Tag: war

The Return of the Mercenary

Which raises the natural question: if mercenaries are back, is the return of the City-State next?

At my Australian High School, there was a weekly assembly of all students and time was always set aside for us to sing the national anthem. Yet almost no one sung it. Some would mouth it, others hum, while many did nothing at all. At most someone would start to sing it, lasting about 10 seconds before folding back into the hum. The only exception was our principal, who had served in the military. Even he struggled, and not for lack of memory of the lifeless lyrics, but in the battle against the apathy of everyone around him. This is emblematic of the loss of national consciousness that has occurred in Western countries, though I doubt we Westerners are the only ones. The loss of national consciousness makes the current political order and all others that have been seen since the French Revolution untenable. German-speakers of the 13th century cannot fight for anything but God, family, their local lord or money. The national consciousness simply does not exist.

Shortages of military recruits is a common problem to many Western countries. Despite generally offering salaries + benefits equal to or in excess of what would be found in private industry for an average young man there is a deficit of applicants. The flag simply isn’t motivating enough to die for anymore. This calls in to question the viability of even the professionalised state militaries that are supposed to fight the post-Vietnam Cabinet’s War. Indeed, the United States has been afflicted with an enduring shortage of recruits, this is despite replacing much of their front-line soldiers with mercenaries (Private Military Contractors). The significance of the use of mercenaries can be most clearly seen through their share of total combat deaths. As of 2020, total US military service-member (government soldier) fatalities in Iraq numbered at 4586, while total Private Military Contractor fatalities in Iraq numbered at least 3413. So as at least 43% of total American fatalities in Iraq were American Private Military Contractors. 2009 was the point when American Private Military Contractor fatalities year-on-year surpassed those of US government soldiers. Such a ratio of mercenary to state soldier fatalities in an army is more reminiscent of a medieval campaign than what would have been considered a “modern” war for the last 250 years.


Any attempt to fight the long-term trend of neomedievalism by forcible conscription will end as Vietnam ended. Additionally, any attempt to “change the culture” to get more volunteers will have the same effect as my school principal awkwardly singing the national anthem. The pressure or emotion to “answer the call” of the nation-state has been lost due to multiple factors. The key complaint is “what are we fighting for”. It’s an important one. What precisely a Brit, Australian, Frenchman, American, Canadian etc. is has lost much definition since the end of World War 2, particularly in the last 40 years. Intra-country political and ethno-religious differences now trump inter-country hatred. People also do not trust the media as they once did, so the media does not have a monopoly on truth which it once had. Use of the media is a crucial tool in rallying the masses for secular wars, without it the need for coercion multiplies. Coercion, which the outcome of Vietnam in the United States showed cannot be supplied. I don’t think that there is anything that would cause majority of Western male Zoomers to be out on the streets protesting, rioting or otherwise actively resisting the government; with the sole exception of military conscription to a war. Gen Alpha will be much the same.

Somehow, I don’t think neo-medievalism and all of the incumbent serfdom was what most people had in mind when they bought into the lies of Clown World.

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Sanctioning the Wrong Side

President Trump has completely failed to address the war in Ukraine in an appropriate manner capable of bringing it to an end, and now we’re back to the failed neocon strategies of the past:

The US has finalized a new set of economic sanctions targeting Russia as leverage to force Moscow to settle the Ukraine conflict, Reuters reported on Friday, citing several sources. It remains unclear, however, whether US President Donald Trump will approve the measures.

Earlier media reports suggested that Trump has not ruled out the sanctions if a ceasefire is not reached soon. On Monday, Moscow offered a 72-hour ceasefire from May 8 to 10, portraying the initiative as a chance to begin “direct negotiations with Kiev without preconditions.” Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky dismissed the overture as “manipulation,” insisting on a 30-day truce.

The targets of the new sanctions under discussion include state-owned Russian energy giant Gazprom and major entities involved in the natural resources and banking sectors, an administration official told the agency, without providing specifics.

Apparently the USA remains agreement-incapable under President Trump. At some point, Washington is going to realize that its rhetoric is no longer capable of reshaping reality, and that sanctions will never have the desired effect on major powers. But today is not that day.

If President Trump wants to end the war, he would do much, much better to sanction Ukraine and the EU.

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Russia Ready for NATO

An explanation for the huge increase in troops being mobilized and new arms being produced that have not shown up on the front lines is finally explained by Russia’s preparations for a direct confrontation with NATO:

The U.S. estimates that around 30,000 Russians are signing up each month, up from about 25,000 last summer. Some Eastern European intelligence officials say the ranks are now swelling by some 40,000 soldiers a month. The extra manpower has allowed the military to rotate new troops in and out of Ukraine, and to build new units trained and housed in Russia, according to some European intelligence assessments.

So, not only do they confirm that Russia is regenerating 30,000 men per month, and even 40,000 according to some sources, but the biggest bombshell of all is made which fully redeems my reporting over the past year and a half: Russia is siphoning some of the newly recruited troops into new units stationed in the rear of Russia proper; i.e. reserves.

This should once and for all conclusively put to bed theories around where the Russian 30k+ monthly troops are going: a portion is replenishing hard losses, a portion replacing contract non-renewals, and a portion is going directly to the rear to stand up new armies meant to prepare Russia for a much bigger clash against NATO proper…

And if they do fight NATO, they’ll do so with more than 200,000 North Korean troops fighting with them.

“Our source reports that DPRK soldiers will take part in the war on Ukrainian territory (previously they fought only in the Kursk region) if Trump’s peace case stalls. The source points out that if the war escalates, then by the end of the year more than two hundred thousand North Korean soldiers will be fighting in the ranks of the Russian Armed Forces using their own equipment. Such an “infusion” threatens the collapse of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ defense.

President Trump would do very well to put leashes and muzzles on Kiev, Brussels, and most of the European leaders and force a peace settlement to Russia’s liking or Russia is going to simply decide the fate of Europe without any input from the USA or anyone else.

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The Lessons of War

North Korean troops have gained valuable combat experience in Russia, while NATO simply refuses to admit that it needs to learn anything despite the changing face of the battlefield:

I saw these guys several times in business. And every time I caught myself thinking that they were preparing for another war. Which looked a little strange. Still, North Korea is a military state. For 70 years they have been de facto at war. Huge budget funds go on national defense, and a meeting with the Ukrainian army made Koreans think and reconsider their views on the war.

Very soon, they realized that you can’t stumble, and attacking with a line is not a good idea. And they heard the REB and the UAV, but they did not understand the true meaning.

Once again, I note that in order to learn from the war, you need to lose your soldiers on the battlefield. Koreans have paid their price and will now process this valuable experience. Commanders mouths grow to the generals. And all their careers they will remember the nasty buzzing of the FPV drones, and will do everything to minimize their threat.

All military personnel of this world are watching the SVO. But true conclusions will be available to only a few. Most will make decisions based on objective control materials and dry intelligence reports. And I am sure that most generals will not be able to draw the right conclusions from the experience of the SVO. Which, however, is in our hands. The time is now dashing, and only a few armies can boast of combat experience.

There is an old saying that generals always prepare for the previous war. Which is why the US military is mostly geared up for police occupations and counter-insurgency operations. Neither it nor any of the European militaries are even remotely ready for a war with Russia, with or without popular support.

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Krynky was a British Op

In case you weren’t entirely sure that any EU/UK attempt to continue a war with Russia will be a complete disaster, it turns out that the appallingly stupid attempt to recreate the Battle of the Bulge in Krynky was planned and operated by the British military:

On the morning of October 30 2023, dozens of Ukrainian commandos on small boats glided across the Dnieper River to control of Krynky, a village in Russian-occupied Kherson. They had spent the prior two months in remote areas of the British isles with similar terrain, running drills under the watchful gaze of UK generals. Now, they believed their hard work was about to pay off. Both British and Ukrainian officials were convinced the operation would turn the tide of the war, creating a beachhead allowing Kiev’s forces to march on Crimea and all-out victory.

Instead, the British-trained Ukrainian marines were led like lambs to the slaughter. The catastrophically planned effort saw a seemingly endless stream of heavily overloaded Ukrainian boats attempt to reach Krynky without air cover, under relentless fire by Russian artillery, drones, flamethrowers and mortars. Marines that made the journey were ill-equipped, resupplying those troops proved virtually impossible, and evacuating them was out of the question.

As the promised missile cover failed to materialize in the ensuing weeks, it became clear the effort had amounted to a disaster. Yet for the next nine months, wave after wave of British-trained Ukrainian marines were dispatched to almost certain death to Krynky. The decision to let the costly quagmire drag on, at a human and material cost no NATO military would ever allow, has come to be seen as one of the worst tactical mistakes of the war — and it appears top British generals are to blame.

Leaked documents reviewed by The Grayzone expose how the British not only presided over the training of the Marines involved, but built from scratch the “Maritime Raiding Force” which would ultimately be sacrificed over the course of the Krynky suicide mission.

The British have been militarily hopeless for centuries. The only reason they weren’t conquered and occupied by Napoleon and by Hitler was the English Channel and the Royal Navy. And now, they can’t even keep out unarmed Africans and Arabs on rubber rafts.

But they’re going to fight Russia? Even after launching an invasion that didn’t get anywhere near its objectives? I’d give better odds to Cuba attacking the United States.

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Russia Has Allies Too

In fact, Russia’s North Korean ally alone outnumbers the entire combined forces of the various militaries of the European Union member states, and its forces are actively involved in the fighting.

Until now, Russia has neither confirmed nor denied the presence of DPRK troops on the front line. We are not obliged to inform anyone, in fact. This is a matter of bilateral relations and agreements. Meanwhile, Korean units gradually began to arrive in Russia during the Kursk epic.

At first, they were trained at training grounds, familiarized themselves with modern combat tactics, mastered drone control skills, and became familiar with field realities. Then the “combat Buryats,” as our military jokingly and for the sake of secrecy called them, were transferred to the Kursk region. They lived in field conditions so as not to “show off.” At first, they held the third line, then the second, then they were tested in fortifications and, finally, in assaults.

The Korean soldiers distinguished themselves with their coherence, discipline, fatal disregard for death and remarkable endurance. It is understandable – they are mostly young guys, strong, pumped up and well trained in their homeland. Especially their units of the Special Operations Forces. The allies made a great contribution to the liberation of the Korenevsky district, and in the battles near Staraya and Novaya Sorochiny, and in the breakthrough to Kurilovka… They had a strict rule – not to be captured alive. And not to surrender voluntarily.

I suspect the announcement was made in order to make it clear to both Washington as well as Brussels, Berlin, and Paris that the European Union has absolutely no chance of helping Ukraine prevent a Russian victory, with or without US military assistance.

North Korea not only has more troops, but it now has more veteran troops with actual fighting experience on the modern European battlefield than the USA or any European state other than Ukraine.

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You Don’t Get What You Pay For

Mercenary companies always sound very impressive. G4S is the flavor of the day, apparently

With roughly 800,000 employees, G4S maintains its own rapid response units – essentially private strike teams supported by in-house intelligence operations. Many Western PMCs now have access to reconnaissance aircraft, satellite data, and cutting-edge surveillance tools. “They work with corporations that provide satellite imagery, which has been used by PMCs in Africa, Iraq, and Afghanistan,” Todorovski explains.

Alexander Artemonov, a defense analyst at the Eurasia Heritage Foundation, estimates G4S maintains a fighting force of 250,000–280,000, equal to the number of troops Russia deployed in Donbass. The rest of the workforce consists of support staff, prison guards, and logistical teams.

G4S’s arsenal includes everything from AK-47s and Glock 17s to MP5s, sniper rifles, Uzi submachine guns, and even Israeli Hermes 450 drones. Their operatives have access to anti-personnel mines, grenade launchers, and portable anti-air systems. For mobility, they rely on armored Land Cruisers, Humvees, and military-grade carriers like the Cougar and RG-33.

“Mercenaries and auxiliaries are useless and dangerous; and if one holds his state based on these arms, he will stand neither firm nor safe” – Niccolo Machiavelli

As Machiavelli pointed out in his works, mercenaries are actually good at one thing and one thing only: getting paid. They’re not getting paid to fight and die, they’re getting paid to put on a good show and provide deterrence. The ideal mercenary operation is to get paid to defend a location or an individual, deter any attacks from taking place, and go home considerably richer in return for doing nothing.

It’s when they actually have to deliver results that mercenaries tend to show their true colors, as G4S already has:

G4S has also assumed control of prison facilities traditionally run by governments. In the UK, the company managed two immigration detention centers and six prisons, including those in Oakwood and Birmingham. In 2018, the Birmingham facility was returned to government control after inspectors uncovered appalling conditions: inmates roamed freely while staff locked themselves in offices; cells were filthy, infested with rats, and reeked of bodily fluids.

If they can’t manage a prison successfully, what are the odds that they’re even going to show up to fight Russian regulars?

Some might point to the successful use of the Wagner Company by Russia in the Donbass. But first, they were more convict conscripts than mercenaries proper, second, they were utilized as urban warfare cannon fodder, and third, they too showed the expected lack of reliability when Prigozhin staged the short-lived revolt against Moscow that ended his career with an accidentation.

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Walking Away is the Right Move

There are various reports that President Trump is rapidly approaching acceptance of the fact that he cannot dictate peace terms to either Russia or Clown World:

The United States will tell both Ukraine and Russia that the US recommends the following to achieve peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict:

1) Ukraine must agree to a ceasefire, right now.

2) Ukraine and Russia MUST begin direct negotiations with each other

3) Crimea is now Russian territory

4) The areas of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporozhye that are under Russian control, will remain Russian.

5) Ukraine cannot and will not EVER join NATO.

6) If the two sides agree, the US will remove all anti-Russian economic sanctions

7) If the two sides do not agree, the United States will walk-away from the peace process.

I don’t think that either Russia or the Kiev regime will accept those terms. Russia wants Odessa and the full territories of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporozhye, and it is within their power to achieve those things without reaching an agreement with anyone. The Kiev regime wants to continue collecting revenue while killing as many young Russians and Ukrainians as possible. A better move would have been for Trump to give Russia whatever it wants in return for imposing peace on the Kiev regime and the various Clown World regimes, since either way, he’s going to end up walking away and dropping all support for Kiev.

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Pay Now or Pay More Later

The Chinese Global Times points out some of the obstacles that are facing the USA’s attempt to bring back the semiconductor industry:

The substantial losses incurred by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co’s (TSMC) factory in the US state of Arizona illustrate both the consequences of ignoring market logic and the deep-seated difficulties the US faces in its attempt to forcibly restructure global semiconductor supply chains through political intervention. TSMC’s Arizona facility incurred a staggering loss of nearly NT$14.3 billion ($441 million) in 2024, the largest loss since the establishment of the US factory, Taiwan-based media outlet Economic Daily News reported on Monday, citing TSMC’s latest Annual General Meeting Report to shareholders. By contrast, TSMC’s factory in Nanjing, East China’s Jiangsu Province earned nearly NT$26 billion last year.

This financial disparity goes beyond a simple comparison of operational efficiency; it underscores the challenges of replicating TSMC’s traditional profitability model in the US, a market plagued by high costs and a fragmented supply chain.

TSMC’s Arizona struggles were predictable. It is no secret that the decision to build chip manufacturing plants in the US was never driven by commercial viability but by geopolitical pressure under the CHIPS Act. There are multiple causes for TSMC’s losses in Arizona. While the site has been in volume production since late 2024, the trajectory of financial deficits indicates that its problems are not temporary. 

A key factor is the disruption of the supply, industry and market chains. The semiconductor industry is a highly complex and intricate system where upstream and downstream companies are closely interdependent.  While the US excels in chip design, it lags significantly behind Asia, especially East Asia, in terms of the complete supply chain needed for manufacturing. TSMC’s Arizona factory relies heavily on importing key components and raw materials, which not only drives up logistics costs but also extends the supply cycle. Any hiccup in the supply chain can lead to production standstills.

All of these issues, problems, and challenges are real. And yet, what is the alternative? There is no alternative, unless the USA is willing to become dependent upon either a self-reliant USSR or the global manufacturing giant China for all of its digital devices?

The point is not efficiency or minimum cost; it’s the misplaced focus on efficiency and lowered costs that created this dilemma for the USA in the first place. The point is national sovereignty, particularly when war is increasingly going to be decided by large-scale high-tech drone manufacturing. It’s important to take market logic into account, but it’s even more important to avoid confusing market logic with national best interest.

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Clown World Fears Peace

The hypocrisy of Clown World truly knows no ends. For decades, we’ve been instructed that land mines are one of the worst sins of Man, and the European governments have sanctimoniously engaged in numerous demining campaigns in Asia and Africa. But now, without so much as any threats from Russia, a number of European governments have announced intentions of mining their borders.

They’re showing similar hypocrisy in their relentless attempts to disrupt the peace talks between Russia and the USA.

Numerous foreign actors are attempting to sabotage the dialogue between Moscow and Washington, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s investment envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, has claimed. Speaking to reporters on Thursday, Dmitriev weighed in on his talks with US President Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, in St. Petersburg last week, which focused on finding a settlement to the Ukraine conflict.

Dmitriev called the negotiations “extremely productive,” but claimed that third parties are trying to impede progress. “A lot of people, structures, and countries are trying to disrupt our dialogue with the United States,” he said.

“There is a very active propaganda campaign against Russia in the United States through various media, so it’s very important to communicate Russia’s position directly – and this has certainly been done,” Dmitriev noted. “There is a very useful dialogue going on. It is certainly going on in very difficult conditions – constant attacks and constant misinformation,” he said.

Americans are not going to fight on behalf of Europeans again. It’s just not going to happen. The sooner that everyone from the Baltic to the Middle East realizes that the US military is not going to protect them from anyone or anything, the better.

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