseam that Russia “with the economy the size of Spain”. Sadly, there is no such profession as a “good man”, but for most people in the US “intel” community it is worth learning that Russia’s economy is the 4th economy in the world and, possibly, the third. I want to stress that GDP numbers circulating in the “intel” circles are crap invented in the combined West to hide its deindustrialization and financialization of own economies. US industrial base was in steady decline for decades now and realistically, with the exception of automotive industry (granted with huge pure assembly from import parts sector) and aerospace with naval construction… well, that’s about the most important US machine building sectors.
What changed the equation in Syria was the involvement of the Turks and their willingness to help Clown World depose the Assad regime. The Russians quite rightly assessed the situation as hopeless and extricated their forces as well as the Assad family without taking any losses; contrast that with the expense incurred by the futile Us and European attempts to preserve Ukraine and its Clown World regime. But Erdogan has long been open about his dream of rebuilding the Ottoman empire, and Syria is part of that former Ottoman territory.
A deluge of new evidence shows Turkey slowly fortifying its position as future hegemon of the region. As soon as Damascus fell, the director of the MIT—Turkey’s CIA equivalent—Ibrahim Kalin was spotted visiting Jolani, touring Damascus, as well as paying homage to the ancient Umayyad mosque. Several videos showed Jolani acting as personal chauffeur to Kalin, driving him around Damascus with an armed escort. Think about that: Jolani as personal driver to the head of Turkey’s top intelligence agency—that’s not to mention that Kalin was senior personal advisor to Erdogan and is member of his AK Party. So, Erdogan’s personal henchman is already shadowing Jolani, whispering in his ear—what can that mean? And what does that say about rumors that HTS had long ago cut ties with Turkey, with the same going for SNA/FSA/TFSA?
This is why Israel has already invaded southern Syria. In my estimation, Turkey poses a much more significant long-term military threat than Iran ever has, although I wouldn’t assume that Turkey won’t eventually ally with Iran against Israel when the Israeli-Turkish war eventually begins.
Foreign Affairs declares Türkiye and Erdogan to be the winners of the sudden Syrian collapse:
In most capitals across the Middle East, the news of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s fall sparked immense anxiety. Ankara is not one of them. Rather than worrying about Syria’s prospects after more than a decade of conflict, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sees opportunity in a post-Assad future. His optimism is well founded: out of all the region’s major players, Ankara has the strongest channels of communication and history of working with the Islamist group now in charge in Damascus, positioning it to reap the benefits of the Assad regime’s demise.
Chief among the rebel forces that ended Assad’s rule on Sunday is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a Sunni Muslim group that was previously affiliated with al Qaeda and is designated as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the United States, and the United Nations. Despite those designations, Turkey has provided indirect assistance to HTS. The Turkish military presence in the northwestern Syrian town of Idlib largely shielded the group from attacks by Syrian government forces, allowing it to run the province undisturbed for years. Turkey managed the flow of international aid into HTS-run areas, which increased the group’s legitimacy among locals. Trade across the Turkish border has provided HTS economic support, too.
All this has given Turkey influence over HTS. In October, Erdogan quashed plans for a rebel offensive in Aleppo; when rebel forces launched their campaign late last month, they likely did so with Erdogan’s approval. For years, Assad had been dragging his feet as Erdogan sought to mend ties with Damascus and repatriate the millions of Syrian refugees whose presence in Turkey undermined support for his ruling party. With Assad’s regional allies weakened by the Israeli campaign in Gaza and Lebanon, and Russia distracted in Ukraine, Erdogan saw an opportunity to force the Syrian leader to the table.
The rebels’ whirlwind success came as a surprise. Now, Assad is out of the picture altogether, and Erdogan is getting ready to cash in on his years-long investment in the Syrian opposition. Iran and Russia—Turkey’s main rivals in Syria—are chastened; a friendly government could soon be set up in Damascus, ready to welcome back refugees; and Assad’s departure could even open a window for remaining U.S. troops to leave, fulfilling a long-sought goal of Ankara’s. If it can avoid the potential dangers ahead, Turkey could end up a clear winner in Syria’s civil war.
Obviously Israel is one of the immediate winners; the Lebensraum advocates are already grabbing Syrian territory in the name of “self-defense”. But I’m not certain that convincing the rest of the world that any accommodation with the USA is impossible is likely to benefit the Netanhayu regime in the intermediate term.
Also, at some point, the Turkish desire for an Ottoman revival and Israeli dreams of a Greater Israeli Empire are bound to collide. And the numbers would appear to favor the Turks.
Simplicius contemplates the lessons to be learned from the collapse of Syria and cites five lessons that the Russians should take from it.
FIVE LESSONS FOR RUSSIA
Doom and gloom are somewhat appropriate, but it is more important to think about the future now. What does the fall of Syria tell us?
The most important lesson, of course, is to stop trusting to agreements with the agreement-incapable. The second-most important lesson is to recognize that every state and entity controlled by Clown World is agreement-incapable.
Andrei Martyanov’s citation of a Russian journalist helps explain why the Russians finally stopped protecting the Assad regime in Syria:
I do not feel sorry for the Syrian authorities. I remember too well how, back in 2012, we, Russian journalists, were “squeezed” at border control, with all our luggage turned inside out, and our cameras and photo cameras confiscated. Then they hounded us around the offices of various ministries, putting us through an unsolvable puzzle of obtaining various papers and permits. And Western reporters were practically carried around in their arms, trying to demonstrate their liberal views against the backdrop of the uprising in Daraa. These are not my personal grievances. This, among other things, was an expression of their attitude towards my country. Condescending, with rolled eyes and a disdainfully raised upper lip. Then we saved Syria in 2013, if anyone doesn’t remember. Obama was going to cover it with carpet bombing after the chemical provocation in Eastern Ghouta. And thanks to the efforts of Russian diplomacy, the catastrophe was averted. Postponed, as it turns out now. In 2015, we came to Assad’s aid again when the terrorists were five kilometers from the center of Damascus. And as best we could, we patched up this patchwork quilt, consisting of various religious, social, forbidden and not so forbidden pieces, between which contradictions grew.
Now Israel and Turkey will divide up whatever parts of the country ISIS-HTS are not allowed to keep. It appears the US military is already bombing their jihadist proxy army; one wonders how it is going to respond to the Turkish invasion of Kurdistan.
I would also keep an eye out for similarly sudden events in Ukraine; Martyanov and others believe Russia dropping its support for the Assad regime was traded for US dropping its support for the Kiev regime and that this was not necessarily the win for Clown World that it appears to be.
In an effective demonstration of its global influence, Clown World’s jihadist proxies managed to take Syria in less than two weeks.
Hayat Tahrir-al-Sham (HTS) jihadists and other anti-government militias entered Damascus on Saturday, taking control over the Syrian capital. Flight data websites show that President Bashar Assad’s plane has left the city. Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad al-Jalali has already offered cooperation “with any leadership chosen by the people,” also claiming that he remains in his home.
HTS, a group led by a former Al-Qaeda commander and previously known as Jabhat al-Nusra, launched a surprise offensive from the opposition-held province of Idlib in northern Syria just last week. Jihadists have already driven the Syrian Army from the cities of Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and Al-Qusayr at the border with Lebanon.
Other opposition and militant groups operating in Syria also seized several parts of the country. The US-sponsored Free Syrian Army (FSA) has taken control of the ancient site of Palmyra, while the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) also backed by the US have seized Deir ez-Zor.
This is a reminder of Moshe Dayan’s explanation of Israel’s military success: they fight Arabs. Russia didn’t offer much assistance; as Andrei Martyanov pointed out, there is no point in assisting those who will not fight for themselves, a lesson that Americans and Europeans should keep in mind as they meekly submit to the invasion of their various countries.
This is obviously an attempt to secure a bargaining chip in the aftermath of the failure of the Kursk invasion, and Russia’s inaction makes sense in light of its attempt to avoid the full-blown hot war with the West that Clown World is seeking to ignite prior to January 20th. Even so, it is a moderately astonishing shuffle of the deck that no one was expecting.
It also shows the unpredictability of the Turks, who were seemingly cozying up to BRICS and moving away from NATO, but apparently whatever price they were demanding for their cooperation was finally deemed worth paying. Presumably they will be rewarded with the Syrian territory they have been craving in order to completely control Kurdistan, as part of what is described as “a devil’s bargain”.
A truly seismic change in the Middle East appears to be happening very fast. At its heart is a devil’s bargain – Turkey and the Gulf States accept the annihilation of the Palestinian nation and creation of a Greater Israel, in return for the annihilation of the Shia minorities of Syria and Lebanon and the imposition of Salafism across the Eastern Arab world.
This sort of thing is why it is totally pointless to attempt to predict geopolitics. There are always additional factors and variables that one does not know to enter into the equation.
UPDATE: The Russians have confirmed a) Assad has been deposed and b) Russia is maintaining its military bases in Syria.
The Russian Foreign Ministry has confirmed that Bashar Assad has stepped down as Syrian president and left the country following negotiations with armed opposition groups after the fall of Damascus to Islamist forces. In a statement issued on Telegram on Sunday afternoon, officials clarified that Moscow was not involved in the talks but acknowledged Assad’s decision to transfer power “peacefully.” “Russian military bases in Syria are on high alert. At present, there is no serious threat to their security,” the statement read.
In the unlikely event that you haven’t understood that WWIII began in February 2022, the conquest of Syria should make it clear that this is, indeed, the case.
This may be one of the worst technological developments for humanity since gunpowder:
This is the type of AI that all leading experts have warned us about. German defense firm Helsing has announced it will provide Ukraine with 4,000 HX-2 “Karma” kamikaze drones this month. Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said he had been “very pleased that the delivery of these drones equipped with artificial intelligence (AI) technology is already underway.”
With a top speed of 137 mph, these drones are capable of traveling up to 62 miles and can be loaded with various warheads for maximum destruction against armored vehicles, buildings, or platoons. The company states that these drones do not need a human operator, rather, they will be programmed to “search for, re-identify, and engage targets, even without a signal or a continuous data connection.” A human operator may “stay in the loop,” per the company’s messaging, but these weapons are designed to act autonomously.
“With HX-2, we have created a new smart effector that combines mass, autonomy and precision. Individual HX-2s can reliably engage armored targets in highly contested environments. When deployed along borders at scale, HX-2 can serve as a powerful counter invasion shield against enemy land forces,” Helsing’s co-founder Niklas Köhler stated. The other co-founder, Gundbert Scherf, said that NATO in particular has been eager for this technology. On one hand, the company says that these drones will retain human oversight, but on the other hand, the entire purpose of their design is to be autonomous.
Forget all the Skynet possibilities. Begun the Hacker Wars have. The easiest and most effective way to combat AI-controlled drone swarms is by putting a backdoor in the manufacturing process and giving yourself the ability to take control of them. And the utility of these autonomous killer drones in repressing civilian populations is obvious; combined with facial recognition technology it could be used to deny any movement to persons deemed undeniable.
It is informative that while knives are being banned by governments, this sort of lethal weaponry continues to be legally developed. Of course, civilians are going to acquire it too, which should make for a very interesting arms race.
But if they’re actually being used on Russian troops, I definitely wouldn’t want to be working in a Helsing factory. Or at their corporate HQ. I can’t imagine they would not be a priority on the Russian target list.
If the events in the Middle East cause China to begin intervening with its military on behalf of its friends and allies, that is seriously going to alter the geopolitical math in that region.
China is “deeply concerned” about developments in Syria, where jihadist militants launched a surprise offensive last week, Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said on Monday. As Damascus’ “friend,” Beijing is prepared to take steps to prevent a further deterioration of the situation, he said.
The Hayat Tahrir-al-Sham (HTS) terrorist group, formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra, and allied militias launched a large-scale attack on government-controlled territory in northern Syria last Wednesday. The militants took over a number of towns and villages in the Aleppo, Idlib and Hama provinces.
Syrian government forces, backed by Russian fighter jets, launched a counteroffensive on Thursday and successfully liberated several settlements over the weekend, reportedly eliminating hundreds of militants and thwarting their advance into central Syria. However, dozens of Syrian army service members were lost amid the heavy fighting, the Syrian General Command said in an earlier statement.
“China is deeply concerned over the situation in northwestern Syria, and supports its effort to uphold national security and stability,” Lin told a press briefing on Monday. “As Syria’s friend, China is willing to make an active effort to avoid further deterioration of the situation in Syria,” the official said.
China has the manpower to swamp every other military; the Red Army is an order of magnitude larger than anything currently in seen in the Ukrainian front, which is itself two orders of magnitude larger than the conflict in the Middle East.
We appear to be rapidly approaching hitherto-unimaginable levels of Fuck Around and Find Out.
UPDATE: Speaking of FAFO, China is also ready for the trade war too.
China announced Tuesday it is banning exports to the United States of gallium, germanium, antimony and other key high-tech materials with potential military applications, as a general principle, lashing back at U.S. limits on semiconductor-related exports… China is the biggest global source of gallium and germanium, which are produced in small amounts but are needed to make computer chips for mobile phones, cars and other products, as well as solar panels and military technology.
The neoclowns are up to their usual shenanigans in another country that borders on Russia, led by a French diplomat who somehow managed to get elected President and, like Zelensky in Ukraine, is now refusing to step down when her term comes to an end.
Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili will not step down from her position despite the end of her mandate in December, she said in a video address on Saturday, explaining that she does not recognize the legitimacy of the newly-formed parliament and intends to stay in office until new elections.
“I remain your President! There is no legitimate parliament that will elect a new president,” she said in a video published on her Facebook page. “My mandate continues until there is a legitimately elected parliament that will legitimately elect a President who will replace me!”
Under the 2017 Georgian Constitution, the head of state is elected by an electoral college consisting of 300 members. Half of them are MPs, and another half are representatives of various Georgian regions. The next presidential vote is scheduled for December 14. Whoever wins is reportedly expected to be inaugurated before the end of the year.
In October, the South Caucasus nation also held parliamentary elections. The Georgian Dream party, which seeks to establish pragmatic relations with all the country’s neighbors, including Russia, emerged victorious with nearly 54% of the vote. The pro-Western opposition parties have refused to recognize the results, sparking a wave of street protests.
The French-born Zourabichvili – a career diplomat for Paris who acquired Georgian citizenship in her 50s – condemned the October election as a “Russian-style” operation, claiming that Georgian Dream is steering the nation towards Moscow and away from that of the EU. She also called for mass protests. A new wave of demonstrations was sparked this week by the Georgian government’s decision to suspend EU accession talks until 2028.
It’s all so tiresome. Once more, we see how genuine what passes for Western “democracy” is; it is now abundantly clear that it is nothing more than rhetoric meant to hide the fact that global satanists are controlling the government under a very thin veil of the supposed “will of the people” which just happens to be directly opposed to the genuine will of the people as expressed by the populist parties.
However, the world has changed since 2005 and the Orange Revolution in Ukraine that brought that tragic country into neoclown control. Even if the Georgian people are sufficiently hoodwinked to abandon their nationalists, there is no way that Russia is going to permit another NATO catspaw on its borders.
Simplicius summarizes the current stage of US-Russian pre-negotiations for NATO’s surrender in Ukraine.
The long-awaited plans we’ve theorized and brainstormed on since last year are finally resolving into view, where the West believes they can freeze the war Korean-DMZ style then insert their occupation KFOR troops to make sure Russia can never take Odessa, etc. As we said last time, they are even considering outlandishly absurd contortions to satisfy Putin’s demands, such as ‘stationing the bulk of the Ukrainian army somewhere in Europe’ in order to fulfill the “demilitarization” goals as per Putin’s Istanbul negotiations, which stated what Ukraine was allowed to have “on its territory”, technically speaking.
The problem is, Russia is in the driver’s seat and will not indulge such petty attempts to cozen and wheedle out a minor victory for Ukraine. As such, the only danger we can now expect is for the West to escalate in some brazen way should they finally realize Russia is not taking the bait. But we know neutered Europe has no political authority or consensus to act unilaterally, and at this point can only function like a pack of hyenas, if other major European states back each other’s ‘daring’ initiative…
The fact is though, the longer the Ukrainian conflict goes on, the closer the European Union comes to the verge of collapse. The conflict is outright killing Europe by exposing its bought-off treasonous leaders as the populace-hating cretins they are, causing mass discontent and political breakdown, spurring revolutionary new impulses which will soon bulge out the foundation’s cracks.
I suspect that Russia will have to destroy an American base in Europe or two with non-nuclear Oreshniks before President Trump utilizes the financial corruption and the misuse of US aid funds to provide him with political cover to cut off Ukraine and Europe alike. NATO will die of its own accord as soon as the US stops funding it, and the EU will be more focused on its own survival as a smaller supranational organization when Hungary and other member-nations start leaving it.
There isn’t going to be any US nuclear response to Russia no matter what Russia does in Europe, because no American has any interest in dying for the Europeans who can’t even bother to defend themselves. America has its own issues with its tens of millions of invaders, and is far more concerned about the global challenge posed by China than the return of historic norms in Europe. Which means that despite all the neocon bluster, Russia is ultimately free to act in its own interests; there is no economic incentive that the West can offer that Russia will be short-sighted enough to believe is either real or meaningful in the aftermath of the 13 rounds of economic sanctions and financial theft.
President Trump is under considerable pressure to figure out a way to rescue the Ukrainian rump state, but he’s more interested in the Middle East. So all of the various factors point to the USA abandoning Ukraine, the EU governments collapsing as they eventually follow suit, and Russia finally imposing its solution on whatever government succeeds the corrupt Zelensky regime in Ukraine.
Which, tragically, is the outcome that was inevitable nearly three years and one million Ukrainian lives ago.